Value of: If McDavid doesn’t extend

[miscs75]

Halak+ Ryder+2nd+ 5 game used Plekanec turtlenecks.

 

[Zirakzigil]

I think you'd look at the eichel trade in reference

Not really. He was injured and demanding a surgery that was first of its kind for a hockey player.

 

[Heldig]

Purely hypothetical...

Some ideas I came up with (only Eastern) :

OTT - COZENS + Yakemchuk + Merilainen + 2027 OTT 1st
TOR - RIELLY + Cowan + Danford + Hildeby
CAR - KOTKANIEMI + Nadeau + 2026 CAR 1st + 2026 DAL 1st
NJD - PALAT + Nemec + Silayev + Yegorov

For McDavid?

Edmonton would get way better offers than that. From every team in the league.

 

[Space umpire]

Wait.. you're asking for retention on CONNOR MCDAVID??? and they take a cap dump in return?

I’ll go slow you.
If (IF) you were in Edmonton”s position and you knew he wasn’t going to sign. And a team offered 2 1st and a good prospect. And another offered 2 1st, 2 2nds and a great prospect but needed retention you would refuse and take the 1st offer?

There's no reason that Edmonton would retain 50% unless they were planning to go into a rebuild, which wouldn't make sense, as they have Draisaitl, Bouchard, Ekholm, Hyman, Hopkins, Kane, Nurse, Kulak, Walman and Henrique signed for next season. They could retain zero (or very very little) and bring in at least 2 very good players to add to that group, and continue contending for the cup. Not unlike Messier and the Oilers winning another cup after Gretzky was traded to the Kings.

I understand the premise of the thread, but it just wouldn't happen.

 

[Space umpire]

I’ll go slow you.
If (IF) you were in Edmonton”s position and you knew he wasn’t going to sign. And a team offered 2 1sts and an good prospect and another offered 3 1st a 2nd and a good prospect but needed retention are you saying you wouldn’t retain?

 

[Space umpire]

I’ll go slow you.
If (IF) you were in Edmonton”s position and you knew he wasn’t going to sign. And a team offered

I never said it would, I asked what the value would be. I reread what I wrote. It’s really not that difficult.

 

[Space umpire]

So is the expectation he will sign July 1st or later this summer? Assuming talks go well.

I hope he signs 7/1 or close to it. Otherwise all of HF will be full of McD to Toronto threads.

 

[Zalos]

Purely hypothetical...

Some ideas I came up with (only Eastern) :

OTT - COZENS + Yakemchuk + Merilainen + 2027 OTT 1st
TOR - RIELLY + Cowan + Danford + Hildeby
CAR - KOTKANIEMI + Nadeau + 2026 CAR 1st + 2026 DAL 1st
NJD - PALAT + Nemec + Silayev + Yegorov

My dude, you realize McDavid is potentially the greatest player of all time along with Lemieux and Gretzky? You think he's going to be traded for these mid players?

THE f***!

To give you better pespective, if McDavid was traded to Toronto the ask would begin with Matthews and go from there. Not freaking Morgan Rielly.

There are teams in the league that wouldn't be able to trade for McDavid.

But this is all moot because McDavid isn't leaving the Oilers when they just went to two Stanley Cup finals in a row and will contend for at least a few more years. I could see it happen after his next contract, when he's 35+. That's it.

 

[jonlin]

From Florida:

- Lundell 5M UFA 2030
- Luostarinen 3M UFA 2027
- Mikkola 2,5M UFA 2026
- Samoskevich RFA 2025

for

Connor McDavid 12.5M UFA 2026 (assuming he is ready to renew his contract in Florida)

Who would do it?

E-Rod - McDavid - Reinhart
Verhaeghe - Barkov - Tkachuk

 

[Zalos]

From Florida:

- Lundell 5M UFA 2030
- Luostarinen 3M UFA 2027
- Mikkola 2,5M UFA 2026
- Samoskevich RFA 2025

for

Connor McDavid 12.5M UFA 2026 (assuming he is ready to renew his contract in Florida)

Who would do it?

E-Rod - McDavid - Reinhart
Verhaeghe - Barkov - Tkachuk

Giving your scraps for a top 3 player all time?

It would be more like Tkachuk +++. You'd most likely have to give two of your top 6 for McDavid. With some draft picks or prospects.

I think people are way underestimating the value of McDavid.

 

[jonlin]

Giving your scraps for a top 3 player all time?

It would be more like Tkachuk +++. You'd most likely have to give two of your top 6 for McDavid. With some draft picks or prospects.

I think people are way underestimating the value of McDavid.

"Scraps" ?

I see you undervalue Lundell, Luostarinen and Samoskevich by a mile. Go check some Florida-games. Thats a whole 2nd line incoming cheap, for a player that aint gonna sign a contract. Lundell has been better than Barkov theese playoffs

 

[Zalos]

"Scraps" ?

I see you undervalue Lundell, Luostarinen and Samoskevich by a mile. Go check some Florida-games. Thats a whole 2nd line incoming cheap, for a player that aint gonna sign a contract. Lundell has been better than Barkov theese playoffs

I've seen Florida games.

I'd take McDavid on my team over Verhaeghe+Barkov+Tkachuk.

He's the best in the world. Those above three are at least one tier below him. Let's not even talk about your "2nd line incoming cheap". And, of course, this is with the insurance that McDavid signs. I don't see him being a rental anywhere. Price would be way too high for a couple months.

 

[jonlin]

I'd take McDavid on my team over Verhaeghe+Barkov+Tkachuk.

Did you notice this thread actually is about McDavid wouldnt be signing in Edmonton? That actually puts down his value a lot. Would Edmonton want him to walk for free or try to add some value to the team? A Lundell @ 5M until 2030 has significant value. When Drai is left on the team, picks and prospects dont add much value, as it will take years for them to contribute and Drai aint getting younger...

Im also quite confident the package you mention would bring a cup to Edmonton and Florida would easily decline, even without NMC:s and NTC:s.

 

[Reality Czech]

I just don't see how this would actually play out...

"Move to a contender" - is Edmonton, the team that has been to 2 straight Stanley Cup Finals, not the best possible contender he can be on?

I also don't see how he's going to pull a Marner and go into the season without contract done. He just doesn't seem to be that personality.

Edmonton without McDavid isn't a serious contender and many teams would instantly become contenders if adding him.

 

[hullsy47]

Those are all really weak packages considering what they're being traded for.

Unless u realize mcdavid WILL be the highest paid player if he desides he wants it

 

[bernmeister]

1. (also, 2, 3, 4, etc.) McD is NOT going anywhere, unless he PERSONALLY decides to leave for some inexplicable reason heretofore not apparent.
OP should not be derided for asking hypothetical given all variables in the equation.

But that said, if the underlying premise is Oil have to do something signif to make McD a happy camper, then I see Drai for a huge haul, not McD

Like I've said with Quinn, it's very seldom a captain, especially ones of good character choose to leave in their prime unless the teams going into a long rebuild.

The only way I see that even remotely happening is if they overpay Bouchard and run back the same team.
I've said it a million times, the oilers roster mostly sucks and without McDrai are a lottery, team.
TBH, they aren't in an envious position in cap space, youth, or prospects.
Not gonna be easy finding a real #1 goalie and some depth scoring.

At the end of the regular season I would have agreed with this and would be reluctant to pay him 8mil. But he has looked phenomenal in these playoffs, and it’s the second playoff run in a row. He will likely be looking for 11. Hoping he takes 10.5.

Connor 8 x 16.5
Bouch 8 x 10.5

Core locked up for 41 mil. It’s steep, but it’s arguably the best 3 player core in the league.

cap bal will not require LeoDrai w/retention

LeoDrai + Bouch + maybe x ________________ + maybe small cap dump
for
Shesterkin, Fox, Trocheck + 2 acceptable prospects

why Oil:
McD happy to have elite G long term
Fox could walk after 3 more seasons, but he is still not elite but a superior D who can manage the backline and is locked in at less than what Bouch will make
Tro = good pivot w/elite FO% wins

why Rs
stud 1C
they package a core of Bouch + Schneider + prospect Cs Laba, Sykora to LA
for a core of Byfield + Helenius. Ks reluctantly do this b'c they can squeeze another season, maybe 2, out of Kopitar, even if he drops from now mid level 1C to elite 3C at reduced time, and need to more urgently address wafer thin D, esp RD, situation -- which is on tinderhooks if Doughty falls off a cliff overnight and Gav walks
this deal allows LA to use By's 6+ cap to lock up Gav + Schneid

NY then retains + extends KAM long term

Zib at half + acceptable pick/prospects
for
Zegras + Helleson

Zeg may be more open to stay w/Kreider in ANA, but he may also want to go east = home
so this is a fit

LaF to MON for Reinbacher

Rs have stud D prospect in Garand

this deal straightens out NYR F situation and ok in G, but D is a mess still to be resolved

but again no McD to anywhere 99% of all scenarios, this is the radical shakeup Oil do if McD demands something
hard to imagine a better package for Drai that fits EDM needs than this^

 

[PelagicJoe]

If he doesn't extend, Edmonton will be right back to suckville where they lived for pretty much 25 years straight (outside of that 06 season) before he got drafted.

 

[Drizzzt]

From Florida:

- Lundell 5M UFA 2030
- Luostarinen 3M UFA 2027
- Mikkola 2,5M UFA 2026
- Samoskevich RFA 2025

for

Connor McDavid 12.5M UFA 2026 (assuming he is ready to renew his contract in Florida)

Who would do it?

E-Rod - McDavid - Reinhart
Verhaeghe - Barkov - Tkachuk

Replace Er-Rod with Bennett.

 

[toddkaz]

Purely hypothetical...

Some ideas I came up with (only Eastern) :

OTT - COZENS + Yakemchuk + Merilainen + 2027 OTT 1st
TOR - RIELLY + Cowan + Danford + Hildeby
CAR - KOTKANIEMI + Nadeau + 2026 CAR 1st + 2026 DAL 1st
NJD - PALAT + Nemec + Silayev + Yegorov

Are you trying to be made fun of?

 

[Dr Pepper]

Giving your scraps for a top 3 player all time?

It would be more like Tkachuk +++. You'd most likely have to give two of your top 6 for McDavid. With some draft picks or prospects.

I think people are way underestimating the value of McDavid.

Easy there, let's pump the brakes on that kind of talk.

 

[Telos]

Edmonton is all-in win or bust mode. I don't think there is any chance they trade McDavid, even if he somehow outright said he wasn't signing with Edmonton and wanted to test free agency. Of course, if they somehow had the wherewithall to do so, trading him with 50% retention at any point in the season would probably yield the nicest rental package ever received from virtually any team. Every contender in the league would be fools if they didn't pay whatever price was necessary to add him.

That said, Edmonton is damned no matter what they do with McDavid and sort of either have to throw him a blank check and if he doesn't stay they have to let him walk where he will get a blank check wherever he chooses. Zero chance he is traded.

 

[DJJones]

Oilers would 100% retain 50% to maximize return.

You don't trade away McDavid and still try to go for it that year. Recoup some assets and go a different direction the following year.

 

[DomBarr]

I rarely create threads and while this is a bit early, several current posts got me thinking (not always a good thing).
I’m guessing he stays with the Oil … BUT

McDavid decides he’s done in Edmonton, He does however give them permission to move him to a contender.
If (IF) the Oilers retain 50% and will except a cap dump (along with a LOT of value) what does your contender team offer to add 50% retained McDavid at the TDL?

An already good team + McDavid would seem to be unbeatable.

Except that the pieces to get him would make that good team quite a bit worse since I don't think Edmonton would accept going back into rebuild mode AGAIN so the return would have to include high end players under contract.

If McDavid is done in Edmonton I am not sure the Oilers would be happy with the return if he was moved to a contender. Edmonton's preferred destination would be a team coming out of a rebuild (Anaheim/Utah/Montreal/Ottawa/Philly etc) so they can get young high end cost controlled talent.

 

[colchar]

McDavid has 11 multi-point games this year, including 2/3 against the panthers. I think we should definitely judge him on his last game though.

The statement was that they can score at will. Game #3 proves that statement to be false, unless they just didn't want to score that game.

I believe Matthews has 14 in his career as a point of reference.

How is that even remotely relevant? Don't assume because I am a Leafs fan that I am also a fan of Captain America. I am not.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

1. (also, 2, 3, 4, etc.) McD is NOT going anywhere, unless he PERSONALLY decides to leave for some inexplicable reason heretofore not apparent.
OP should not be derided for asking hypothetical given all variables in the equation.

But that said, if the underlying premise is Oil have to do something signif to make McD a happy camper, then I see Drai for a huge haul, not McD




cap bal will not require LeoDrai w/retention

LeoDrai + Bouch + maybe x ________________ + maybe small cap dump
for
Shesterkin, Fox, Trocheck + 2 acceptable prospects

why Oil:
McD happy to have elite G long term
Fox could walk after 3 more seasons, but he is still not elite but a superior D who can manage the backline and is locked in at less than what Bouch will make
Tro = good pivot w/elite FO% wins

why Rs
stud 1C
they package a core of Bouch + Schneider + prospect Cs Laba, Sykora to LA
for a core of Byfield + Helenius. Ks reluctantly do this b'c they can squeeze another season, maybe 2, out of Kopitar, even if he drops from now mid level 1C to elite 3C at reduced time, and need to more urgently address wafer thin D, esp RD, situation -- which is on tinderhooks if Doughty falls off a cliff overnight and Gav walks
this deal allows LA to use By's 6+ cap to lock up Gav + Schneid

NY then retains + extends KAM long term

Zib at half + acceptable pick/prospects
for
Zegras + Helleson

Zeg may be more open to stay w/Kreider in ANA, but he may also want to go east = home
so this is a fit

LaF to MON for Reinbacher

Rs have stud D prospect in Garand

this deal straightens out NYR F situation and ok in G, but D is a mess still to be resolved

but again no McD to anywhere 99% of all scenarios, this is the radical shakeup Oil do if McD demands something
hard to imagine a better package for Drai that fits EDM needs than this^

What the eff is this? You honestly believe that McDavid is re-signing for 8 years and have his self proclaimed "Ride or Die" traded? Why would Draisaitl, who just signed his own 8 year deal, waive his NTC when McDavid re-signs?

Absolutely zero thought put into this proposal outside of "I want Draisaitl on the Rangers, want to dump Trocheck and don't want to pay a goalie $11.5M". All players mentioned outside of Bouch have some sort of trade protection as well.