Value of: If things go crazy, make your best offer for Dylan Larkin.

[One Winged Angel]

Unrealistic asking prices for a guy that has a year and change left on his deal.

Term matters.

 

[burstnbloom]

Problem is the two things we need are pretty much the same as the Bruins. We need either a still young but established top 4D or a blue chip C prospect.

We’ve had so many picks the last couple years that adding more B level prospects or late firsts wouldn’t really help us

Carlo, Debrusk, lysell, your pic of Harrison/Beecher/Studnicka plus a first. A great match it is not, but it is a haul.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You'll probably run into that with most teams. If a team has a stud NHL-ready C prospect, then they don't need Larkin. If they are swapping that prospect for Larkin because of an anticipated Cup run, there's the whole issue of Larkin not really having any playoff experience. I'm still not entirely sure why Larkin would be available considering his age.

I don't really see much of Detroit except for when they play the Rangers, but I did have one question. Larkin's career stat line reads like a roller coaster, where you seemingly don't know what you're going to get from one season to the next. His rookie season was great. Sophomore season saw a 13 point drop and an ugly +/-. Seasons 3 and 4 he bounced back and looked to be settling in as a legit 1c (esp season 4). But then seasons 5 and 6 were ugly with 20 and 30 point drops. Now this season, he's a ppg+. His shooting % is all over the place from year to year as well with his lowest (6.7%) and highest (16.1%) coming in the last two seasons.

What's his deal? Is he more of a passenger type who needs talent to put up production? Has he played through injuries in certain years? Is he just wildly inconsistent? Like I said, I rarely see the player, so I'm not judging or making any assertions on his value or anything. I've just never seen such regular fluctuation in a player's stat line.

He’s not really a passenger, but Detroit was just SO devoid of talent that pretty much no player could do anything offensively. Think of Mackinnon when he played on that almost historically bad Avs team and only scored 50pts, but followed it up with 93 when he got any semblance of support.

Last season for example had Bertuzzi only play 9 games, Mantha traded and slumping hard before hand as well. Blashill also implemented an incredibly boring defensive style to try and win games that way but led to all offense drying up. This season he removed that system (just look at this difference in goalie stats), Bert has played most of the year and Raymond came in and gave a true playmaker for him to play with

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Yzerman would get on his knees and beg Drury if Lafreniere AND Schneider were on the table for Larkin

As much fun as the, “Yes he would! No he wouldn’t!” Argument y’all were having is, I’m gonna put this one to rest…

Lafreniere has a career PPG of .35 and would be going to a team that already has winger depth of Raymond/Bertuzzi/Vrana/Fabbri/Zadina/Rasmussen/Berggren/Soderblom. Not only does he not fit a need, but he hasn’t lived up to first overall status at all, yet. That’s not to say he can’t, but the fact that he hasn’t in two years greatly diminishes his value.

Schneider is a fine RHD prospect, and is absolutely not a need for a team that has Seider and Hronek under control for several more years.

So no, your package of Lafreniere + Schneider doesn’t get you anywhere near our #1C.

 

[bert]

Debatably a top 10 least likely player in the league to get traded. From Detroit, amazing player, captain 25 years old lol.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Debatably a top 10 least likely player in the league to get traded. From Detroit, amazing player, captain 25 years old lol.

Is he, though?

McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Makar, Crosby, Ovechkin, Kucherov, Hedman, Barkov, Fox. I stopped at 10 and you could probably add 5-10 more.

I don’t think it’s likely that Detroit trades Larkin at all, but if you really wanted to argue it, you could suggest they trade a guy going on 26 to build around Raymond/Seider/Edvinsson all under 21. You can’t make any argument for any of those guys above being traded, beyond them asking for it.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Monohan + 2023 1st + Valimaki + Corronato/Pelletier/Wolf + Francis/Kerins

Wolf is untouchable. Replace him with Zary in that list. I would also add Poirier and Kuznetsov to the Francis/Kerins group

 

[nbwingsfan]

Wolf is untouchable. Replace him with Zary in that list. I would also add Poirier and Kuznetsov to the Francis/Kerins group

I don’t think any goalie prospect is untouchable. WAY too unpredictable

 

[SirloinUB]

The premise of this thread is a Red Wings fan fishing for an overpayment. We can go back and forth on what fair value is but Detroit wouldn't be looking for fair value in a Larkin trade. Simply put, if your offer doesn't hurt, its not enough.

 

[One Winged Angel]

As much fun as the, “Yes he would! No he wouldn’t!” Argument y’all were having is, I’m gonna put this one to rest…

Lafreniere has a career PPG of .35 and would be going to a team that already has winger depth of Raymond/Bertuzzi/Vrana/Fabbri/Zadina/Rasmussen/Berggren/Soderblom. Not only does he not fit a need, but he hasn’t lived up to first overall status at all, yet. That’s not to say he can’t, but the fact that he hasn’t in two years greatly diminishes his value.

Schneider is a fine RHD prospect, and is absolutely not a need for a team that has Seider and Hronek under control for several more years.

So no, your package of Lafreniere + Schneider doesn’t get you anywhere near our #1C.

Don’t worry, the Rangers wouldn’t offer that for Larkin.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Halak + Motte + 2nd.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Don’t worry, the Rangers wouldn’t offer that for Larkin.

They probably wouldn’t, and Detroit definitely wouldn’t take it.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Halak + Motte + 2nd.

Tyler Motte is not Michael Ryder. Go to your corner.

 

[MarkMessyay11]

No team in the NHL is going to trade what it would take to get Larkin from Detroit. There is no winning that trade from either side. For a healthy (and assumedly extended) Larkin, you're looking at a trade that would be extremely damaging to either a team's roster or future. As an example, NYR would have to give Lafreniere+1st+another good piece. They aren't going to make that trade.

If Larkin is heading to UFA and lets Yzerman know he won't sign here, Yzerman will probably trade him with retention for a first+high level prospect+decent mid-roster player...but I don't see Larkin leaving.

Probably doesn’t get it done for Detroit, but as a Rangers fan I’d at least float an offer of Othmann, Chytil, Lundkvist, and Detroit’s choice of Jones/Robertson/2022 1st. If Larkin re-signs, I’d add a 2023 1st as well.

I know, I know. Most are going to reply with the whole not getting done without Kakko, Laf, Schneider+…but that’s a solid balanced package of young talent to fill out Detroit’s defense and a kid killing in D+1. Plus potentially another 1st.

Larkin being a pending UFA after next season will make teams a little weary about giving more…just my 2 cents. And Detroit is well within their rights to turn that down to see if Larkin will stay. Stevie Y knows what he’s doing.

 

[dj Mahoney]

Dylan's health should be real concerning if GM's do their homework.

 

[SuperScript29]

Trading a 25 years old top line center that also happens to be your captain is a dumb move unless you're getting a massive overpayment in return.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Scheifele <-> Larkin

good ol hockey trade.

Good hockey trades usually don’t involve trading your only high end center for one that is older, less productive, and can’t play in his own end.

 

[MBH]

Dylan's health should be real concerning if GM's do their homework.

Based on?

 

[nbwingsfan]

Dylan's health should be real concerning if GM's do their homework.

Why? He’s missed like 15 games his career

 

[nbwingsfan]

Scheifele <-> Larkin

good ol hockey trade.

A hockey trade where one team gets the younger, better player?

 

[Finner]

CBJ 1st 2022 +CBJ 2nd 2022+ Texier + Bean + Bemström

 

[MBH]

On the face of it, trading Larkin is crazy.
Detroit lacks proven centers. After Larkin, Detroit lacks a capable 2C and a capable 3C. Detroit has known about this deficit at center for years and struggled to rectify the problem, and now you're going to worsen the problem?
With exactly who in the pipeline? Veleno? Rasmussen? They haven't moved the needle at all yet.
Who else? Virtually nobody with 1-2C potential.

On the UFA market, Hertel just signed. Trocheck is probably the best name still on the market. He'd be a pretty nice upgrade for the Wings as 2C. But as a 1C??? No way.

So trading Larkin sure seems like suicide.

On the other hand....
Yzerman has been the GM for 3 years. Here are Larkin's numbers over those years:
71 games 19-34-53 -21
44 games 9-14-23 -14
56 games 27-31-58 -3

Is Stevie thinking sell high?
Larkin will be 27 when his next contract starts after next season. A lucrative, eight-year deal means he's going to have declining value throughout his career.

What's Larkin worth? 8x8.5?

Personally, I still do that contract, knowing Larkin has probably peaked and it's all downhill, most likely.


I really don't think any team offers me enough to consider moving Larkin.
Detroit doesn't have a choice.
Their fans will revolt if they trade their homegrown captain in a trade that extends the rebuild by 3-5 years.

 

[MBH]

I found a deal.
To Detroit.
Byram, Newhook, Annunen
To Colorado:
Larkin.
Who says no?

 

[PAZ]

I found a deal.
To Detroit.
Byram, Newhook, Annunen
To Colorado:
Larkin.
Who says no?

Donno about Detroit, but zero chance Colorado considers that.

 

[TooMuchMan]

I doubt this gets it done. But if I'm Boston, I offer Lysell, Studnicka (or any other prospect Det. prefers) and 2 1sts (2022, 24) for Larkin with an additional 1st in '24 if he re-signs or the Bruins win the cup in either 22 or 23 (a third in 24 if none of the conditions are met). A ton? Yes. But if Hagel got what he just got, I'd be wary of offering anything less than the moon.

If the B's aren't going to go big and grab someone with top-six or top-pairing upside, I'd rather they just go for depth moves because the prices otherwise are just bananas. Maybe my offer is bananas, I'm not 100% certain... but I know Bergeron-Larkin down the middle would be just insane.