If McDavid scores 150+ points this season...

[VMBM]

OK, at least as a point-getter, Connor McDavid is in a league of his own at the moment. If he hits 150 points (or more) this regular season, how highly would you rate his performance historically?

I'd think he has nothing on Gretzky's, Lemieux's (and maybe Orr's?) absolute peak performances yet, but after that, who else is there?

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[bobholly39]

Just to temper expectations - it's extremely unlikely he hits it. He was off to as good a start last year, and finished with ~123. Players other than McDavid have had better stretches than him right now through ~25 games, without hitting anywhere close to 150 points in a full season. So - 150 points is possible for him I think because of how good he is, but still extremely unlikely.

Having said that - if he does hit 150 points, I'd agree that for peak he's still definitely behind Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr - but I think he starts to have an argument for #4 with Howe, possibly above. It would be truly remarkable.

 

[norrisnick]

Just to temper expectations - it's extremely unlikely he hits it. He was off to as good a start last year, and finished with ~123. Players other than McDavid have had better stretches than him right now through ~25 games, without hitting anywhere close to 150 points in a full season. So - 150 points is possible for him I think because of how good he is, but still extremely unlikely.

Having said that - if he does hit 150 points, I'd agree that for peak he's still definitely behind Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr - but I think he starts to have an argument for #4 with Howe, possibly above. It would be truly remarkable.

You've picked the wrong guy for #4 that he'd start to have arguments with.

 

[jigglysquishy]

He's currently leading the league in both goals and assists. Only Howe, Esposito, Gretzky, and Lemieux ever did it.

There's lots of ifs

If he keeps pace and leads in both, it's hard to argue against it being the best season outside the Big Four and Espo.

His VsX as of this morning is 131.7. That will fluctuate a lot and relies on Draisailt/3rd place being under 0.9. It would be the 19th highest VsX score ever. The only players to ever post a VsX score higher outside the Big Four and Espo are Morenz 1928 and McDavid 2021.

It would bring McDavid's VsX7 to 115.6. Would be 5th all time behind Gretzky, Howe, Esposito, Lemieux. Ahead of Orr and Jagr.

That's as of today. He's not hitting 155 points this year, but he could hit 140 points. He's strongly ahead of his pace last year.

As to all time ranking, I have him at 15 for centres. The guys ahead of him all have very long careers with multiple Cups. But if he does a 65 goal 85 assist season, he might just vault in front of everyone except Gretzky-Lemieux-Beliveau-Crosby.

 

[DitchMarner]

Just to temper expectations - it's extremely unlikely he hits it. He was off to as good a start last year, and finished with ~123. Players other than McDavid have had better stretches than him right now through ~25 games, without hitting anywhere close to 150 points in a full season. So - 150 points is possible for him I think because of how good he is, but still extremely unlikely.

Having said that - if he does hit 150 points, I'd agree that for peak he's still definitely behind Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr - but I think he starts to have an argument for #4 with Howe, possibly above. It would be truly remarkable.

His pace this year is substantially better than his pace last year, though.

The following is a jigglysquishy post from another thread:


"McDavid 2021-22 vs 2022-23 after 28 games.

22: 16 G 31 A 47 P
23: 25 G 29 A 54 P

Strongly above pace of last year. Way ahead of his goal pace last year."


After 28 games last season he was on pace for 138 points. After 28 games this season, he's on pace for 158 points.

 

[Rengorlex]

If he could follow that with a playoff run of similar calibre as last year that would be huge and would clearly elevate him above any other player since Lemieux/Gretzky in peak domination.

 

[MadLuke]

Considering the playoff of last years.

McDavid last 82 games

38: 21-42-63pts to finish 2021
16: 10-23-33 pts in the playoff
28: 25-29-54 pts in the start of 2022

That 56 goals, 94 assists, 150 points in 82 games, some of those being western conference playoffs games.

In a world were the 7 best Canadian scorer in the league would do what around a 100 points pace and will be named Crosby, that look 1999 Jagr level of domination sustained against a bit better peers I feel than the late 90s-early 2000s.

 

[TANK200]

By the time this guy is done, we'll have a big 5.

 

[JackSlater]

This is more hypothetical future of hockey than history of hockey, but I think that McDavid probably ends up a 9.5 player to the big four being 10s. Possibly the clear cut #5 assuming some kind of normal career arc and not Howe-like longevity and consistency. I do think that a Howe peak is in play, but the level that Orr/Gretzky/Lemieux showed they were capable of looks beyond him.

 

[Video Nasty]

Just to temper expectations - it's extremely unlikely he hits it. He was off to as good a start last year, and finished with ~123. Players other than McDavid have had better stretches than him right now through ~25 games, without hitting anywhere close to 150 points in a full season. So - 150 points is possible for him I think because of how good he is, but still extremely unlikely.

Having said that - if he does hit 150 points, I'd agree that for peak he's still definitely behind Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr - but I think he starts to have an argument for #4 with Howe, possibly above. It would be truly remarkable.

It’s less unlikely by the day.

From January 1, 2018 (the start of the second half of the 2017-2018) through today, McDavid has 204 goals and 353 assists for 557 points in his last 347 games (played all but 13 games).

That’s a PPG of 1.605 over for nearly 5 years real time and the equivalent of four and a quarter 82 game seasons, done consecutively.

If he matches his PPG over the last 5 years and plays the remaining 54 games, he’s hitting 140 points. He needs 96 to hit 150 (1.777 PPG). Again, lower than the 1.929 that he has put up so far.

As long as he plays all 82 games, be prepared for 150.

Hopefully most of us can enjoy this.

 

[bobbyking]

I'm sure multiple players will have more then 110 points this year. defense hasn't been this garbage since the 80s but I love it and hope it stays this way

 

[Hockey Outsider]

McDavid "should" have ended up with around 140-145 points last year (here's a post where I go into some of the details). The Oilers shot at a very low rate when he was on the ice, and that cost him around 20 points.

McDavid shouldn't get credit for what might have happened, but it's not like a 150 points season would be completely unexpected either, since he was already playing close to that level last year - just that he was hampered by linemates who couldn't cash in on the chances he helped generate.

 

[Big Phil]

I had some arguments with a friend last year about this, well, not arguments, because I love McDavid, but what I was trying to tell him was that it was very unlikely he hits 150. Oh no he said, look at the start he is off to (this was last year) what will you say when he hits 150? He won't, I said. That is extremely difficult to do. For starters only two player in NHL history have done it more than once, Gretzky and Lemieux. The rest it was just once. Esposito, Yzerman and Nicholls, and they only did it once and perhaps there were some factors to that, outside of maybe Yzerman who really was a lone wolf in Detroit.

So I'll say this year he doesn't do it either. He'll hit a cold patch just like he did last year. To have two points a game over a full season is just unheard of and I can't see him maintaining it.

 

[jigglysquishy]

This is more hypothetical future of hockey than history of hockey, but I think that McDavid probably ends up a 9.5 player to the big four being 10s. Possibly the clear cut #5 assuming some kind of normal career arc and not Howe-like longevity and consistency. I do think that a Howe peak is in play, but the level that Orr/Gretzky/Lemieux showed they were capable of looks beyond him.

This is increasingly how I see it. The gap between the Big Four and five is strong enough that all but two posters in the last list adhered to it. And only one poster in the 2013 list. There's about a dozen candidates that could be argued at five, which says to me there's room for someone to come in and be better than the field but worse that the Big Four.

McDavid is on his way to his fifth Art Ross, third Hart, and fourth Pearson. He's putting up a resume that is comfortably making him the choice at 5.

He has not been playing at a peak level of a Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr. He is peaking at a level comparable to Howe. It's near impossible for him to keep up to the overall resume of Howe. Howe had 10 seasons of being top 2 in Hart voting amongst forwards. McDavid is about to do 4.

But being the consensus choice at 5 is realistic.

Right now, I see the following being popular choices for 5 (listed chronologically)

Richard
Harvey
Beliveau
Hull
Hasek
Roy
Crosby

That's going to be 95% of the picks for 5. You'll get a few Ovechkin or Jagr or Bourque too.

Looking at forwards only, can McDavid build a resume clearly above Richard/Beliveau/Hull/Crosby? I think he's in the process of doing so.

Being realistic, it'll take a Smythe and Cup to make it consensus.

 

[JackSlater]

McDavid "should" have ended up with around 140-145 points last year (here's a post where I go into some of the details). The Oilers shot at a very low rate when he was on the ice, and that cost him around 20 points.

McDavid shouldn't get credit for what might have happened, but it's not like a 150 points season would be completely unexpected either, since he was already playing close to that level last year - just that he was hampered by linemates who couldn't cash in on the chances he helped generate.

I recall reading about that in a few places, and it matched the experience of watching McDavid sometimes last year where other players were near him in scoring but none looked like they generated chances close to as well as he did. We'll see what he does this year but I am curious to see how much it looks like his abbreviated 2021 season.

This is increasingly how I see it. The gap between the Big Four and five is strong enough that all but two posters in the last list adhered to it. And only one poster in the 2013 list. There's about a dozen candidates that could be argued at five, which says to me there's room for someone to come in and be better than the field but worse that the Big Four.

McDavid is on his way to his fifth Art Ross, third Hart, and fourth Pearson. He's putting up a resume that is comfortably making him the choice at 5.

He has not been playing at a peak level of a Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr. He is peaking at a level comparable to Howe. It's near impossible for him to keep up to the overall resume of Howe. Howe had 10 seasons of being top 2 in Hart voting amongst forwards. McDavid is about to do 4.

But being the consensus choice at 5 is realistic.

Right now, I see the following being popular choices for 5 (listed chronologically)

Richard
Harvey
Beliveau
Hull
Hasek
Roy
Crosby

That's going to be 95% of the picks for 5. You'll get a few Ovechkin or Jagr or Bourque too.

Looking at forwards only, can McDavid build a resume clearly above Richard/Beliveau/Hull/Crosby? I think he's in the process of doing so.

Being realistic, it'll take a Smythe and Cup to make it consensus.

There are a lot of ifs, as noted. The fifth spot is open with plenty of options. Crosby gets a lot of push there but his lost peak means that he'll never have a firm grip on that spot. Ovechkin will get a lot of push for that spot when he gets the goal record, but that's a pretty mindless case that won't stand up beyond the most basic level of scrutiny. The players who preceded them all have strengths and weaknesses. McDavid will likely end up with the best hardware collection of any forward outside of Howe/Gretzky/Lemieux for those who want that, and for those looking for a visually spectacular or modern player he will check that box off. Once he starts getting serious buzz for that level historically a lack of a Stanley Cup, as noted, will hold him back with most people if he never wins one.

He may cool off drastically and this whole thread will look foolish, but for now he has had an extended run where basically everything needs to go right for an elite player to outscore McDavid, and sometimes also with things going wrong on McDavid's end. He would benefit from a nice Stanley Cup run and he could improve things defensively but he's already one of the best players ever.

 

[edog37]

This is increasingly how I see it. The gap between the Big Four and five is strong enough that all but two posters in the last list adhered to it. And only one poster in the 2013 list. There's about a dozen candidates that could be argued at five, which says to me there's room for someone to come in and be better than the field but worse that the Big Four.

McDavid is on his way to his fifth Art Ross, third Hart, and fourth Pearson. He's putting up a resume that is comfortably making him the choice at 5.

He has not been playing at a peak level of a Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr. He is peaking at a level comparable to Howe. It's near impossible for him to keep up to the overall resume of Howe. Howe had 10 seasons of being top 2 in Hart voting amongst forwards. McDavid is about to do 4.

But being the consensus choice at 5 is realistic.

Right now, I see the following being popular choices for 5 (listed chronologically)

Richard
Harvey
Beliveau
Hull
Hasek
Roy
Crosby

That's going to be 95% of the picks for 5. You'll get a few Ovechkin or Jagr or Bourque too.

Looking at forwards only, can McDavid build a resume clearly above Richard/Beliveau/Hull/Crosby? I think he's in the process of doing so.

Being realistic, it'll take a Smythe and Cup to make it consensus.

It would take multiple Cups. Something he’s not shown any ability to lead his team towards.

 

[jigglysquishy]

It would take multiple Cups. Something he’s not shown any ability to lead his team towards.

Hull only won one Cup, wasn't the best player on his team when they won, and is the most popular choice for 5.

Lemieux and Orr only won twice and are firmly in the Big Four.

Bourque didn't win until his last game. Hasek was 37 and not on the Sabres.

This forum won't hold it against him. Especially if he puts up more playoff runs like 2022.

 

[edog37]

There are a lot of ifs, as noted. The fifth spot is open with plenty of options. Crosby gets a lot of push there but his lost peak means that he'll never have a firm grip on that spot.

Hull only won one Cup, wasn't the best player on his team when they won, and is the most popular choice for 5.

Lemieux and Orr only won twice and are firmly in the Big Four.

Bourque didn't win until his last game. Hasek was 37 and not on the Sabres.

This forum won't hold it against him. Especially if he puts up more playoff runs like 2022.

Getting swept in the conference finals & getting stood up by Makar isn’t impressive. Lemieux won back to back Smythes, & came back from cancer. He wasn’t a third liner, he was front & center. He also led Canada to its first Olympic Gold in 50 years & of course, the ‘87 Canada Cup. Crosby has an even better resume with 3 Cups, 2 Olympic Gold Medals & the golden goal. McDavid has none of these things & there are growing questions about his leadership abilities. Regular season awards don’t mean anything without playoff accomplishment. This is why Crosby is firmly entrenched as 5th GOAT & that McDavid has miles to go to even consider being in the conversation.

 

[The Panther]

Getting swept in the conference finals & getting stood up by Makar isn’t impressive. Lemieux won back to back Smythes, & came back from cancer. He wasn’t a third liner, he was front & center. He also led Canada to its first Olympic Gold in 50 years & of course, the ‘87 Canada Cup. Crosby has an even better resume with 3 Cups, 2 Olympic Gold Medals & the golden goal. McDavid has none of these things & there are growing questions about his leadership abilities. Regular season awards don’t mean anything without playoff accomplishment. This is why Crosby is firmly entrenched as 5th GOAT & that McDavid has miles to go to even consider being in the conversation.

Please return to the main board, where this kind of nonsense belongs.

Anyway, McDavid has been transcendent this season, of course, but I'm not sure he's been better than in 2021. In 2021, he was just consistently fabulous, at a level I hadn't seen since at least Mario in 1995-96 or perhaps Mario in 1993. "Partial-season" yadda-yadda, to which I say this is the best League in the world and almost 60 games is 3/4 of a full season (like Mario in 1993). McDavid's "adjusted" points projected for 2021 was around 158, equivalent to Gretzky in '82, '83, '87, or Lemieux in '88 or '89.

McDavid's 2022 playoffs might be the best through three rounds since Malkin in '09 or Lemieux in '92.

It's still very unlikely he'll hit 150 points because that's nearly impossible. But working in his favor this season are (a) the Oilers aren't trying to get the coach fired, like last year, (b) the Oilers have (seemingly) already had their big slump -- they went 3-7 in games 11 to 20 -- and McDavid kept up the pace through that slump (unlike last season), and (c) the Oilers have had a really rough schedule so far, which is starting to get "easier" (if that's the right word) from now. They also end the schedule this season with 7 of their final 12 games vs. relatively weaker teams. So, if McDavid wants to make a last-few-weeks' push towards a milestone, this is a good season to do it in.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Getting swept in the conference finals & getting stood up by Makar isn’t impressive. Lemieux won back to back Smythes, & came back from cancer. He wasn’t a third liner, he was front & center. He also led Canada to its first Olympic Gold in 50 years & of course, the ‘87 Canada Cup. Crosby has an even better resume with 3 Cups, 2 Olympic Gold Medals & the golden goal. McDavid has none of these things & there are growing questions about his leadership abilities. Regular season awards don’t mean anything without playoff accomplishment. This is why Crosby is firmly entrenched as 5th GOAT & that McDavid has miles to go to even consider being in the conversation.

Crosby is far from being entrenched at 5.

On the 2018 list he was voted in at 12.

#5 votes amongst those that followed the Big Four (30 of 32 voters)

Hull - 7
Harvey - 7
Beliveau- 7
Hasek - 3
Roy - 3
Richard - 2
Crosby - 1

The two who didn't adhere to the Big Four did so to the boost of Richard/Harvey/Beliveau.

Crosby has added to his resume since the end of the 2018 season, but not nearly enough to jump up above the aforementioned legends.

Hull ended up at 5th. In Round 2 of voting, Hull and Beliveau combined for 19 of 30 votes for 5th. Crosby got 0.

Crosby at 5 is a tough sell. Crosby at 7-10 is a very easy sell.

Hull is the most popular vote at 5. It's not like his playoff resume is leaps and bounds above McDavid's.

 

[MadLuke]

One thing if he does that 150 points, he would mean that he would have been playing at 150 points pace for at least 130 games in a row and would kind of "confirm" the 2021 partial season (could have sustained it) at the same time.

It would shift the conversation of the what possible in the modern hockey and all the X would never in 20xx do Y

 

[Rengorlex]

Anyway, McDavid has been transcendent this season, of course, but I'm not sure he's been better than in 2021. In 2021, he was just consistently fabulous, at a level I hadn't seen since at least Mario in 1995-96 or perhaps Mario in 1993. "Partial-season" yadda-yadda, to which I say this is the best League in the world and almost 60 games is 3/4 of a full season (like Mario in 1993). McDavid's "adjusted" points projected for 2021 was around 158, equivalent to Gretzky in '82, '83, '87, or Lemieux in '88 or '89.

The goalscoring has been next level this year, but in shift-to-shift dominance, 2021 is by far McDavid's best regular season. He was playing with a chip on his shoulder all the way until hitting that 100 point plateau.

He played even better than that in the 2022 playoffs though.

 

[authentic]

His pace this year is substantially better than his pace last year, though.

The following is a jigglysquishy post from another thread:


"McDavid 2021-22 vs 2022-23 after 28 games.

22: 16 G 31 A 47 P
23: 25 G 29 A 54 P

Strongly above pace of last year. Way ahead of his goal pace last year."


After 28 games last season he was on pace for 138 points. After 28 games this season, he's on pace for 158 points.

This makes me believe he could get 140, but 150 is not happening IMO. If he does 140 and every non Draisaitl player is below 120 that has to be the best peak season besides the big 4. But If he gets 130 with the way scoring is up how would that be seen as so much better than Kucherov’s 128 in a lower scoring season?

 

[MadLuke]

. If he does 140 and every non Draisaitl player is below 120 that has to be the best peak season besides the big 4.

If we speak only in points scoring, would it be significantly different from:
Points

1.	Jaromír Jágr • PIT	127
2.	Teemu Selänne* • MDA	107
3.	Paul Kariya* • MDA	101
4.	Peter Forsberg* • COL	97
5.	Joe Sakic* • COL	96

or
Points

1.	Connor McDavid • EDM	105
2.	Leon Draisaitl • EDM	84
3.	Brad Marchand • BOS	69
4.	Mitch Marner • TOR	67
5.	Patrick Kane • CHI	66
	Auston Matthews • TOR	66
	Mikko Rantanen • COL	66

Esposito 152pts 1971 would be an other one

 

[authentic]

If we speak only in points scoring, would it be significantly different from:
Points

1.	Jaromír Jágr • PIT	127
2.	Teemu Selänne* • MDA	107
3.	Paul Kariya* • MDA	101
4.	Peter Forsberg* • COL	97
5.	Joe Sakic* • COL	96

or
Points

1.	Connor McDavid • EDM	105
2.	Leon Draisaitl • EDM	84
3.	Brad Marchand • BOS	69
4.	Mitch Marner • TOR	67
5.	Patrick Kane • CHI	66
	Auston Matthews • TOR	66
	Mikko Rantanen • COL	66

Esposito 152pts 1971 would be an other one

If we speak only in points scoring, would it be significantly different from:
Points

1.	Jaromír Jágr • PIT	127
2.	Teemu Selänne* • MDA	107
3.	Paul Kariya* • MDA	101
4.	Peter Forsberg* • COL	97
5.	Joe Sakic* • COL	96

or
Points

1.	Connor McDavid • EDM	105
2.	Leon Draisaitl • EDM	84
3.	Brad Marchand • BOS	69
4.	Mitch Marner • TOR	67
5.	Patrick Kane • CHI	66
	Auston Matthews • TOR	66
	Mikko Rantanen • COL	66

Esposito 152pts 1971 would be an other one

Depends what the rest of the scorers look like, but if he leads in goals and assists that will be a bonus for sure. Esposito also obviously had a major scoring boost from Bobby Orr.