Speculation: Is Broberg a prime candidate for an offer sheet?

[oXo Cube]

I think there is a reason we rarely see offer sheets. They are a lot more complicated than it seems on the surface.

It's a simple math problem. You need to offer more money than the other team is willing to match but not so much that you saddle your own team with a crippling contract and/or give up draft pick value your target player isn't actually worth. The window an offersheet needs to hit is very small.

Taking Broberg as an example, I think Edmonton probably walks if you sign him to a 4.5M offer sheet, but do you really want that contract on your own team when he has maybe 10 good NHL games played to date? Conversely you could maybe sign him for 2.5-3M but if you do that the Oilers probably just match the offer and you've accomplished nothing except waste your own time.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I suspect if you offersheet broberg 4 mill you can have him

 

[LTIR]

ANA has been a bit cheap in the past but people hope 2nd rounders become Broberg heck late 1sts which would be kind of where Anaheim pick is.

I'd do a 4.4 million 1 year deal without even blinking.

I don't see it done and I mentioned how offersheets should be used more last year on teams like the Rangers and others.

But this could be a solid get.

ANA doesn't have a 2nd round pick so 4M+ offer would need to include their 1st rd pick. EDM takes that and run.

Doesn't the next contract need to be 10% more or you lose them as a UFA?

Front loading a contract for the lulz isn't something a GM would do if they value their career.

10% of 2.2M is only a 220K raise.

 

[dgibb10]

I think there is a reason we rarely see offer sheets. They are a lot more complicated than it seems on the surface.

The lack of offer sheets is what keeps overall RFA prices down, SIGNIFICANTLY.

It is in every owner and GMs best interest to keep it that way.

Why offer sheet broberg for a 2nd and pay him 4.4 mill (plus he'll get a heftier next contract based on that QO) when you could trade a pair of 2nds for him and get him at 2 mill x3 or something.

It is in everybody's interest but the player to avoid offer sheets

 

[Coffey]

Six months ago he was being called bustberg by his own fanbase.

Me

 

[a mangy Meowth]

DO IT!

And Oilers Twitter will chirp the f*** out of you for years. You don't want this smoke.

Witness intimidation

 

[Perfect_Drug]

ANA doesn't have a 2nd round pick so 4M+ offer would need to include their 1st rd pick. EDM takes that and run.


10% of 2.2M is only a 220K raise.

Regardless of if he gets injured, or how poorly he plays, he will be paid $2.42m AAV on his next contract.

I mean it sets him up for life, but as others mentioned that GM will lose all leverage with other RFA negotiations forever.

 

[Coffey]

ANA could sign him to 2.2M x 1 to make Edmonton think. Cost is only a 3rd rounder and it wouldn't seem too bad around the league considering EDM has signed Penner (ANA) in past.

They would still remain under cap floor.

And he would sign it without thinking, because money > playoffs + chance at cup.

 

[oXo Cube]

And he would sign it without thinking, because money > playoffs + chance at cup.

Eh, honestly he might. For a guy in Broberg's position the most important thing he could find for himself is a real opportunity. Edmonton hasn't given him that and looking at their depth chart at left defense it doesn't look like a guarantee they're going to this season, either.

That said, 2.2M wouldn't get it done. Edmonton isn't that down bad against the cap.

 

[Coffey]

Edmonton hasn't given him that

This is the year.
Especially after that solid playoffs.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

ANA doesn't have a 2nd round pick so 4M+ offer would need to include their 1st rd pick. EDM takes that and run.


10% of 2.2M is only a 220K raise.

Just used an example wild they have no 2nd.

 

[Son of Petter]

I wish this league had more guts like the NFL. If you leave good players exposed they’re as good as gone.

 

[Brodeur]

I wish this league had more guts like the NFL. If you leave good players exposed they’re as good as gone.

NFL/NBA are just different beasts. With the NHL there are just a lot of things to line up:

1. Would the player even sign? Montreal approached Brayden Point and he politely declined. Then Montreal pivoted to Sebastian Aho who was willing. Columbus apparently approached Mitch Marner when he was RFA, but he never signed while seemingly using it as leverage.

2. Which teams have the cap space, required draft picks, and motivation?

Most teams don't have the cap space and the ones that do tend to be rebuilding and might not be in the business of giving up unprotected picks.

My cautionary tale was Tampa and Ondrej Meszaros in 2008. Tampa wanted a young proven NHL defender to grow with Steven Stamkos. Meszaros was RFA and Ottawa didn't have much cap space.

So Tampa wanted to offer sheet Meszaros (1st+2nd+3rd compensation) but they had already traded away the required 3rd rounder. They unsuccessfully tried to get it back. Eventually they worked out a standard trade and got him.

But if they had gone the offer sheet route like they intended, they would have unwittingly given away the Victor Hedman pick.

I remember a few Devils fans were clamoring for a Kevin Labanc offer sheet in 2019.

------

Also salary jealously happens in every sport. If you give a relatively big deal to an outsider, you risk alienating somebody on your team.

 

[LTIR]

And he would sign it without thinking, because money > playoffs + chance at cup.

He would sign it considering Nurse and Ekholm are locked in top 4 and Kulak is also pretty good #3LD.
His camp has had issues with Oilers in past and may have even wanted to be traded out.
He played the right side during playoffs and is more focused on a safe roster spot with room to grow over a chance at a cup at this stage of his career

 

[Scintillating10]

Would Oilers do Monahan type trade for Habs to take Kane?

 

[Soundwave]

Would Oilers do Monahan type trade for Habs to take Kane?

From the sounds of it, he's going on LTIR for a while.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Would Oilers do Monahan type trade for Habs to take Kane?

No. Kane doesn't have negative value if he is going to be healthy next season,, and if he isn't going to be healthy, to LTIR he goes.

He would sign it considering Nurse and Ekholm are locked in top 4 and Kulak is also pretty good #3LD.
His camp has had issues with Oilers in past and may have even wanted to be traded out.
He played the right side during playoffs and is more focused on a safe roster spot with room to grow over a chance at a cup at this stage of his career

He probably would sign it, based on the Oilers taking forever to "give" him a shot (even though he hasn't earned it), and the fact that its a lot of money and he's made peanuts in his career so far. I would wager he is the internal solution on the 2nd pair right side, even though he's a lefty.

 

[Scintillating10]

No. Kane doesn't have negative value if he is going to be healthy next season,, and if he isn't going to be healthy, to LTIR he goes.

You still have to be cap compliance to start season
Before you put him on LTIR.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

It's a simple math problem. You need to offer more money than the other team is willing to match but not so much that you saddle your own team with a crippling contract and/or give up draft pick value your target player isn't actually worth. The window an offersheet needs to hit is very small.

Taking Broberg as an example, I think Edmonton probably walks if you sign him to a 4.5M offer sheet, but do you really want that contract on your own team when he has maybe 10 good NHL games played to date? Conversely you could maybe sign him for 2.5-3M but if you do that the Oilers probably just match the offer and you've accomplished nothing except waste your own time.

Agree 100%. You really need a situation where an outside organization sees a significantly higher upside for a player than his current team. Way back in the day, the Oilers saw Penner as a potential 1st line power winger, and the Ducks didn't. As such, when the Oilers offer-sheeted Penner a contract that paid him like a 1st line winger - the Ducks didn't match. If the Ducks did see him as that type of player - they would have matched the contract.

Another example would be the Canes saw Aho as a 1st line center - so when MON paid him like that it was an easy match.

I don't think an organization would value Broberg as a legit 2nd pair d-man based on a good three weeks of play. Especially if it establishes a precedent for their own RFA's moving forward.

 

[bernmeister]

So, if offer sheet is not happening and there is still cap concern, what do we think is fair actual trade value, totality of circumstances?

 

[Canovin]

I suspect if you offersheet broberg 4 mill you can have him

haha no. We need him and that's not enough compensation. The Oilers will let him go for 2 x 1sts

 

[TheNumber4]

So, if offer sheet is not happening and there is still cap concern, what do we think is fair actual trade value, totality of circumstances?

It would have to be an overpay cause Broberg @ 1M to help the Oilers cap crunch has immense value. They would trade alot of other players before even considering Broberg which can be a long term cap solution for them.

 

[ESH]

4.5 is just a threshold for a 2nd round pick.

I doubt any rebuilding teams will want to use their 1st round pick but if there is a contending team out there then they can even offer Broberg something like a 5-6.8 mil contract as Broberg will likely be better than any late first round pick for a contender.

4.5-6.8 = 1st and 3rd round pick compensation.

That would be an absolutely horrendous use of cap space. The Oilers defense corps is not great and he can’t even crack a full-time spot in it. Why would anyone pay that much for a guy who hasn’t proven to be anything more than a #7?

 

[Canovin]

That would be an absolutely horrendous use of cap space. The Oilers defense corps is not great and he can’t even crack a full-time spot in it. Why would anyone pay that much for a guy who hasn’t proven to be anything more than a #7?

Did you not watch the playoffs? Broberg held us own quite well. Why would the Oilers let him go for a 2nd rounder?

 

[Mr Positive]

You still have to be cap compliance to start season
Before you put him on LTIR.

I've seen teams do this though. There has got to be mechanisms to make it work.

But if the choice was losing Broberg vs trading off Ceci with a prospect or pick attached, we'd do the latter. Broberg isn't an afterthought here