OT: Hurricanes Lounge XL. 99 Luftballons

[MinJaBen]

I think you're underselling the investment not just of capital but also just of inertia it's gonna take to adopt this stuff at a larger, corporate level. It could be rapid changes... we're also dealing with a brand new thing that corporations weren't planning on doing this year. RPA as an accelerator has by and large been a failure. This is like RPA 8.0, but it's still got a lot of limitations and companies won't let the unknown of those limitations impact their business. We're going to see a lot of internal POCs, a lot of dipping the toe in the water... not a lot that is customer-facing for quite awhile and not a lot that impact critical internal systems either. It'll start by just being an accelerator. Help your dev write a line of code that's stumping them. An optional content management/search functionality to help you find that one document on your company's intranet that you just can't find. Plug-ins to Office 365 to accelerate tasks that you're still very much in control of. There won't be this big cutover overnight.

I think there will be lots of areas where it will be adopted very rapidly. Look at paralegals, as a possible example. Right now they spend a lot of time looking up information in legal texts and then writing summaries for the lawyers that ask for them. Maybe a law firm has one paralegal per lawyer, so a large law firm needs a dozen or so of them, maybe? Well, they've already shown that these GPTs and LLMs can pass a bar exam 90% of the time. And it takes seconds to scan the legal texts and create a written summary of information. So now a firm with a dozen paralegals can have two or none depending on what the lawyers are willing to do and pay for.

Same with coding. These GPTs and LLMs will do a lot of the grunt work that is being done by well paid programers. And while I have seen no data on this, I bet they are much better at error testing than humans as well. Plus, if you don't need nearly as many people, you don't need nearly as many janitorial staff, human resources, etc. The cascade of the loss of the white collar workers will hit supporting blue collar work as well.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I think there will be lots of areas where it will be adopted very rapidly. Look at paralegals, as a possible example. Right now they spend a lot of time looking up information in legal texts and then writing summaries for the lawyers that ask for them. Maybe a law firm has one paralegal per lawyer, so a large law firm needs a dozen or so of them, maybe? Well, they've already shown that these GPTs and LLMs can pass a bar exam 90% of the time. And it takes seconds to scan the legal texts and create a written summary of information. So now a firm with a dozen paralegals can have two or none depending on what the lawyers are willing to do and pay for.

Same with coding. These GPTs and LLMs will do a lot of the grunt work that is being done by well paid programers. And while I have seen no data on this, I bet they are much better at error testing than humans as well. Plus, if you don't need nearly as many people, you don't need nearly as many janitorial staff, human resources, etc. The cascade of the loss of the white collar workers will hit supporting blue collar work as well.

Those are both uses cases, agreed. Certainly not arguing that those things aren’t going to happen. I think where we’re disagreeing is on velocity of adoption. Whenever these things come out we usually spend the first 6-12 months just talking amongst ourselves about how much of a game changer it is while not really doing anything. IT executives who already have their next 8 quarters of plans laid out might get around to putting it in the roadmap at some point (or appoint one person to go investigate and try to champion it across an org). The current day-to-day of those paralegals are safe until law firms start actually employing this stuff (traditionally not an industry known for being bleeding edge adopters of technology). Everyone’s going to dip in slowly.

As far as dev work is concerned… I don’t think we’re going to see software devs on the streets at all. Most companies I’m aware of have backlogs they’ll never finish when it comes to new features/stories, entire projects/applications they’d like to spin up, etc. It’ll help them to work faster. I doubt in one big bang it removes swaths of developers overnight.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

This stuff is wayyyyyy beyond my skill set. The other day, I wanted to open something from my work gmail account (someone had set it up on my phone, and that’s where Ive always used it) on a PC - and I had to ask a few people what .com to go to, to find that.

I can, however, go five-hole on anyone.

 

[MinJaBen]

I can, however, go five-hole on anyone.

The world is just a Cane's goalie to you, isn't it?

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Those are both uses cases, agreed. Certainly not arguing that those things aren’t going to happen. I think where we’re disagreeing is on velocity of adoption. Whenever these things come out we usually spend the first 6-12 months just talking amongst ourselves about how much of a game changer it is while not really doing anything. IT executives who already have their next 8 quarters of plans laid out might get around to putting it in the roadmap at some point (or appoint one person to go investigate and try to champion it across an org). The current day-to-day of those paralegals are safe until law firms start actually employing this stuff (traditionally not an industry known for being bleeding edge adopters of technology). Everyone’s going to dip in slowly.

As far as dev work is concerned… I don’t think we’re going to see software devs on the streets at all. Most companies I’m aware of have backlogs they’ll never finish when it comes to new features/stories, entire projects/applications they’d like to spin up, etc. It’ll help them to work faster. I doubt in one big bang it removes swaths of developers overnight.

The need for software development is endless, and when ChatGPT spits out something that breaks a customer because the requirements weren't clear or correct, you had better be damned sure that you've got good devs to go figure out what happened.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

The need for software development is endless, and when ChatGPT spits out something that breaks a customer because the requirements weren't clear or correct, you had better be damned sure that you've got good devs to go figure out what happened.

I could even see some turning into GPT specialists themselves. “Hmm, see, it’s finicky, this instance hates when you ask with an adverb, that’s why it gave you that for loop instead of a for each loop” or whatever.

I think it’ll be a long, long time before anything goes GPT -> production without human intervention. The acceleration of just having a functional code base as a starting point that devs can then go modify/tweak will be enough to get everyone excited.

 

[DaveG]

The need for software development is endless, and when ChatGPT spits out something that breaks a customer because the requirements weren't clear or correct, you had better be damned sure that you've got good devs to go figure out what happened.

yep, I think if there are any changes to software development that ChatGPT and the like could bring, it's that in most cases the coders are going to be more testing-side than they already are. You'll still need people that know what they're doing simply to be able to figure out and fix it when something doesn't go right, which IS going to happen. Frequently.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

yep, I think if there are any changes to software development that ChatGPT and the like could bring, it's that in most cases the coders are going to be more testing-side than they already are. You'll still need people that know what they're doing simply to be able to figure out and fix it when something doesn't go right, which IS going to happen. Frequently.

Honestly, if this pushes everybody to test driven development, that alone will dramatically improve the discipline as a whole.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Seriously, though, I think that non-programmers don't really understand the complexity of writing and maintaining code to perform non-trivial tasks, and how deeply a person needs to understand software development to make ChatGPT do the right thing.

Here's a great example of an expert coder working with ChatGPT to write useful Python code:

How to code Python with ChatGPT

Can ChatGPT help you develop software in Python? Let us ask ChatGPT to write code to query AWS Athena to test if and how we can do it step-by-step.

www.bolddata.org

If you don't understand everything that this developer is doing to make ChatGPT produce useful code, then you probably can't make ChatGPT produce useful code yourself.

 

[Negan4Coach]

IDK what is going to happen with jobs- but you can kiss any remaining freedom goodbye, online or otherwise, the first time an AI creates a mass casualty incident.

AP news: "Chaos today as footage of Pope Francis flushing a Koran down a golden toilet at the Vatican sent shockwaves through the Muslim word. Thousands have died in the carnage throughout middle eastern capitals and the Vatican embassy in London has been overrun by Pakistani militants"

or

"Another episode of so called Blue on Blue fighting took place on the outskirts of Austin Texas today as a rogue Chat GPT AI convinced municipal police through several means of communication that gender clinics were about to be raided by Proud Boys wearing fake Texas Ranger uniforms, who deployed to defend them. In turn, the same AI convinced Texas Rangers that left wing activists were about to conduct covert surgeries on gender non-conforming children, and came in to serve arrest warrants. In the ensuing firefight 25 officers were killed, another 40 wounded"

And that's just for starters.

 

[Negan4Coach]

Seriously, though, I think that non-programmers don't really understand the complexity of writing and maintaining code to perform non-trivial tasks, and how deeply a person needs to understand software development to make ChatGPT do the right thing.

Here's a great example of an expert coder working with ChatGPT to write useful Python code:

How to code Python with ChatGPT

Can ChatGPT help you develop software in Python? Let us ask ChatGPT to write code to query AWS Athena to test if and how we can do it step-by-step.

www.bolddata.org

If you don't understand everything that this developer is doing to make ChatGPT produce useful code, then you probably can't make ChatGPT produce useful code yourself.

Yeah I mean that's why Watson was such a smoke and mirrors science project for us. It was useless unless it has throngs of dour faced dudes from GBS writing annotators for it constantly.

I don't think this stuff will become self aware- but it can be easily weaponized or otherwise abused. It won't be an easy lift, to be sure.

 

[ndp]

I’ve got a question for any of our more tech savvy posters.

I’m been looking to upgrade my old as hills desktop. Nephew has been dying to get a 3d printer and his folks won’t foot the bill so I’m going to get one that stays at my place. And eventually add a CNC router/carver for myself.

@Boom Boom Apathy i would love to hear your thoughts on the CNC options.

What model do you have?

How do you like it?

Would you look at different, or upgraded models?

Back to the desktop, I need something that can run Fusion 360 and similar for the nephew to play on, and teach me how to use.

And I figure might as well build something that can handle a little gaming while I’m at it.

Should I

A. Go full budget, utilizing the killer deals available right now on last generation AM4 or Intel equivalent CPU’s Or…

B. Bite the bullet and pony up for the latest AM5/LGA 1700?

A buddy of mine’s son is a hardcore PC gamer and he’s got a lightly used 6700 xt GPU he’s willing to sell me for around $250. Leaves me with about $500-700ish for everything except case, OS and peripherals.

 

[tarheelhockey]

"Another episode of so called Blue on Blue fighting took place on the outskirts of Austin Texas today as a rogue Chat GPT AI convinced municipal police through several means of communication that gender clinics were about to be raided by Proud Boys wearing fake Texas Ranger uniforms, who deployed to defend them. In turn, the same AI convinced Texas Rangers that left wing activists were about to conduct covert surgeries on gender non-conforming children, and came in to serve arrest warrants. In the ensuing firefight 25 officers were killed, another 40 wounded"

They should've known better than to hook ChatGPT up to Reddit.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

@Boom Boom Apathy i would love to hear your thoughts on the CNC options.

What model do you have?

How do you like it?

Would you look at different, or upgraded models?

I went with a Shapeoko 4 XXL. I really like it a lot, but I've only done 2D/2D+ work so far, not true 3D. The machine is very well built and the customer support is fantastic. I plan on buying software (probably Vcarve) to get into some 3D stuff in the near future. As far as upgrades, if you plan on requiring more precision, then the "pro" might be a better offering. A friend of my builds guitars and he felt he needed the pro for that.

As far as different models, I'd look closely at Onefinity as well. I went with Shapeoko because (a) they had good reviews. (b) I new someone who had one so could get a first hand look at one and (c) they had a great black-friday sale on it.

I have zero regrets and it's done everything I've every wanted it to do so far, but the Onefinity gets great reviews as well and looks like a great machine.

I don't have the patience to do a lot of work on Fusion and other CAD/CAM/graphic software, thankfully one of my kids is good at stuff like that so I'll have him create stuff for me then I import it into the Shapeoko software.

 

[Lempo]

An ear monitor malfunction happens during the anthems at the England - Italy soccer game in Milan, giving the Italian singer Ellynora an Enrico Pallazzo experience.

 

[LakeLivin]

An ear monitor malfunction happens during the anthems at the England - Italy soccer game in Milan, giving the Italian singer Ellynora an Enrico Pallazzo experience.

I dunno . . . I think I'd call Kyle's tweet and raise him one Roseanne Barr.

 

[Lempo]

Florida Man goes full Simpsons:

https://eu.tallahassee.com/story/news/education/2023/03/23/tallahassee-classical-principal-out-after-complaints-about-david-statue-lesson/70039104007/

Tallahassee principal ousted after complaints about Michelangelo's 'David' in art lesson

Tallahassee Classical, a Hillsdale College curriculum school, is required to teach about Renaissance art in sixth grade.

But three parents complained that the lesson’s content, which included learning about Michelangelo’s sculpture “David” and the "Creation of Adam" fresco painting and Boticelli's "Birth of Venus," upset their children.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Was it the nudity that upset their children, or learning about Renaissance art that upset the children?

Because I imagine there aren't many sixth graders that are interested in a deep dive into the art of that era.

 

[MinJaBen]

Was it the nudity that upset their children, or learning about Renaissance art that upset the children?

Because I imagine there aren't many sixth graders that are interested in a deep dive into the art of that era.

Was it the children that were really upset? Or did they come home snickering and a bunch of culture warriors moms with too much time and too few brain cells became upset?

 

[Lempo]

Was it the nudity that upset their children, or learning about Renaissance art that upset the children?

Because I imagine there aren't many sixth graders that are interested in a deep dive into the art of that era.

I mean, how is it even possible to fail in teaching this stuff.

1. "Your task is to find out, in what fashion is the personality of a given Ninja Turtle reflected in the works of their corresponding Renaissance artist."

2. Receive sixth grader treatises on the flamboyancy of Michaelangelo's art.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I think education, as an idea, has run its course. Let's just put children in work camps until they're 14, and then indentured servitude to the highest bidding corporation.

 

[ndp]

Was it the children that were really upset? Or did they come home snickering and a bunch of culture warriors moms with too much time and too few brain cells became upset?

An Interview With the School Board Chair Who Forced Out a Principal After Michelangelo’s David Was Shown in Class

"Well, we’re Florida, OK?"

slate.com

Read at your own risk. This interview should come with side effects warning.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think education, as an idea, has run its course. Let's just put children in work camps until they're 14, and then indentured servitude to the highest bidding corporation.

So just like the NHL? Well, other than the "paid millions" part.

 

[Svechhammer]

 

[Lempo]

I wish our mascot didn't participate in political discussion.