OT: Hurricanes Lounge XLV: Y2K Twenty-Four Years Later

Finlandia WOAT

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She lost because there's a worldwide backlash against incumbent parties, regardless of their political alignment (see: the Tories getting absolutely smashed by Labour in the UK) which is mostly the result of worldwide inflation post COIVD pandemic. The rightward shift in the US was everywhere, however, Harris did better in battleground states where she actively campaigned, which signals to me she was a fine enough candidate running against too strong a headwind.

I think "why did Gen Z males shift 30 points right" is absolutely something that should be discussed, at the same time any election analysis that doesn't point out a very obvious global trend isn't complete, imo.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
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Regardless of political party, I really hope the government doesn't get rid of the CHIPs act. It's a national security issue.

The US no longer has the leading edge technology, the IP or knowhow for leading edge semi-conductor technology. That exists with 2 companies, TSMC (Taiwan) and Samsung in Korea. We didn't lose this because of anything Obama or Trump or Biden did, we lost this technology edge due to corporate America. Companies like Intel, AMD and IBM that had the lead in semi-conductor technology saw that "fab less" companies, like Nvidia, Xilinx, Qualcomm, etc.. were making money hand over fist without having to invest the billions for semi-conductor fabrication. TSMC was more than happy to fill that void. It's easy for political candidates to say "we'll bring it back to the US", but that isn't simple. Developing the know-how and manufacturing capability for semi-conductors is not a short term endeavor. It's a LONG TERM thing and China and TSMC are spending more than we are.

This didn't happen overnight, it happened over 20+ years. China will soon be on par with Taiwan (or will take them over) and Korea. The US needs to at least be on par in terms of semi-conductor technology.
 

Negan4Coach

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Aug 31, 2017
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So give an example then
So, rather than just randomly pull an example that literally exist everywhere- let me give you a more constructive example- the playbook that has been deployed against the public by the administration for the past 4 years that worked until it didn't- and then it just REALLY pissed people off, as it was deployed on literally everything:

IMG_2523.jpeg



I mean, Tim Walz seems like a guy that loves his family deeply, is beloved by his students/student athletes, and is confident enough in his masculinity to not to be concerned about what others may say about him.

I'm sure the circles you've been encapsulated in have painted a very different picture.
Look, I'm just trying to give you our perspective here. You guys can learn, or you can do the Principal Skinner meme.

I mean, I thought Vance was fake because he tried to put forth the story about a drug-addicted mother, ruined by immigrants coming into the county, and he’s just a blue collar, good old boy rising through the ranks due to the American dream.

The truth is that his mother was addicted to drugs, but they weren’t street drugs. She was constantly stealing drugs from the pharmacy that she worked at. Immigrants had nothing to do with it. And the “blue collar, good old boy” he portrayed was a false personality. After graduating high school, he served in the military as a journalist, then went to Yale, graduated and worked as a corporate lawyer. Then as a venture capitalist before becoming a US Senator. Apparently the most manual labor he’s done in his life is working at a grocery store at 17.

But again, this would require people to research their candidates and not simply take what they say at face value.

So I wasn't pleased with him being picked. I wanted Tulsi. But his Sunday morning talk shows and the debate performance impressed me, ngl.

But the big L to be taken here is the whole narrative that he was "weird". "Fake", sure. But the playbook was "weird". From a party that literally champions being weird so hard that they deliberately appointed a menagerie of freaks to high level positions in the government and to cavort around the White House. Yet we were supposed to believe a bland white guy in a suit from Ohio was "weird"

Once again, just trying to give some perspective here, for educational purposes.
 
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Blueline Bomber

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Look, I'm just trying to give you our perspective here. You guys can learn, or you can do the Principal Skinner meme.

And I’m trying to do the same, but you’re very set in your ways. I understand you’re very into the conspiratorial side of…basically everything, but as others pointed out earlier, sometimes it’s just confirmation bias, not a conspiracy.

The left painted Walz as “American’s Dad”, a down to earth, long-serving veteran, former football coach that was willing to “sling mud” to get his political message across.
The right painted Walz as a cowardly vet that fled at first hint of combat and was obsessed with getting kids transitioned into opposite genders. And somehow a Communist because of a fling he had with an Asian woman 20+ years ago.

Odds are good that neither one of those are the truth. As I showed earlier, the attacks against his military career is demonstratively false. He had filed paperwork to run for Congress almost a year before his unit received deployment orders, and retired completely a month before they even got a hint that they MIGHT be deployed within the next 2 years.
So I wasn't pleased with him being picked. I wanted Tulsi. But his Sunday morning talk shows and the debate performance impressed me, ngl.

But the big L to be taken here is the whole narrative that he was "weird". "Fake", sure. But the playbook was "weird". From a party that literally champions being weird so hard that they deliberately appointed a menagerie of freaks to high level positions in the government and to cavort around the White House. Yet we were supposed to believe a bland white guy in a suit from Ohio was "weird"

Once again, just trying to give some perspective here, for educational purposes.

And again, for educational purposes, here’s a few reasons why Vance was labeled as “weird.”

- He was OBSESSED with women having children. I’ve never seen a person have so many quotes about how a woman’s worth is only for having kids. He called childless women “disturbing”, “deranged” and “sociopathic.” He believed the votes of parents with children should count more. He said “Universal day care is a class war against normal people”, implying that if a woman isn’t a stay-at-home mom, she’s not “normal.” There were so many of these quotes coming out, Trump (allegedly) asked his team how Vance was vetted.

- I’m sure you saw his disastrous trip to the donut shot in Georgia. If not, here you go:



That entire interaction was Weird with a capital “W”. Now, obviously, it’s a campaign stop fluff piece that was supposed to make him “relatable.” And it didn’t work out as planned for a number of reasons. I’m assuming his team didn’t check with the shop before doing it, since almost immediately, the employees talk about not wanting to be on camera. But even if it’s off to a bad start, it’s not that hard to fake a good interaction. Order a donut, chat it up with the staff, talk about how good the food is, maybe throw in a fake story about going to a donut shop when you were younger, it’s basic stuff. Vance couldn’t make it past step 1. He couldn’t order a donut, his idea of chatting with the staff was asking a stilted question and responding with “good”, no matter what the answer, it was very weird.
 

Svechhammer

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Just had this article sent to me, and it very well outlined what I've been saying about how the Democrats have sabotaged themselves by leaning into identity politics the last decade or more.


Also, one thing this article pointed out...

Voters’ response was definitive. According to a New York Times analysis, “Of the counties with nearly complete results, more than 90 percent shifted in favor of former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential election.” That is to say, Trump improved with every single racial group across the country except one. He performed slightly better with Black voters overall (13 percent voted for him this time, according to exit polls, compared with 12 percent in 2020), and significantly better with everyone else—particularly Latinos, 46 percent of whom gave him their vote. He received an outright majority of ballots from voters marking the “other” box—a first for Republicans—and his party reclaimed the Senate and looks poised to hold on to the House. All told, the only racial group among whom Trump lost any support at all turned out to be white people, whose support for him dropped by a percentage point.

Remember this when you see liberal pundits on TV and socials continually blame white people for being so racist on why Trump won. White people are the only demographic who voted more Democrat in 2024 than 2020.
 

NotOpie

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What's just as bad is one side thinking the other side is living in an echo chamber while ignoring the echo chamber they are living in. Both sides do it.
For any of you on Twitter, I strongly recommend you follow pundits of both political persuasion. It is very illuminating and helps put cracks in the echo chamber. Getting challenged in your beliefs and thought processes is one of the most valuable learning experiences that I can think of.
The problem is that people in charge of the Democratic party don't know how to change course. Word out of today is that they're talking about how they didn't work hard enough to entice the centrist/leaning right voter. When they lost 13 million voters that voted for Biden between now and 2020. They're aiming for a small portion of voters while alienating their base.
What people forget is that there were likely just as many conservative, moderately conservative Republican voters that voted for Biden rather than vote for Trump.
The policy they focused on was abortion rights, a topic that affects men almost as much as women.
Whomever coached Kamala on this should never work in politics again. Seriously, where else were the pro-choice voters going to go? Certainly never to Trump. It was just a bad tactical decision. Yes, you do run a few ads around this, but focus more on the economy. Focus on fighting inflation. Focus on getting things done. And, for goodness sake, focus normalcy vs. chaos. She was badly served by Biden staying in for so long, for being shackled to Biden's policies (despite all evidence pointing to an improving economy), and by essentially having to work with Biden's reelection team given the timing.

There are very few single issue voters out there; most pick those 2 or 3 things that matter. Top 3 issues: Inflation, immigration, jobs (according to Statista).

Lastly, and this is my personal observation, trying to link abortion rights to fathers when considering their daughters just seems like a losing proposition. No father that I know want to think about their daughters getting pregnant and getting an abortion....for any reason. Call me naive, but painting that picture for me is just plain "icky".
Tim Walz was GREAT at that. He came out swinging, used football analogies, car talk, and wasn't afraid to "go low" to emphasize his point. Then like a week later, he was completely neutered by the campaign advisors. Because they completely missed WHO Walz was really talking to
I'm sorry, as a disaffected moderate who really didn't have much of a dog in this fight, Tim Walz was a terrible pick politically and a slightly worse candidate. Minnesota was George Floyd and the upheaval surrounding that entire incident. The pictures of MN cities buring were exceedingly powerful and likely coercive. Walz's record as an exceedingly liberal governor was a problem for him, While the media painted him as America's dad, as the guy who got free school lunches for all children, his record was one that actually raised taxes on the middle-class and he proposed even more.

Despite the media and the DNC praising Walz's down home nature, he ultimately came off as bland and ineffectual. The decision to pick Walz as a running mate likely weighed on Harris's campaign as many people viewed that pick as an early mistake of judgement, All one had to do was contrast Shapiro on the stump with Walz. It's not even close. One is gifted, one is a minor-leaguer.

Regardless of political party, I really hope the government doesn't get rid of the CHIPs act. It's a national security issue.
I'm with you on that @Boom Boom Apathy . And I think it will survive as that type of industrial policy essentially does via subsidies and loan guarantees what Trump is hoping the tariffs will do - bring manufacturing back to the US. My guess is it survives at its core, but the "add on" riders get eliminated if possible.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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I'm with you on that @Boom Boom Apathy . And I think it will survive as that type of industrial policy essentially does via subsidies and loan guarantees what Trump is hoping the tariffs will do - bring manufacturing back to the US. My guess is it survives at its core, but the "add on" riders get eliminated if possible.
Yep. TSMC and Samsung have already begun building FABs in the US and the CHIPS act was a driver. TSMC also realizes that having all of their eggs in 1 basket, a basket that China believes they own, is another driver.

TSMC's first Arizona fab is scheduled to open next year and a 2nd fab is in the works for 2028 with leading edge technology. Samsung has invested almost $20B to put fabrication capability in Texas and with help from the CHIPS act, will invest another $20B.

While I know some will frown on foreign companies getting loans/subsides to do this, it is crucial to regain the know-how and a skill base in the US for the future.
 

Svechhammer

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Lastly, and this is my personal observation, trying to link abortion rights to fathers when considering their daughters just seems like a losing proposition. No father that I know want to think about their daughters getting pregnant and getting an abortion....for any reason. Call me naive, but painting that picture for me is just plain "icky".
I mean if they really wanted to send a message home about what a ban on abortion would mean, all they had to do was explain how all these guys who are now celebrating 'your body my choice' would now be paying child support payments and likely legally required to take care of those children because their sexual conquests can't get an abortion anymore.

But no, as always the Dems completely ignored any impact that it would have to anyone not a woman, and turned it into an man vs woman thing than something that impacts us all.
 
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Blueline Bomber

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There are very few single issue voters out there; most pick those 2 or 3 things that matter. Top 3 issues: Inflation, immigration, jobs (according to Statista).

And yet if you ask any of those voters, what they believe often doesn’t match with reality.

- Inflation has declined over the past year, and it’s currently at around historic averages.
- The stock market is at or near all-time highs
- Over the last few months, unauthorized border crossings are at or near the lowest level in the last few years

And while they vote for the guy who says the right things involving those topics, they fail to take into account the ramifications of actually doing the things he promises. Again, if you’re unhappy with how expensive everything is, deporting cheap labor and adding tariffs is basically demanding the prices rise higher, not lower.

Lastly, and this is my personal observation, trying to link abortion rights to fathers when considering their daughters just seems like a losing proposition. No father that I know want to think about their daughters getting pregnant and getting an abortion....for any reason. Call me naive, but painting that picture for me is just plain "icky".

No one wants to think about it until it happens to them. Take the story of a couple weeks ago, about a Texas mother who drove to three different hospitals within 12 hours because her pregnant daughter was having health problems. The first hospital said she had a strep throat, but wouldn’t investigate the abdominal cramps. The second hospital diagnosed her with sepsis, but dismissed her from the hospital because “she and her six month fetus were fine.” The third hospital ordered two ultrasounds to “confirm fetal demise” before beginning to treat her, but by that point, it was already too late. Her organs began failing and she died. Why the hesitation to treat her? Because under Texas’s abortion ban, any treatment that ends the heartbeat of the fetus falls under that ban. So even if the doctors do everything right, but the fetus dies due to circumstances outside of their control, they can still face legal repercussions.


And that’s the crux of it. A proposed ban isn’t going to stop people from having sex. It’s not going to stop teenagers from doing what they’ve ALWAYS done. It’s not going to stop the occasional broken condom or ineffective pill. It’s just going to make it a lot more difficult to handle the consequences of those actions.

Abortions are still going to happen. It’ll just go back to back-alley treatments, drinking toxic chemicals or “accidentally” falling, all of which are more dangerous than going to a clinic and getting it handled by people who know what they’re doing.

I mean if they really wanted to send a message home about what a ban on abortion would mean, all they had to do was explain how all these guys who are now celebrating 'your body my choice' would now be paying child support payments and likely legally required to take care of those children because their sexual conquests can't get an abortion anymore.

But no, as always the Dems completely ignored any impact that it would have to anyone not a woman, and turned it into an man vs woman thing than something that impacts us all.

The post you’re responding to literally said they don’t want to think about their daughter getting an abortion because it was “icky”. That’s what happened when they tried to include the male point of view on the subject.
 

Svechhammer

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The post you’re responding to literally said they don’t want to think about their daughter getting an abortion because it was “icky”. That’s what happened when they tried to include the male point of view on the subject.

And I'm saying their failed by trying to appeal to them as parents. They shoud have gone after then by saying their mistresses and girlfriends who they are only using for a fling would be forced to term, tying them together forever. Or go after them for that crazy ex you want nothing to do with but you're now forced to pay her money the rest of your life because she got pregnant and cannot get an abortion. Hit them with the same oh shit feelings that the movie Gone Girl did.
 
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Blueline Bomber

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And I'm saying their failed by trying to appeal to them as parents. They shoud have gone after then by saying their mistresses and girlfriends who they are only using for a fling would be forced to term, tying them together forever. Or go after them for that crazy ex you want nothing to do with but you're now forced to pay her money the rest of your life because she got pregnant and cannot get an abortion. Hit them with the same oh shit feelings that the movie Gone Girl did.

And then they would have been criticized for claiming that all white men are cheaters or deadbeat dads.

Like, I get it. It's a topic that no one wants to discuss. But it's a reality of society, and it's not going to go away. Voting against the people who are trying to show the consequences of ignoring it just because it's tough to think about doesn't do any good
 
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