Speculation: Is Broberg a prime candidate for an offer sheet?

[Davo Ikinzom]

Offer sheeting unproven players seems pretty dumb. That's how you end up paying a plug like Kotkaniemi 5m/y until 2030.

 

[Mr Positive]

Broberg really hasn't proven he's even a consistent NHL player.

But hypothetically you could maybe get him to sign a 1 year offer sheet that leaves your team open to walking away from the qualifying offer if he underperforms. Even something like a 1 year 3M would put Edmonton in a pretty awkward position.

No it wouldn't be awkward. We'd match it. We can be over the cap in the summer. We aren't losing our best prospect. It's obvious he will replace Ekholm as our #1LD in time.

 

[seanlinden]

Forgive my ignorance... but how exactly do the Oilers plan on gettign under the cap, considering they are currently $2.4m over, with Broberg and Holloway to sign?



As for the concept of offer sheets, I think if you're a team in Edmonton's division and/or conference, who likes Broberg or Holloway, then the concept of a 1-year offer sheet is probably not all that risky. You can go up to $4.5m on a 2nd-round offer sheet.

Hand either or both of these guys a 1 year deal at $3.5m... and that puts Edmonton in a really tough position.

Yes, it's not ideal from a long term retention plan, as they can just ride qualifying offers to keep their salary near $3.5m.... but that's not really the end of the world if you believe in these guys.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

Pros: Edmonton may not be able to match 4.5 million for Broberg.

Cons: you now have to pay 4.5 million for Broberg.

 

[TheNumber4]

DO IT!

And Oilers Twitter will chirp the f*** out of you for years. You don't want this smoke.

 

[GOilers88]

Broberg looked good in the playoffs but that's a massive gamble imo.

Not to mention during that run he was playing top 4. Why sign a short term OS with a team that likely isn't in the playoffs when you can just stay where you are and continue to develop alongside a McDrai led team that just missed the Stanley Cup, and is on paper better now than they were a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Fishy McScales]

One aspect that needs to be considered here is this:

UrbanImpact is a fan. Fans go "bruh everyone team should just screw the Oilers over lol".

Craig Conroy is an NHL GM. NHL GM's go "I'm being held accountable for an NHL org and need to do what's best for my team".

 

[Bank Shot]

Which is exactly why a team like Calgary should think about an offersheet. Their LD to put it bluntly is bad. Best case scenario you get a young potential top 4 LD in the mix or you mess up the Oilers cap. Worst case you waste a 2nd and let Broberg walk without a QO.

Why does an NHL GM want to burn a 2nd just to mess with the Oilers?

If a team like Calgary or Anaheim uses their 2nd, they have at least 7-9 years of control over a player.

They get a player at 23-24 through an offer sheet and he probably leaves as a free agent as soon as possible as the Ducks and Flames will be a dumpster fire for at least another 4-5 seasons.

Seems like a lose-lose scenario.

 

[L4br3cqu3]

Offer sheets aren't real threats.

Hum yeah they are, to the teams offering them.

 

[Pucklington]

If you offer sheet him at 4.5M for 1 year, your qualifying offer needs to be higher than that a year after.

If he proves to be a good number 4, you still wouldn't want to carry that as a caphit, as it is poor use of cap.

Also potentially messes with your own internal cap structure for defense and offer sheets.

Carolina did this to Montreal, and it didn't turn out.

 

[StickShift]

The player still has to sign it…

Not sure Broberg would leave a Stanley Cup Contender for a short-term play on money.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think Carolina has proven what happens when you try to outsmart other GMs with an offer sheet. You end up overpaying players and giving away draft picks for nothing.

 

[Nico Hischier]

I think Carolina has proven what happens when you try to outsmart other GMs with an offer sheet. You end up overpaying players and giving away draft picks for nothing.

Montreal offersheeted aho which Carolina matched
Next summer Carolina revenge offersheeted kotkaniemi

That wasn’t exactly a terrible move. The terrible move was giving him an 8 year extension when they could have walked away. I doubt Carolina offersheets kotkaniemi if Montreal didn’t offersheet aho in the first place.

 

[dgibb10]

Hum yeah they are, to the teams offering them.

No NHL GM is realistically going to be the one to want to start that pissing match. Best case scenario you pay slightly less than you would in a trade (and way more money), and jack up the prices on every RFA you want to keep going forward.

 

[Mr Positive]

This would be a tactic that we would think all teams want to do. Heck, why not poach a key prospect? Isn't that worth a few million?

The problem is that no, it isn't. When you overpay for an unestablished player it brings lots of issues. First off, an owner has to agree to burn millions on a guess. But fine, there are rich owners who will go along with any expense.

But, then you also have to overpay on their next RFA deal. To qualify them you need to give them a 10 percent raise. There can be a sunk cost logic where this player is perpetually overpaid and you dont want to lose them.

Then, you have the problem of internal negotiation. It's hard to justify to your other RFAs that they need to play for less when you have a golden boy that is getting millions more than they should.

Even if these reasons miss the mark, the fact is that these offer sheets do not happen. It's just fantasies from rival fans and video game logic. In reality, these gambles have lingering consequences.

 

[LTIR]

ANA could sign him to 2.2M x 1 to make Edmonton think. Cost is only a 3rd rounder and it wouldn't seem too bad around the league considering EDM has signed Penner (ANA) in past.

They would still remain under cap floor.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

ANA could sign him to 2.2M x 1 to make Edmonton think. Cost is only a 3rd rounder and it wouldn't seem too bad around the league considering EDM has signed Penner (ANA) in past.

They would still remain under cap floor.

ANA has been a bit cheap in the past but people hope 2nd rounders become Broberg heck late 1sts which would be kind of where Anaheim pick is.

I'd do a 4.4 million 1 year deal without even blinking.

I don't see it done and I mentioned how offersheets should be used more last year on teams like the Rangers and others.

But this could be a solid get.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Montreal offersheeted aho which Carolina matched
Next summer Carolina revenge offersheeted kotkaniemi

That wasn’t exactly a terrible move. The terrible move was giving him an 8 year extension when they could have walked away. I doubt Carolina offersheets kotkaniemi if Montreal didn’t offersheet aho in the first place.

This is my point exactly. The Montreal offer sheet on Aho actually made sense, as he was a star player. The revenge offer sheet for a high potential player who still hadn't put it all together? That was stupid, whether it was revenger or not. While a Broberg offer sheet wouldn't be "revenge", it would be, based on most of the discussions here, an attempt to "screw" the Oilers. For it to screw the Oilers, it would have to be the type of deal that also screws the team going after Broberg. Broberg isn't proven enough to make a large offer sheet to.

ANA has been a bit cheap in the past but people hope 2nd rounders become Broberg heck late 1sts which would be kind of where Anaheim pick is.

I'd do a 4.4 million 1 year deal without even blinking.

I don't see it done and I mentioned how offersheets should be used more last year on teams like the Rangers and others.

But this could be a solid get.

Are you suggesting that Anaheim do the 4.4M offer sheet? Isn't that a 1st and a 3rd compensation? Edmonton likely doesn't match that, and they could end up as a cup contender and winning the draft lottery at the same time if the Ducks did this.

 

[dgibb10]

ANA has been a bit cheap in the past but people hope 2nd rounders become Broberg heck late 1sts which would be kind of where Anaheim pick is.

I'd do a 4.4 million 1 year deal without even blinking.

I don't see it done and I mentioned how offersheets should be used more last year on teams like the Rangers and others.

But this could be a solid get.

God I hate this logic.

"people hope this pick becomes insert quality player".

You don't have to pay your draft pick 4.4 mill like you would be broberg in this scenario

 

[KrisLetAngry]

This is my point exactly. The Montreal offer sheet on Aho actually made sense, as he was a star player. The revenge offer sheet for a high potential player who still hadn't put it all together? That was stupid, whether it was revenger or not. While a Broberg offer sheet wouldn't be "revenge", it would be, based on most of the discussions here, an attempt to "screw" the Oilers. For it to screw the Oilers, it would have to be the type of deal that also screws the team going after Broberg. Broberg isn't proven enough to make a large offer sheet to.


Are you suggesting that Anaheim do the 4.4M offer sheet? Edmonton likely doesn't match that, and they could end up as a cup contender and winning the draft lottery at the same time if the Ducks did this.

4.4 million is only a 2nd round compensation.

The actual number is 4.580917 million (this number I believe is the correct one) Once that number is crossed it becomes a 1st and a third.

God I hate this logic.

"people hope this pick becomes insert quality player".

You don't have to pay your draft pick 4.4 mill like you would be broberg in this scenario

Again. In the post I point out Anaheim has been a tad cheap. You are right you don't have to pay your 2nd round pick 4.4 million. Actually a majority of 2nd round picks barely get coffee in the NHL.

I am a fan of weaponizing cap space. This is how it is done.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

ANA could sign him to 2.2M x 1 to make Edmonton think. Cost is only a 3rd rounder and it wouldn't seem too bad around the league considering EDM has signed Penner (ANA) in past.

They would still remain under cap floor.

Doesn't the next contract need to be 10% more or you lose them as a UFA?

Front loading a contract for the lulz isn't something a GM would do if they value their career.

 

[dgibb10]

4.4 million is only a 2nd round compensation.

The actual number is 4.580917 million (this number I believe is the correct one) Once that number is crossed it becomes a 1st and a third.


Again. In the post I point out Anaheim has been a tad cheap. You are right you don't have to pay your 2nd round pick 4.4 million. Actually a majority of 2nd round picks barely get coffee in the NHL.

I am a fan of weaponizing cap space. This is how it is done.

No, this is how you make sure Zegras, McTavish, Carlsson, Gauthier, Dostal, Mintyukov, etc all have a lot more leverage in their negotiations as RFAs.

Right now, RFAs are incredibly cheap because offer sheets aren't a real threat. You start that war, make them become a real threat, and it could end up costing you millions of dollars a year down the line on every single RFA you try to sign

If those guys all get an extra 300k a year in AAV because you now risk offer sheets, that is nearly 2 mill a year you've just added to your cap, over the course of 5 years you've cost yourself 10 million dollars.

All so you could save a tiny bit of draft capital for the sake of paying Phillip Broberg 4.4 mill.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

No, this is how you make sure Zegras, McTavish, Carlsson, Gauthier, Dostal, Mintyukov, etc all have a lot more leverage in their negotiations as RFAs.

Right now, RFAs are incredibly cheap because offer sheets aren't a real threat. You start that war, make them become a real threat, and it could end up costing you millions of dollars a year down the line on every single RFA you try to sign

If those guys all get an extra 300k a year in AAV because you now risk offer sheets, that is nearly 2 mill a year you've just added to your cap, over the course of 5 years you've cost yourself 10 million dollars.

All so you could save a tiny bit of draft capital for the sake of paying Phillip Broberg 4.4 mill.

I think we will just agree to disagree.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think we will just agree to disagree.

I think there is a reason we rarely see offer sheets. They are a lot more complicated than it seems on the surface.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Forgive my ignorance... but how exactly do the Oilers plan on gettign under the cap, considering they are currently $2.4m over, with Broberg and Holloway to sign?



As for the concept of offer sheets, I think if you're a team in Edmonton's division and/or conference, who likes Broberg or Holloway, then the concept of a 1-year offer sheet is probably not all that risky. You can go up to $4.5m on a 2nd-round offer sheet.

Hand either or both of these guys a 1 year deal at $3.5m... and that puts Edmonton in a really tough position.

Yes, it's not ideal from a long term retention plan, as they can just ride qualifying offers to keep their salary near $3.5m.... but that's not really the end of the world if you believe in these guys.

From Jeff Jackson’s interview after day one of free agency it sounded like he may have Ceci trade in his back pocket. That would line up pretty closely with the money they need to get RFA’s signed and then they’d probably have to run a 21/22 man roster with league min guys in those PB slots.

The other thing that he alluded to is that Evander Kane has some injury issues that will likely require surgery. From the sounds of it their back up option is Kane on ltir to start the year and Jackson said once Kane comes back from his summer he’ll see some specialist get some second opinions. So it sounds like they could be lining up a Kucherov situation where they’ll delay Kane going under the knife until right before the season to push as much of his recovery timeline into the season and buy themselves time to make cap space if need be.