OT: Hurricanes Lounge XXII: Wisdom Teeth Removal edition

Status
Not open for further replies.

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
So if there were a million doors, I'd have a 1/1000000 chance of being correct initially, but if he eliminated it down to two doors, I should switch from my initial one, because the other one has a 99.9% of being correct?

That's what I was saying before. Your initial odds of your door being correct haven't changed after you get down to two doors. Why would they? Because there are two doors? Remember, the host knows what's behind the doors. He's always going to manipulate the results in such a way that he presents you with an either/or scenario. So you're in either one of two states: 1) switching is bad because you picked right initially (highly unlikely) or 2) switching is good because you picked wrong initially (highly likely). Since the host eliminated all the other wrong answers, the winner is definitely behind one of two doors, but can you see why its not 50/50?
 

NotOpie

"Puck don't lie"
Sponsor
Jun 12, 2006
9,686
18,946
North Carolina
That's what I was saying before. Your initial odds of your door being correct haven't changed after you get down to two doors. Why would they? Because there are two doors? Remember, the host knows what's behind the doors. He's always going to manipulate the results in such a way that he presents you with an either/or scenario. So you're in either one of two states: 1) switching is bad because you picked right initially (highly unlikely) or 2) switching is good because you picked wrong initially (highly likely). Since the host eliminated all the other wrong answers, the winner is definitely behind one of two doors, but can you see why its not 50/50?

Is there a good looking girl at the end of the hallway? If not, who cares ....
 

Blueline Bomber

AI Generated Minnesota Wild
Sponsor
Oct 31, 2007
40,632
47,223
That's what I was saying before. Your initial odds of your door being correct haven't changed after you get down to two doors. Why would they? Because there are two doors? Remember, the host knows what's behind the doors. He's always going to manipulate the results in such a way that he presents you with an either/or scenario. So you're in either one of two states: 1) switching is bad because you picked right initially (highly unlikely) or 2) switching is good because you picked wrong initially (highly likely). Since the host eliminated all the other wrong answers, the winner is definitely behind one of two doors, but can you see why its not 50/50?

Ultimately, it doesn't matter, since if you believe it's 66% and I believe it's a coin toss, given the choice, we'd both likely switch doors, just because I believe I'd have an equal chance of winning, whether I switch or stay, but you'd want to switch.

But no, I still don't fully grasp it. Because I can't get over how eliminating wrong answers increases the odds of one door and not the other. Wouldn't the reduction of choices simply increase the odds of all remaining choices?

ABCDE - You pick D. You have a 20% of being correct. He eliminates E and asks if you want to switch.
ABCD - You pick A. You have a 25% of being correct. He eliminates D and asks if you want to switch.
ABC - You pick C. You have a 33% of being correct. He eliminates B and asks if you want to switch.
AC - You pick A. You have a 50% of being correct.

The prize is in either A or C. The prize has always been behind whatever door it's behind. The only thing that's changed is the odds that you choose that door. The host is eliminating choices, and you picked the wrong answer initially, but as the wrong answers are eliminated, you have a higher chance of being correct.

I'm sure I'm wrong somehow, but that's how it breaks down in my mind.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
Your initial odds dont change because the host isnt eliminating answers at random. He's purposely eliminating wrong answers. In every world it will come down to you having made the right initial choice (less likely) or wrong (more likely). Since the latter is more likely, you want to switch.
 

Carolinas Identity*

I'm a bad troll...
Jun 18, 2011
31,250
1,299
Calgary, AB
11986552_1123018681060867_2056019007289723880_n.jpg
 
Jul 18, 2010
26,714
57,511
Atlanta, GA
Maybe this example will help. It's always easier when there's more than just three doors.


Lets say there are 25 cases. One of them has $1,000,000 in them, all of the rest have nothing.

The host says "pick one case." You pick your case. Now there are 24 cases left.

The host takes away 23 cases, all of which have $0 in them (this was predetermined, there's no way that the host could've eliminated the $1,000,000, he is going to eliminate 23 $0 cases each time). Now there's the one you picked, and the other one. The host says "would you like to keep the case that you picked, or switch?" That's not 50/50, that's the host essentially "giving" you the $1,000,000 case, unless you happened to pick it right the first time, which is quite unlikely (only a 4% chance).

Basically, the host has said, "if you were right, you have the million dollars. If you were wrong, I am showing you the remaining case that has the million dollars. Do you think you were right?"


You can make this even more absurd. Let's say you're picking powerball numbers. You pick your number. Then, a genie comes and says "I have eliminated every other set of numbers that isn't correct. If you picked the right numbers the first time, the numbers in my pocket are nonsense. If you picked the wrong numbers the first time, the numbers in my pocket are correct." You'd never assume you picked correctly, that there's a 50/50 chance you have the right numbers, you'd know there's an absurdly small chance that you picked correctly, and you'd graciously thank the genie for giving you the correct numbers. This is the same thing, just with a LOT higher odds, and a LOT more eliminated wrong answers.

I suppose a tl;dr version of the original problem would be, "if you originally picked wrong, the host is essentially GIVING you which of the other two doors have the car." It's easy to see with 25 cases, the host automatically changes the odds for you, essentially GIVING you the winning case (unless you happened to pick right the first time).

The original problem is the same thing, just with less absurd odds. Lets say he didn't "reveal" the donkey, but instead phrased it like this. "You have picked a door. If you are right, you have the car. If you are wrong, I will tell you right now that the car is in door B." Now, all of the sudden, you have increased your odds. You've essentially changed it, so that if you switch, you've picked BOTH B AND C, because he revealed exactly where the car is, UNLESS you're right. Just like, with 25 cases, he took away all of the other wrong answers, so that you essentially win the $1,000,000 UNLESS you picked the $1,000,000 the first time.
 
Last edited:
Jul 18, 2010
26,714
57,511
Atlanta, GA
to everyone getting married soon or planning on doing it whenever

if you are making your groomsmen pay more than $150 to rent a tux (especially if you are young and most of your groomsmen are in college), you will make them very angry

if you are making them pay more than $200, they will get angry that you are even getting married in the first place

if you schedule your wedding during one of their college's home football games, you will make them explode

that is all
 

the halleJOKEL

strong as brickwall
Jul 21, 2006
14,605
25,991
twitter.com
i am getting married in less than two months in st thomas and made my groomsmen buy nice khaki pants and white button down shirts and it is also on the same day as an ohio state home game and my entire family is attending despite that fact amazingly enough hue hue hue

take that ohioans
 

Carolinas Identity*

I'm a bad troll...
Jun 18, 2011
31,250
1,299
Calgary, AB
i am getting married in less than two months in st thomas and made my groomsmen buy nice khaki pants and white button down shirts and it is also on the same day as an ohio state home game and my entire family is attending despite that fact amazingly enough hue hue hue

take that ohioans

sounds like you are planning on a zombie outbreak happening

oh wait

what's that

you work in the biotech..... for umbrella

hmmmm

this complicates things
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad