OT: Hurricanes Lounge XL. 99 Luftballons

[Boom Boom Apathy]

f*** the Chinese. Insufferably rude pushy communists, and sooner or later, we're going to tangle with them. Best hope we don't have a sock puppet or potato in office when we do.

We better be ready for the economic (and defense technology) ramifications. Like it or not over the past 40 years, we have become 100% reliant on Chinese / Taiwanese / Hong Kong products. And it's not just "cheap stuff". All the the most advanced semi-conductors come out of Taiwan. We tangle with China and that supply is shut off instantly, and we don't have the capability / know how to create it in the US any longer. Intel fell behind, IBM got out of the business, AMD's most advanced technology is via TSMC in Taiwan. Vast numbers of US companies have moved high tech assembly operations to China, which would cut that flow off. Anywhere between 65-85% of rare earth metals, required in high tech, come from China. Not to mention virtually all goods that we as regular consumer use. Our economy would tank in a heartbeat.

I'm not defending China, just stating the realities that we, as a country would be crippled if we tangle with them. Of course, they would also take a hit as we are the biggest consumer. That's probably the best news. Our two countries have a symbiotic relationship. We need them for all the goods, they need us to buy the goods.

 

[LakeLivin]

No this is a major W for China. Weather balloon, spy balloon, kite, paper airplane… all of that is nebulous. The take away here is China put an object in our air space that traversed the enter width of the country testing our response, anticipating the Americans wouldn’t do shit about it and that’s what happened.

No offense surf, but making a determination like that with the very limited knowledge we have seems kind of . . . presumptuous?

NORAD probably detected the balloon somewhere over the Bering sea. And yet we let it cross the US collecting information because . . . why?

When talking high level intelligence I've got to believe there are levels at play that we have no clue about. Think about a case where they identify a spy in the works but instead of busting him(her) they let him operate in order to gain very valuable info about the other sides practices and capabilities, or even to plant disinformation.

Kind of reminds me of how we criticize a move the Borg makes and later realize it turned out well because they had a lot more info than we did and that they were playing chess while we were thinking checkers.

I'm not saying I know the reasons the luftballon played out like it did, but I doubt that a) we let it cross the US collecting and disseminating info, or b) we didn't shoot it down earlier just because of feckless leadership.

edit: no way I think it just accidentally floated off course, or that the generals wouldn't follow presidential orders.

 

[hockeynjune]

No offense surf, but making a determination like that with the very limited knowledge we have seems kind of . . . presumptuous?

NORAD probably detected the balloon somewhere over the Bering sea. And yet we let it cross the US collecting information because . . . why?

When talking high level intelligence I've got to believe there are levels at play that we have no clue about. Think about a case where they identify a spy in the works but instead of busting him(her) they let him operate in order to gain very valuable info about the other sides practices and capabilities, or even to plant disinformation.

Kind of reminds me of how we criticize a move the Borg makes and later realize it turned out well because they had a lot more info than we did and that they were playing chess while we were thinking checkers.

I'm not saying I know the reasons the luftballon played out like it did, but I doubt that a) we let it cross the US collecting and disseminating info, or b) we didn't shoot it down earlier just because of feckless leadership.

edit: no way I think it just accidentally floated off course, or that the generals wouldn't follow presidential orders.

Post of the day. Well said sir.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm not saying I know the reasons the luftballon played out like it did, but I doubt that a) we let it cross the US collecting and disseminating info, or b) we didn't shoot it down earlier just because of feckless leadership.

edit: no way I think it just accidentally floated off course, or that the generals wouldn't follow presidential orders.

It's obvious though what happened. The Chinese are doing reconnaissance to find out how many homes have Gas cooktops so that when they are outlawed, they'll know where to spend their marking dollars on electric cooktops.

 

[SoupNazi]

They've been trying to reach us about our car's extended warranty.

This is the correct answer.

 

[surfzone365]

No offense surf, but making a determination like that with the very limited knowledge we have seems kind of . . . presumptuous?

NORAD probably detected the balloon somewhere over the Bering sea. And yet we let it cross the US collecting information because . . . why?

When talking high level intelligence I've got to believe there are levels at play that we have no clue about. Think about a case where they identify a spy in the works but instead of busting him(her) they let him operate in order to gain very valuable info about the other sides practices and capabilities, or even to plant disinformation.

Kind of reminds me of how we criticize a move the Borg makes and later realize it turned out well because they had a lot more info than we did and that they were playing chess while we were thinking checkers.

I'm not saying I know the reasons the luftballon played out like it did, but I doubt that a) we let it cross the US collecting and disseminating info, or b) we didn't shoot it down earlier just because of feckless leadership.

edit: no way I think it just accidentally floated off course, or that the generals wouldn't follow presidential orders.

That’s fine. No offense taken and I respect your take. My stance is still the same on it. We’re going to have differences in how we see and process this, and some facts we don’t have to wait for our government to explain to us if it’s right over our heads (literally).

On a lighter note, the folks in Myrtle Beach got a brief 4th of February firework show.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

All this uproar over a weather balloon when 80-90% of smartphones have TikTok on them, and that shit has done more spying for China than any weather balloon could ever do.

 

[The Stranger]

All this uproar over a weather balloon when 80-90% of smartphones have TikTok on them, and that shit has done more spying for China than any weather balloon could ever do.

If you listen to details comparing tiktok in US vs China...It reminds me of the old KGB agent detailing "ideological subversion".

 

[Negan4Coach]

We better be ready for the economic (and defense technology) ramifications. Like it or not over the past 40 years, we have become 100% reliant on Chinese / Taiwanese / Hong Kong products. And it's not just "cheap stuff". All the the most advanced semi-conductors come out of Taiwan. We tangle with China and that supply is shut off instantly, and we don't have the capability / know how to create it in the US any longer. Intel fell behind, IBM got out of the business, AMD's most advanced technology is via TSMC in Taiwan. Vast numbers of US companies have moved high tech assembly operations to China, which would cut that flow off. Anywhere between 65-85% of rare earth metals, required in high tech, come from China. Not to mention virtually all goods that we as regular consumer use. Our economy would tank in a heartbeat.

I'm not defending China, just stating the realities that we, as a country would be crippled if we tangle with them. Of course, they would also take a hit as we are the biggest consumer. That's probably the best news. Our two countries have a symbiotic relationship. We need them for all the goods, they need us to buy the goods.

You're not wrong. A war with China would be an economic disaster for both countries. Apparently- there are many who endeavored to make sure this was the case during the Clinton years and the days of Globalism. Maybe they were praescient in seeing the years to come and were trying to prevent an inevitable war. Offshore everything to your enemy...and suddenly, it is inconceivable that they would be your enemy.

I get the idea behind this. I mean, Germany and Japan were enemies who did unspeakably horrible things and we made them into friends afterwards. One has to imagine why we didn't embrace Russia after we defeated them in the Cold War and work with Yeltsin to reform and rebuild them, instead of isolating and antagonizing them. As we liberated their former satellites- we should have worked to liberate Russia, and rebuild it as a democracy, instead of standing by as oligarchs pillaged the remnants of the Soviet Union.

 

[ndp]

Yes, Chinese Spy Balloons Flew Over The U.S. When President Trump Was In Office Too

Talking heads on cable TV were up in arms about the Chinese spy balloon that was shot down over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday. But Chinese balloons were flying over the U.S. when former President Donald Trump was in office too.

www.forbes.com

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

It's fair to praise Trump for trying a new approach when standard diplomacy under Clinton and Bush and Obama had always failed at the lowest level. Skipping the bureaucratic chain and trying to hammer something out face to face wasn't a bad idea.

But it should also be pointed out 1) this failed, completely. NK went nuclear and tested missiles to their hearts content while Trump denied that was literally happening and 2) he kept at this failed policy even when it was clear it had failed, to the point of praising Kim Jong Un personally during speeches and giving KJU more face to face meetings despite the lack of results from previous encounters



The West thought Ukraine wouldn't last a week. They didn't commit much of any aid until April 2022 when the Ukrainians forced the Russians to retreat from Kyiv (meaning the West was convinced Ukraine wasn't going to lose in the next 72 hours) + the revelation of war crimes at Bucha and other places (nie welder, Scholz?). And even then it's been a drip drip drip of whatever crap they have lying around. It took nearly a year since the beginning of the invasion for modern battle tanks to finally be committed in large numbers.

Meanwhile Trump happily gave lethal aid to Ukraine in their war in Donbas against Russia, up until he put a hold on that aid to try and get Zelenskyy to announce the Ukrainian government was investigating Biden for their ties to Burisma and the firing of corrupt Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin.

I remember @Negan4Coach specificaľy being surprised (very much pleasantly) by the outcome of the first months.

He was training (I think Moldavians?) folks for guerrilla warfare since no one imagined Rus^ia would fu^k up this hard.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

You're not wrong. A war with China would be an economic disaster for both countries. Apparently- there are many who endeavored to make sure this was the case during the Clinton years and the days of Globalism. Maybe they were praescient in seeing the years to come and were trying to prevent an inevitable war. Offshore everything to your enemy...and suddenly, it is inconceivable that they would be your enemy.

I'm not sure why you think this is/was a Clinton thing. It goes back longer than that across both Parties. It's a "capitalism" thing. We had no problem losing our technology and manufacturing edge to a country that attacked Pearl Harbor. If someone else can do it cheaper and it helps the bottom line, a company will go in that direction. I used to manage a semi-conductor photolithography engineer group back in 1991-2. At that time, there were only 3 real choices for equipment: Nikon, Canon, ASML (dutch). There was a US company (SVGL) that was coming out with Deep Uv equipment, and while their technology had promise at the time, their equipment wasn't good enough for production (eventually ASML bought them).

Many electronic items used in assembly were coming from China. US corporations were moving final assemblies over-seas to wherever they could get the best tax situation and cheapest labor. I was part of a team that went to multiple countries when deciding where the company would put its packaging and test operations. Almost all the best options were Asia.

It's not so much as "offshore to your enemy" as it is "offshore to the best economic location". Were there also Political policies that made it easier? Probably but my experience is that the bottom line is the big driver of such decisions.

Ireland, for instance, gave tons of money, tax breaks, low corporate tax rates, etc.. to companies to move high tech jobs there and many companies did "offshore" to Ireland.

I get the idea behind this. I mean, Germany and Japan were enemies who did unspeakably horrible things and we made them into friends afterwards.

Yep.

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

I'm not sure why you think this is/was a Clinton thing. It goes back longer than that across both Parties. It's a "capitalism" thing. We had no problem losing our technology and manufacturing edge to a country that attacked Pearl Harbor. If someone else can do it cheaper and it helps the bottom line, a company will go in that direction. I used to manage a semi-conductor photolithography engineer group back in 1991-2. At that time, there were only 3 real choices for equipment: Nikon, Canon, ASML (dutch). There was a US company (SVGL) that was coming out with Deep Uv equipment, and while their technology had promise at the time, their equipment wasn't good enough for production (eventually ASML bought them).

Many electronic items used in assembly were coming from China. US corporations were moving final assemblies over-seas to wherever they could get the best tax situation and cheapest labor. I was part of a team that went to multiple countries when deciding where the company would put its packaging and test operations. Almost all the best options were Asia.

It's not so much as "offshore to your enemy" as it is "offshore to the best economic location". Were there also Political policies that made it easier? Probably but my experience is that the bottom line is the big driver of such decisions.

Ireland, for instance, gave tons of money, tax breaks, low corporate tax rates, etc.. to companies to move high tech jobs there and many companies did "offshore" to Ireland.


Yep.

As largely why textiles and furniture moved from the NE to the South.

 

[ndp]

I'm not sure why you think this is/was a Clinton thing. It goes back longer than that across both Parties. It's a "capitalism" thing. We had no problem losing our technology and manufacturing edge to a country that attacked Pearl Harbor. If someone else can do it cheaper and it helps the bottom line, a company will go in that direction. I used to manage a semi-conductor photolithography engineer group back in 1991-2. At that time, there were only 3 real choices for equipment: Nikon, Canon, ASML (dutch). There was a US company (SVGL) that was coming out with Deep Uv equipment, and while their technology had promise at the time, their equipment wasn't good enough for production (eventually ASML bought them).

Many electronic items used in assembly were coming from China. US corporations were moving final assemblies over-seas to wherever they could get the best tax situation and cheapest labor. I was part of a team that went to multiple countries when deciding where the company would put its packaging and test operations. Almost all the best options were Asia.

It's not so much as "offshore to your enemy" as it is "offshore to the best economic location". Were there also Political policies that made it easier? Probably but my experience is that the bottom line is the big driver of such decisions.

Ireland, for instance, gave tons of money, tax breaks, low corporate tax rates, etc.. to companies to move high tech jobs there and many companies did "offshore" to Ireland.


Yep.

So you’re saying a bunch of rich corporate executives sold out middle class America to add a few more zeros to their bank accounts regardless of political affiliation or policy?

I guess if you wanted to tie it to politics Carter signed the trade agreement in 79 that paved the way for the beginning of the mass exodus in the 80’s under the OG grifter in chief Mr. GreedIsGood.

The sooner poor and middle class people in this country realize the ultra wealthy, regardless of political affiliation, don’t give two shits about them. The sooner we could potentially elect some leaders willing to make a few regulatory changes to help address the ever growing wealth gap. But instead they keep everyone arguing about some culture war nonsense while the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

 

[The Stranger]

Germany and Japan were "friends" after WWII, but only after forced de-militarization, forced industrial disarmament, harvesting of IP, and Bretton Woods Agreement. Post-cold war, the US wasn't in the same situation to completely dictate terms w/ Russia...I think this was the main difference.

The US annual trade deficit with China is ~$350-$400 billion. They send us stuff they make and we send them dollars. They are maneuvering to make the Yuan a global reserve currency and the US is trying to reestablish industrial competence. It's a new cold war.

 

[Negan4Coach]

It's fair to praise Trump for trying a new approach when standard diplomacy under Clinton and Bush and Obama had always failed at the lowest level. Skipping the bureaucratic chain and trying to hammer something out face to face wasn't a bad idea.

But it should also be pointed out 1) this failed, completely. NK went nuclear and tested missiles to their hearts content while Trump denied that was literally happening and 2) he kept at this failed policy even when it was clear it had failed, to the point of praising Kim Jong Un personally during speeches and giving KJU more face to face meetings despite the lack of results from previous encounters



The West thought Ukraine wouldn't last a week. They didn't commit much of any aid until April 2022 when the Ukrainians forced the Russians to retreat from Kyiv (meaning the West was convinced Ukraine wasn't going to lose in the next 72 hours) + the revelation of war crimes at Bucha and other places (nie welder, Scholz?). And even then it's been a drip drip drip of whatever crap they have lying around. It took nearly a year since the beginning of the invasion for modern battle tanks to finally be committed in large numbers.

Meanwhile Trump happily gave lethal aid to Ukraine in their war in Donbas against Russia, up until he put a hold on that aid to try and get Zelenskyy to announce the Ukrainian government was investigating Biden for their ties to Burisma and the firing of corrupt Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin.

Not even a week! When I was in Bulgaria for that NATO exercise we had Russian forces into Moldova at D+5. Not sure why we were so down on a military that we've been training and equipping since 2014. The UKR guys who were with us knew it was coming. Very grim bunch.

I'm not sure why you think this is/was a Clinton thing. It goes back longer than that across both Parties. It's a "capitalism" thing. We had no problem losing our technology and manufacturing edge to a country that attacked Pearl Harbor. If someone else can do it cheaper and it helps the bottom line, a company will go in that direction. I used to manage a semi-conductor photolithography engineer group back in 1991-2. At that time, there were only 3 real choices for equipment: Nikon, Canon, ASML (dutch). There was a US company (SVGL) that was coming out with Deep Uv equipment, and while their technology had promise at the time, their equipment wasn't good enough for production (eventually ASML bought them).

Many electronic items used in assembly were coming from China. US corporations were moving final assemblies over-seas to wherever they could get the best tax situation and cheapest labor. I was part of a team that went to multiple countries when deciding where the company would put its packaging and test operations. Almost all the best options were Asia.

It's not so much as "offshore to your enemy" as it is "offshore to the best economic location". Were there also Political policies that made it easier? Probably but my experience is that the bottom line is the big driver of such decisions.

Ireland, for instance, gave tons of money, tax breaks, low corporate tax rates, etc.. to companies to move high tech jobs there and many companies did "offshore" to Ireland.


Yep.

Yeah, I won't lay it all at Clinton's feet, but things really ramped up under his watch with the Chinese. Hence the whole Johnny Huang, Lippo Group "White House Coffee" fundraising scam.

Of course it was Nixon that started us down this road. The Globalists figured that a modern, economically robust China would come into the fold of democratic nations and shrug off Communism. Boy were they wrong.

US companies should have been heavily sanctioned by the government for offshoring jobs and hollowing out this country. Tariffs, the whole 9 yards.

 

[ndp]

US companies should have been heavily sanctioned by the government for offshoring jobs and hollowing out this country. Tariffs, the whole 9 yards.

One of my best friends growing up was a plant manager for a very large US furniture manufacturer. In 2003 he was sent to overseas to help “evaluate” a production line. It took him about two weeks to figure out he was training the guy who eventually took his job. Good ol’ American greed.

 

[Borsig]

I mean, if you think that it's a coincidence that they set a balloon up, and it just happens to fly right over malmstrom, then.... Well...

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

One of my best friends growing up was a plant manager for a very large US furniture manufacturer. In 2003 he was sent to overseas to help “evaluate” a production line. It took him about two weeks to figure out he was training the guy who eventually took his job. Good ol’ American greed.

We middle class Americans (as consumers and investors) are also complicit to some degree. We have fallen in love with, and frankly, become dependent on cheaper goods. We'll get it one way or another, so if a product is made in the USA, it better be worth the price premium, or we'll pass on it. And for a large number of products, we pass. Why buy a custom piece of furnitures made locally when I can go get something manufactured in Asia at IKEA? I recently had someone contact me and ask if I could build them a piece of furniture. They had a picture of something they found at a local furniture shop. I went to the store and looked at it. It was made in India and the craftsmanship wasn't great at all. She wanted a a similar design with different wood and a slightly different style. The lumber alone would cost me almost $300. I told her what I would need to charge for it to be worth my time, and she was shocked, because the piece in the store was only $500. She ended up buying the piece at the store because of the price point, which was fine by me since I had enough on my plate anyhow.

Also, a lot of people have a 401Ks and IRAs investing in the market, thus we expect a company to improve stock prices and/or increase dividends which drives behavior as well.

Don't get me wrong, I know that many CEOs have compensation packages that are tied to stock price and they are motivated to go after short term gains in many cases at the expense those lower in the chain. All I'm saying is that the average consumer plays a role in this as well.

 

[ndp]

We middle class Americans (as consumers and investors) are also complicit to some degree. We have fallen in love with, and frankly, become dependent on cheaper goods. We'll get it one way or another, so if a product is made in the USA, it better be worth the price premium, or we'll pass on it. And for a large number of products, we pass. Why buy a custom piece of furnitures made locally when I can go get something manufactured in Asia at IKEA? I recently had someone contact me and ask if I could build them a piece of furniture. They had a picture of something they found at a local furniture shop. I went to the store and looked at it. It was made in India and the craftsmanship wasn't great at all. She wanted a a similar design with different wood and a slightly different style. The lumber alone would cost me almost $300. I told her what I would need to charge for it to be worth my time, and she was shocked, because the piece in the store was only $500. She ended up buying the piece at the store because of the price point, which was fine by me since I had enough on my plate anyhow.

Also, a lot of people have a 401Ks and IRAs investing in the market, thus we expect a company to improve stock prices and/or increase dividends which drives behavior as well.

Don't get me wrong, I know that many CEOs have compensation packages that are tied to stock price and they are motivated to go after short term gains in many cases at the expense those lower in the chain. All I'm saying is that the average consumer plays a role in this as well.

100%

My dad is a furniture maker with a fully equipped cabinet shop and I use ikea shelving to store record collection.

3/4” furniture grade ply was going to cost me more than double what the complete unit did at ikea. By the time you factor in hardware and finish I would have been over 4x the cost of the ikea unit, that’s not even accounting for time.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Pound for pound, Atlanta has the worst airport in the world.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Pound for pound, Atlanta has the worst airport in the world.

Have you not travelled through any of the airports in the NY metro area? LAX is probably worse though.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

100%

My dad is a furniture maker with a fully equipped cabinet shop and I use ikea shelving to store record collection.

3/4” furniture grade ply was going to cost me more than double what the complete unit did at ikea. By the time you factor in hardware and finish I would have been over 4x the cost of the ikea unit, that’s not even accounting for time.

in 2019, I could get 3/4" cabinet grade ply for $25-$30 / sheet (or less in bulk). It ballooned up to almost $70 / sheet during the pandemic. It's "come back down" to about $50 / sheet now. I could get soft maple for under $3 / board foot, and it's still close to $6 / Board foot today.

Don't even try getting Baltic Birch plywood. The war in Ukraine has made the prices for that go through the roof.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Have you not travelled through any of the airports in the NY metro area? LAX is probably worse though.

The NY airports are fine. LaGuardia is actually a bit above average these days, compared to airports of a similar size.

ATL is the reality of what people who have never been to NY think NY must be like.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The NY airports are fine. LaGuardia is actually a bit above average these days, compared to airports of a similar size.

ATL is the reality of what people who have never been to NY think NY must be like.

JFK sucks. I'd take ATL over JFK any day. LaGuardia, I agree, it's ok.

I'd take any of those over LAX though, but I have a soft spot for LAX because of DieHard, the best Christmas movie ever.