Boom Boom Apathy
I am the Professor. Deal with it!
- Sep 6, 2006
- 49,337
- 102,087
TSMC may even become the only real option for "leading edge" if things continue as they have been. Their processes seem to be notably more dense than Samsung's equivalent processes, and TSMC's yield rate has been absurdly high in recent years. Samsung's yield rate on the other hand has been pretty atrocious, even for smaller parts.
Yep, TSMC is the gorilla in the room for sure. I remember early in my career giving a VIP a tour of a Fab. After the first 10 minutes, his response was: "It's amazing that you are able to yield anything".
And unfortunately, even if an American company did decide to build out a leading edge fab, in addition to the massive funds required and years to build out the plant, they would also be limited by ASML's production capacity. Every machine they produce is spoken for, and without EUV lithography, competing at the leading edge is going to be nigh impossible.
Yeah, like I said, there's no quick fix. Early in my career, I managed a lithography development and engineering group. Back then, we were looking into Deep UV, mask compensation and phase shift technology to get to the next level. I left that job before EUV came about, but was still in a group that was responsible for technology development and qualifications so stayed in touch with it. Been following it ever since, even in retirement.
I hope you are right, but I fear it's a long ways off.I'd expect Intel's fabs to get back on track at some point, but TSMC is definitely is not making it easy for them to catch up.