OT: Hurricanes Lounge XLVI: Really, It's All About Beer and Bojangles

[tarheelhockey]

It's not just IBM. Companies big and small are doing the same thing.

Exactly. IBM was a standard-setter that other companies had to compete with. When they walked benefits back, nobody else jumped up to establish new IBM-like benefits. Everyone just continued to peg their offerings to IBM, meaning smaller companies could get away with offering even less. The system that used to be the backbone of the white collar middle class in a town like Raleigh is now simply gone. Meaning people move in with their parents, rent rather than buying, wait a few more years for retirement.

It’s bad for everyone except the shareholders who get fluffed a little more each quarter.

 

[MinJaBen]

Again, if we all agree that there's a mental health issue component to (a majority) of these school shootings, why is there such resistance towards allowing good mental health treatment in this country? Especially in schools, where it's probably needed the most.

"Because it is your kid that is crazy and not mine, so don't tell me what to do. And I don't want to pay for any mumbo jumbo."

 

[Borsig]

No, it didn't mean that. That's just a straight up lie created by the gun lobby.

Here's a former Chief Justice on the subject- a man who was considered an arch conservative in his day:

Sorry, I'll take Thomas, thanks.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think what constitutes as a school shooting definition has changed, ie a shootings 2 blocks away not involving anyone at a school is being counted since it was in proximity.

An incident like that would not be counted as it doesn’t involve school property or students.

In any case, the curve is the same if we use the most basic definition possible — number of wounded/fatal victims on school property.

 

[Borsig]

So you challenge the room to think of a way to address the 2A without violating it; and when immediately presented with one, your response is “I will never compromise”, refusal to discuss further, and vague threats of violence?

I love ya, Borsig, but this is ain’t it. We have to be able to discuss and compromise. If not, this whole “respecting your Constitutional rights” thing becomes irrelevant in a hurry.

Live on my side of the gun control debate for your entire life where you're threatened every election cycle with becoming a felon with the stroke of a pen, and getting NOTHING and only taking, piece by piece by peice, and see how you feel about it?

The bill was on the table here in VA in 2019-20. My MOM would have been a FELON for the two mags she has that came with her glock 17.

So don't tell me it does'nt happen.

That bill died in committee by ONE vote. ONE. And theyve promised to bring it back when Youngkin is gone. So yeah. No. I don't trust anyone on gun control. No.

Just remember, after the first felony, the rest are free.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

From recent memory… Uvalde was such a fu^king disgrace.

ALL the red flags were there for Uvalde. He posted violent threats online before the shooting. He frequently posted about killing and abusing animals, some of which he livestreamed. He threatened to kill and rape other users on the livestream app. He also threatened to shoot up a school on the app. All of which was reported, but no action taken. Shortly before the shooting, he posted pictures of his firearm, with the message "10 days"

And that's not even getting into the police response to the shooting, which is a whole different level of incompetence.

 

[Unsustainable]

An incident like that would not be counted as it doesn’t involve school property or students.

In any case, the curve is the same if we use the most basic definition possible — number of wounded/fatal victims on school property.

Survey Confirms Americans Still Shockingly Ill-Informed About Gun Deaths

Gun control groups are leading us to overestimate how often school shootings occur and underestimate how safe students and teachers are.

www.dailysignal.com

I think this was the article that explained it best.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Survey Confirms Americans Still Shockingly Ill-Informed About Gun Deaths

Gun control groups are leading us to overestimate how often school shootings occur and underestimate how safe students and teachers are.

www.dailysignal.com

I think this was the article that explained it best.

Any guesses on how many mass shootings (shootings where 4 or more people are injured or killed) we've had this year?

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

ALL the red flags were there for Uvalde. He posted violent threats online before the shooting. He frequently posted about killing and abusing animals, some of which he livestreamed. He threatened to kill and rape other users on the livestream app. He also threatened to shoot up a school on the app. All of which was reported, but no action taken. Shortly before the shooting, he posted pictures of his firearm, with the message "10 days"

And that's not even getting into the police response to the shooting, which is a whole different level of incompetence.

Excuse my glibness… but what are the gun laws in the Gre… mostoverratedstateintheunionwithcalifornia like?

(Anecdotal evidence… yet I cannot help it)

 

[MinJaBen]

The juxtaposition of the school shootings/mental illness discussion with the cost of healthcare discussion is pretty ironic.

 

[Derailed75]

I think what constitutes as a school shooting definition has changed, ie a shootings 2 blocks away not involving anyone at a school is being counted since it was in proximity.

Like the definition of a mass shooting also changed. It's 3 or more people being killed at a time now. I know it's semantics but is there really anything in anyone's lives that 3 of is considered a "mass". I know 3 dollars wouldn't make me feel like I had a mass of money.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Sorry, I'll take Thomas, thanks.

Speaking of, Warren Burger’s accession to Chief Justice was reminiscent of how Neil Gorsuch achieved his role on the Court. When the prior Chief Justice, Earl Warren stepped down, President Johnson nominated Abe Fortas for Chief Justice. Fortas’ nomination stalled in Congress on a threatened filibuster from Strom Thurmond, and the clock ran out on the Johnson administration without another nomination. Richard Nixon became President, and nominated Burger who was swiftly confirmed.

Most Americans will recognize the names Warren and Burger, but nobody really remembers Abe Fortas. Why not? Because he was caught accepting funds from a wealthy corporate financier who was attempting to buy Fortas’ vote (and, allegedly, to buy his influence in securing a presidential pardon). Unlike 2024, this resulted in Fortas resigning from the SC in disgrace, under threat of being investigated by the Justice Department and potentially impeached for the obvious ethics violation inherent in a Supreme Court justice accepting funds from interested parties in SC cases.

Just a historical footnote as we track the gradual crumbling of public faith in our institutions.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Excuse my glibness… but what are the gun laws in the Gre… mostoverratedstateintheunionwithcalifornia like?

(Anecdotal evidence… yet I cannot help it)

I'm assuming you mean Texas, since we were talking about Uvalde. Based on a quick Google search:

- You must be 18 years or older (unless gifted a gun by a parent or guardian)
- You must pass a background check (No felonies or mental health institution visits)
- You must not be intoxicated when purchasing the weapon

 

[LakeLivin]

While there are a certain number of people who come out of the womb that way, it seems that a lot of these shooters and other violent criminals aren’t just irredeemable nutcase supervillains. A good number of them are coming out of environments where they aren’t receiving meaningful treatment, and in many cases their home life is unstable or neglectful. I’m not so sure there’s really A root cause in those cases… more like a root system where contributing factors add up over time.

Ideally we’d operate our society in such a way that homes lives are more stable, and schools are more orderly and enriching, and mental illness can be identified and treated early. There are a bunch of root issues that need to be addressed in those areas.

One thing that really needs to be done, and done yesterday, is to get serious about identifying and treating students for mental illness. I don’t think a lot of people are going to like what that means in practice, because it involves an army of psychologists and social workers that need to be paid a living wage, but that’s the reality of where we are.

This is just unacceptable:

Circa Virginia Tech and Sandy Hook, we all felt that school violence was out of hand and needed addressing. Well, it’s WAY worse now than it was back then. And we’re all still waiting on leadership with the stones to actually make an unpopular decision in order to do something about it.

In order to try to analyze trends and try to come up with solutions I'd really like to see that chart broken out by type of school and whether the shooter was a member of the school or an outsider. I see a college student who flips out and commits a mass shooting on campus more similar to a postal worker who flips out at his post office than an unaffiliated adult who enters an elementary school to murder as many as possible.

With respect to the latter, gotta believe that the rise in publicity (cable news even before social media) has played a role in the increase in number of events.

 

[Borsig]

Like the definition of a mass shooting also changed. It's 3 or more people being killed at a time now. I know it's semantics but is there really anything in anyone's lives that 3 of is considered a "mass". I know 3 dollars wouldn't make me feel like I had a mass of money.

I heard there was a "mass shooting" in baltimore the other day.

It was 2 cars of gangbangers shooting at each other.

Thus my point of my gun culture being different than other gun cultures.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Survey Confirms Americans Still Shockingly Ill-Informed About Gun Deaths

Gun control groups are leading us to overestimate how often school shootings occur and underestimate how safe students and teachers are.

www.dailysignal.com

I think this was the article that explained it best.

I don’t see how the article is relevant to what I was saying.

It’s true that school shootings are a small minority of total gun deaths, which include everything from accidents to suicides to gang battles to cops shooting bad guys.

It’s crazy that anyone would think school shootings kill more people than gang violence.

But it’s a fact that school shootings are WAY WAY up, not because of changes in definition but because more people are walking onto school grounds and pointing guns at people and pulling the trigger.

My three kids went from K to high school in Cary schools, which are as bland middle class America as it gets. My oldest has a 10+ year age gap over the other two. He went all the way through the end of high school without even a “gun on campus” incident, and I told all three of them often that the likelihood of ever being in an active shooter situation was like getting struck by lightning, nothing to worry about.

Ten years later, the younger two have already experienced THREE incidents of gun violence in middle and high school. One when a kid brought a loaded gun to school and it went off in the bathroom, shattering a toilet and thank god not someone’s skull. One when some boys scheduled an off-campus fight in a parking lot a block away from the school, and someone brought a gun — my middle kid had to make a police statement because he was walking down the street nearby when the squad cars arrived. The third one was in that same parking lot, during dismissal when a 17-year-old shot a 15-year-old. Was that last one defined as a school shooting at Cary HS? No, because the shooter and victim weren’t students at CHS and it was off campus. But it damn well happened during CHS dismissal with hundreds of students present, and sent hundreds of families scrambling to find out which 15-year-old was being rushed to a hospital.

These aren’t mental health incidents, these are teenaged idiots acting like teenaged idiots. The difference between now and 10 years ago is that it’s easy for them to get their hands on a firearm. They’re cheap and available everywhere, so all it takes to acquire one is intent. It’s not even about lax parents, it’s about the streets being flooded with cheap weapons being distributed by shady dealers.

Overlay this graph with the one upthread:

Incidentally, I just had to deactivate my credit card which was stolen. How did I find out? A gun shop near Fayetteville called me to verify the address on a MAIL ORDER using my stolen number. If they don’t make that phone call, that gun gets delivered to a criminal. That criminal sells it to… who? A law-abiding registered gun owner?

 

[Borsig]

Incidentally, I just had to deactivate my credit card which was stolen. How did I find out? A gun shop near Fayetteville called me to verify the address on a MAIL ORDER using my stolen number. If they don’t make that phone call, that gun gets delivered to a criminal. That criminal sells it to… who? A law-abiding registered gun owner?

You realize no gun can ship from an FFL to a non FFL holder right? (unless it's a repair or something of that nature where the receiver is already the owner of the firearm, or the CMP, who runs their own NICS) And that the CC has to match the name on the 4473 otherwise it's a straw purchase? How do I know? I used to be a partner in a dealer.

They literally can't send out a firearm where the trasnferee doesn't match the buyer.

That works like -
CC - John Doe
Shipping address - John Doe, C/O ABC firearms dealer (FFL #)

When the FFL receives the firearm, it can only be transferred to John Doe. Otherwise it's a straw. They dont ship the gun period. And the "criminal" can't pick up the gun because there has to be a 4473 filled out at the receiving FFL. The name and address on the 4473 have to match the name and address on the BOS from the shipping dealer, and the unit is logged into the receiving dealer's bound book.

So no. Someone calling didn't save a crime. The process and the laws in place did. Cause you know. We have laws on the books already.

No one takes a gun off an FFL's bound book without a 4473 on file, unless its a dealer to dealer transfer, bound book to bound book.


Also to your graph? There's a saying amongst people like me. Barack Obama was the best gun salesman in history. I can attest to that. The man NEVER shut up about bans. Notice how in the Trump years sales go down, then back up dramatically in 2020? That's people buying guns before they are banned because of all the threats. The jump from 2013 on is the post sandy hook effect. Anyone in my community remembers that.

Last ETA - The "misc firearms" jump from 2013 on is another issue, mostly based on Obama's ATF attempting to clamp down on certain things, the form 2 market, AOW market, and shotguns that are short barreled not being a shotgun or pistol

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Uninformed opinion: I've always thought there's a "breaking the seal" element (Sandy Hook) to all of this as well. Society is way more depressed and edgy than it was 10-15 years ago which doesn't help, but I think there's also an element of this being the new thing to do for people who are depressed and sick. The unthinkable isn't unthinkable anymore, basically, so now everyone who wants to be an edgelord to the end has their thing. You see that in the journals of this latest one - "suicide wouldn't be enough of a statement" or whatever.

I've always stayed away from the conversation because frankly I don't know how to fix it. I've just always had a constant nagging that tells me the "it's just the guns" crowd is missing a big side of it.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Live on my side of the gun control debate for your entire life where you're threatened every election cycle with becoming a felon with the stroke of a pen, and getting NOTHING and only taking, piece by piece by peice, and see how you feel about it?

The bill was on the table here in VA in 2019-20. My MOM would have been a FELON for the two mags she has that came with her glock 17.

So don't tell me it does'nt happen.

That bill died in committee by ONE vote. ONE. And theyve promised to bring it back when Youngkin is gone. So yeah. No. I don't trust anyone on gun control. No.

Just remember, after the first felony, the rest are free.

Nobody would have been instantly “made a felon” by that bill. You’re referring to the fact that possession of certain magazines would have become illegal after a six month grace period. Meaning owners would have had half a year to do whatever sell-back program, or just throw them down a hole or whatever they needed to do to no longer be in possession.

But that was reported very differently in certain media::

Virginia Dem who joined GOP to reject gun control bill says 2nd Amendment activists made a difference | Fox News

Virginia Dem who joined GOP to reject gun control bill says 2nd Amendment activists made a difference

www.foxnews.com

“In other words, if you went out and legally purchased a weapon or legally purchased a particular part, just simply by owning that you could become a class VI felon or class I misdemeanant. And that, to me, it's not fair, it's not due process, and that was what really bothered me the most”

^ That’s a quote by a state Senator, blatantly falsifying the meaning of the bill in a way that scares the shit out of people.

To your point about getting nothing — that bill was the outcome of negotiation and compromise. The original version was a more aggressive ban of categories of weaponry, which was negotiated down to a ban on specific components which have no realistic value for hunting or home defense. Once the compromises were made, the NRA and other gun lobbyists continued to come up with new reasons to vote against it, and the whole thing failed. So from where I’m sitting, I’m not seeing a lot of willingness to actually come to a compromise to address the very obvious problems in the status quo.

I’m just seeing politicians who are bought out by lobbyists to say “no” to anything that crosses their desk, no matter how compromised and reasonable. Which in turn leads to an inability to govern the issue, which leads to radicals gaining influence and coming up with ways to subvert the process. You don’t want that, I don’t want that, nobody should want that. Enough is enough with allowing the dumbest and most corrupt people in the room to dominate the process.

 

[MinJaBen]

Uninformed opinion: I've always thought there's a "breaking the seal" element (Sandy Hook) to all of this as well. Society is way more depressed and edgy than it was 10-15 years ago which doesn't help, but I think there's also an element of this being the new thing to do for people who are depressed and sick. The unthinkable isn't unthinkable anymore, basically, so now everyone who wants to be an edgelord to the end has their thing. You see that in the journals of this latest one - "suicide wouldn't be enough of a statement" or whatever.

I've always stayed away from the conversation because frankly I don't know how to fix it. I've just always had a constant nagging that tells me the "it's just the guns" crowd is missing a big side of it.

I have often thought how the end of the 20th century to the present in the US reminds me of the fall of the Roman Republic. Both appear to be republics struggling to hold off imperial tendencies of the uber rich, both fetishizing the legions/military, and both turning to blood sport (gladiators/football culture) to appease a growing dissatisfaction among the working classes. The slowly ebbing "gentile" (I know I am speak with white privilege here as nothing was very gentile for a lot of the population) America seems to be being replaced with a more edgy and violent America in every facet of society: employers moving away from taking care of their employees to only taking care of the ledgers, violence in most forms of entertainment, extreme polarization in politics, etc. I think when the depressed and sick turn to the gun it shouldn't surprise us.

I wonder when our Rubicon moment will be, if it hasn't already happened.

 

[AD Skinner]

I didn’t need a Dr Scholl to tell me standing on something soft would be comfortable, I would’ve bought that from a Mr Scholl

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I have often thought how the end of the 20th century to the present in the US reminds me of the fall of the Roman Republic. Both appear to be republics struggling to hold off imperial tendencies of the uber rich, both fetishizing the legions/military, and both turning to blood sport (gladiators/football culture) to appease a growing dissatisfaction among the working classes. The slowly ebbing "gentile" (I know I am speak with white privilege here as nothing was very gentile for a lot of the population) America seems to be being replaced with a more edgy and violent America in every facet of society: employers moving away from taking care of their employees to only taking care of the ledgers, violence in most forms of entertainment, extreme polarization in politics, etc. I think when the depressed and sick turn to the gun it shouldn't surprise us.

I wonder when our Rubicon moment will be, if it hasn't already happened.

You and me both.

 

[Svechhammer]

I have often thought how the end of the 20th century to the present in the US reminds me of the fall of the Roman Republic. Both appear to be republics struggling to hold off imperial tendencies of the uber rich, both fetishizing the legions/military, and both turning to blood sport (gladiators/football culture) to appease a growing dissatisfaction among the working classes. The slowly ebbing "gentile" (I know I am speak with white privilege here as nothing was very gentile for a lot of the population) America seems to be being replaced with a more edgy and violent America in every facet of society: employers moving away from taking care of their employees to only taking care of the ledgers, violence in most forms of entertainment, extreme polarization in politics, etc. I think when the depressed and sick turn to the gun it shouldn't surprise us.

I wonder when our Rubicon moment will be, if it hasn't already happened.

Yep

And this is where I say its only a matter of time before the ticking time bomb goes off and its stops being the schools that get shot up by the mentally unstable but more and more corporate HQs and executives. What happened with the UHC CEO feels like a tipping point, one that we look back on 5 years from now and realize that's when things changed.

And given the panic going on around corpo executive NY, the aristocracy knows it.

 

[tarheelhockey]

You realize no gun can ship from an FFL to a non FFL holder right? (unless it's a repair or something of that nature where the receiver is already the owner of the firearm, or the CMP, who runs their own NICS) And that the CC has to match the name on the 4473 otherwise it's a straw purchase? How do I know? I used to be a partner in a dealer.

They literally can't send out a firearm where the trasnferee doesn't match the buyer.

That works like -
CC - John Doe
Shipping address - John Doe, C/O ABC firearms dealer (FFL #)

When the FFL receives the firearm, it can only be transferred to John Doe. Otherwise it's a straw. They dont ship the gun period. And the "criminal" can't pick up the gun because there has to be a 4473 filled out at the receiving FFL. The name and address on the 4473 have to match the name and address on the BOS from the shipping dealer, and the unit is logged into the receiving dealer's bound book.

So no. Someone calling didn't save a crime. The process and the laws in place did. Cause you know. We have laws on the books already.

No one takes a gun off an FFL's bound book without a 4473 on file, unless its a dealer to dealer transfer, bound book to bound book.

I can only assume that the sort of person who commits identity theft to buy weapons had some sort of plan to get around those elements of the process. I can’t say how exactly they were attempting to get around those checks. All I know is it was posed to me by the shop lady on the phone as “before we ship this I just want to confirm you made this order”.

I hope you’re right and that they would have failed. I hope. The point of the anecdote was simply to say, there are people out there actively subverting the system in order to get their hands on guns for any number of purposes. The more robust the verification system, the fewer armed criminals we have running around. That should be SUPER easy to agree with, especially for law-abiding gun owners who have nothing to lose by verifying that they’re not bad guys.

Also to your graph? There's a saying amongst people like me. Barack Obama was the best gun salesman in history. I can attest to that. The man NEVER shut up about bans. Notice how in the Trump years sales go down, then back up dramatically in 2020? That's people buying guns before they are banned because of all the threats. The jump from 2013 on is the post sandy hook effect. Anyone in my community remembers that.

Last ETA - The "misc firearms" jump from 2013 on is another issue, mostly based on Obama's ATF attempting to clamp down on certain things, the form 2 market, AOW market, and shotguns that are short barreled not being a shotgun or pistol

In other words, people get the shit scared out of them by spooky tales of “gun grabbers” kicking down their doors, so they go buy up an armory and get ready for the Gunpocalypse, then nothing happens.

Well, nothing happens until those guns get burglarized, or sold to the wrong person, or snuck out of the house by their kids. Then something really bad happens, but there’s always a reason to do exactly nothing about it.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

In other words, people get the shit scared out of them by spooky tales of “gun grabbers” kicking down their doors, so they go buy up an armory and get ready for the Gunpocalypse, then nothing happens.

Well, nothing happens until those guns get burglarized, or sold to the wrong person, or snuck out of the house by their kids. Then something really bad happens, but there’s always a reason to do exactly nothing about it.

And surely that kind of messaging wouldn’t be used to manipulate potential gun owners into “stocking up”, thus producing more profit for the ones sending the message.