Post-Game Talk: Is it a cruel irony that PDO was created by an Oilers fan?

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Aww, now quoting stats upsets you? You were a big fan on your last one, what happened?

Giving you context so you can wrap your head around the fact that the Oilers win games in spite of their goaltending, not because of it.

Then inform management because they've decided that Skinner is the guy.

 

[Drivesaitl]

He doesn't play a lot, he's just a starter like most teams, he's tied for 11th in starts middle of the pack ish. PIckard has started 15 games in a little over half of the season (48 games).

Skinner is 11th among starts and tenth in Wins. Curious you don't mention his Win % which is appreciably worse.

As oft repeated any #1 on a team as good as the Oilers should be sporting a W/L record of something like 20-5.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Then inform management because they've decided that Skinner is the guy.

That doesn't mean it's the correct decision. If I had the power to scream at management, Ken Holland would be bleeding from the ears and Pete Chiarelli would be deaf

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

That doesn't mean it's the correct decision. If I had the power to scream at management, Ken Holland would be bleeding from the ears and Pete Chiarelli would be deaf

Believe me, if I had the power, I'd purge the entire org from owner on down. But that's just the way it is. This is what we get with halfassed ownership who's more concerned about dollars than wins. McDavid and Draisatl carry this pathetic org on its back.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Take it for what it's worth, but @KeithIsActuallyBad Knoblauch is also concerned about the depth scoring, given these lines.

Surprisingly unsurprising.

Officially safe to say Jeff Skinner is done here. At least when it was Hyman and RV out, an argument could be made it's difficult to replace RHS's roles with a LH one, and thus why Perry and Kap got more playing time.
But now you've got McDavid out, and it's still Perry getting more of an opportunity?

Also I really wish they'd stop with RV next to Drai. I just don't see the chemistry. Arvidsson loves quick give-and-goes, and getting the puck to the net and into danger zone as soon as he gets it. Meanwhile, Draisaitl and Podz like to slow-play things and cycle. Honestly Kap fits better there, as he likes to carry the puck and digest the play before passing it off; Even Perry with his size and smarts would be a better fit.

To me, RV is a more natural fit across from Hyman, where both love to get the puck to the net asap and cause chaos.

Podz-Drai-Kap
RV-RNH-Hyman
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Skinner-Philp-Perry


The one thing I do have as a takeaway from the new lines, RNH (finally) in the bottom 6?!

 

[CROTT]

Aww, now quoting stats upsets you? You were a big fan on your last one, what happened?

Giving you context so you can wrap your head around the fact that the Oilers win games in spite of their goaltending, not because of it.

Just there was no context to your stat grab, as prior to last night Skinner was a .901. He could have been over .900 against the Canucks if the goal didn’t deflect off of Ekholm, nevermind the two missed penalty calls that lead to the Canuck pp game winner.

And Skinner was playing good for a while had one of the better save precetages of all starters and the Oilers won a lot of games over that stretch. Coincidence???? There was a good stretch where he was above .920 except for a few games.

 

[K1984]

Skinner is 11th among starts and tenth in Wins. Curious you don't mention his Win % which is appreciably worse.

As oft repeated any #1 on a team as good as the Oilers should be sporting a W/L record of something like 20-5.

Arguably the best goalie in the world (Hellebyuck) doesn't even have that W%.

And before the inevitable "but if he was on the Oilers!!!" argument - the Jets outpace the Oilers in expected goals, only have 3 less real goals in one less game, and are only 3 goals worse in total expected goals against. They're very much in the ballpark of the same team so far this year.

If our demand is that Skinner should be the best goalie in the league then great. It isn't reasonable, but sure. If the demand is that he's good enough to get us wins, then he's already there. The next step is building consistency and not sliding for weeks on end or totally cratering. The last week or so has smelled like the start of a slide, let's see how he manages it.

Saying "any #1" should just have a .800 W% on the Oilers is absurd. The current results reflect a mid-level ish starter, which is what he is.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

What kills with Skinner is the fact that you either get great goaltending (LA and DAL) or outright dog water (VAN. Plus LA and LV the year before). There's little in-between and no indication a mood shift is coming. (Though I guess his finals were fine. Perhaps the only series where he's actually been just average)


Imo a big reason why he's struggled to take a step forward over the last year and a half is because he doesn't get a chance to take a step back and fix things. He's their starter and there's no time to let him work on/through things in practice. Just be ready to go for tomorrow and hope he can wing it.
Case in point, games 4 and 5 vs. Vancouver are the only time Pickard has started b2b games for the Oilers.


I'd be willing to bet if they managed to get him into a proper tandem workload, where he can have a week off to work on things, then we'd see a far more consistent Skinner. Because honestly, I have seen enough there to believe he has a legit starter potential (Dubnyk/Talbot level), but he needs time to properly stu. (ba-dum-tish)

This is one of the best posts I have seen.

This is what I want. Just run pickard for a week see how he goes and let skinner work on things.

The go from there. I still want somebody over pickard though

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Just there was no context to your stat grab, as prior to last night Skinner was a .901. He could have been over .900 against the Canucks if the goal didn’t deflect off of Ekholm, nevermind the two missed penalty calls that lead to the Canuck pp game winner.

And Skinner was playing good for a while had one of the better save precetages of all starters and the Oilers won a lot of games over that stretch. Coincidence???? There was a good stretch where he was above .920 except for a few games.

"except for the games he was bad, he was really good!!"

Since Nov 1 he has a .907. Since Dec 1 he has a .912. These are average numbers. A guy that's average at best and bad at worst isn't going to do much for us as we try to chase a Cup down.

 

[Dirk Dangler]

Hyperbole.
On the goal in question the Caps player moved the puck laterally and put it through the five hole.
Not exactly uncommon.


Its black and white to someone looking through the lens that you're using.
I have no doubt about that.

I am not saying that Skinner played a flawless game...he obviously didnt.
I am just pointing out that there is some nuance here that is completely absent from your (and a few other posters) argument.

Here is another example...posters on here are convicned that Thompson played a great game. I saw a goalie that couldnt handle almost every shot that came at him. He leaked rebounds the entire game and the fact that the Oilers couldnt take advantage of that is the game story IMO.

If they do mange to capitalize on a few of those rebound chances and score more than 2 goals they likely win that game.

Hyperbole. A .786 save percentage in a game your team dominated is unacceptably bad.

 

[mcdingdong]

Skinner is 18W 15L backstopping on a team that is a juggernaut. Considering the backup is 11-4 and has been better these are awful numbers for Skinner, and they deserve to be cited as we spend much of last season with the media and telecasts here talking about "Skinners record" and his W streak and all that. A year later even this last edifice is exposed. Skinner isn't often a reason a team W's but he's often enough the reason you lose games. Like last night.

Skinner has been downright bad for several stretches this season but Pickard has played like 12/15 of his games against absolute doormats. His toughest 2 starts were NJ and a busted MIN team. His typical opponents are the likes of ANA, NSH, CHI, etc., etc., with no appreciable difference in counting stats relative to Skinner. It is wild to say Pickard has been better, full stop. His point% is right in line (I think actually slightly below) our point% against bottom half-of-the-league teams. Which makes sense, because that contingent of teams makes up the vast majority of his starts.

I am all for upgrading the position (better backup or 1A/1B to push Skinner makes sense) but the move is not to start playing Pickard more than Skinner.

As for last night's game, Skinner definitely muffed a goal which is unfortunately not an unusual occurrence. I continue to worry about the team's lack of finish as well. But as I've stated many times this is a good team and with some luck and health we should have a long run again. I mean, if Drai and Kane aren't shells of themselves due to injury in the Finals last season we are all still happily hungover.

 

[K1984]

"except for the games he was bad, he was really good!!"

Since Nov 1 he has a .907. Since Dec 1 he has a .912. These are average numbers. A guy that's average at best and bad at worst isn't going to do much for us as we try to chase a Cup down.

The league average SV% is .901.

So he's been steadily above average for nearly 3 months with the number going up.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Really just sounds like the sore loser looking for the easy person to blame. When the only Oiler to score was Janmark.

Skinner defenders and their bending of everything to prop him up is hilarious

Its like somebody giving you feces to eat and trying every sort of trick and explanation to convince you that you are eating a Hershey's chocolate bar

I’ve seen enough at this point. He’s had his chances. Unfortunately turned out to be a bad signing

I imagine once McDavid is back he’s in the press box until the trade deadline to force his hand into waiving his nmc

Imagine he is just sitting here and through the playoffs. 3 million that could bring an impact rental. Just abhorrent that he makes more than Holloway, who can actually drive a line. Nobody on Edmonton can besides mcdrai

I wish we could even punt RNH and get A guy with some aggressive drive who can produce a little.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

This is one of the best posts I have seen.

This is what I want. Just run pickard for a week see how he goes and let skinner work on things.

The go from there. I still want somebody over pickard though

Sadly I think this is more than a week-long thing.

A good indication with Skinner is his footwork. When he's on his game, he's anticipating the play well and making things look simple. When he's not... Well, it's last night. Lots of standing off balance, shrinking down, and not being ready to react.


Also I think it's clear that they don't fully trust Pickard, even if he has given them some decent efforts in net. And while I like the guy, if he was waived, who's actually picking him up? Maybe Tampa and Columbus? But they're the only two I could see batting an eyelash. At the end of the day, he's a 32 year old goalie, who owns a sub-900SV%, while playing for one of the better defensive clubs (statistically) in the league...


Imo the correct play is waiving Pickard, making it look like you're giving Rod a shot and setting the stage so he can avoid waivers, and then making a move for a goalie the team is comfortable taking starts from Skinner. Even if that's just someone like Vejmelka.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

The league average SV% is .901.

So he's been steadily above average for nearly 3 months with the number going up.

“Average” numbers while playing on a powerhouse team and one of the best at limiting chances is actually not average.

 

[CROTT]

"except for the games he was bad, he was really good!!"

Since Nov 1 he has a .907. Since Dec 1 he has a .912. These are average numbers. A guy that's average at best and bad at worst isn't going to do much for us as we try to chase a Cup down.

So a goalie can’t have a bad game?

And a .912 is pretty good for 2.6 million. And to you his stats in games 5,6, and 7 (prior to game seven of the final) in last year’s playoffs mean nothing in his ability to win a cup?

You just discount everything cause you hate the player. You also like I did pointed out his numbers are getting better after the start of the year when the whole team was bad. And yes Skinners was on said team and has gotten better and is still improving.

 

[McShogun99]

Really just sounds like the sore loser looking for the easy person to blame. When the only Oiler to score was Janmark.

If that first goal doesn't go in and Janmark makes it 1-0 it's a completely different game. Florida is forced to open up and play to our strength. The winning team scored first in 6 of the 7 games.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

If that first goal doesn't go in and Janmark makes it 1-0 it's a completely different game. Florida is forced to open up and play to our strength. The winning team scored first in 6 of the 7 games.

And if the Oilers score more than once in games 1 and 2 maybe we're having a different discussion.

 

[K1984]

“Average” numbers while playing on a powerhouse team and one of the best at limiting chances is actually not average.

Good thing he's posting numbers well above average then.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

So a goalie can’t have a bad game?

And a .912 is pretty good for 2.6 million. And to you his stats in games 5,6, and 7 (prior to game seven of the final) in last year’s playoffs mean nothing in his ability to win a cup?
View attachment 965442
You just discount everything cause you hate the player. You also like I did pointed out his numbers are getting better after the start of the year when the whole team was bad. And yes Skinners was on said team and has gotten better and is still improving.

We don't have to GET to games 5,6, and 7 if he's better in the early games of the series. Being good in the last 3 games of a series but crap in the first four is like being such a horrible shot with a cannon that you blow holes in your own boat but you're damn good at bailing out water so you don't sink.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Good thing he's posting numbers well above average then.

As he should. Maybe one day this season he can stay above 900 more than 2 weeks.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

So a goalie can’t have a bad game?

And a .912 is pretty good for 2.6 million. And to you his stats in games 5,6, and 7 (prior to game seven of the final) in last year’s playoffs mean nothing in his ability to win a cup?
View attachment 965442
You just discount everything cause you hate the player.

And these numbers are why they should be hesitant to toss Skinner to the curb, He can be good, he just has zilch in the way of consistency. Imo that's because you're still dealing with an undercooked player.

They need someone that can take starts off him, and clearly the team doesn't think Pickard is that person.

 

[CROTT]

We don't have to GET to games 5,6, and 7 if he's better in the early games of the series. Being good in the last 3 games of a series but crap in the first four is like being such a horrible shot with a cannon that you blow holes in your own boat but you're damn good at bailing out water so you don't sink.

Wow, just wow. So you expect .930 and the oilers to sweep every series?

The only problem he had last year was the Canuck’s series. I think you need to look for some reality…

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

And these numbers are why they should be hesitant to toss Skinner to the curb, He can be good, he just has zilch in the way of consistency. Imo that's because you're still dealing with an undercooked player.

They need someone that can take starts off him, and clearly the team doesn't think Pickard is that person.

He's not even supposed to be the starter. It's just that the guy who was supposed to be the solution did so poorly he's not even in the NHL anymore.

 

[K1984]

As he should. Maybe one day this season he can stay above 900 more than 2 weeks.

How about three months?