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Value of: If McDavid doesn’t extend

Space umpire

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Nov 15, 2018
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I rarely create threads and while this is a bit early, several current posts got me thinking (not always a good thing).
I’m guessing he stays with the Oil … BUT

McDavid decides he’s done in Edmonton, He does however give them permission to move him to a contender.
If (IF) the Oilers retain 50% and will except a cap dump (along with a LOT of value) what does your contender team offer to add 50% retained McDavid at the TDL?

An already good team + McDavid would seem to be unbeatable.
 
There's no reason that Edmonton would retain 50% unless they were planning to go into a rebuild, which wouldn't make sense, as they have Draisaitl, Bouchard, Ekholm, Hyman, Hopkins, Kane, Nurse, Kulak, Walman and Henrique signed for next season. They could retain zero (or very very little) and bring in at least 2 very good players to add to that group, and continue contending for the cup. Not unlike Messier and the Oilers winning another cup after Gretzky was traded to the Kings.

I understand the premise of the thread, but it just wouldn't happen.
 
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lanceuppercut75 said:
Purely hypothetical...

Some ideas I came up with (only Eastern) :

OTT - COZENS + Yakemchuk + Merilainen + 2027 OTT 1st
TOR - RIELLY + Cowan + Danford + Hildeby
CAR - KOTKANIEMI + Nadeau + 2026 CAR 1st + 2026 DAL 1st
NJD - PALAT + Nemec + Silayev + Yegorov
Click to expand...

Those are all really weak packages considering what they're being traded for.
 
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If I were Edmonton and he told me he wasn’t willing to sign an extension, I’d still opt to run it back. They have two players who can score at will in the playoffs, quality defense and solid enough wings. Yeah, you need a goalie (how the f*** did they not outbid Col for Blackwood). At the deadline maybe look for a 2C and a goalie; pay for double retention. You can’t possibly be as close as they are, and choose not to go for it.

Failing to win a cup with McDavid and Drai would be a massive black mark. I’m confident he’ll re-sign, but even if he won’t, you spend every dime you have to take one more chance. And, if you win? He’s probably coming back.

Once they sign Frederic and Bouchard they’ll likely be just over the cap. Who do they love- Kulak?
 
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lanceuppercut75 said:
There's no reason that Edmonton would retain 50% unless they were planning to go into a rebuild, which wouldn't make sense, as they have Draisaitl, Bouchard, Ekholm, Hyman, Hopkins, Kane, Nurse, Kulak, Walman and Henrique signed for next season. They could retain zero (or very very little) and bring in at least 2 very good players to add to that group, and continue contending for the cup. Not unlike Messier and the Oilers winning another cup after Gretzky was traded to the Kings.

I understand the premise of the thread, but it just wouldn't happen.
Click to expand...


Oilers retaining on McDavid is funny
 
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lanceuppercut75 said:
There's no reason that Edmonton would retain 50% unless they were planning to go into a rebuild, which wouldn't make sense, as they have Draisaitl, Bouchard, Ekholm, Hyman, Hopkins, Kane, Nurse, Kulak, Walman and Henrique signed for next season. They could retain zero (or very very little) and bring in at least 2 very good players to add to that group, and continue contending for the cup. Not unlike Messier and the Oilers winning another cup after Gretzky was traded to the Kings.

I understand the premise of the thread, but it just wouldn't happen.
Click to expand...
Exactly.

People just don't seem to understand that McDavid is resigning in Edmonton, this is just internet fantasy and noise.
 
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wetcoast said:
Exactly.

People just don't seem to understand that McDavid is resigning in Edmonton, this is just internet fantasy and noise.
Click to expand...
Like I've said with Quinn, it's very seldom a captain, especially ones of good character choose to leave in their prime unless the teams going into a long rebuild.

The only way I see that even remotely happening is if they overpay Bouchard and run back the same team.
I've said it a million times, the oilers roster mostly sucks and without McDrai are a lottery, team.
TBH, they aren't in an envious position in cap space, youth, or prospects.
Not gonna be easy finding a real #1 goalie and some depth scoring.
 
lanceuppercut75 said:
Arvidsson (trade or buyout).
Click to expand...

Man, what an awful signing that was.
colchar said:
Apparently you didn't watch game #3.
Click to expand...

McDavid has 11 multi-point games this year, including 2/3 against the panthers. I think we should definitely judge him on his last game though.

Same story for Drai, aside from it being 10 games.

I believe Matthews has 14 in his career as a point of reference.
 
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lanceuppercut75 said:
Purely hypothetical...

Some ideas I came up with (only Eastern) :

OTT - COZENS + Yakemchuk + Merilainen + 2027 OTT 1st
TOR - RIELLY + Cowan + Danford + Hildeby
CAR - KOTKANIEMI + Nadeau + 2026 CAR 1st + 2026 DAL 1st
NJD - PALAT + Nemec + Silayev + Yegorov
Click to expand...
That canes offer is pretty funny. So they get McDavid for Nadeau. The two first are for taking Kotkaniemis contract
 
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I just don't see how this would actually play out...

"Move to a contender" - is Edmonton, the team that has been to 2 straight Stanley Cup Finals, not the best possible contender he can be on?

I also don't see how he's going to pull a Marner and go into the season without contract done. He just doesn't seem to be that personality.
 
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For starters, not happening. McDavid is definitely extending, and these conversations will be a thing of the past by late summer.

But IF he decided not to extend, there’s not really a futures based package from another contender that would make sense. Any offer would have to contain a really good piece. Something like:

From Dallas - Wyatt Johnston + 2027 1st for McDavid @ 50%

From NJ - Hischier + Nemec for McDavid @ 50% + Kulak

Those I would consider, as it has future elements but also a piece that helps now (though major downgrade from McDavid).
 
wetcoast said:
Exactly.

People just don't seem to understand that McDavid is resigning in Edmonton, this is just internet fantasy and noise.
Click to expand...
This entire forum section is fantasy and noise. But it can be fun. Never seen another sports forum where fanbases battle each other for imaginary transactions.

IMO if McDavid was ever going to move from his situation, it would be for a market like New York. There are no competitive reasons why he'd move and hockey stars don't attempt to create superteams from behind the scenes like in the NBA.
 
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While he's the best player in the league, if he's not extending then he's by default a rental. Any true contender that he'd want to go to already has most of the pieces in place &, even for him, won't want to give up a lot to get him. Maybe if he said he'd sign a long term contract with the new team.

However I think he stays in Edmonton.
 
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Rec T said:
While he's the best player in the league, if he's not extending then he's by default a rental. Any true contender that he'd want to go to already has most of the pieces in place &, even for him, won't want to give up a lot to get him. Maybe if he said he'd sign a long term contract with the new team.

However I think he stays in Edmonton.
Click to expand...
Rantanen went from one contender to another and then another.
If Oilers trade him they would want something similar to what COL received .

Replacement 2C and a couple other holes plugged.. Oilers would be contending even if they trade him.

If McD wants to go to a contender then he might as well just stay where he is
 
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Edmonton has Draisaitl. They may not want to go into a full rebuild. If McDavid is traded, I think it will look more like a hockey trade. Something closer to the Matthew Tkachuk trade in format.

Some of these offers don't make a lot of sense. Even 1 more year of McDavid with the potential for another cup final run is worth more to the Oilers than these offers, that are effectively 2-4 first round picks.

Even without an extension, the offers would have to be ridiculous. I look at a team like Dallas, and you could put together a package around Robertson, Harley, and Marchment. Something like that.

You have to find a team with multiple star players who have some level of team control and are most likely RFAs, so that it can be close to cap in/out.

Even getting McDavid without an extension is worth it. The moment a team acquires him, the arena and luxury boxes are sold out for the season. It also gives them the inside track to extending him, even if he wants to test the market.
 
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