Toggle sidebar

Speculation: IF the entire season is locked out, where do the Leafs draft?

  • Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
But...

If the NHLPA decertifies, and stays that way and no CBA is signed.

Burke et al, would just head down to Cole Harbour, Portland, Helsinki,
and throw money and a contract on the table for Nate, Seth or Alexander to sign. It is also not just one, he could pitch for all 3 or more.

Us and 29 others of course.
 
Leaffan16 said:
IMO, this is how the draft should work.
1-6 is one set of picks. The team's that have 3 balls, are put into a draw and picked in order. Thus, you don't have the contenders getting the best talent. Next, 7-12 is the next set of picks. The teams with 2 balls are put by theirselves into a draw. Those picks are given to the bubble teams that need some good talent to actually contend, but don't need the top end talent. The rest of the picks, given to the ones with 1 ball, are put into a draw and drawn.
With this, the Leafs would have a 16.666666667% chance of getting 1st overall.
Although, with Bettman's way and if full out UFA happens, expect it not to be a snake draft and for the Leafs to pick 30.
Click to expand...

this....is an awesome idea.
 
leugangen said:
this....is an awesome idea.
Click to expand...

Yup, I don't see a problem with how it would be drawn out, and there isn't any notable complaints available to say. The ones with 3 balls would be Calgary, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, Toronto, Winnipeg and these probably aren't going to get into the playoffs, let alone actually contend. Then the ones with 2 are Anaheim, Colorado, Florida, NY Islanders, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and while some will make playoffs, they all have deficiencies,
Anaheim: Forward depth.
Colorado: Winger depth.
Florida: High end skill.
NYI: Defense/Goaltending.
St. Louis: Defense after Piet.
Tampa: D-Depth and LW depth.
 
Pyrophorus said:
But...

If the NHLPA decertifies, and stays that way and no CBA is signed.

Burke et al, would just head down to Cole Harbour, Portland, Helsinki,
and throw money and a contract on the table for Nate, Seth or Alexander to sign. It is also not just one, he could pitch for all 3 or more.

Us and 29 others of course.
Click to expand...

Monahan, Seth, Mackinnon and Barkov :P
 
Cor99 said:
Monahan, Seth, Mackinnon and Barkov :P
Click to expand...

And Lindholm, Drouin, Nichuskin, Zadorov, Ristolainen, etc. We could sign a future dynasty with prospects, let alone proven hometown talent. But Monahan didn't go to Helsinki I don't thinnk.
 
The Columbus Blue Jackets actually have a very small chance at getting the #1, #2 and #3 overall draft picks if the 2005 lottery draft rules are used.

I can't remember exactly, but I know I did the math on this way back when...

I think that the LA Kings' 1st and the NY Rangers' 1st each have 1 ball and the Blu Jackets' 1st has 3 balls.

1/50 is 2% and 3/50 is 6%.

With the 1st overall, the Blue Jackets would have a 10% chance to win. If by some miracle the Kings' pick was selected 1st, then the Rangers' pick went 2nd, the Jackets would still have a 6% chance of getting the 3rd overall.

Of course, for them to get all 3 in that order would be a 0.0024% chance. That's a 3/1250 chance.

It's not impossible, but highly unlikely.
 
Last edited:
http://timgur.com/nhl/draft/index#

Lockout lottery simulator.

Leafs pick...

1st try....8th
2nd try ...2nd
3rd try...18th
4th try....11th
5th try...4th
6th try....17th
7th try....4th
8th try....13th
9th try...12th
10th try...12th

Took 46 tries to get 1st pick.:(

Calgary, Carolina, Dallas seem to be showing up a lot in 1st pick.
 
crump said:
http://timgur.com/nhl/draft/index#

Lockout lottery simulator.

Leafs pick...

1st try....8th
2nd try ...2nd
3rd try...18th
4th try....11th
5th try...4th
6th try....17th
7th try....4th
8th try....13th
9th try...12th
10th try...12th

Took 46 tries to get 1st pick.:(

Calgary, Carolina, Dallas seem to be showing up a lot in 1st pick.
Click to expand...

Just did it 10 times.

In the top 10... 7 times
in the top 5... 5 times
1st overall... once

I like!
 
crump said:
http://timgur.com/nhl/draft/index#

Lockout lottery simulator.

Leafs pick...

1st try....8th
2nd try ...2nd
3rd try...18th
4th try....11th
5th try...4th
6th try....17th
7th try....4th
8th try....13th
9th try...12th
10th try...12th

Took 46 tries to get 1st pick.:(

Calgary, Carolina, Dallas seem to be showing up a lot in 1st pick.
Click to expand...

1st try I got Leafs haha. Love the Bettman draft option.
Edit:
1. 1st
2. 27th
3. 18th
4. 17th
5. 3rd
6. 4th
7. 8th
8. 14th
9. 9th
10. 12h
 
The odds that the Leafs get the 5th OA or better draft pick are not a set number.

Whenever a team with multiple balls is selected, they lose whatever remaining balls they had (since they only have the one pick). So if a team with only one ball (or two) selects ahead of the Leafs, that doesn't increase the chances of the Leafs drafting next as much as a team with 3 balls drafting ahead of them would.

So assuming that all the teams that are selected before the Leafs are teams with the same 6% chance of winning, the odds for the Leafs to pick in the top 5 are:

6% (3/50) + 6.38297% (3/47) + 6.81818% (3/44) + 7.31707% (3/41) + 7.89473% (3/38) = 34.41295%

So slightly better than a 1/3 chance of getting any one of the first 5 picks. Assuming optimal odds in our favour.

Conversely, if teams with only 1 ball get selected ahead of the Leafs, leaving the other teams with 3 balls in the mix, the odds would calculate as follows.

6% (3/50) + 6.12244% (3/49) + 6.25% (3/48) + 6.38297% (3/47) + 6.52173% (3/48) = 31.27714%

That's slightly worse than the 1/3 odds. So the Leafs have somewhere between a 34% and 31% chance of drafting between the 1st and 5th overall picks should the NHL adopt the same rules as in 2005.
 
For historical purposes, the NHL did a televised "test" draft on TSN when they were showcasing the Lottery Draft method they would be using in 2005.

The Leafs wound up getting picked 1st. Had that been the actual draft, the Leafs would have been able to select Sidney Crosby.
 
Actually I never liked the 2005 system. I felt that the teams that had had poor seasons in previous years had already been compensated for those poor seasons with high draft picks, so why should they be compensated again? I think it should have been one team, one ball.

But if this season is cancelled, I'd try something different. Since one of the points of this lockout is to get a deal that helps low revenue teams, I think that teams should draft in reverse order of generated over the past five years. That is, the team with the lowest revenue generated gets first pick and so on.
 
rojac said:
Actually I never liked the 2005 system. I felt that the teams that had had poor seasons in previous years had already been compensated for those poor seasons with high draft picks, so why should they be compensated again? I think it should have been one team, one ball.

But if this season is cancelled, I'd try something different. Since one of the points of this lockout is to get a deal that helps low revenue teams, I think that teams should draft in reverse order of generated over the past five years. That is, the team with the lowest revenue generated gets first pick and so on.
Click to expand...

**** no, why would you want that?

That's the worst case scenario for the Leafs.

Plus low revenue teams that are already being kept afloat by rich teams like the Leafs, despite having ****** ownership and ****** fans don't deserve a better chance at the top pick.
 
indigobuffalo said:
For historical purposes, the NHL did a televised "test" draft on TSN when they were showcasing the Lottery Draft method they would be using in 2005.

The Leafs wound up getting picked 1st. Had that been the actual draft, the Leafs would have been able to select Sidney Crosby.
Click to expand...

instead we got #21 and JFJ makes a "Hero" pick and selects Tukka Rask!

Followed by JFJ eventually trading Rask for Raycroft :thumbd:

My two cents on the draft if there isn't a season. I feel that a lottery doesn't make any sense because it gives teams that have elite skill to get better before teams that that need elite skill.

If i was a Jacket fan and one of Hawks, Wings, Blues or Preds selected before our franchise it could be seriously detrimental to the franchise. The NHL needs to find a way to make it fair for everyone. Teams that have struggled over the past 5 seasons should have the best chance.

This is what i propose:

5 pools, 6 teams in each pool and have a random lottery between each pool.

Criteria for Pool A:
1.Has not made the playoffs in the past 5 seasons
2. Has not selected 1st overall in the past 5 seasons
3. The least amount of points over the past 5 seasons

Criteria for Pool B:
1.Has not made the playoffs in the past 5 seasons
2.The least amount of playoff appearances
3. The least amount of points over the past 5 seasons

Criteria for Pool C:
1.The least amount of playoff appearances
2. The least amount of points over the past 5 seasons

Criteria for Pool D:
1.The least amount of playoff appearances
2. The least amount of points over the past 5 seasons

Criteria for Pool C:
1. Won the Stanley Cup in the past 6 years

Pool A: Jackets, Leafs, Jets, Wild, Flames, Panthers
Pool B: Oilers, Islanders, Habs, Lightning, Stars, Sabres
Pool C: Carolina, Sens, Devils, Avs, Blues, Yotes
Pool D: Sharks, Canucks, Rangers, Preds, Flyers, Caps
Pool E: Kings, Bruins, Hawks, Wings, Pens, Ducks
 
Rockinz said:
instead we got #21 and JFJ makes a "Hero" pick and selects Tukka Rask!

Followed by JFJ eventually trading Rask for Raycroft :thumbd:

My two cents on the draft if there isn't a season. I feel that a lottery doesn't make any sense because it gives teams that have elite skill to get better before teams that that need elite skill.

If i was a Jacket fan and one of Hawks, Wings, Blues or Preds selected before our franchise it could be seriously detrimental to the franchise. The NHL needs to find a way to make it fair for everyone. Teams that have struggled over the past 5 seasons should have the best chance.

This is what i propose:

5 pools, 6 teams in each pool and have a random lottery between each pool.

Criteria for Pool A:
1.Has not made the playoffs in the past 5 seasons
2. Has not selected 1st overall in the past 5 seasons
3. The least amount of points over the past 5 seasons

Criteria for Pool B:
1.Has not made the playoffs in the past 5 seasons
2.The least amount of playoff appearances
3. The least amount of points over the past 5 seasons

Criteria for Pool C:
1.The least amount of playoff appearances
2. The least amount of points over the past 5 seasons

Criteria for Pool D:
1.The least amount of playoff appearances
2. The least amount of points over the past 5 seasons

Criteria for Pool C:
1. Won the Stanley Cup in the past 6 years

Pool A: Jackets, Leafs, Jets, Wild, Flames, Panthers
Pool B: Oilers, Islanders, Habs, Lightning, Stars, Sabres
Pool C: Carolina, Sens, Devils, Avs, Blues, Yotes
Pool D: Sharks, Canucks, Rangers, Preds, Flyers, Caps
Pool E: Kings, Bruins, Hawks, Wings, Pens, Ducks
Click to expand...

I hate leaving it to a lottery, hopefully there is a season, I am confident we could finish 25th again with the current roster.
 
Interactif said:
I hate leaving it to a lottery, hopefully there is a season, I am confident we could finish 25th again with the current roster.
Click to expand...

The Leafs have better statistical odds of getting a high draft pick with a lottery system than with a shortened season.

Although of course, I too would like a season over no season.
 
indigobuffalo said:
The Leafs have better statistical odds of getting a high draft pick with a lottery system than with a shortened season.

Although of course, I too would like a season over no season.
Click to expand...

lol no, we had 8% chance of 1st overall last draft, and with the old draft, we have 6%. Pretty sure 8>6.
 
crump said:
http://timgur.com/nhl/draft/index#

Lockout lottery simulator.

Leafs pick...

1st try....8th
2nd try ...2nd
3rd try...18th
4th try....11th
5th try...4th
6th try....17th
7th try....4th
8th try....13th
9th try...12th
10th try...12th

Took 46 tries to get 1st pick.:(

Calgary, Carolina, Dallas seem to be showing up a lot in 1st pick.
Click to expand...

1st try: 4th
2nd try: 2nd
3rd try: 5th
4th try: 1st
5th try: 23rd

I was pretty happy until my fifth roll. That site proves how lucky we'll have to be get a top 5 pick.
 
joepeps said:
Thats not how it works... Those picks would get moved to the following years... Every teams needs to have a first in the lottery. Just like last time... We didn't have a first I think but we still got a pick, or it might have been another team
Click to expand...

Wrong.

Colorado had no 1st-round pick in 2005.
 
indigobuffalo said:
The odds that the Leafs get the 5th OA or better draft pick are not a set number.

Whenever a team with multiple balls is selected, they lose whatever remaining balls they had (since they only have the one pick). So if a team with only one ball (or two) selects ahead of the Leafs, that doesn't increase the chances of the Leafs drafting next as much as a team with 3 balls drafting ahead of them would.

So assuming that all the teams that are selected before the Leafs are teams with the same 6% chance of winning, the odds for the Leafs to pick in the top 5 are:

6% (3/50) + 6.38297% (3/47) + 6.81818% (3/44) + 7.31707% (3/41) + 7.89473% (3/38) = 34.41295%

So slightly better than a 1/3 chance of getting any one of the first 5 picks. Assuming optimal odds in our favour.

Conversely, if teams with only 1 ball get selected ahead of the Leafs, leaving the other teams with 3 balls in the mix, the odds would calculate as follows.

6% (3/50) + 6.12244% (3/49) + 6.25% (3/48) + 6.38297% (3/47) + 6.52173% (3/48) = 31.27714%

That's slightly worse than the 1/3 odds. So the Leafs have somewhere between a 34% and 31% chance of drafting between the 1st and 5th overall picks should the NHL adopt the same rules as in 2005.
Click to expand...

Almost right.

You forgot to multiply the odds for each round by the odds of the Leafs NOT being picked in a previous round.

But the last time I used stats scholastically was 40+ years ago, so I might be wrong... :cry:
 
beauchamp said:
Wrong.

Colorado had no 1st-round pick in 2005.
Click to expand...
At the 2005 Draft Lottery Colorado was originally awarded the 27th overall pick, which they eventually traded to Washington.

I even remember James Duthie saying during the Draft Lottery that year how all 30 teams had their 2005 1st round picks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom