- Jul 25, 2007
- 4,186
- 4,709
I was waffling on posting this in the draft GDT or in the Prospects forum, but figured I'd ask our Sharks community first. How'd you do on your wild predictions for a wild and wooly draft?
I decided this year I wanted to evaluate my final mock vs. reality, as well as, over many years, track my final rankings (different than final mock) and see where I was right or wrong, lucky/unlucky on player evaluations.
Methodology for evaluating the mock(s):
LMK what happened to you!
I decided this year I wanted to evaluate my final mock vs. reality, as well as, over many years, track my final rankings (different than final mock) and see where I was right or wrong, lucky/unlucky on player evaluations.
Methodology for evaluating the mock(s):
- I listed out my final mock, and then I listed where the players were actually drafted.
- I subtracted my final mock ranking with the actual draft position, and averaged that error for top 20 and top 32.
- I added a simple standard deviation calc just for S&G's. Doesn't say much.
- I did the same thing for McKenzie's last ranking and Pronman's last mock.
- For the whole round 1, Pronman won, with an avg error of only -1.31. McKenzie was next at -1.5, and I was last at -3.8. (EDIT: absolute errors of 4.4, 4.5, and 7)
- However, for the top 20 only, I won, with an avg error of only -0.5, vs Pronman and McK at -0.7. (EDIT: absolute errors of 3, 3.2, and 3.9).
- I nailed 6 of the top 20 picks, Pronman nailed 5, and McK nailed just 2.
- For the whole round, I guessed 27/32, Pronman also, and McK 28/32. Both of them called O'Reilly at 32.
- I suffered for not thinking through my 21-32 picks very much, in particular Pulkkinen and Shuravin. Ah well. Next year with VGK's pick, we'll all likely have to pay more attention to the high teens or low twenties.
Mock Pick | Player | Actual Pick | Error | Notes |
1 | Celebrini | 1 | 0 | Gimme |
2 | Demidov | 5 | -3 | I thought, like some others at HFB, that they might draft Demidov. |
3 | Sennecke | 3 | 0 | Hat tip to Wheeler, but I'm also still proud of this one |
4 | Lindstrom | 4 | 0 | Fairly obvious |
5 | Buium | 12 | -7 | With Demidov and Lindstrom gone, probably... but not with Demidov available! |
6 | Silayev | 10 | -4 | Slight miss |
7 | Yakemchuk | 7 | 0 | Nailed it |
8 | Levshunov | 2 | 6 | Thought he would fall far -- he didn't. Big miss. |
9 | Dickinson | 11 | -2 | Pretty good! Just swapped Parekh and Dickinson |
10 | Iginla | 6 | 4 | Like everyone, 6OA was a bit shocking |
11 | Parekh | 9 | 2 | Pretty good! Just swapped Parekh and Dickinson |
12 | Catton | 8 | 4 | Nice job Catton going earlier - I missed it |
13 | Helenius | 14 | -1 | Pretty good! |
14 | Eiserman | 20 | -6 | Thought he might fall farther, but was too chicken to mock it |
15 | MBN | 15 | 0 | Not so hard to nail this one |
16 | Solberg | 23 | -7 | Was too high on him |
17 | Luchanko | 13 | 4 | Everyone apparently too low on him |
18 | Hage | 21 | -3 | Decent |
19 | Connolly | 19 | 0 | Nailed it! Figured they wouldn't care about his off-ice stuff |
20 | Jiricek | 16 | 4 | Anywhere 16-20 made sense |
21 | Beaudoin | 24 | -3 | I really didn't know what to do here |
22 | Chernyshov | 33 | -11 | Super surprised he fell, but Bob McK wasn't |
23 | Greentree | 26 | -3 | Close enough |
24 | Badinka | 34 | -10 | Just thought RD would go higher |
25 | Vanacker | 27 | -2 | No clue about this guy, random guess |
26 | Pulkkinnen | 54 | -28 | Way too bullish on the overager |
27 | Shuravin | 97 | -70 | Caser swayed my opinion too much... singlehandedly tanked my avg |
28 | Hemming | 29 | -1 | At consensus |
29 | Surin | 22 | 7 | Just followed Pronman here |
30 | Letourneau | 25 | 5 | Seemed like he'd go in the 1st |
31 | Kleber | 42 | -11 | Thought maybe teams would love the size |
32 | Paracsak | 17 | 15 | Threw him in late, didn't do much thinking |
LMK what happened to you!