I voted McDavid is a tier above. Obviously for career rankings I’d probably have Crosby ahead as of 2024 but I can see ranking McDavid clearly ahead in just a few more years with little pushback if any. I understand even ranking him ahead even now too. The only reason for this is 19 years to 9 but McDavid also has more total hardware than Crosby does in less than half the time.
My reasoning for that vote is due to McDavid having higher single season career highs in every stat both regular and adjusted. Those include: goals, assists, points, plus minus, points per game. That list also holds true for the postseason as well regular and adjusted other than goals but due to less games. Most of the gaps are considerable as well. I may also post a list of these single career highs in a different post for all to see but this post will be long as is so I’ll hold off for that reason. It comes down to having far better regular seasons and playoff single seasons than Crosby has. McDavid also has dominated his peers in his best seasons (2021 and 2023) at a level only the big 4 has reached. Especially for non teammates. Crosby never did anything like that nor was he when his season stopped in 2011. McDavid this past postseason also had the highest adjusted points total in playoff history with the largest margin between a player and a non teammate at 20 points (Gretzky did 18 twice).
You can use adjusted stats from HockeyReference and the results will be similar but accounting for Even strength, powerplay and shorthanded rates give better results so those adjusted stats are the ones most should use.
NHL Historical league averages:
ESG: 2.24, PPG: 0.72, SHG: 0.10
Here are first 9 seasons for each:
Connor McDavid
15-16: 45 GP: 19 G, 37 A, 56 P (1.24)
16-17: 82 GP: 33 G, 80 A, 113 P (1.38)
17-18: 82 GP: 42 G, 71 A, 113 P (1.38)
18-19: 78 GP: 42 G, 80 A, 122 P (1.56)
19-20: 64 GP: 36 G, 68 A, 104 P (1.63)
20-21: 56 GP: 35 G, 79 A, 114 P (2.04)
21-22: 80 GP: 43 G, 83 A, 126 P (1.58)
22-23: 82 GP: 64 G, 92 A, 156 P (1.90)
23-24: 76 GP: 32 G, 102 A, 134 P (1.76)
Total: 645 GP: 346 G, 692 A, 1038 P (1.61)
Sidney Crosby:
05-06: 81 GP: 39 G, 60 A, 99 P (1.22)
06-07: 79 GP: 38 G, 83 A, 121 P (1.53)
07-08: 53 GP: 28 G, 52 A, 80 P (1.51)
08-09: 77 GP: 36 G, 72 A, 108 P (1.40)
09-10: 81 GP: 57 G, 63 A, 120 P (1.48)
10-11: 41 GP: 36 G, 38 A, 74 P (1.80)
11-12: 22 GP: 10 G, 33 A, 43 P (1.95)
12-13: 36 GP: 18 G, 47 A, 65 P (1.81)
13-14: 80 GP: 41 G, 79 A, 120 P (1.50)
Total: 550 GP: 303 G, 527 A, 830 P (1.51)
This comparison is actually the closest it will be for Crosby. Crosby’s first 9 years are definitely all time great but after 2014 his numbers (while remaining consistently good) fall from his statistical prime. This is where things peak for Crosby so to speak and McDavid has still already topped it. Assuming McDavid produces at his average level there will be a very wide gap in a few years time when adjusted. There is a clear gap now through 9 years as is. You can take 2011, 12 and 13 together as one big 99 game “season” sample for peak play and you get 182 in 99 (1.84) when adjusted. The issue is McDavid has 2021 and 2023 that are better with 2024 being close as well with injuries.
One other minor point is even strength play. Even strength goals per game from 2006-2014 averaged at 1.96 and 2.27 from 2016-2024.
Their raw totals for ESP for first 9:
SC: 467 in 550 (0.85)
CM: 632 in 645 (0.98)
When adjusted to 2016-2024 level:
CM: 632 in 645 (0.98)
SC: 541 in 550 (0.98)
For their best seasons you have the three year Crosby stretch of 2011-2013 when he put up 111 in 99 ESP. When adjusted to the 2.24 historical average that becomes 124 in 99 (1.25). Crosby was remarkable at even strength in his peak spurts but many forget that McDavid has been as well.
In 2021 he had 68 in 56 regular (and it stays that way when adjusted) for 1.21. He also had a stretch last season that was better than anything Crosby did at even strength to add to what he did in 2020-21. From when he returned to form from injury in November 24th 2023 to when he briefly took the lead in the Ross race on March 30th 2024 against Anaheim he had 74 ESP in 54 games. When adjusted that is 70 in 54 (1.30). Combining that and 2021 adjusted gives you a total of 138 in 110 GP (1.25). The same as Crosby at even strength for peak when adjusted but in more games. If anything McDavid is better at peak for ESP but at worst it’s a wash even when you crunch the numbers to make it fair to Crosby.
Long winded post I know but I think for me it comes down to just a few things. I have seen Crosby’s entire career as a regular attendee of pens games for decades and McDavid when I’ve seen him is significantly better. The head to head stats are also glaring and I’ve been in attendance for a lot of them. I have to rate McDavid a tier ahead because he wins in every category regular and adjusted, has more total awards already and is visually the best player I’ve seen from a sport advancement standpoint and the third best player I’ve ever seen live behind only Gretzky and then Lemieux. I have to put him in another tier because of these reasons but with that said Crosby is 5th or 6th all time as of right now and the next best player of the last 20 years easily.