OT: Hurricanes Lounge XXXIX, Yeah, I get that.

[tarheelhockey]

So today it's reported that a couple of gas pipes under the Baltic Sea started to leak from three places at one go in a curious unnatural fashion and there's been some underwater explosions.

But don't talk about it and don't tell anyone that I told you.

I'm still trying to figure out who stands to gain the most from this.

Leaning toward the idea that it's intended to take away Russia's biggest ace card. If it's impossible for them to deliver the gas, then they can't really use the gas as a hostage any more.

 

[Lempo]

I'm still trying to figure out who stands to gain the most from this.

Leaning toward the idea that it's intended to take away Russia's biggest ace card. If it's impossible for them to deliver the gas, then they can't really use the gas as a hostage any more.

I only know that the ones who did it know they did it and the ones who didn't do it know it wasn't them who did it. Everyone will obviously claim in the public that it was the other guy who did it for reason X.

A lot of parties had a motive to do it. Might even be there was a James Bondesque underwater diver fight if everyone turned up to do sabotage at the same time. Though there's synergy if your guys blast #1 and the other guys blast #2 so no need to fight.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Might even be there was a James Bondesque underwater diver fight if everyone turned up to do sabotage at the same time.

In scenarios where facts are ambiguous, there should be a general agreement to adopt these kinds of explanations as the official historical narrative.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The USA Seal Team Sixed that motherf***er, beleedat

 

[Lempo]

The USA Seal Team Sixed that motherf***er, beleedat

In European social media, this video has been tweeted a lot, and then the tweeter gets accused for repeating the obviously Russian information operation as all the Russobots allegedly exploded to force this video to the twitterspace.

Comrade.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Dunno where else to put it.

 

[NotOpie]

In European social media, this video has been tweeted a lot, and then the tweeter gets accused for repeating the obviously Russian information operation as all the Russobots allegedly exploded to force this video to the twitterspace.

Comrade.

Yeah, I saw additional speculation this AM that it was likely a Russian mini-sub operation. This was supposedly a shot across the bow at NATO. Less gas for Europe, supply constriction to increase prices....Still, that sounds very conspiracy theory-esque.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

In European social media, this video has been tweeted a lot, and then the tweeter gets accused for repeating the obviously Russian information operation as all the Russobots allegedly exploded to force this video to the twitterspace.

Comrade.

I mean, dude straight up said what he said. So now even if the US and A didn't actually do it, the best El Prez can now say is "we didn't actually do it, but we definitely totally would have."

 

[LakeLivin]

Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2; wasn't Biden's comment about 2, which was already suspended by Germany? And wasn't it the original Nord Stream pipeline that was hit? Actual questions, I'm not up on the matter.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Yeah, I saw additional speculation this AM that it was likely a Russian mini-sub operation. This was supposedly a shot across the bow at NATO. Less gas for Europe, supply constriction to increase prices....Still, that sounds very conspiracy theory-esque.

That’s kind of backwards, though. There’s no leverage if the pipeline isn’t operable. Russia is now unable to deliver that gas under any circumstances.

If they declared peace right now and all gas contracts were resumed… nothing would happen. Except for an embarrassing/costly/lengthy repair operation. So anyone tempted to pacify Putin for gas this winter just lost their argument.

 

[MinJaBen]

That’s kind of backwards, though. There’s no leverage if the pipeline isn’t operable. Russia is now unable to deliver that gas under any circumstances.

If they declared peace right now and all gas contracts were resumed… nothing would happen. Except for an embarrassing/costly/lengthy repair operation. So anyone tempted to pacify Putin for gas this winter just lost their argument.

Well, Russia still has pipelines to Europe that go through Ukraine. So the loss of the Nord Stream lines just makes those that much more valuable. So now there is both the incentive to make peace with Ukraine or completely conquer them.

Maybe the US did deep six the two Nord Stream lines to make the idea of using nukes in Ukraine (where the only pipelines to Europe are now) less palatable to the Russians?

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2; wasn't Biden's comment about 2, which was already suspended by Germany? And wasn't it the original Nord Stream pipeline that was hit? Actual questions, I'm not up on the matter.

Nord Stream 1 and 2 are both on the Baltic floor. Both experienced the same massive depressurization, which means both were presumably asploded.

Nord Stream 2 was never operational. Nord Stream 1 had been operational, but the Russians had recently cut off supply. Their excuse was that they could no longer get parts to service it properly because of the sanctions, but the general consensus is that they cut off the supply in response to Europe's continued opposition to the war.

Now both are non-functional, so Russia no longer has the option of turning those spigots back on. Any gas from Russia to Europe must now go through Ukrainian pipelines. Which means that if Russia makes money, Ukraine also makes money.

Of course, Europe has been stockpiling gas for months now, and are increasing their consumption from other sources. It'll be an expensive winter, but the supply shifts will become permanent, and prices will stabilize over time.

If the US had reasons to disable NS2, they have the exact same reasons to disable NS1. One presumes they wouldn't take such action unilaterally without notifying their European partners, but who knows. It's all conjecture at this point.

Here's the Guardian's take: Whether or not Russia was behind the Nord Stream blasts, little was at stake

 

[Lempo]

One presumes they wouldn't take such action unilaterally without notifying their European partners, but who knows.

This would be the same USA that a while back was caught eavesdropping on Merkel's phone.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

This would be the same USA that a while back was caught eavesdropping on Merkel's phone.

Everybody spies on everybody. Everybody does not blow up everybody else's shit.

 

[Lempo]

Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2; wasn't Biden's comment about 2, which was already suspended by Germany? And wasn't it the original Nord Stream pipeline that was hit? Actual questions, I'm not up on the matter.

Not much difference in practical terms, the route is the same. Two leaks on NS1 and one one NS2.

Apparently there is a Norway-Poland pipeline that was just inaugurated and goes east of Bornholm island so very close to those NS leaks. Some suggest that this sabotage is in response to the opening of that pipeline.

 

[Lempo]

Everybody spies on everybody. Everybody does not blow up everybody else's shit.

Well I don't know, this here case is like one of those detective books where someone gets murdered in a mansion and everyone and their maid have a motive.

I mentioned the Uniper debacle recently, where Germany nationalsocialized the systemic-to-Germany gas company owned by a Finland-owned company. In the build-up to the situation, Germany had prohibited Uniper from charging the actual costs from the German customers, causing Uniper to amass losses and sinking the value.

We were kind of expecting that Germany would now open the pipes and let the cheap gas flow and have the value of the company skyrocket and make it a blatant highway robbery. And now this should happen.

Wouldn't blame if someone suspected Finnish frogmen.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Oh, it's a *great* whodunnit, no doubt.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Apparently there is a Norway-Poland pipeline that was just inaugurated and goes east of Bornholm island so very close to those NS leaks. Some suggest that this sabotage is in response to the opening of that pipeline.

The Guardian article suggests that this is a possible Russian display of their ability to blow up somebody else's pipelines.

Now, why they wouldn't just... blow up somebody else's pipelines, instead of blowing up their own, is still a mystery to me. It's like showing how hard you can punch someone in the face by punching yourself in the face.

 

[MinJaBen]

Now, why they wouldn't just... blow up somebody else's pipelines, instead of blowing up their own, is still a mystery to me.

Seems like in their current situation, it would be prudent to not start a war with a NATO country. Sure, the likelihood of getting caught doing so was always very small, but in the off chance they were caught red handed doing that, it could be used as a pretext for article 5 of the charter. As it is not a forgone conclusion yet that Putin is a dead man, he probably is not greenlighting offensive operations against NATO countries just yet.

 

[Lempo]

The Guardian article suggests that this is a possible Russian display of their ability to blow up somebody else's pipelines.

Now, why they wouldn't just... blow up somebody else's pipelines, instead of blowing up their own, is still a mystery to me. It's like showing how hard you can punch someone in the face by punching yourself in the face.

Sometimes people get themselves beaten up so they can falsely accuse someone specific else to have done it and claim any benefit that comes from such accusation.

But on another point, those Nord Stream pipes were built to circumvent East Europe. Ukraine specifically maybe. Now with Nord Streams unfunctional, if Germany wants to get cheap Russian gas through the pipelines in Ukraine, they'd have to force Ukraine to make bad peace. And if the figures I've seen on the economic disaster the lack of cheap gas means for Germany are at all in the right vicinity, Germany wants badly some cheap gas.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Sometimes people get themselves beaten up so they can falsely accuse someone specific else to have done it and claim any benefit that comes from such accusation.

But on another point, those Nord Stream pipes were built to circumvent East Europe. Ukraine specifically maybe. Now with Nord Streams unfunctional, if Germany wants to get cheap Russian gas through the pipelines in Ukraine, they'd have to force Ukraine to make bad peace. And if the figures I've seen on the economic disaster the lack of cheap gas means for Germany are at all in the right vicinity, Germany wants badly some cheap gas.

But Russia has the leverage either way if NS1 exists. They haven't increased their leverage by blowing up their own pipeline, because the problem is the same: they're trying to pressure Germany and other NATO nations with gas, and so far, those nations aren't budging. Nothing about this move seems to change that. Either Germany/Europe are buying Russian gas, or they're not.

 

[Lempo]

Lol. The Bridge (2011-18) was a TV series that was I believe the first big hit in the genre of Nordic Noir. A mutilated body is found on the bridge right on the Danish-Swedish border, necessitating a couple of problematic cops from both countries to cooperate in the investigation.

The Bridge (2011 TV series) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

So as it happens, in the real world of 2022, both the Swedish police and the Danish police have started their own investigation on the Nord Stream pipe leaks on their respective sea bed.

Hilarity is probably gonna ensue.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Both experienced the same massive depressurization, which means both were presumably asploded.

Oh, how I wish that my middle school self had known about the word Assplosion.

 

[Lempo]

Heil Spode!

 

[ONO94]

Well I don't know, this here case is like one of those detective books where someone gets murdered in a mansion and everyone and their maid have a motive.

I mentioned the Uniper debacle recently, where Germany nationalsocialized the systemic-to-Germany gas company owned by a Finland-owned company. In the build-up to the situation, Germany had prohibited Uniper from charging the actual costs from the German customers, causing Uniper to amass losses and sinking the value.

We were kind of expecting that Germany would now open the pipes and let the cheap gas flow and have the value of the company skyrocket and make it a blatant highway robbery. And now this should happen.

Wouldn't blame if someone suspected Finnish frogmen.

And here I thought you were going to blame the explosion on the Unipiper--but alas...

there is always a chance the Underminer takes the blame.