I think Calgary makes the most sense for a Marner blockbuster. Remember we made that huge Phaneuf trade with them on January 31st, 2010... That could be the time both teams decide to make a huge shakeup if things are not going their way.
LW Matthew Tkachuk
LD Noah Hanifin
LD/RD Nikita Zadorov
LW Andrew Mangiapane
RW Mitchell Marner
LD Morgan Rielly
LD/RD Travis Dermott
LW Pierre Engvall
And even the value with picks. Leafs will want an extension done with Tkachuk, and Calgary one with Rielly.
For this year, Calgary is taking on 528k in cap. Next year, Calgary has 29 mill in cap space. Add in Marner/Dermott and take out Hanifin, and that goes down to 21.5 mill.
They need to sign Engvall instead of Mangiapane up front but they need to sign/replace Gaudreau and Rielly's extension will be fairly expensive as well. This will be what their lineup would look like with around 4 mill in cap space to fill the ???'s and add depth:
Coleman-Lindholm-Marner
Gaudreau (UFA)-Backlund-Dube
Pelletier-Monahan-???
Lucic-???-Engvall (RFA)
Rielly (UFA)-Andersson
Valimaki-Tanev
Kylington (RFA)-Dermott
Markstrom-Vladar
For the rest of this year, this is what the Leafs would look like:
Tkachuk-Matthews-Mangiapane
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase (bottom 6 shutdown)
Ritchie-Kerfoot-Spezza (bottom 6 offense)
Simmonds
Hanifin-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Zadorov
Liljegren
Mrazek-Campbell
PP1
Tkachuk
Nylander-Tavares-Matthews
Hanifin
PP2
Ritchie
Mangiapane-Bunting-Spezza
Sandin
PK Forwards
Kase, Nylander, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Kampf, and maybe Mangiapane
PK Defensemen
Brodie, Hanifin, Muzzin, Holl, and Zadorov.
Now for next year, we would have Mikheyev, Zadorov, Spezza, and Campbell as our UFA's. Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Sandin, Liljegren, and Kase as our RFA's. I would estimate we would have 17.7 mill in cap space.
Let's say we give Tkachuk an 11% contract, which is right in line where he should be based on previous comparables. Since we are not accounting for cap increases here, that would mean he gets 9 mill on an 8 year deal. For guys who signed as 24/25 year old forwards after bridges, that would put him only behind Giroux, Kessel, and Voracek in terms of cap percentage, and ahead of O'Reilly, Tarasenko, Johansen, and Kuznetsov in terms of similar percentage.
For Mangipane, I think you can just use Conor Garland. Same age (although Garland signed at 25 instead of 26 like Mangipane would), Garland had 47 goals and 96 points in 164 games at the time; Mangiapane, at the same age, had 44 goals and 77 points in 178 games. Both smaller guys with somewhat similar playing styles too I would say. Garland received just north of 6% (4.95 AAV) over 5 years. Let's just say Mangiapane gets 4.9x5 (6% exactly).
Campbell likely comes in at 4 mill on the dot over 3 or 4 years. He'll be 30, and short of him being an absolute stud, guys at that age with limited starting experience don't get more than 5%.
I gave Sandin 1.5 mill x 2 and Liljegren 900k x 1. That leaves us exactly 100k mill to re-sign/replace Kase or Mikheyev, with zero depth guys... which is obviously impossible without cutting some cap. We are left some choices in that regard, but I think the simplest at this point would be to trade Ritchie and Kase.
Tkachuk - Matthews - Mangiapane
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Kerfoot - Kampf - UFA (shutdown bottom 6)
Simmonds - Spezza - Anderson (offensive bottom 6)
Hanifin - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren
Sandin - Holl
Campbell - Mrazek
The Leafs would have 1.95 mill to find that UFA and perhaps add a permanent depth guy, with this being the potential Marlies roster next year:
LW Rodion Amirov – C Michael Amadio (RFA) – RW Josh Ho-Sang (AHL UFA)
LW Nick Robertson – C Semyon Der-Arguchintsev – RW Pavel Gogolev
LW Pontus Holmberg – C Mikhail Abramov – RW Alex Steeves
LW Ryan Chyzowski - C Curtis Douglas – RW ???
LW ??? – C ??? – RW ???
LD Filip Kral - RD Brennan Menell (RFA)
LD Kristians Rubins (RFA) - RD Topi Niemela (unsigned)
LD Mikko Kokkonen (unsigned) - RD Axel Rindell (unsigned)
LD ??? - RD William Villeneuve
RD Joseph Duszak (RFA)/RD Brennan Kapcheck/RD Mac Hollowell (RFA)
Kallgren - Woll (RFA)
Scott (RFA)/Petruzzelli
Conclusion
This is probably a crazy proposal with a very long shot of happening, but if we do go down the blockbuster route, I do think Calgary makes a ton of sense.
