Rumor: In-season Proposals, Rumors, Free Agents & Roster Moves (related topics) LXXXI

[Foppa2118]

The distinction you are making between players drafted with their own picks and picks they traded for, just to argue that picks traded for doesn't matter so Avs shouldn't bother, isn't very logical.

Everyone knows most picks in round 3 or later most likely won't give you a NHL player. Some do. That's the entire point of trying to accumulate picks. You get more chances of hitting.

Tampa went down their draft lists and if they happened to pick a guy with their own pick or a pick they've traded for is pure randomness. That doesn't make their own pick they've drafted Palat with more worth than any other 7th rounder.

It's perfectly logical. The point everyone is trying to make is that it's important to gain assets when you can. If the assets/draft picks you acquire don't turn into useful NHLer, it's not as important as people are making it out to be.

Furthermore, it's very unlikely for most draft picks past the first round to be useful players.

Drafting Palat with their own pick in the 7th round and signing Johnson as a FA isn't relevant to Tampa's additional benefit from moving players for assets, the same way the Avs own picks, and and free agent signings like Everberg, Rendulic, and which ever College and European signings they make this year isn't brought up either.

i'm not sure how it is that relevant that they missed/haven't panned out yet with those picks as they could take more chances with more picks and they used at least one of those picks (along with conacher) to acquire their current starting goalie.

maybe they take peca instead with their 7th rounder in ´11 and miss out on palat, for example.

i think that list is also missing gusev fwiw.

I'm not arguing that getting two cracks at something unlikely isn't better than one. I'm arguing that the benefit isn't nearly what people think, since the chances are still pretty small.

As for these butterfly effect hypothetical situations, if you bring those up, you have to include hypotheticals that work the other way too, leading to something negative, so it's just better not to bring up either. You might as well just base things on direct connections to what you know happened.

I didn't list Gusev in the 7th round because his pick was just a small part of a complicated hockey trade, not really an example of moving a player you don't need for an asset. Not that he looks particularly promising as an NHL at this point either.

Tampa traded Sebastien Caron, two 2012 second-round draft picks and a 2013 third-round draft pick to Nashville for Anders Lindback, Kyle Wilson and a 2012 seventh-round draft pick (Gusev).

 

[EdAVSfan]

Hejda is also 36 and will be 37 when FA begins, if you trade him and he doesn't resign I don't see the big issue. Sure he's in the top 4 but he's not gonna be around much longer. He's also going to be on a 35+ contract so not sure I'd be comfortable handing out any term to him.
Palat was Tampa's 7th while Peca was the one picked after a trade, if they didn't have two maybe they go Peca since Palat was a 20 year old in his 3rd draft who could've been signed if not drafted. They saw something in him and knowing they had two 7ths they could take a chance.

Drafting is only one part of building a team, development is another, Roy wants to overhaul the drafting philosophy but the development needs it too. The Avs have done well with most high picks but outside of that it hasn't been that good. Doesn't matter how many picks you have if you can't develop any of them.

Interestingly, I dont see it that way.

On the other hand, I see 2 potential "big issues".

First, if you trade Hejda, and can't re-sign him, then you have to go out and get a replacement. Unless you want Guenin in the top 4. That replacement could be better or worse than Hejda. But he could also require more term on his contract and/or higher pay.
So there are some significant cap risks and term risks with trying to fill out that spot. Hejda, for all we know, may be willing to take 1 or 2 years at a smaller cap hit than what a UFA replacement would cost.

The second, is what if you strike out on getting a guy to play with EJ. Now youre stuck having to fill the top 2 left handed d-spots with prospects/UFAs. Thats where youre likely to get more desperate and offer overpayments to UFAs, or unreasonable term to UFAs, because youre so much more desperate to fill that spot.

Most people on this board dont think we'll be able to land even 1 good free agent d-man. Whats the likelihood we can get 2 without paying through the nose?

 

[tigervixxxen]

With the attention I pay to prospects I'd love to have more picks so I can't say I'd argue against the points about needing to have them. But like I said yesterday it's clear they don't follow an asset management philosophy so judging them against those standards and expectations will always come up short. It's not from stupidity, it's a different way of thinking. Now everyone is free to argue why having that philosophy is bad and I'm sure will continue to do so. But it's also about managing expectations.

On the Hejda thing, I'm not convinced they've decided to keep him. If they manage to get an upgrade I'm sure most here would prefer that at the end of the day. Maybe it's like what Foppa has been saying for a while about having him around for plan B.

Sadly nobody probably offered anything for Briere. I'm sure he'd rather be anywhere than on the pine here.

 

[Freudian]

It's perfectly logical. The point everyone is trying to make is that it's important to gain assets when you can. If the assets/draft picks you acquire don't turn into useful NHLer, it's not as important as people are making it out to be.

If you truly believe an own 7th rounder is worth more than a traded for 7th rounder because in this example Tampa got the better player with their original pick then discussing this is a waste of time.

 

[InjuredChoker]

With the attention I pay to prospects I'd love to have more picks so I can't say I'd argue against the points about needing to have them. But like I said yesterday it's clear they don't follow an asset management philosophy so judging them against those standards and expectations will always come up short. It's not from stupidity, it's a different way of thinking. Now everyone is free to argue why having that philosophy is bad and I'm sure will continue to do so. But it's also about managing expectations.

On the Hejda thing, I'm not convinced they've decided to keep him. If they manage to get an upgrade I'm sure most here would prefer that at the end of the day. Maybe it's like what Foppa has been saying for a while about having him around for plan B.

Sadly nobody probably offered anything for Briere. I'm sure he'd rather be anywhere than on the pine here.

has this been confirmed?

 

[ABasin]

With the attention I pay to prospects I'd love to have more picks so I can't say I'd argue against the points about needing to have them. But like I said yesterday it's clear they don't follow an asset management philosophy so judging them against those standards and expectations will always come up short. It's not from stupidity, it's a different way of thinking.

Which will bite them in the ass eventually. Ah well….

I would really like to see them play Hishon, Elliott, and Rendulic (when he gets healthy) a fair amount here over the last 20ish games. Perhaps Caron and Clark also. And I'd like to see them give those guys meaningful minutes, rather than solely depth minutes. What have they got to lose?

I'm also really on the fence as to whether EJ should play again this season. If he does, I have a feeling I'm going to cringe every time he comes close to getting hit.

 

[tigervixxxen]

has this been confirmed?

No, that's why I said probably. But him still sitting I can't imagine that was the plan either preferred.

 

[Foppa2118]

Hejda is also 36 and will be 37 when FA begins, if you trade him and he doesn't resign I don't see the big issue. Sure he's in the top 4 but he's not gonna be around much longer. He's also going to be on a 35+ contract so not sure I'd be comfortable handing out any term to him.

Palat was Tampa's 7th while Peca was the one picked after a trade, if they didn't have two maybe they go Peca since Palat was a 20 year old in his 3rd draft who could've been signed if not drafted. They saw something in him and knowing they had two 7ths they could take a chance.

Drafting is only one part of building a team, development is another, Roy wants to overhaul the drafting philosophy but the development needs it too. The Avs have done well with most high picks but outside of that it hasn't been that good. Doesn't matter how many picks you have if you can't develop any of them.

Well this is the real issue. People don't think Hejda's good, which you're certainly entitled to your opinion on but I also don't think it could be more wrong. People are obsessed with his age, and forget that he's still pretty solid defensively on most nights playing in a top pairing role, and isn't a big injury concern, meaning he'd still be perfectly fine in a 2nd or 3rd pairing role. Adding a hell of a lot more to the team than what likely will turn out to be either a non NHLer, or a worse one than Hejda.

You can't bring up these hypothetical scenarios like the additional 7th lead to Palat. All you know is they made the trade and picked up Peca with that pick. They very well could have left that draft with Palat without the additional 7th. In fact, if Palat wasn't so good and it was an example of just a decent NHL player, an equally possible scenario would be they would have taken a player that went undrafted in actuality, but turned out better than either. You could play this butterfly effect game for days and twist it in whatever fashion that best suits your point.

 

[Foppa2118]

If you truly believe an own 7th rounder is worth more than a traded for 7th rounder because in this example Tampa got the better player with their original pick then discussing this is a waste of time.

It may be a waste of time but more because you completely missed the point.

It has nothing to do with Tampa's own pick being more valuable than another 7th round pick. It has to do with how valuable a 7th round pick is in actuality.

 

[ABasin]

has this been confirmed?

I think TV said 'probably'. And I think she's correct. Even though Sakic has shown he has no clue on earth what to do with upcoming UFAs, Briere has been fairly bad for Colorado for much of the season. And he's often sitting the bench on a team with fairly mediocre depth lines. Not hard to imagine that even a UFA-competent GM would have trouble moving Briere.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

With the attention I pay to prospects I'd love to have more picks so I can't say I'd argue against the points about needing to have them. But like I said yesterday it's clear they don't follow an asset management philosophy so judging them against those standards and expectations will always come up short. It's not from stupidity, it's a different way of thinking. Now everyone is free to argue why having that philosophy is bad and I'm sure will continue to do so. But it's also about managing expectations.

On the Hejda thing, I'm not convinced they've decided to keep him. If they manage to get an upgrade I'm sure most here would prefer that at the end of the day. Maybe it's like what Foppa has been saying for a while about having him around for plan B.

Sadly nobody probably offered anything for Briere. I'm sure he'd rather be anywhere than on the pine here.

And this is why I said earlier the Avs were hedging their bets by not trading him at the TDL. Hejda is not going anywhere until July 1st and he won't be one of the first one signed on that day. The Avs will have a few days before July 1st to gauge if they can sign one or more UFA dmen. Then on July 1st they will try to do just that. If they can't get anything better than Hejda, then they sign him. They can also sign him early to cover themselves.

Hejda still with the team today means insurance for next year.

 

[Avs_19]

Which will bite them in the ass eventually. Ah well….

I would really like to see them play Hishon, Elliott, and Rendulic (when he gets healthy) a fair amount here over the last 20ish games. Perhaps Caron and Clark also. And I'd like to see them give those guys meaningful minutes, rather than solely depth minutes. What have they got to lose?

I'm also really on the fence as to whether EJ should play again this season. If he does, I have a feeling I'm going to cringe every time he comes close to getting hit.

I don't think he should. The other day I believe Roy said he'll start skating some time in the next two weeks. There's not a lot of season left after that point. We're not making the playoffs so why risk it?

I cringe every time Varly takes a bit longer than normal to get back up after making a save.

 

[AMDZen]

Nuggets fired Shaw. Just thought I would mention it since we've talked about Kroenkes in this thread

 

[dahrougem2]

I think TV said 'probably'. And I think she's correct. Even though Sakic has shown he has no clue on earth what to do with upcoming UFAs, Briere has been fairly bad for Colorado for much of the season. And he's often sitting the bench on a team with fairly mediocre depth lines. Not hard to imagine that even a UFA-competent GM would have trouble moving Briere.

That's a rather bold statement for not knowing what actually goes on with his day-to-day dealings with other GM's

 

[Freudian]

It may be a waste of time but more because you completely missed the point.

It has nothing to do with Tampa's own pick being more valuable than another 7th round pick. It has to do with how valuable a 7th round pick is in actuality.

No one is arguing that a single 7th rounder has big value. But teams that make an effort to accumulate picks will have a big advantage over time compared to teams that don't.

Since Roy and Sakic took over they've traded 2014 2nd round pick, 2015 5th round pick, 2016 2nd round pick and 2017 7th round pick. The only pick coming in is a 6th round pick in 2016.

It was even worse during the last regime, where they went through a rebuild 2009-2012 and had on average 6.5 picks/draft. What team goes through a rebuild without accumulating any picks?

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

For a GM that doesn't know what to do with UFA's he sure got a lot for Stolley

 

[ABasin]

No one is arguing that a single 7th rounder has big value. But teams that make an effort to accumulate picks will have a big advantage over time compared to teams that don't.

Since Roy and Sakic took over they've traded 2014 2nd round pick, 2015 5th round pick, 2016 2nd round pick and 2017 7th round pick. The only pick coming in is a 6th round pick in 2016.

It was even worse during the last regime, where they went through a rebuild 2009-2012 and had on average 6.5 picks/draft. What team goes through a rebuild without accumulating any picks?

The Colorado Avalanche.

 

[AslanRH]

anyone up for avatar bet on ROR trade return? i don't think he'll return zadorov, morrissey or nurse etv.

I'm in

I think he'll return a 6.75m cap hit

 

[ABasin]

That's a rather bold statement for not knowing what actually goes on with his day-to-day dealings with other GM's

No more or less than someone saying "Sakic's doing a good job as a GM". Both sides of the same coin.

If being in the actual Avs' management conference rooms is necessary to offer an opinion, then we may as well shut this forum down.

 

[Foppa2118]

No one is arguing that a single 7th rounder has big value. But teams that make an effort to accumulate picks will have a big advantage over time compared to teams that don't.

Since Roy and Sakic took over they've traded 2014 2nd round pick, 2015 5th round pick, 2016 2nd round pick and 2017 7th round pick. The only pick coming in is a 6th round pick in 2016.

It was even worse during the last regime, where they went through a rebuild 2009-2012 and had on average 6.5 picks/draft. What team goes through a rebuild without accumulating any picks?

The idea is that if the odds are that low, it's not the huge benefit people seem to think, adding another pick. Adding more picks to increase your chance is nice, but it doesn't benefit the team significantly more than the benefit that keeping Hejda brings. That was the purpose of me showing how Tampa has benefited from the picks they've acquired for players they didn't want, since they were originally brought up as an example.

I also don't think an examination on the two years Sakic and Roy have had a chance to bring in draft picks is necessarily fair. They're coming out of a rebuild not going into it first of all. Second they haven't had that many pending UFA's that would bring back anything. It's Stastny and Hejda and that's bascially it.

Other than that it's basically Benoit, Sarich, Malone, and Briere (this year) whom nobody was going to give up anything for, or perhaps in the case of Briere he didn't want to move. As I mentioned earlier, Tampa and the Sens are the only two other teams this year who have two or fewer pending UFA's on the big club. Wilson doesn't really count in that sense, since he's been out all year.

They just haven't had many options to gain assets, and the ones they did have, they felt it benefited them to keep. Something I personally agree with in the case of Stastny and Hejda.

 

[EdAVSfan]

No more or less than someone saying "Sakic's doing a good job as a GM". Both sides of the same coin.

If being in the actual Avs' management conference rooms is necessary to offer an opinion, then we may as well shut this forum down.

Agreed.

However what I think most posters have issues with, (including myself) is, whether pro or con to any subject, the manner with which posters present their opinions.

Many posters dont type as if its an opinion being stated. I know that obviously since its on this forum, it is logically always an opinion, but its still irritating to read words spoken in absolutes, on either side of the coin.

 

[Drij]

No more or less than someone saying "Sakic's doing a good job as a GM". Both sides of the same coin.

If being in the actual Avs' management conference rooms is necessary to offer an opinion, then we may as well shut this forum down.

its only been a year and a half since he took over...

 

[AslanRH]

Agreed.

I think, what most posters issues, including myself, is, whether pro or con to any subject, the manner in which posters present their opinions.

Many posters dont type as if its an opinion being stated. I know that obviously since its on this forum, it is, logically always an opinion, its still irritating to read words spoken in absolutes, on either side of the coin.

Adding in how often many show little to no respect for the differing opinions from their own.

I usually enjoy the discussion and differing opinions and often find my own changing with all the information and perspectives provided. It is not the negativity, but the way so many disparage and almost ridicule the opposing side of an opinion that create the "toxic" environment around here.

JMHO

 

[Thepoolmaster]

has this been confirmed?

A lot of these older players like Olli Jokinen and Talbot were traded for very little return with salary retained. Briere at 50% retained is 2 million. Not many top teams could afford him. I think its safe to say no team wanted him.

 

[AvsRobin]

A lot of these older players like Olli Jokinen and Talbot were traded for very little return with salary retained. Briere at 50% retained is 2 million. Not many top teams could afford him. I think its safe to say no team wanted him.

Maybe this was the case. But I have a hard time believing Jokinen could fetch a decent return and Danny boy couldn't.