drury is a prospect of ours that i am bullish on. there's a quality in some players that have trouble with level adjustments in their first pass because they don't quite know how good they are and their confidence wavers. morgan geekie is an example. when they finally understand their skill edge, they trust themselves more to be creative. drury brought his nhl pedigree to waterloo and just had a tough time that first year finding a role and that turned some scouts against his upside. but in his second pass in that league, he was head and shoulders above where he was the season prior. my biggest evaluation tool is grading the player against himself. virtually any prospect with nhl aspirations is going to put up the counting stats wherever they play, but the how is really important. 12 points in 52 games including 0-0-0- -4 in the playoffs the year before his draft season just tanked his stock. it's the same league that the jack hughes of the world were just ripping up with the development team at like 2 ppg. but the next season he looked like a new player and his talent started to play. scouts didn't know what to make of it, because the optics from his draft season were a first round player but his performance the year prior was just abysmal. a lot of outlets took the middle of the road of putting him in the 60's, which is right around where you start to see shoulder shrugs in evaluations like it could go either way.
the freshman year at harvard was good, but not jump off the page. there were signs, but nothing compared to how supernova he went during his sophomore season. i think if he was to stay at harvard for his junior year, he would have been the odds on favorite for the hobey baker. when you talk about beating a league, what he put on tape there was just far and away the best hockey of his life. in fact, it was so good that part of me started to get jumpy about the risk of allowing him to play his junior season. we aren't out of the woods yet, because my thought process is that if he wanted to turn professional, why wasn't he signed by carolina and then loaned to the swedish club of his choosing? perhaps there's some things there i don't know about the process and why he decided to do it this way, but if jack drury calls you from harvard and says he's ready to go pro you fax the contract blank and let him fill it out. perhaps during this covid nonsense he didn't want to be committed to being dictated as to where he was required in the states for camps, etc. and just wants a bigger hockey challenge in a country where the situation is more stable. but it's hard not to see that as a lack of trust between player and organization. that scares me a little.
as for what to expect from him in the SHL next season, he has notoriously taken some time to warm to the task of a level change and this one is the biggest psychological barrier he's faced to this point. they will have to be patient with him and endure some early nerves, but he'll likely warm to the task as the season goes on and he starts to understand that he belongs. no insult intended to the SHL, but with the amount of elite talent that has started to develop in liiga to make the fins more comfortable staying home and the draw of the KHL for the veterans, the SHL is a bit of no man's land with as inconsistent as the swedish crops have been the past few drafts. hopefully his confidence is high enough to avoid the adjustment phase, but my expectation is for him to finish around 0.6-0.8 ppg after finding his feet.