How'd you do on your draft predictions?

[coooldude]

I was waffling on posting this in the draft GDT or in the Prospects forum, but figured I'd ask our Sharks community first. How'd you do on your wild predictions for a wild and wooly draft?

I decided this year I wanted to evaluate my final mock vs. reality, as well as, over many years, track my final rankings (different than final mock) and see where I was right or wrong, lucky/unlucky on player evaluations.

Methodology for evaluating the mock(s):

1. I listed out my final mock, and then I listed where the players were actually drafted.
2. I subtracted my final mock ranking with the actual draft position, and averaged that error for top 20 and top 32.
3. I added a simple standard deviation calc just for S&G's. Doesn't say much.
4. I did the same thing for McKenzie's last ranking and Pronman's last mock.

High Level Results & Evaluation:

• For the whole round 1, Pronman won, with an avg error of only -1.31. McKenzie was next at -1.5, and I was last at -3.8. (EDIT: absolute errors of 4.4, 4.5, and 7)
• However, for the top 20 only, I won, with an avg error of only -0.5, vs Pronman and McK at -0.7. (EDIT: absolute errors of 3, 3.2, and 3.9).
• I nailed 6 of the top 20 picks, Pronman nailed 5, and McK nailed just 2.
• For the whole round, I guessed 27/32, Pronman also, and McK 28/32. Both of them called O'Reilly at 32.
• I suffered for not thinking through my 21-32 picks very much, in particular Pulkkinen and Shuravin. Ah well. Next year with VGK's pick, we'll all likely have to pay more attention to the high teens or low twenties.

Detailed analysis of my mock:

Mock Pick	Player	Actual Pick	Error	Notes
1	Celebrini	1	0	Gimme
2	Demidov	5	-3	I thought, like some others at HFB, that they might draft Demidov.
3	Sennecke	3	0	Hat tip to Wheeler, but I'm also still proud of this one
4	Lindstrom	4	0	Fairly obvious
5	Buium	12	-7	With Demidov and Lindstrom gone, probably... but not with Demidov available!
6	Silayev	10	-4	Slight miss
7	Yakemchuk	7	0	Nailed it
8	Levshunov	2	6	Thought he would fall far -- he didn't. Big miss.
9	Dickinson	11	-2	Pretty good! Just swapped Parekh and Dickinson
10	Iginla	6	4	Like everyone, 6OA was a bit shocking
11	Parekh	9	2	Pretty good! Just swapped Parekh and Dickinson
12	Catton	8	4	Nice job Catton going earlier - I missed it
13	Helenius	14	-1	Pretty good!
14	Eiserman	20	-6	Thought he might fall farther, but was too chicken to mock it
15	MBN	15	0	Not so hard to nail this one
16	Solberg	23	-7	Was too high on him
17	Luchanko	13	4	Everyone apparently too low on him
18	Hage	21	-3	Decent
19	Connolly	19	0	Nailed it! Figured they wouldn't care about his off-ice stuff
20	Jiricek	16	4	Anywhere 16-20 made sense
21	Beaudoin	24	-3	I really didn't know what to do here
22	Chernyshov	33	-11	Super surprised he fell, but Bob McK wasn't
23	Greentree	26	-3	Close enough
24	Badinka	34	-10	Just thought RD would go higher
25	Vanacker	27	-2	No clue about this guy, random guess
26	Pulkkinnen	54	-28	Way too bullish on the overager
27	Shuravin	97	-70	Caser swayed my opinion too much... singlehandedly tanked my avg
28	Hemming	29	-1	At consensus
29	Surin	22	7	Just followed Pronman here
30	Letourneau	25	5	Seemed like he'd go in the 1st
31	Kleber	42	-11	Thought maybe teams would love the size
32	Paracsak	17	15	Threw him in late, didn't do much thinking

LMK what happened to you!

Click to read more...

 

[TheBeard]

I don’t know how it was possible but I nailed the first 8

 

[coooldude]

I don’t know how it was possible but I nailed the first 8

Epic. Congrats!

 

[GRANdSharks]

fell apart after the first 2 lol, though my overall top 100 draft board did quite well in terms of expected range compared to previous attempts the last couple years.

 

[Star Platinum]

I was waffling on posting this in the draft GDT or in the Prospects forum, but figured I'd ask our Sharks community first. How'd you do on your wild predictions for a wild and wooly draft?

I decided this year I wanted to evaluate my final mock vs. reality, as well as, over many years, track my final rankings (different than final mock) and see where I was right or wrong, lucky/unlucky on player evaluations.

Methodology for evaluating the mock(s):

1. I listed out my final mock, and then I listed where the players were actually drafted.
2. I subtracted my final mock ranking with the actual draft position, and averaged that error for top 20 and top 32.
3. I added a simple standard deviation calc just for S&G's. Doesn't say much.
4. I did the same thing for McKenzie's last ranking and Pronman's last mock.

High Level Results & Evaluation:

• For the whole round 1, Pronman won, with an avg error of only -1.31. McKenzie was next at -1.5, and I was last at -3.8. (EDIT: absolute errors of 4.4, 4.5, and 7)
• However, for the top 20 only, I won, with an avg error of only -0.5, vs Pronman and McK at -0.7. (EDIT: absolute errors of 3, 3.2, and 3.9).
• I nailed 6 of the top 20 picks, Pronman nailed 5, and McK nailed just 2.
• For the whole round, I guessed 27/32, Pronman also, and McK 28/32. Both of them called O'Reilly at 32.
• I suffered for not thinking through my 21-32 picks very much, in particular Pulkkinen and Shuravin. Ah well. Next year with VGK's pick, we'll all likely have to pay more attention to the high teens or low twenties.

Detailed analysis of my mock:

Mock Pick	Player	Actual Pick	Error	Notes
1	Celebrini	1	0	Gimme
2	Demidov	5	-3	I thought, like some others at HFB, that they might draft Demidov.
3	Sennecke	3	0	Hat tip to Wheeler, but I'm also still proud of this one
4	Lindstrom	4	0	Fairly obvious
5	Buium	12	-7	With Demidov and Lindstrom gone, probably... but not with Demidov available!
6	Silayev	10	-4	Slight miss
7	Yakemchuk	7	0	Nailed it
8	Levshunov	2	6	Thought he would fall far -- he didn't. Big miss.
9	Dickinson	11	-2	Pretty good! Just swapped Parekh and Dickinson
10	Iginla	6	4	Like everyone, 6OA was a bit shocking
11	Parekh	9	2	Pretty good! Just swapped Parekh and Dickinson
12	Catton	8	4	Nice job Catton going earlier - I missed it
13	Helenius	14	-1	Pretty good!
14	Eiserman	20	-6	Thought he might fall farther, but was too chicken to mock it
15	MBN	15	0	Not so hard to nail this one
16	Solberg	23	-7	Was too high on him
17	Luchanko	13	4	Everyone apparently too low on him
18	Hage	21	-3	Decent
19	Connolly	19	0	Nailed it! Figured they wouldn't care about his off-ice stuff
20	Jiricek	16	4	Anywhere 16-20 made sense
21	Beaudoin	24	-3	I really didn't know what to do here
22	Chernyshov	33	-11	Super surprised he fell, but Bob McK wasn't
23	Greentree	26	-3	Close enough
24	Badinka	34	-10	Just thought RD would go higher
25	Vanacker	27	-2	No clue about this guy, random guess
26	Pulkkinnen	54	-28	Way too bullish on the overager
27	Shuravin	97	-70	Caser swayed my opinion too much... singlehandedly tanked my avg
28	Hemming	29	-1	At consensus
29	Surin	22	7	Just followed Pronman here
30	Letourneau	25	5	Seemed like he'd go in the 1st
31	Kleber	42	-11	Thought maybe teams would love the size
32	Paracsak	17	15	Threw him in late, didn't do much thinking

LMK what happened to you!

It all fell apart after the second pick

 

[tiburon12]

I got 1/1 and then i Costanza'd

 

[Star Platinum]

I got 1/1 and then i Costanza'd

We should have done the opposite

 

[mogambomoroo]

I was so way off that I don't want to even post it here
Dickinson was in the SNOD, but in my own personal mock I had him going a lot earlier.

 

[OrrNumber4]

What borders on incredible is me getting the first pick right. Think about it...of the thousands of eligible players, I managed to pick the first choice! Needle in a haystack indeed...

 

[Barrie22]

What borders on incredible is me getting the first pick right. Think about it...of the thousands of eligible players, I managed to pick the first choice! Needle in a haystack indeed...

Same.

 

[NiWa]

Was away traveling for a week, so took some time to actually get back to this.
I didn't try do a mock, so this was rather against my actual list:

Top 32: -2.47.
Top 20: -1.8.

In the top 20, biggest outliers were: Chernyshov (-17) & Buium (-9) and Sennecke (+15).
Top 32, biggest outliers were these fallers: Artamonov (-26), , Ritchie (-16), Basha (-13).
I only got 3 correct: Celebrini, Lindstrom and Catton.

I did some basic research (Athletic article, comments, HFboards draft threads for respective teams) on what positions (with players at the top) teams were most likely to pick and it was according to the expected range for picks 1-7. I was completely off then for everything except the Sharks in 8-12:

• Seattle (#8): Expected D, but they drafted Catton.
• Calgary (#9): Expected C or winger with skill (Catton or Iginla), but they drafted a D (Parekh).
• New Jersey (#10): Expected C or winger with size, but they went D (Silayev).
• Minnesota (#12): Expected winger, but of course they went D (Buium).

Surprisingly it was then as planned #13-#21 until Nashville (#22): Expected D or C, but they went winger. (Yet, Surin has been scouted as having the potential to play C at NHL level).

Got ANA (#23) right, but it then really fell part. At that point teams really seemed to just go with BPA on their board rather then what the public thought was on the positional need.

 

[67 others]

I predicted 1 and 2 fine before everything went weird. I thought Anaheim would take Silayev, Utah would take a Dman, and Iginla would fall to Calgary lol and hoped Dickenson would be within trade up target. I was shocked he fell to 11th.

Wanted to trade up to get EJ Emery, but then he went
30th.

But overall, getting the top 2 targets you wanted leave you with a week-long afterglow lol

 

[weastern bias]

Anaheim, Utah, Seattle, Calgary, Ottawa and New Jersey made it such a crazy and unpredictable first round

 

[Nighthock]

1:1 Celebrini to SJ (no way)
1:15 MBN to Detroit

That's about it...

 

[The Nemesis]

I just predicted that everyone would have a good time. So in that regard everyone was the real winners.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

I got the first 2 right