Is Bedard worthy of a 15 mil/8 year contract? CHGO Sports believes so... with link.

[Bombshell11]

15 Mills a year.....?

Click to read more...

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Nope. Gotta earn that type of $$$

 

[Dr Pepper]

I think if he wants to commit fully to Chicago he can lock in at something close to that, but 15x8 still seems pretty steep.

 

[Mrfenn92]

8x $11.5

Bedard still in your head op

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

The cap could potentially be 105 million in 3 years. So a 15 mil cap hit would be 14.2% of a teams cap in that scenario. If Bedard has a very strong 3rd year it could happen.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

 

[Bombshell11]

8x $11.5

Bedard still in your head op

i cant wait for Demidov to come and make you unplug your keyboard

11.5.... when he's RFA?

explain why you think he's worth that money

 

[Mrfenn92]

i cant wait for Demidov to come and make you unplug your keyboard once and for all

I hope nothing but the best for demidov. It’s just funny that bedard bugs you so much

 

[bobholly39]

They simply don't need to go that high?

He hasn't established himself as both Crosby and McDavid had in year 2, as best in league. If he had - he could probably have asked for 15M. But it would be more a case of a player playing hardball and trying to get absolute max value early on, vs it being a fair contract.

If Bedard says flat out "give me 15M, or i'll go RFA and sign an offer sheet", he might get it. But I can't imagine things play out this way.

 

[FlameChampion]

From a pure marketing point of view, he will probably get paid more than his production at least initially. Probably just depends what he’s comfortable accepting.

 

[Bombshell11]

I hope nothing but the best for demidov. It’s just funny that bedard bugs you so much

Its not bedard that bugs me man, i also wish he was as good as advertised... its the freaking circus show the NHL has hired to advertise him everywhere as if he was the MJ of hockey... when he's clearly not there and will never get there...

i have nothing with hockey players.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Its not bedard that bugs me man, i also wish he was as good as advertised... its the freaking circus show the NHL has hired to advertise him everywhere as if he was the MJ of hockey... when he's clearly not there and will never get there...

i have nothing with hockey players.

That’s on you then my man

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

If Bedard says "I only sign for 8 years if you give me 15 mil" then it's probably because he doesn't want to sign for 8 years and wants a shorter term. Wouldn't shock me if Chicago balked though and paid up in that scenario.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This is a rough transcript of how the conversation unfolded to judge and consider the merits of the topics for youself.

First guy: "if Bedard seeks 15 %, about what Matthews and McDavid got on their second deals, Bedard's cap hit would be about $15.6 million. If he isn't producing at their rates by next season, 10-12 % might be more realistic, which could be in the range of $10 million to $13 million"

First guy con't: "So are you willing to give him $15 and change, lock in those 8 years, betting on Bedard, betting he's going to be what people think he is. All the numbers are right there, we've been through it when he hit his 100th game, he was right there with Matthews, ahead of MacKinnon, he's producing where you think with very very little help. Would you be willing to take that bet that in five years or four years that's gonna be a bargain, or do you go with six and a little bit less and then he does become what you think he is, he's in his prime at 26 and now he needs a new contract, right when you are about to be ready to win, or are firmly in that window, you gotta find a new contract for Connor Bedard, which in six years from now, $17, $18, $19 million dollars probably. I am more inclined to take the bet on Bedard. Give him the $15 and whatever and then for 8, and then you know you got Nazar, Korchinski, all these guys who you burned their first year, and they're not gonna break the bank"

Other guy "production with a year and a half with no help, gives you confidence when he gets legitimate help, he'll be putting up numbers worthy of $15 million. That exact conversation is why they brought in [new VP of Hockey Operations ] Chris O'Hearn. This is some who this is their job. Figuring out how to balance all of this and negotiate the right way to ensure that the team's getting what they need, players getting what they need. I think if you can entice Bedard to be like here's $13.5 for six or seven, you might be able to do that because you give yourself a little bit more of that flexibility. But I'm not going to be up in arms if the Blackhawks go max on it, figuring he will earn all of that."

First guy "we have a little bit of PTSD from Stan Bowman because he was always all the money, all the term, all the no movement clauses.. and you've seen teams around the League... and look Connor Bedard idolizes Sidney Crosby, and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are guys who for their entire career have taken less than market value to keep the team competitive and to bring in help for them. I feel like winning is more important, more of a motivator for Connor Bedard than money is, and he's going to have so many opportunities to make extra money outside of the team. Look if he's saying 'no, I want 8 years/$15.6 million, I want 15 % of the salary cap, I will accept no less' great.. I have no problem with that because he has earned it to this point in his career, and fine. But I get the vibe that he'd be more interested in taking a little bit less to help the team out and to help himself out on the ice to get more wins. The kid all he wants to do is play hockey. He has no interest in anything else, there's no off ice, there's no bars at night, the last group of guys, there were always those off ice stories about 'oh they were at such and such bar and doing this and that'. Nope. Connor Bedard doesn't go out. He stays home. So I think he's more interested in winning, and looking just at Sidney Crosby alone, he sees what his willingness to take a little bit less did for him long-term."

 

[Toby91ca]

Nope. Gotta earn that type of $$$

Not really....for the most part....these days, contracts are signed based on future expectations. This makes sense I guess, why would you pay for past service? But it does make me scratch my head when I see certain contracts being signed. Some of them end up being reasonable, some end up being bad overpayments....that's the way it goes when you are trying to project where a player will be.

So for Bedard....wouldn't have much to do with what he's accomplished so far other than considering that past performance to project future performance. Personally, I'd suggest he should be nowhere near $15M...but I always go low.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If Bedard says "I only sign for 8 years if you give me 15 mil" then it's probably because he doesn't want to sign for 8 years and wants a shorter term. Wouldn't shock me if Chicago balked though and paid up in that scenario.

If Bedard were to sign an offer sheet, options are basically:

1) if it's 8 years, match no matter what.. now you have him for 8 years.
2) if it's an intentionally below market deal designed to get to UFA as quickly as possible, match and likely try and trade prior to when the contract expires unless you're competing for Cups by the end.. now you benefit from the cap savings in the immediate term and his "semi rental" value close to his prime if he's itching to walk will also likely be really high.
3) If it's a goofy Matthews deal with max cap AND low-term (Matthews signed 15 % for 5 years) then seriously consider taking the massive draft haul at that level of Offer-Sheet and leave the new team (that lost their draft picks) with the dilemma of best case a re-up at $19 million in five years, and worst case, he walks in UFA at that time. Good luck. I don't think any team would actually sign him to that offer sheet for the reasons above.

Offer Sheet Compensation Levels:

$1,511,701 AAV or less - No compensation

$1,5111,701 to $2,290,457 - 3rd round pick

$2,290,457 to $4,580,917 - 2nd round pick

$4,580,917 to $6,871,374 - 1st and 3rd round picks

$6,871,374 to $9,161,834 - 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks

$9,161,834 to $11,452,294 - Two 1st's, 2nd and 3rd round picks

Above $11,452,294 - Four 1st round picks


The one really bad case scenario for the Hawks is signing Bedard to a Matthews 5-year deal where you get no benefit of more immediate cap savings and also don't get the benefit of a potential bargain on the back half in the player's prime. If Matthews had signed an 8-year extension at the same cap, he'd be at a very good $11.64 million cap hit with two more years remaining after this one and then still only due up one year earlier than his current actual 4 year contract at $13.25 million. Matthews put the Leafs in a far from ideal position, but a position that in all likelihood will greatly maximize his own career earnings.

Dubas should have never let Matthews sign that 5-year contract coming off his ELC with no real leverage in the form of arbitration rights and only being able to sign an offer sheet. We have not really seen any other player try and do that since Matthews. It's a very goofy thing to allow a player coming off an ELC to do.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Whatever keeps Bedard's cap hit the lowest when the Hawks are hopefully ready to compete in 3ish seasons. Keep the window open for as long as you can. Chicago just brought in some new hire formerly from the Wild who specified in contract negotiations so I'm sure they're seriously considering it in the Front Office.

I'm not worried about it at all. Bedard will get what he's worth.

 

[Romang67]

Its not bedard that bugs me man, i also wish he was as good as advertised... its the freaking circus show the NHL has hired to advertise him everywhere as if he was the MJ of hockey... when he's clearly not there and will never get there...

i have nothing with hockey players.

I live in the Chicagoland area but am not a Blackhawks fan, and I hear about Bedard once in a blue moon. Are you sure the NHL is advertising him everywhere as if he were the MJ of hockey?

 

[authentic]

He hasn’t done anything to show he’ll be as good as Marner yet so I’m not sure how he would get anything more than 8 million a year until he reaches another level. He’s currently light years away from being a 14 or 15 million player even with the rising cap. Of course that could change quickly in the next few seasons but could is the key word here.

 

[dgibb10]

If he was a UFA I'd offer him that in a heartbeat yeah (especially if I was a team looking to compete later rather than now). He'll likely provide that much value over the life of the deal.

But he has 4 years of RFA control, so no reason to offer him that. The whole value of these young RFAs is that the leverage allows you to get them at a price where you get SURPLUS value

 

[Crow]

He hasn’t done anything to show he’ll be as good as Marner yet so I’m not sure how he would get anything more than 8 million a year until he reaches another level. He’s currently light years away from being a 14 or 15 million player even with the rising cap. Of course that could change quickly in the next few seasons but could is the key word here.

His production is like 2 years ahead of marner at the same age on a much worse team. Weird player to compare him to anyway.

Also consider that they have different GMs. Remains to be seen how well the hawks negotiate as opposed to just bending over and asking for it dry.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Its not bedard that bugs me man, i also wish he was as good as advertised... its the freaking circus show the NHL has hired to advertise him everywhere as if he was the MJ of hockey... when he's clearly not there and will never get there...

i have nothing with hockey players.

Maybe grow up then? You probably were upset that Toews took a picture with Lemieux, Orr, and Gretzky too. The NHL markets its stars, get over it.

 

[x Tame Impala]

But he has 4 years of RFA control, so no reason to offer him that. The whole value of these young RFAs is that the leverage allows you to get them at a price where you get SURPLUS value

The argument is that players realize their best years are in their early to mid twenties for the most part. If it's believed they'll likely become one of the better players in the league, they don't want to take less money like they would have previously on these RFA to UFA deals.

I'm not happy that Dubas gave Matthews these short term contracts but I totally understand it from Matthews perspective. There's a chance (I think Bedard has Matthew's agent) that Bedard will follow suit.

 

[Stealth JD]

He should get a bridge
2 x $8M

 

[No Fun Shogun]

As of now, no. But the Hawks haven't given him a lot to thrive with so far, so at this point I don't think he's in a mood to do the team many favors cap-wise. I doubt he gets $15m per, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was close to that. If he gets below $12m or $13m, I'll be surprised.

If he takes a bridge, I'll be very worried.