NHL Entry Draft If Zadina falls to the Sens should they take him?

[bert]

If Zadina doesn't drop, I hope we take Dobson; Ottawa doesn't seem interested in Dobson, yet they are supposedly high on Bouchard, why? Bouchard has a lesser defensive game and is slower skating.

Plus, he kinda has the Cowen eyes. I don't trust him on that alone..

I agree, doesnt make much sense to me either. The sens dont put any weight in the player being a later birth year from what I understand, which to me is exceptionally flawed.

I really have no idea what they are going to do and im certainly not confident about it.

 

[OgieO]

I'm on record as liking Dobson more... but I see the Bouchard angle from the Sens POV:
- Bouchard was 8th in the O in scoring. That's pretty phenomenal for a D, let alone a draft eligible D on a rebuilding team.
- Bouchard has NHL ready tools in his shot and passing ability. His passing ability isn't noted enough imo, might be his best asset right now.
- Bouchard supposedly has great hockey sense, I hate to conclude on this as it's not always obvious but hard to be that productive as a D without tremendous hockey sense.
- He's a great character player, leader of his team and a hard worker (as per reports)
- He's not maxxed out yet. I think this is what sets Dobson apart, but same holds for Bouchard. He produces but still needs to improve his skating. What happens if he does? Of he doesn't he'll still probably be an asset, if he does his ceiling is waaaaay up there.

So, I see a ton to like about both Dobson and Bouchard - both have a pretty filthy resume to be honest.

 

[Sens in Process]

Bouchard looks like a 26 year old, but he can certainly add pounds to that frame.

Dobson and Tkachuk can definitely get a lot bigger.

How much do you think it impacts Hughes draft status if ends being sub 5-10? Could he have a significant fall? He looked tiny next to his draft class on Coach's corner.

I think this is something to really watch out for this draft.

If he is there in the mid teens, Ottawa could make a serious play for him.

It wouldn't be the first time a highly thought of D-man slides.

Have we heard anything on the two other visitors to Ottawa yet?

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Bouchard looks like a 26 year old, but he can certainly add pounds to that frame.

Dobson and Tkachuk can definitely get a lot bigger.

How much do you think it impacts Hughes draft status if ends being sub 5-10? Could he have a significant fall? He looked tiny next to his draft class on Coach's corner.

I think this is something to really watch out for this draft.

If he is there in the mid teens, Ottawa could make a serious play for him.

It wouldn't be the first time a highly thought of D-man slides.

Have we heard anything on the two other visitors to Ottawa yet?

If a top D-man is going to slide, it's definitely Boqvist. I can't see Hughes dropping past 10... but what do I know.

 

[branch]

How does one come to that conclusion? What exactly are the indications that he's done growning while a guy like Wahlstrom is not? Is this just a hunch, or is there some sort of evidence that suggests this may be the case? I'm honestly unsure how you'd come to this conclusion. I can find data on Hughes and Zadina's fathers, both of which are around the same size or smaller than they are, but nothing on Bouchard. To me, this would suggest Those two are slightly more likely to be on the tail end of their growth curve, but I have insufficient evidence to even guess wrt Bouchard.

I'm also unsure why limited potential for growth in terms of his size and strength would be a concern with Bouchard; it's not size and strength that are considered the hallmarks of his game, rather it's his passing, and shot, along with his ability to read the play offensively and create chances. What holds him back is his defensive game, but he has the frame to succeed at the NHL level once he cleans up the mental portion of his defensive game.

Just my own intuition. Ocular human patdown. I've gotten pretty good at it over 29 years of being a human. I've also heard from people who watch him on a regular basis that he's a mess, all over the place in his own end. He can score though. It's funny because a guy like Merkley also produces in a much smaller frame but everyone hates him, he's also a mess in his own zone, but he is damaged goods. Bouchard on the other hand produces as well, but everyone thinks he is the next coming.

Not that I want Merkley just using him as a comparison.

 

[stempniaksen]

If a top D-man is going to slide, it's definitely Boqvist. I can't see Hughes dropping past 10... but what do I know.

This. I would bet something fairly significant that Hughes does not drop out of the top-10. Honestly, if he's still there when the Oilers are set to pick I would hope Dorion does everything in his power to move up to get him.

 

[branch]

Hard not to get excited about the possibility of adding a talent like Bouchard to our blueline.

I don't see anything special at all. His skating is atrocious as well. People should want more at 4th overall. This is the quintessential Ottawa Senators Safe Pick TM.

 

[Micklebot]

I agree, doesnt make much sense to me either. The sens dont put any weight in the player being a later birth year from what I understand, which to me is exceptionally flawed.

I really have no idea what they are going to do and im certainly not confident about it.

I think the issue of cut-offs is far more complicated than most are willing to admit. At least some of the research in the area that I've seen (for example, this) suggest late birthdays are actually more favourable, not less

Relative age effects (RAEs) occur when those who are relatively older for their age group are more likely to succeed. RAEs occur reliably in some educational and athletic contexts, yet the causal mechanisms remain unclear. Here we provide the first direct test of one mechanism, selection bias, which can be defined as evaluators granting fewer opportunities to relatively younger individuals than is warranted by their latent ability. Because RAEs are well-established in hockey, we analyzed National Hockey League (NHL) drafts from 1980 to 2006. Compared to those born in the first quarter (i.e., January–March), those born in the third and fourth quarters were drafted more than 40 slots later than their productivity warranted, and they were roughly twice as likely to reach career benchmarks, such as 400 games played or 200 points scored. This selection bias in drafting did not decrease over time, apparently continues to occur, and reduces the playing opportunities of relatively younger players. This bias is remarkable because it is exhibited by professional decision makers evaluating adults in a context where RAEs have been widely publicized. Thus, selection bias based on relative age may be pervasive.

Now, it's not a perfect analogue, because it omits 2nd quarter (Apr-Jun) and the 3rd and 4th Quarter is only about 60% what you're terming as late year picks, so perhaps the "youngest" players in the draft are skewing things in a positive manner, but there are a lot of variable to consider.



Edit: Here's another study

Like many sports in adolescence, junior hockey is organized by age groups. Typically, players born after December 31st are placed in the subsequent age cohort and as a result, will have an age advantage over those players born closer to the end of the year. While this relative age effect (RAE) has been well-established in junior hockey and other professional sports, the long-term impact of this phenomenon is not well understood. Using roster data on North American National Hockey League (NHL) players from the 2008–2009 season to the 2015–2016 season, we document a RAE reversal—players born in the last quarter of the year (October-December) score more and command higher salaries than those born in the first quarter of the year. This reversal is even more pronounced among the NHL “elite.” We find that among players in the 90th percentile of scoring, those born in the last quarter of the year score about 9 more points per season than those born in the first quarter. Likewise, elite players in the 90th percentile of salary who are born in the last quarter of the year earn 51% more pay than players born at the start of the year. Surprisingly, compared to players at the lower end of the performance distribution, the RAE reversal is about three to four times greater among elite players.

Surprisingly, few studies have examined the RAE on player productivity in the National Hockey League (NHL) [7, 8]. In these studies, there is evidence of a RAE reversal. Although players born at the end of the year are less likely to make the NHL, of those who do, they played more games, scored more points, and earned higher salaries [7, 8]. We argue that although the RAE appears to initially favor relatively older players in the minor leagues, if relatively younger players make the NHL, they will likely outperform their peers across a number of outcomes. Thus, being an “underdog” in the minor leagues may lead to improved performance in the NHL

 

[Sens in Process]

If a top D-man is going to slide, it's definitely Boqvist. I can't see Hughes dropping past 10... but what do I know.

Boqvist is a good one, with his apparent concussion issues.

 

[Micklebot]

I don't see anything special at all. His skating is atrocious as well. People should want more at 4th overall. This is the quintessential Ottawa Senators Safe Pick TM.

Ignoring my personal opinion from viewings, this goes against what every scouting profile, and draft guide I've read says, and is contrary to his performance at the CHL combine skills testing where he finished 2nd in the backwards skating test. He's not as fine of a skater as others in the top end of the draft, but to say his skating is atrocious is frankly bizarre.

 

[branch]

Ignoring my personal opinion from viewings, this goes against what every scouting profile, and draft guide I've read says, and is contrary to his performance at the CHL combine skills testing where he finished 2nd in the backwards skating test. He's not as fine of a skater as others in the top end of the draft, but to say his skating is atrocious is frankly bizarre.

That's fine. I just don't like him. I would pick another player. Skating is obviously a huge asset these days. All the top guys have elite skating. if you are struggling with separation speed in junior, he will struggle big time next year when he is in the NHL apparently. At 4 there are guys who have top level skating.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Bouchard's play this year particularly warrants that he be considered in the top 5-6 picks... He will most certainly go top 10. I will trust our scouts to get us a really good player at 4

 

[aragorn]

Would you take Tkachuk with 2nd overall?

IMO there are about 6 prospects that any team could make an argument for to take between 2 & 7. Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Zadina, Dobson or Bouchard if they are picking for need & I assume someone could make an argument for best player available. There are a couple of others that some are quite high on as well but for me these are the best players after Dahlin is off the board if Buffalo selects him which I think they will.

Svechnikov was my first choice before the lottery which resulted in Ottawa picking 4th because I think he is simply too talented in every aspect of the game & he has ample size to handle himself & plays a good two way game. Tkachuk became my next choice because he too has good size & frame should get stronger & potentially bigger & will be able to handle the rough going in front of the net where he usually ends up. He is also highly skilled, has a high hockey IQ, is a good skater & playmaker & makes those around him better & tougher. I like Kotkaniemi a lot & it wouldn't hurt Ottawa to have another good sized centre playing someday behind or in front of Logan Brown at centre. I still believe you win with size & strength down the middle & Kot seems to have that plus skill, vision & a good playmaking game as well. Zadina is more or less like another Hoffman, a sniper, he is an excellent skater, provides an excellent wrist shot, can score from almost anywhere but does not have as much of a physical game & I'm not sure how he would do in a very rough game although that would not be a reason not to pick him.

The defencemen speak for themselves & there are pros & cons with both of them but I doubt a team can go wrong with either of them. If the need for a defenceman is greater than maybe a team would go for them, there is a defenceman going first overall in this draft & I don't think these two are that much further behind him in terms of talent. 2nd overall I would probably stick with my first conclusion & pick Svechnikov but I like all of the tangibles with Tkachuk a lot. I would also listen to everyone concerned regarding pros & cons on all five of these guys & try to come up with a consensus of some kind. I have them as Svechnikov, Tkachuk, Kotkaniemi & Zadina in that order for forwards but I don't think Ottawa could go wrong with any one of them tbh but I love the way Tkachuk plays the game & makes his teammates better IMO, like Stone does & he's no speedster.

 

[SPF6ty9]

I don't see anything special at all. His skating is atrocious as well. People should want more at 4th overall. This is the quintessential Ottawa Senators Safe Pick TM.

Some of the things Bouchard does well are not obvious on highlight videos, ie. setting up passing lanes with his eyes, slight movements. I don't have any doubt the guy has a great hockey sense and would be a great addition to the powerplay pretty much immediately. He wouldn't be my first choice with our pick, but I would be fine if he is the pick.

Also I believe his brother is in the Toronto FC system. Shows that there is definitely some athletic genes in that family.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

Take the best player available. And the best player available is more than likely going to be zadina or tkachuk

 

[aragorn]

Take the best player available. And the best player available is more than likely going to be zadina or tkachuk

There could be 5 or 6 players that teams have as the best player available at that spot & I would think if there is a great need for something that it could play into it as well. Should be interesting what happens & all the comments after they make their choice pro & con which we know will be plenty.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Take the best player available. And the best player available is more than likely going to be zadina or tkachuk

Exactly. Or Boqvist but his concussion history really has hampered his draft value or he'd be right there with Zadina. I also would put Kotk in there too.

 

[BondraTime]

Exactly. Or Boqvist but his concussion history really has hampered his draft value or he'd be right there with Zadina. I also would put Kotk in there too.

Boqvist has been on the outside looking in for the past 6 months, and is continuing to drop

 

[aligator]

I agree, doesnt make much sense to me either. The sens dont put any weight in the player being a later birth year from what I understand, which to me is exceptionally flawed.

I really have no idea what they are going to do and im certainly not confident about it.

I think Bouchard has a better offensive game.

 

[aligator]

This. I would bet something fairly significant that Hughes does not drop out of the top-10. Honestly, if he's still there when the Oilers are set to pick I would hope Dorion does everything in his power to move up to get him.

Sens may well trade for Oilers pick.

 

[aligator]

I don't see anything special at all. His skating is atrocious as well. People should want more at 4th overall. This is the quintessential Ottawa Senators Safe Pick TM.

Absolute poppycock...simply wrong.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Boqvist has been on the outside looking in for the past 6 months, and is continuing to drop

Nah he's been consensus top 4-5 until he got injured late April.

 

[BondraTime]

Nah he's been consensus top 4-5 until he got injured late April.

He really hasn't

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Nah he's been consensus top 4-5 until he got injured late April.

he's been dropping .. he started off around there

 

[Sensung]

IMO there are about 6 prospects that any team could make an argument for to take between 2 & 7. Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Zadina, Dobson or Bouchard if they are picking for need & I assume someone could make an argument for best player available. There are a couple of others that some are quite high on as well but for me these are the best players after Dahlin is off the board if Buffalo selects him which I think they will.

Svechnikov was my first choice before the lottery which resulted in Ottawa picking 4th because I think he is simply too talented in every aspect of the game & he has ample size to handle himself & plays a good two way game. Tkachuk became my next choice because he too has good size & frame should get stronger & potentially bigger & will be able to handle the rough going in front of the net where he usually ends up. He is also highly skilled, has a high hockey IQ, is a good skater & playmaker & makes those around him better & tougher. I like Kotkaniemi a lot & it wouldn't hurt Ottawa to have another good sized centre playing someday behind or in front of Logan Brown at centre. I still believe you win with size & strength down the middle & Kot seems to have that plus skill, vision & a good playmaking game as well. Zadina is more or less like another Hoffman, a sniper, he is an excellent skater, provides an excellent wrist shot, can score from almost anywhere but does not have as much of a physical game & I'm not sure how he would do in a very rough game although that would not be a reason not to pick him.

The defencemen speak for themselves & there are pros & cons with both of them but I doubt a team can go wrong with either of them. If the need for a defenceman is greater than maybe a team would go for them, there is a defenceman going first overall in this draft & I don't think these two are that much further behind him in terms of talent. 2nd overall I would probably stick with my first conclusion & pick Svechnikov but I like all of the tangibles with Tkachuk a lot. I would also listen to everyone concerned regarding pros & cons on all five of these guys & try to come up with a consensus of some kind. I have them as Svechnikov, Tkachuk, Kotkaniemi & Zadina in that order for forwards but I don't think Ottawa could go wrong with any one of them tbh but I love the way Tkachuk plays the game & makes his teammates better IMO, like Stone does & he's no speedster.

Thanks for the detailed response.

There are lots of good options for the Sens at 4.