If he played today, Gretzky would at least put up Marner numbers?

[MadLuke]

Also that year a kid named Jagr got 99 points.

Only 29 on the PP that year (was he all year on the first PP unit or a mix of Stevens-Francis-Murphy-Tocchet-Mario)

70 pts at EV was a bit more than Wayne 62.. I am not sure peak 149 points Jagr could not have come close to that type of 150 pts total in the 1994 league.

 

[wetcoast]

He'd probably double Marner

So 180ish+ points would mean that a team with Gretzky on it would score over 360 goals last season approximately?

The top team BTW scored 302 goals.

Year before when McDavid hit 153 points the Oilers scored 325 goals.

I understand the gut reaction but logically it's hard to actually defend unless you think that gretzky was going to score a higher% of his teams points than he ever did in real life.

Realistically he tops out at around 150-160 points but even then it's not a lock.

This is why these types of threads don't make much sense people can literally say anything.

 

[MadLuke]

that a team with Gretzky on it would score over 360 goals last season approximately?

Yes Gretzky team would score a lot more goal than the next best team in that scenario.

Lemieux penguins in 1996 scored 362 goals, almost 40 more than the Colorado-Detroit powerhouse despite Mario missing 12 games. In the game mario played the Penguins scored at a 4.73 goal per games average, that a 387-388 goals season when no one else scored 330 goals, even those Wings and Avs. The % of goal team points analysis I see(maybe not by you) often seem to diminish a great player making his team scoring a lot of goals in that process and how hard it is to gain a very large percentage because you add goals to your team.

And during McDavid 105 pts seasons the Oilers scored "only" 183 goals at that kind of pts share you kind do 180 pts on a 314 goals team.

How many more goals than the second best offense in the nhl you think an peak Greztky team score ?

 

[The Panther]

Case in point a much older and battered Gretzky led the NHL in points by 10 in 1994. This was a league that had already had the European invasion and yet a Gretzky we all agree is in some cases a shadow of his former self still led the NHL in points and assists.

Indeed. Gretzky's 130 points are the low-end of what he would have scored that year had he played on (a) a decent team (not that L.A. couldn't score -- they were sixth in offense) and (b) motivated all through the season. Gretzky was phoning it in towards the end of that season as his club was going to miss the playoffs for the first time in his career and he had nothing to play for.

1993-94 Gretzky's first 44 games:
80 points in 44 games (-3)
82-game PACE = 149 points (-6)

1993-94 Gretzky's final 36-and-a-half games:
50 points in 37 games (-22)
82-game PACE = 111 points (-49)

It looks like he totally phoned-in the last 8 games or so after he broke the Howe goal record, as there was just nothing to play for.

And yet, despite his team depression (owner going to prison; team unable to pay salaries), nothing to play for, being three years past his prime and in his 16th pro-season, he still won the scoring title by 10 points (missing some games) over maybe the most talent-laden collection of players the League has ever seen at one time, including young Europeans like Fedorov, Bure, Mogilny, etc.

Now, imagine how that would look if Gretzky was on a good team and having his peak seasons in the early / mid-1990s.

I can get behind this. When Wayne won his 1994 Art Ross with 130 points, this was post-Suter hit so I consider this at the tail end of his prime, but then again maybe not prime.

Yeah, I would say basically his first three seasons in L.A. are still his prime, but getting into the end of his prime by 1990-91. He was never the same again after September 1991.

 

[wetcoast]

Yes Gretzky team would score a lot more goal than the next best team in that scenario.

It seems unlikely though for several reasons.

! Gretzky would be hard pressed to be scoring goals like he did in the 80s with the type of equipment and goaltending styles.

Also the second main reason falls partly into the Pens season listed below which I will tackle in 2 parts.

First off the Pens scored 109 PPG on 420 PP opportunities and the best PP in recent times was the McDavid Oilers in 22-23 where they scored 89 goals in 275 PPO.

The second most PPG were the Sens who scored 72 goals in 306 PPO.

But to me the biggest factor is the lack of blowout games and the run and gun style, since it really in't condusvie to winning hockey in the post expansion era.

In addition to the large number of run and gun games there was a smaller number of tight shutout, 1 and 2 goal games.

Gretzky famously once said something to the affect that the Oilers would win games 8-6 and that's kind of how they played and that's how Mario's teams played and they didn't sacrifice defense, they generally didn't play defense and tried the 7-5 stye as well.

In 95-96 the Pens scored these totals

10- one game (Mario had a 1-6-7 line that game)
9-4 times
8- 5 games (including a 10-8 loss to San Jose)
9- 7 times

There just aren't as many runaway games and remember when Tage was sat down after scoring 5 goals early in a game, showboating is just frowned upon much more now than in the past.

Lemieux penguins in 1996 scored 362 goals, almost 40 more than the Colorado-Detroit powerhouse despite Mario missing 12 games. In the game mario played the Penguins scored at a 4.73 goal per games average, that a 387-388 goals season when no one else scored 330 goals, even those Wings and Avs. The % of goal team points analysis I see(maybe not by you) often seem to diminish a great player making his team scoring a lot of goals in that process and how hard it is to gain a very large percentage because you add goals to your team.

The thing is that mario played 40 home games that year and 30 on the road

Home 40-44-60-104
Road 30-25-32-57

Also in the following year we see Mario with a line of 76-50-72-122 and the team scored 285 goals and only 74 on the PP in 339 opportunities as league dynamics changed that much in a single season apart.

Instead of 73 PPP Mario had 37.

It's also unlikely that Mario would be granted the option of cherry-picking in his limited PK role today as he wasn't a very good defensive player.

And during McDavid 105 pts seasons the Oilers scored "only" 183 goals at that kind of pts share you kind do 180 pts on a 314 goals team.

Sure but that wasn't any regular kind of regular season either with long road trips, games were back to back home games against the same team, sometimes 3 games in a row against the same team ect.... so it's to extrapolate that into a regular season.

Much like Ovechkin winning the Hart in 12-13 in an unbalanced schedule.

Also glancing back at the 20-21 season and looking at the teams in the division in the year before they were the 12th,18,19,23,25 and 30th best defensive teams the season before.

Of course things do change from season to season but it seems like McDavid had a bit of a perfect storm here.

How many more goals than the second best offense in the nhl you think an peak Greztky team score ?

Depends entirely on the team but a guy like Farkas might be able to watch some film and break down in a WAG (wild assed guess) kind of way on how his goal scoring translates between the eras as I think his playmaking and hockey sense would translate better but I doubt that he would be a yearly Richard candidate even in his prime today.

I mean gretzky twice won the goal scoring title by close to 30 goals, would he even translate to winning 2 by 15 goals today?

That's very doubt full IMO.

During Gretzky's peak dozens of players every year scored at 20%+ shooting % since the 1976 seasons it's sometimes 1 or 2 guys and only more than 5 several times and never double digits even with more teams and players.

Alot of Gretzky's and to a lesser extent Mario's video game numbers came in best case scenarios conditions that would be almost impossible to replicate today.

If one were to guess maybe 30 or 40 more goals at best and even that's doubt full than the second best team but even then it would depend on a lot of factors.

There just seem to be quite a few factors that the numbers would indicate that no one is scoring 180ish points in the NHL last season from any peak player in history IMO.

 

[jigglysquishy]

The mid 80s Oilers were scoring 10-20% more goals than the top offensive teams of the era. The modern Oilers are at the tops, but still part of the offensive pack.

Today, the top offensive teams are scoring 300-310 goals. The equivalent is 335-360ish goals per season.

Gretzky regularly was involved in 45-50% of his team's goals. So 150-180 points.

Gretzky absolutely raised the total goal output of his team. We see it now with McDavid and Kucherov too.

A 2024 Gretzky team would score substantially more goals than that same team without Gretzky.

We've just witnessed 3 140 point seasons including a 153 point season in the last two years. 160+ is absolutely possible from Gretzky.

 

[MadLuke]

But to me the biggest factor is the lack of blowout games

13 games the Oilers scored 6 or more this year, lot of those in 6-1, 7-2, 8-2, 9-2 blowout.

Scoring in last season, 1996 or even 1991 when post peak Gretzky scored 163 pts is not that different (a bit in composition for 1996 because it was PPO heavy, but not totals)

90-91, make the top 10 you needed 101 pts, the average team scored 276
95-96, make the top 10 you needed 107 pts, the average team scored 258
23-24, make the top 10 you needed _98 pts, the average team scored 253

Today NHL is not low scoring anymore and Gretzky was not relying in his prime on the powerplay at all, that more a thing for Mario.

It seems unlikely though for several reasons.

Well if you think it is unlikely that Gretzky teams would score more goals than the next highest scoring, your issue is maybe not with those team scoring and pts percentage, you just disagree with the idea that Gretzky is the best offensive player ever, which is a different affair (and completely fair opinion to have).

McDavid achieved to have the best offensive team the last 4 years, above the Avs, Leafs, Panthers that are loaded, just by a little yes, but during a good year like 23 it was a good gap.

One way to look at it, the Kings lost their previous season 55 goals scorer in 1989 yet the team went from
318 goals -> 376 goals (most in the league by a good amount, above super team Flames and Mario pens)

How talking about how it was impossible for Gretzky to score 168 pts because the Kings were just a sub 310 goals teams (318 minus Carson) would really help us make a prediction ?

And that not 21-26 years old pre-injuries Gretzky anymore, if you put young peak Gretzky on a good team this year (Tampa-Canucks type), you can possibly add 25% to their goals total and that's all you need to have a team scoring 360 of them last year, with Gretzky getting close to 50% points of the team goals total he gets close to 180pts.

 

[blogofmike]

Gretzky's teams scored a lot more than other teams did at even strength.

Year	Oilers ESG	Kings ESG	NHL Avg	Gretzky ESP	10th place ES Scorer
1986​	321​	206​	224​	143​	67​
1987​	274​	212​	212​	124​	61​
1988​	255​	204​	195​	91​	59​
1989​	215​	272​	202​	100​	59​
1990​	209​	251​	208​	96​	65​
1991​	196​	252​	194​	103​	61​

He was on pace for 100 in the two years where he missed time and only hit 90+, No other player has more than one 100 ES point season.

Guy Lafleur's 104 ES points in 1977 is the next best non-Gretzky year, tied with Gretzky 1981 for 7th. Gretzky has 6 seasons with 124-147 ES points.

10th place Rantanen had 64 ES points this year, though if you account for league size expanding by about 50%,, Marner/Hyman are tied at 57.

The table seems to indicate that Gretzky was creating offense. So it would be inaccurate to take a team's GF totals and assign Gretzky a share. He's not a run of the mill top line forward who mostly collects points by virtue of his role and ice time, he's the most dangerous scorer in the history of hockey.

Edmonton was the best ES scoring team in the NHL. They trade Gretzky, and all of a sudden, Los Angeles is the best ES scoring team in the NHL. And as part of the trade, the Oilers got Jimmy Carson, a 59 ES point scorer on the 1988 Kings, who scored 65 ES points on the 1989 Oilers, scoring at around the same level as he did in LA.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

The mid 80s Oilers were scoring 10-20% more goals than the top offensive teams of the era. The modern Oilers are at the tops, but still part of the offensive pack.

Today, the top offensive teams are scoring 300-310 goals. The equivalent is 335-360ish goals per season.

Gretzky regularly was involved in 45-50% of his team's goals. So 150-180 points.

Gretzky absolutely raised the total goal output of his team. We see it now with McDavid and Kucherov too.

A 2024 Gretzky team would score substantially more goals than that same team without Gretzky.

We've just witnessed 3 140 point seasons including a 153 point season in the last two years. 160+ is absolutely possible from Gretzky.

THIS is the answer. Funny I was watching a few clips of Gretzky recently and I am surprised how similar McDavid's goal scoring is to Wayne's. Often subtle or sneaky deflections off of goalies or players making an impossible angle or situation look easy. So YES 160+ for Wayne is totally in the cards.

Seems like we have these, "would Gretzky score XX points today's NHL" every year...

 

[BigDucky]

If peak Wayne Gretzky played all 82 games last season, then I believe he would have gotten at least 101 assists, and at least 70 goals.

It seems to me that a player scoring 180+ points in the 1980s was just as impossible then as it is today. People always bring up how easy it was to score in the 80s, but when you press them they can only name one other guy who ever put up Gretzky level numbers.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

If peak Wayne Gretzky played all 82 games last season, then I believe he would have gotten at least 101 assists, and at least 70 goals.

It seems to me that a player scoring 180+ points in the 1980s was just as impossible then as it is today. People always bring up how easy it was to score in the 80s, but when you press them they can only name one other guy who ever put up Gretzky level numbers.

Yup. These are the leading scorers in the 1986-1987 season:

 

[Crosby2010]

Sure, not saying Gretzky isn't awesome, or couldn't hang whatver. Those guys are great and all. So let's take '82, Gretzkty wins the Art Ross by 65 points over Mike Bossy. Lemieux's not in NHL yet, Yzerman not in NHL yet. Bossy, Statstny, Maruk, Trottier, Savard, Dionne, Smith, Ciccarelli, Taylor. That's your 2-9. It's not like these guys are as good as McDavid. As a collective, they probably weren't even as good the Soviets who weren't in the NHL at that time.

My point is more so that McDavid CAN hang, definitely. Like I'm not saying every guy from the early 80s is trash but Gretzky beating Dale Hawerchuk or whatever by 1,000 points doesn't mean he's doing the same with McDavid, who is the best offensive player since Lemieux and around that level while showing a lot better ability to play a full season than Mario ever could.

I mean, you just rhymed off some Hall of Famers. Lots of them. Bossy, Stastny, Trottier, Dionne and Savard are all lock cinches. Ciccarelli is one too albeit more marginal. Maruk, Smith and Taylor all were playing like one back in 1982. I don't know where to rank 1982 as far as competition for offense but you really picked a weird year to say "See, Gretzky wasn't all that." This was Bossy's best year, it was Stastny's best year, it was Trottier's best year and it was by far Maruk's best year. Savard and Dionne had better years but were still elite, Smith never played better and Dino had his best NHL season.

I can think of plenty of post lockout seasons in the NHL where the offensive competition was weak. Jamie Benn won an Art Ross one year for example. This was the year McDavid was drafted. And there really isn't that year with Gretzky in the 1980s where he had weak competition. All of those years were great years that way. Saying McDavid is better than all of those guys is fine, but McDavid doesn't get 212 points in 1982. He probably surpasses Bossy's 147, as he did in 2023 anyway, but we are still talking about the singular best season Bossy ever had. I mean, how much better do you think McDavid would have been than that? A little bit, but Gretzky is still lapping him in 1982.

One thing always forgotten about Gretzky was his work ethic. He never took a night off. He was driven night in and night out. It is perhaps one of the biggest assets he ever had

 

[JianYang]

Of course he would. Gretzky's game is not era dependent, and he would excel in whatever era he was in. That's what makes guys like gretzky, and Mario special.

When Mario came back in 2000 after three years off at age 35, essentially putting up 76 points in a half season, I mean that says it all.

 

[Staniowski]

Of course he would. Gretzky's game is not era dependent, and he would excel in whatever era he was in. That's what makes guys like gretzky, and Mario special.

When Mario came back in 2000 after three years off at age 35, essentially putting up 76 points in a half season, I mean that says it all.

Gretzky's game WAS era dependent to a significant degree, and we know this from his own career, we don't have to guess or imagine it. His career passed through some big changes in the game.

Gretzky would be a great player in any era, but his game was affected by improvements in skating and defense. In particular, his goal-scoring was significantly affected. His skating, lack of strength, shooting were all issues vis-a-vis a better league.

 

[VanIslander]

His skating, lack of strength, shooting were all issues vis-a-vis a better league.

If only he could have shot more goals...

And his skating....



He wasn't the fastest, but he was the best:

 

[Staniowski]

I think a good way to characterize Gretzky and how he would do in different eras, is that he feasted on weakness - probably better than any hockey player ever, and as his career went along, there was less and less weakness to feast upon. And that's why he had more difficulty scoring in a tougher NHL. It affected everybody, of course, but Gretzky more so than Messier and Lemieux.

 

[VanIslander]

I think a good way to characterize Gretzky and how he would do in different eras, is that he feasted on weakness - probably better than any hockey player ever, and as his career went along, there was less and less weakness to feast upon. And that's why he had more difficulty scoring in a tougher NHL.

Difficulty scoring? In his 19th & 20th year of pro hockey he led the NHL both years in assists. His scorers in New York were not HHOFers propping up Bernie on a weekend.

Feasted on weakness?... I guess so, since Bill Belichick won a record 8 Superbowl rings that way.

But feasting on weakness with greatness is what happened. Even 35+ years old, Gretzky was still great.

 

[The Panther]

Gretzky's game WAS era dependent to a significant degree, and we know this from his own career, we don't have to guess or imagine it. His career passed through some big changes in the game.

Gretzky would be a great player in any era, but his game was affected by improvements in skating and defense. In particular, his goal-scoring was significantly affected. His skating, lack of strength, shooting were all issues vis-a-vis a better league.

No.

The NHL in, say, 1981 and 1991 was drastically different. This 10-year period might be the biggest change and improvement in the game in any decade of its history. (In fact, the changes between about 1982 and 1988 were extreme.)

According to you, Gretzky was hugely affected by these changes. But he wasn't:
1981
164 points
1991
163 points

Gretzky fell off a cliff as an ES point producer (from by far the best of all time to below Ray Ferraro) in 1991-92 overnight. This falling off had absolutely nothing to do with improvements in the game in 1992. In fact, it was "easier" for top players to score points in 1993 than it had been in 1990, 1991, or 1992. But Gretzky was scoring less.