Is it time to panic yet?

[GTopCheese]

With Hartnell out....yup. Hopefully we just let the season ride out and don't do anything stupid.

 

[RoDu]

I wouldn't even get a new coach if at all until next year, with such a tight schedule, it will be hard to have time to practice to implement a new system

 

[RoDu]

Is Van going to amnesty Luongo, otherwise not worth a sixth rounder

 

[Beef Invictus]

That's not entirely correct. BSH has made the point numerous times that Carle was actually better without Pronger. Last year, the list of defensemen with 35 points and 100 blocked shots is as follows: Matt Carle. End of list.

He only looked better because he's incapable of handling top 6 forwards, which he faced with Pronger. Usually when he was without Pronger he wasn't facing hard competition, which boosted his stats. When you consider his quality of comp was lower, that's not impressive.

He is ideally a 2/3. It may be complimentary, but it's still pretty damn important.

It is. But only if he's paired with a true number 1 or strong partner. He can't carry a load himself, and for that reason he's not worth the cap hit he got.

Coburn played with Timonen most of the year (Carle being most of what isn't most of), while Carle got to play with Marc-Andre Bourdon, seen as having been admirable as a replacement-level player. And Bourdon may be a bit better than that, I'd say he deserves the opportunty, but he can't get on the ice, so it's irrelevant at the time. However, that's going to affect the QoT, and no defenseman had a better 5v5 QoT than Coburn. That's not to say that he isn't good, but he was in position to look better offensively. Carle had to make sure a rookie defensemen didn't fail all over himself.

Interestingly, as I recall those rookie defenseman had higher GFon/60 than Carle. On top of that, I showed in the offseason that the team overall produced LESS goals while Carle was on the ice. However, by virtue of getting lots of ice time from necessity and giving the puck to a lot of hot players, his numbers get boosted. Like I said, his complete lack of threatening shot made him very easy to defend. If he shoots it's usually an easy block or a save resulting in a FO the Flyers lost more often than not. So, take away pass lanes and you contain him and take away offensive potential. It happened nearly all year, repeatedly. By the end of the year he was rarely able to pass to anyone but the near winger or partner, teams knew how to contain him.

Carle had a better 5v5 P/60 than Coburn, the big difference being 5v5 A2/60. Only Giroux had a better 5v5 A2/60 rate on the whole team, and he was 2nd in the league in (total) assists. Carle was 7th in the league in 5v5 A2/60 among defensemen >50GP.

See the above.

Now, it's all well and good if they were replacing Carle's minutes and production with someone. Luke Schenn is close on A2/60 (best defenseman on the Leafs), but he had sheltered minutes for the most part, and played for the Leafs, so he was still not very good. The other issue is what you're still trying to replace Pronger, too. Weber would have been worth in that role, but he's not here. So, now you're trying to hope Foster and Schenn combine to not be an abject failure in it.

The way I see it Schenn mostly replaces Carle, while having more long term upside. The downside is that he certainly doesn't replace Pronger, and we're left in a situation where a guy might be in over his head. So far EVERYONE is in over their head so I can't tell yet.

The next man up is Gustafsson. Gus has been referred to as Timonen's eventual replacement, but I think that's a little too ambitious. Enough people here think their dog would be a better defenseman than Carle, but the guy who was to replace his minutes isn't currently on the roster. That's sort of the core issue here, because that's the role set up for him, and not only is he not here to serve it, but he was also replaced on the roster. And the team seemed content having Bruno Gervais take his spot. Gus' numbers reek of favorable puck luck despite having the best GF ON/60, his On Ice S% was almost 12% last year (obscene), while Kubina and Coburn were the only other ones above 9% (while Coburn was more than 1.5% better than Carle - and that's excluding all of Carle's blocked shots).

Agreed there. I'm still not sold on Gus, but the team could badly use him just for his puck moving abilities.

They've replaced a 20-minute defenseman with nobody. For a team that needs a defensemen. He is only one man, but I bet the majority of people in this thread who are entertaining panic mode are the same people who celebrated Carle's departure. You want, you got it. We're chasing defensemen not available via trade, firing the coach, and entertaining the thought of Seth Jones going to another team because someone else won the draft lottery.

I think Schenn is meant to replace Carle's minutes. Most of his minutes were spent against the lower talent, with Timonen and Coburn pulling the heavier competition. I think this D is perfectly capable of covering the bottom 6 of any team. With Coburn crapping the bed and Timonen looking past his age we can't cover top 6 though.

Either way, Carle wouldn't have been the solution on this team without having Weber to put him next to. I doubt anything would be different. We might be better at getting out of the zone...but then what? He's still amazingly easy to defend. There's no reason to believe the team would suddenly be generating more offense with him on the ice, when overall they generated less while he was playing. Again, all that extra ice time due to injuries artificially boosted his totals. His one dimensional play in the offensive zone goes far to neutralize the benefit we get from his breakout passing.

And yeah. It's truly not likely we're getting Jones, especially since they expanded the lottery if I'm not mistaken.

Edit: It's also completely possible they turn things around, too.

 

[sa cyred]

Simmonds-Giroux-Voracek
Read-Couturier-Feds
McGinn-Laughton-Talbot
Sesitito-Wellwood-Shelly

Yes, may be time to worry ABIT.

 

[funghoul]

we aint done. and carla still sucks. Now THATS a waste of a cap hit. yzerman's worst signing to date. if anyone should be fired, its him. but we've looked pretty damn good minus the goals in these games. pitt, buffalo, and a period and 1/2 of new jersey. the final scores are horrible but you've all seen the goals that these teams have scored. hopefully we got all our crap bounces out of the way early. lavi just needs to keep em believing. confidence can be devastation. holmgren is a good G.M. he won't get fired. you can see what he's trying to do. it's not his fault and laviolettes system is still valid now. nothings changes. they've played long stretches were we dominate and should've gotten at least a goal or two and just didn't. that will not last much longer. NO PANIC!

 

[4thline4life]

Why not flip read and Simmonds or voracek. And least he has somewhat decent hands and a shot. I can just picture tomorrow g settin up Simmonds and stone hands messing it up. I like simmer but he's not top line imo.

 

[funghoul]

JVR just scored. son of a Bick!

 

[Jack Straw]

That's not entirely correct. BSH has made the point numerous times that Carle was actually better without Pronger. Last year, the list of defensemen with 35 points and 100 blocked shots is as follows: Matt Carle. End of list.

He is ideally a 2/3. It may be complimentary, but it's still pretty damn important.

Coburn played with Timonen most of the year (Carle being most of what isn't most of), while Carle got to play with Marc-Andre Bourdon, seen as having been admirable as a replacement-level player. And Bourdon may be a bit better than that, I'd say he deserves the opportunty, but he can't get on the ice, so it's irrelevant at the time. However, that's going to affect the QoT, and no defenseman had a better 5v5 QoT than Coburn. That's not to say that he isn't good, but he was in position to look better offensively. Carle had to make sure a rookie defensemen didn't fail all over himself.

Carle had a better 5v5 P/60 than Coburn, the big difference being 5v5 A2/60. Only Giroux had a better 5v5 A2/60 rate on the whole team, and he was 2nd in the league in (total) assists. Carle was 7th in the league in 5v5 A2/60 among defensemen >50GP.

Now, it's all well and good if they were replacing Carle's minutes and production with someone. Luke Schenn is close on A2/60 (best defenseman on the Leafs), but he had sheltered minutes for the most part, and played for the Leafs, so he was still not very good. The other issue is what you're still trying to replace Pronger, too. Weber would have been worth in that role, but he's not here. So, now you're trying to hope Foster and Schenn combine to not be an abject failure in it.

The next man up is Gustafsson. Gus has been referred to as Timonen's eventual replacement, but I think that's a little too ambitious. Enough people here think their dog would be a better defenseman than Carle, but the guy who was to replace his minutes isn't currently on the roster. That's sort of the core issue here, because that's the role set up for him, and not only is he not here to serve it, but he was also replaced on the roster. And the team seemed content having Bruno Gervais take his spot. Gus' numbers reek of favorable puck luck despite having the best GF ON/60, his On Ice S% was almost 12% last year (obscene), while Kubina and Coburn were the only other ones above 9% (while Coburn was more than 1.5% better than Carle - and that's excluding all of Carle's blocked shots).

They've replaced a 20-minute defenseman with nobody. For a team that needs a defensemen. He is only one man, but I bet the majority of people in this thread who are entertaining panic mode are the same people who celebrated Carle's departure. You want, you got it. We're chasing defensemen not available via trade, firing the coach, and entertaining the thought of Seth Jones going to another team because someone else won the draft lottery.

Excellent post.

 

[SgtJoseph*]

I gotta wonder how many of you are really Flyers fans ? What ever happened to the spirit of rallying behind the club and hoping our club can work through this and overcome the adversity of a slow start, and dealing with injuries etc instead of trying to blame this or that player or coach.......its a little early for that in my opinion ?

 

[Beef Invictus]

I gotta wonder how many of you are really Flyers fans ? What ever happened to the spirit of rallying behind the club and hoping our club can work through this and overcome the adversity of a slow start, and dealing with injuries etc instead of trying to blame this or that player or coach.......its a little early for that in my opinion ?

Huh? Nobody is enjoying this. The fact that we're all still here supporting the team and hoping they turn it around seems like rallying to me.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

It's crazy how bad of a situation we are in right now... wonder if we can get Nino for cheap?

 

[hckyplayer8]

First win tomorrow. Bank it.

Sestitto GWG.

 

[DrHamburg]

i agree with what your saying except the we got massively outplayed by the devils thing. we didn't. they got some nice lucky bounces. first goal was slapped at the net and stopped like it was a pass an inch from bryz's pads which turned into a deke. that never happens. one was a penalty shot from kovalchuck. come on. we were all over them in the first period. they had like 2 shots. after losing the first two we gave up. our compete level blew from there on in. its turning into a confidence thing now which is the worst kinda thing to deal with. this is were laviolette earns his money. btw, what new york are you? islanders or scum bags? I'm sorry.

noooo! ive been a flyers fan since i was like 8 years old and got my first hockey game and loved hockey ever since. Only have ever been on the flyers boards.

 

[GKJ]

He only looked better because he's incapable of handling top 6 forwards, which he faced with Pronger. Usually when he was without Pronger he wasn't facing hard competition, which boosted his stats. When you consider his quality of comp was lower, that's not impressive.



It is. But only if he's paired with a true number 1 or strong partner. He can't carry a load himself, and for that reason he's not worth the cap hit he got.



Interestingly, as I recall those rookie defenseman had higher GFon/60 than Carle. On top of that, I showed in the offseason that the team overall produced LESS goals while Carle was on the ice. However, by virtue of getting lots of ice time from necessity and giving the puck to a lot of hot players, his numbers get boosted. Like I said, his complete lack of threatening shot made him very easy to defend. If he shoots it's usually an easy block or a save resulting in a FO the Flyers lost more often than not. So, take away pass lanes and you contain him and take away offensive potential. It happened nearly all year, repeatedly. By the end of the year he was rarely able to pass to anyone but the near winger or partner, teams knew how to contain him.



See the above.



The way I see it Schenn mostly replaces Carle, while having more long term upside. The downside is that he certainly doesn't replace Pronger, and we're left in a situation where a guy might be in over his head. So far EVERYONE is in over their head so I can't tell yet.



Agreed there. I'm still not sold on Gus, but the team could badly use him just for his puck moving abilities.



I think Schenn is meant to replace Carle's minutes. Most of his minutes were spent against the lower talent, with Timonen and Coburn pulling the heavier competition. I think this D is perfectly capable of covering the bottom 6 of any team. With Coburn crapping the bed and Timonen looking past his age we can't cover top 6 though.

Either way, Carle wouldn't have been the solution on this team without having Weber to put him next to. I doubt anything would be different. We might be better at getting out of the zone...but then what? He's still amazingly easy to defend. There's no reason to believe the team would suddenly be generating more offense with him on the ice, when overall they generated less while he was playing. Again, all that extra ice time due to injuries artificially boosted his totals. His one dimensional play in the offensive zone goes far to neutralize the benefit we get from his breakout passing.

And yeah. It's truly not likely we're getting Jones, especially since they expanded the lottery if I'm not mistaken.

Edit: It's also completely possible they turn things around, too.

I fail to see how Carle gaining most of his offensive production is one-dimensional. He was more than a quarter-point better at 5v5 P/60 than Coburn, and Carle had so many more shots blocked because he was in position to have shots blocked. Take out blocked shots, and Coburn was better than Carle at Fenwick by a negligible margin.

 

[Broad st phantom]

Kind of confused with what Lavy is supposed to do. He did not have the personnel last season, just managed to get enough offense. Now we've lost offense and replaced it a strategy of 'hope Couturier comes out like gangbusters.'

Losing Carle, (and I've brought this point up a few times), the season hinged on Erik Gustafsson replacing him. He's not even on the team right now, yet behold, we are 0-3.


Lavy's going to get fired because the Shea Weber offer sheet didn't work. That's really what this is going to come down too, because Ed Snider will get too antsy to let this play out.

Sounds like Ed Snider to me and his great redeeming quality of not really thinking situations through.

 

[RoDu]

Didn't Snider say back in like '03 or something they won't be moving the younger players for vets anymore?

 

[Broad st phantom]

Didn't Snider say back in like '03 or something they won't be moving the younger players for vets anymore?

Lets hope so.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I fail to see how Carle gaining most of his offensive production is one-dimensional. He was more than a quarter-point better at 5v5 P/60 than Coburn, and Carle had so many more shots blocked because he was in position to have shots blocked. Take out blocked shots, and Coburn was better than Carle at Fenwick by a negligible margin.

Like I've been saying, Carle gained his production by virtue of bulk ice time while playing with the top line. I have an in-depth post in the offseason Carle thread about this, but while Carle was on the ice, the team scored less. If he had the same ice time as Coburn, he would have had less points than Coburn. Carle was actually detrimental to the offense overall. He wasn't a total disaster or anything, but our offense was less efficient with him out there. I thought I saw it while watching games when he was very predictable, then when I examined the stats in the offseason they confirmed that.

As I've said, when he was in the offensive zone, he was easy to defend. His lack of shot meant those were either blocked or easy saves. They were often knocked down by the defense, rarely generated rebounds, or were blocked and cleared. His shot simply was not generating offense; which is what's gonna happen when you constantly take wrist shots from near the blue line. Teams focused on removing his pass options, because they didn't have much reason to fear his shot unless he pinched in.

He was good at moving the puck to the neutral zone and into the offensive zone, but once there? He was decidedly average. I mean, good for him for giving the puck to our top line a lot and getting those assists. A lot of those came from solid breakout passes. However, he was a detriment to sustained offensive zone offense which is reflected by his numbers.

I'll see if I can dig my post up, but it was months ago.

Edit: Nope. Taking too much effort.

I do not think a 5.5 million dollar complimentary D-man who can't handle top competition on D and stifles sustained offense is what this team needs.

 

[BernieParent]

Didn't Snider say back in like '03 or something they won't be moving the younger players for vets anymore?

You're going to hold Snider to something he said 10 years ago? Tell me, who went to Anaheim in exchange for Chris Pronger in 2009?

 

[Flyotes]

I'm not one to panic, but caution is appropriate:

How good is this team? Devil's Advocate says:

Injured Power Forward--Secondary Assist Point Getter/Elite Playmaker--NoShotPuckHolder
SmallOldDecliningSituational--SophomoreSlump--Stonehands
Matt Read--SophomoreSlump--Rookie
Nothing great--Nothing great--NothingGreat

Declining--Young
Slow--BeastmodeOnlyOnNewMoons
InjuredOverrated--Someonebarelyable

Headcase
Suxbad

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'm not one to panic, but caution is appropriate:

How good is this team? Devil's Advocate says:

Injured Power Forward--Secondary Assist Point Getter/Elite Playmaker--NoShotPuckHolder
SmallOldDecliningSituational--SophomoreSlump--Stonehands
Matt Read--SophomoreSlump--Rookie
Nothing great--Nothing great--NothingGreat

Declining--Young
Slow--BeastmodeOnlyOnNewMoons
InjuredOverrated--Someonebarelyable

Headcase
Suxbad

I laughed in a sad way.

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

I gotta wonder how many of you are really Flyers fans ? What ever happened to the spirit of rallying behind the club and hoping our club can work through this and overcome the adversity of a slow start, and dealing with injuries etc instead of trying to blame this or that player or coach.......its a little early for that in my opinion ?

What do you think us just taking the time to post here means? Of course we all want to see our team win, but I'm not going to pretend that this team is in a position to make some miraculous turn around. This team has serious, glaring weaknesses. It's a system issue as much as a personel issue.

I'm nowhere near panicking, I think they'll get better, but I'm worried that this team needs serious work.

 

[dingbathero]

I'm not one to panic, but caution is appropriate:

How good is this team? Devil's Advocate says:

Injured Power Forward--Secondary Assist Point Getter/Elite Playmaker--NoShotPuckHolder
SmallOldDecliningSituational--SophomoreSlump--Stonehands
Matt Read--SophomoreSlump--Rookie
Nothing great--Nothing great--NothingGreat

Declining--Young
Slow--BeastmodeOnlyOnNewMoons
InjuredOverrated--Someonebarelyable

Headcase
Suxbad

I don't know whether laugh or cry....

 

[Flyotes]

It's actually not very great in the hands of an optimist, either.

Healthy 25 Goal P.F. --Elite Playmaker on uptick--Learns To Shoot
Renewed Briere--Good Sophomore Campaign--Slickhands
Matt Read--Good Sophomore Campaign--Above Average Performance for 3rd liner
Decent D--Decent D--Decent D

Finnish God of Defense--Budding 1st liner
Good Defense--BeastmodeonCresentMoons
Mezfrom2yearsago--SolidBackend

PhoenixBryz
Givesyousomegames

Gets you into the playoffs, but I doubt it gets you far. Strong, but not great. Need to fast forward the Schenns and Cooter 2 seasons.