Post-Game Talk: Is it a cruel irony that PDO was created by an Oilers fan?

[Drivesaitl]

The Oilers have the sixth lowest goals against in the NHL with Skinner getting the bulk of the starts and not getting to play almost strictly bottom ten teams like Pickard does. And after every loss its the same old song and dance, even some times after a win that the Oilers need a better goalie...

This is standard misattribution. The Oilers have this despite Skinner, certainly not because of him. The Oilers would be #1 in all defensive categories without substandard goaltending. The Oilers play around the best D in the league this season.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Hyperbole.
On the goal in question the Caps player moved the puck laterally and put it through the five hole.
Not exactly uncommon.


Its black and white to someone looking through the lens that you're using.
I have no doubt about that.

I am not saying that Skinner played a flawless game...he obviously didnt.
I am just pointing out that there is some nuance here that is completely absent from your (and a few other posters) argument.

Here is another example...posters on here are convicned that Thompson played a great game. I saw a goalie that couldnt handle almost every shot that came at him. He leaked rebounds the entire game and the fact that the Oilers couldnt take advantage of that is the game story IMO.

If they do mange to capitalize on a few of those rebound chances and score more than 2 goals they likely win that game.

Logan Thompson is 22-2-3 with a .925 SV% and #1 in the NHL in goals saved above expected. He's averaging saving a goal against every single game better than the numbers expect him to. The Caps are succeeding because of him. The Oilers are succeeding in SPITE of their goaltending.

 

[K1984]

I am not a Skinner hater, I see it as it is...he is as mediocre as possible with outliers in every direction...but is he a cup winning goalie?
He is 30th in save% and 25th in GAA...I don't think it's good enough to win it all but the Avs had shown that you can win with mediocre goal tending but it's not likely.

I'm sure I'll get accused of "cherry picking," but would be curious to see where the rank is from November 15th onwards in both categories. When a player's play can be so starkly divided into two buckets with a pretty clear demarcation line I think that it's fair to look at both sides.

Pretty much every aspect of our game that involved allowing goals was in the basement from about October 15 - November 15, and nearly all of these aspects have seen a marked turnaround since. Our PK is ranked 23rd on the back of the PK being a joke in October, but you don't hear many complaints now because it's been good for 2+ months, for example. I think that the goaltending this year should be looked at with the same lens when citing league ranks over the whole year.

If the PK reverts to the worst in the league by a mile again then we'll all be there to call it out. Similarly, I think that we should actually give the goalies a chance to actually consistently fail before panicking about it. Skinner's game has slid a bit over the past week/week and a half, let's see how he responds. Even with that "slide," it isn't in the same stratosphere of the poor level of goaltending we got to start the year.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

The Oilers have the sixth lowest goals against in the NHL with Skinner getting the bulk of the starts and not getting to play almost strictly bottom ten teams like Pickard does. And after every loss its the same old song and dance, even some times after a win that the Oilers need a better goalie...

By the numbers, the Oilers are 4th in the NHL in high danger chances against. All situations, they've allowed 129 goals against on 125 expected. The goaltending most nights is mediocre at best.

 

[CROTT]

I am not a Skinner hater, I see it as it is...he is as mediocre as possible with outliers in every direction...but is he a cup winning goalie?
He is 30th in save% and 25th in GAA...I don't think it's good enough to win it all but the Avs had shown that you can win with mediocre goal tending but it's not likely.

Came with in a game of winning the cup last year and outside of the start of the Canucks series was good. Especially in games 5,6, and 7 of each series. Besides winning that last game what more could he have done? No team plays perfect the whole playoffs and sweeps every series.

 

[Old Boys Club]

The team isnt trading Skinner and he was the goalie that got them to game 7 of the SCF. In that game he wasnt the reason they lost. So he can be good enough IMO.

On the point shot...I have watched that 6 or 7 times now and Bouchards passiveness with the Caps player in front played a major role on that goal.
Skinner IMO made a mistake as well. He guessed high to try and located the puck. He tried to look over Bouchard (who wasnt doing his job) and the Caps player at exactly the wrong time. If he had of tried to look down low to try and locate the puck I he would have had a better chance at that puck.

Still its not just on him. Bouchard was junk on that play. He was junk the whole game actually.
He was a liability at both ends of the ice.

To be fair, Protas is 6’6 230lbs and extremely strong on his skates. There’s maybe 5 defenders in the NHL that would have a hope of clearing him from the crease. That’s a situation where you need your goalie to fight through the screen for a sight line.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Logan Thompson is 22-2-3 with a .925 SV% and #1 in the NHL in goals saved above expected. He's averaging saving a goal against every single game better than the numbers expect him to. The Caps are succeeding because of him. The Oilers are succeeding in SPITE of their goaltending.

Skinner: 18-12-3. One of these W/L stats aren't like the other. Yeah. Most goalies that play #1 on stud teams have a sexy W/L record. Not Skinner this season. That he's managed to have as many as 15losses so far should be shocking in respect of this club. If this was even the Calgary Flames you'd wonder if the starter shouldn't be doing better.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

To be fair, Protas is 6’6 230lbs and extremely strong on his skates. There’s maybe 5 defenders in the NHL that would have a hope of clearing him from the crease. That’s a situation where you need your goalie to fight through the screen for a sight line.

Some people will scream until they're blue in the face about Bouchard but Skinner could take a crap in the crease and roll around in it and people won't say boo.

 

[CROTT]

By the numbers, the Oilers are 4th in the NHL in high danger chances against. All situations, they've allowed 129 goals against on 125 expected. The goaltending most nights is mediocre at best.

All of these expected stats seam flawed in a game as fluid as hockey, a goal off of a skate or the difference between a fourth liner and a first liner getting a HDSC is huge. Or that some of them don't account for 2 on 1s which is a way a lot of goals are scored.

 

[foshizzle]

This is standard misattribution. The Oilers have this despite Skinner, certainly not because of him. The Oilers would be #1 in all defensive categories without substandard goaltending. The Oilers play around the best D in the league this season.

This. Same argument I hear about “Skinner took us to within 1 goal of the cup”. No he didn’t. He shit the bed in the first 2 rounds. Saved by a historic PP in round 1 and Calvin Pickard in round 2. No team has beaten a team with a .833 save %- Oilers became the first. He is still the worst starting goalie in the cap era during the playoff who has played atleast 20 games.

 

[Drivesaitl]

To be fair, Protas is 6’6 230lbs and extremely strong on his skates. There’s maybe 5 defenders in the NHL that would have a hope of clearing him from the crease. That’s a situation where you need your goalie to fight through the screen for a sight line.

As I'm to understand from the Skinners in attendance the screened point shot is the most dangerous shot in hockey instead of a common event that occurs against all clubs every game. Except that Skinner with possibly the worst puck tracking in the league makes this into a High danger play. Teams should just find ways to sift pucks in from the point against Skinner. If it doesn't get blocked the rebound is gravy anyway.

The Oilers are possibly the best team in the league at blocking impeding point shots. They've had to be. They have Skinner in net. Anything could go in. The team plays with an intense awareness of that letting only 14 sog and still losing the game. This is outlier people and theres one reason. How many games do people think teams lose when SOG are 32-14 or something like that margin. Skinner let in TWICE the expected goals in this one. Skinner was beat 4X on the first 10 caps shots. Its laughable this is being defended.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

All of these expect stats seam flawed in a game as fluid as hockey, a goal off of a skate or the difference between a fourth liner and a first liner getting a HDSC is huge.

except every team and player is judged by the same stats, so it's consistent across the league.

Logan Thompson has saved 27 goals above expected in 27 games. He's literally the reason the Caps win.

Wanna know what the Oilers record is when Skinner puts up a .900? 15-2-1.

 

[foshizzle]

All of these expected stats seam flawed in a game as fluid as hockey, a goal off of a skate or the difference between a fourth liner and a first liner getting a HDSC is huge. Or that some of them don't account for 2 on 1s which is a way a lot of goals are scored.

No- these metrics aren’t flawed. Every team faces the same players and the same players produce chances at roughly the same rate against all teams.

except every team and player is judged by the same stats, so it's consistent across the league.

Logan Thompson has saved 27 goals above expected in 27 games. He's literally the reason the Caps win.

Wanna know what the Oilers record is when Skinner puts up a .900? 15-2-1.

That’s insane. With average goaltending what the oilers win rate is. Mind=blown. Just need a goalie who is consistently average- not the guy who is just as likely to have a game above .900 as he is below .850

 

[Drivesaitl]

This. Same argument I hear about “Skinner took us to within 1 goal of the cup”. No he didn’t. He shit the bed in the first 2 rounds. Saved by a historic PP in round 1 and Calvin Pickard in round 2. No team has beaten a team with a .833 save %- Oilers became the first. He is still the worst starting goalie in the cap era during the playoff who has played atleast 20 games.

Yeah. Attribution isn't a strong point for some posters here. In fairness the media and telecasts here sing falsehood as well. Last year it was the Skinner legend winning streak (had little to do with him) and the Skinner W record. Year later all those peeps are silient on it. Now its somebody else is the reason Skinner is underperforming and losing. The one poster has 50posts in the thread blaming others for Skinners game last night.

It beggars belief that people don't detect that the biggest flaw in the Oilers roster is goaltending. Its the salient variable that prevents the Oil being better.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Skinner is 18W 15L backstopping on a team that is a juggernaut. Considering the backup is 11-4 and has been better these are awful numbers for Skinner, and they deserve to be cited as we spend much of last season with the media and telecasts here talking about "Skinners record" and his W streak and all that. A year later even this last edifice is exposed. Skinner isn't often a reason a team W's but he's often enough the reason you lose games. Like last night.

The backup's wins have come against:
Nashville (x3)
Chicago
Seattle
San Jose (OT)
Columbus
Utah
Detroit
Minnesota (x2)

 

[CROTT]

except every team and player is judged by the same stats, so it's consistent across the league.

Logan Thompson has saved 27 goals above expected in 27 games. He's literally the reason the Caps win.

Wanna know what the Oilers record is when Skinner puts up a .900? 15-2-1.

Skinner is also tied for 7th in the league in wins.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Skinner is also tied for 7th in the league in wins.

Which shows that he plays a lot and his team is really good, doesn't say much about his own performance.

Edmonton's record overall with .900 goaltending: 23-3-1. That's a 142 point pace.

 

[CROTT]

Which shows that he plays a lot and his team is really good, doesn't say much about his own performance.

He doesn't play a lot, he's just a starter like most teams, he's tied for 11th in starts middle of the pack ish. PIckard has started 15 games in a little over half of the season (48 games).

 

[McShogun99]

I think the Skinner social panic is overblown, especially in the context of his recent play, but the second goal is inexcusable.

That kind of goal is/was the cancer on his game that has largely not reared its head over the past few months. Over the last week or so he's slipped back into the realm of "he wasn't outwardly terrible, but would be nice if that GA didn't go in." Time to get back on track.

Florida was the best shutdown team in the league last year and were even better in the playoffs since the refs throw away the whistles. Getting the first goal was pretty much the difference between winning and losing each game in the series since Florida goes right into lockdown/obstruction mode. We go up 1-0 in game 7 then we probably win the cup. You can lose a game 2-1 with your goalie letting in 2 stoppable goals.

 

[CROTT]

Florida was the best shutdown team in the league last year and were even better in the playoffs since the refs throw away the whistles. Getting the first goal was pretty much the difference between winning and losing each game in the series since Florida goes right into lockdown/obstruction mode. We go up 1-0 in game 7 then we probably win the cup. You can lose a game 2-1 with your goalie letting in 2 stoppable goals.

Really just sounds like the sore loser looking for the easy person to blame. When the only Oiler to score was Janmark.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

He doesn't play a lot, he's just a starter like most teams, he's tied for 11th in starts middle of the pack ish. PIckard has started 15 games in a little over half of the season (48 games).

There are only 4 goalies in the top 15 in wins that have a sub .900 SV%. Skinner is one of them. Bobrovsky is another, but he has a cup and two Vezinas to suggest he'll bounce back. The other two are Montembeault and Merzlikins.

 

[CROTT]

There are only 4 goalies in the top 15 in wins that have a sub .900 SV%. Skinner is one of them. Bobrovsky is another, but he has a cup and two Vezinas to suggest he'll bounce back. The other two are Montembeault and Merzlikins.

Thanks for the pointless random info, Skinner has been trending up since the bad start of the season in SV%.

 

[K1984]

Florida was the best shutdown team in the league last year and were even better in the playoffs since the refs throw away the whistles. Getting the first goal was pretty much the difference between winning and losing each game in the series since Florida goes right into lockdown/obstruction mode. We go up 1-0 in game 7 then we probably win the cup. You can lose a game 2-1 with your goalie letting in 2 stoppable goals.

Right, and same goes for every single team in the league.

Skinner generally hasn't been letting in the "2 stoppable goals" since about Nov 15th. A bit of that has come back again over the past ~10 days or so, hopefully he finds a way to grow and have them stop now before they get worse.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

There are only 4 goalies in the top 15 in wins that have a sub .900 SV%. Skinner is one of them. Bobrovsky is another, but he has a cup and two Vezinas to suggest he'll bounce back. The other two are Montembeault and Merzlikins.

Fire Dustin Schwartz, conduct an actual search for a goalie coach, and go from there. It's an option that costs the org no assets. If Skinner still sucks, dump to the curb. The Oilers haven't taken goaltending seriously in over a decade. Wouldn't expect them to start until they fire this bozo.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Thanks for the pointless random info, Skinner has been trending up since the bad start of the season in SV%.

Aww, now quoting stats upsets you? You were a big fan on your last one, what happened?

Giving you context so you can wrap your head around the fact that the Oilers win games in spite of their goaltending, not because of it.