How PDB uses his Players/Dmen Zone Exit Analysis

[Bologna 1]

Shows how underrated and important Fayne truly is to our defensive corps.

yepppp........and i read something also today that he faces the toughest quality of competition yet still has the least amount of average shots against per 20 mins of 5 on 5 icetime. definitely an overlooked gem who shouldnt ever sit.

 

[Oroku Saki*]

I get FMASC's point. This is a faster game. You need a quick transition. But while stone feet defenseman are still around, don't hate me for being a fan of some.

 

[Zippy316]

This is nice to look to assist an argument, but it's not the be all, end all of how good a player is.

It's also very flawed again. Volchenkov could dig the puck out, pass it to Fayne, and Fayne gets the credit for leaving the zone.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

This is nice to look to assist an argument, but it's not the be all, end all of how good a player is.

It's also very flawed again. Volchenkov could dig the puck out, pass it to Fayne, and Fayne gets the credit for leaving the zone.

Not to keep beating the same drum here, but I don't see the point of an "assist." The hard play is taking the puck from behind your blueline and successfully advancing into the neutral zone via a pass. It is not difficult to simply shuffle the puck to your defense partner behind the net.

What would be more interesting is to look at something like "percentage of possession battles won", but now you're getting kind of far into the ether about what constitutes a "possession battle."

 

[Devils731]

I think this is a good idea to explore, but after reading the article I'm not sure it's advanced enough yet. It's all based on one guys perception and data gathering while I think we would need a more stringent definition of zone exit and more games tracked first.

For the Devils, the defenseman will often get in situations either defenseman could easily advance it over the blueline after possession recovery. It seems silly to give one guy the credit over the other in those cases. I wonder if this stat would be better tracked by pairings than by individuals.

 

[Cowbell232]

Not to keep beating the same drum here, but I don't see the point of an "assist." The hard play is taking the puck from behind your blueline and successfully advancing into the neutral zone via a pass. It is not difficult to simply shuffle the puck to your defense partner behind the net.

What would be more interesting is to look at something like "percentage of possession battles won", but now you're getting kind of far into the ether about what constitutes a "possession battle."

I think you misread what he meant by assist

 

[Desert Devil]

I think it's a good article, and shows how bad Sal and Volch are at breaking out. But, guys like that are needed because defensemen aren't always controlling the puck, and you need them to clear the front of the net. I'd trust Sal over a guy like Karlsson to control the mayhem around the goalie.

 

[NJDevs26]

I think it's a good article, and shows how bad Sal and Volch are at breaking out. But, guys like that are needed because defensemen aren't always controlling the puck, and you need them to clear the front of the net. I'd trust Sal over a guy like Karlsson to control the mayhem around the goalie.

Ideally you'll have one of those guys and one of the puck-movers on the same pairing. I don't neccesarily understand the argument that it has to be either all one or all the other. Having balance is what's crucial.

 

[DEVILS ALL THE WAY*]

I think it's a good article, and shows how bad Sal and Volch are at breaking out. But, guys like that are needed because defensemen aren't always controlling the puck, and you need them to clear the front of the net. I'd trust Sal over a guy like Karlsson to control the mayhem around the goalie.

I fully agree, but in a perfect world, you have both type of players on the same duo.

Ideally you'll have one of those guys and one of the puck-movers on the same pairing. I don't neccesarily understand the argument that it has to be either all one or all the other. Having balance is what's crucial.

Exactly.

What I don't get is why do we have to overpay for our SAH d-men? Look at the players on that list and most of them aren't making close to the coin Volch or Sal are earning.

I do agree that we need bruisers in our lineup... we just don't have to offer them the bank when it comes to contracts.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I think this is a good idea to explore, but after reading the article I'm not sure it's advanced enough yet. It's all based on one guys perception and data gathering while I think we would need a more stringent definition of zone exit and more games tracked first.

For the Devils, the defenseman will often get in situations either defenseman could easily advance it over the blueline after possession recovery. It seems silly to give one guy the credit over the other in those cases. I wonder if this stat would be better tracked by pairings than by individuals.

You're not penalizing a player for not advancing it. It's a percentage. So you're penalizing a player for trying to advance it and failing.

 

[Devils86]

So what this analysis really says is how stupid the trapezoid is and how it forced a team built on a puck moving goaltender to change for the worse because the defense that used to be mid boards to take the pass from Marty now has to go twice as far into their zone and work twice as hard to get the puck out.

But wasn't that the purpose of the trapezoid in the first place, so the D had to go down and dig out the puck allowing teams more time to get in on a fore check. Agree of disagree with the validity of the trapezoid but by this comment it shows that its doing just as they intended.

 

[Devils731]

You're not penalizing a player for not advancing it. It's a percentage. So you're penalizing a player for trying to advance it and failing.

Ok, you're taking the reward of a successful out away from a player who could have easily advanced it because he passed it to the other defenseman.

For example, if Salvador and Zidlicky are both on the ice and Salvador recovers the puck, then other team retreats, Salvador will give the puck to Zids and Zids gets credit for exiting the zone. This makes sense since Zids is a better puck mover but its a credit to the pair that they're utilizing each other effectively, not that Zids was better at creating a zone exit.

The more I think about it, the more I think you need to look at the defenseman as pairs, not as individuals, for zone exits.

Also, I think it's important to add context as well, strength of opponents forecheck and time and score of game. Guys whose minutes go up when up a goal are getting easier exits and guys whose minutes increase protecting leads have harder times exiting.

 

[Rhodes 81]

this is why i didn't like sal getting re-signed. in today's game you can have a max of one guy on your blueline that can't skate with the puck and pass. we have two.

is there anywhere i could see the full list, fmasc?

 

[Richer's Ghost]

But wasn't that the purpose of the trapezoid in the first place, so the D had to go down and dig out the puck allowing teams more time to get in on a fore check. Agree of disagree with the validity of the trapezoid but by this comment it shows that its doing just as they intended.

Yes, it was to negate the advantage of having the very RARE great puck handling goaltender hidden under the guise of creating more scoring because the puck would be in the zone longer and create turnovers. The evidence has shown there are far more BAD puck handling goalies than good ones, and just like Moose the last 4-5 games, goals happen more often when they are out of the net trying to play the puck.

It was a false disguise and purely about butthurt GM's that envied the few teams with a goalie like Marty who was racking up cup wins with a trap system that forced a dump in and then quick exit up the ice thanks to a goalie pass.

So yeah, I will always hate the trapezoid for whatever reason it is advanced.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Ok, you're taking the reward of a successful out away from a player who could have easily advanced it because he passed it to the other defenseman.

For example, if Salvador and Zidlicky are both on the ice and Salvador recovers the puck, then other team retreats, Salvador will give the puck to Zids and Zids gets credit for exiting the zone. This makes sense since Zids is a better puck mover but its a credit to the pair that they're utilizing each other effectively, not that Zids was better at creating a zone exit.

The more I think about it, the more I think you need to look at the defenseman as pairs, not as individuals, for zone exits.

Also, I think it's important to add context as well, strength of opponents forecheck and time and score of game. Guys whose minutes go up when up a goal are getting easier exits and guys whose minutes increase protecting leads have harder times exiting.

The last point is definitely valid.

I'm inclined to believe that if a defenseman has an easy opportunity to skate and pass the puck out of the zone, they'll take it, regardless if they're Salvador or Zidlicky. Salvador and Volchenkov use their partners as a safety valve when they're pressured, not as a complete crutch.

You're basically surmising that puck movers get the benefit of easier zone exits because stay at home defenseman pass up those easy zone exists? I don't buy it.

 

[Blender]

While both Volchenkov and Salvador are necessary players that serve a role, this is just more proof that they should never, ever be on the ice at the same time. It has always drove me nuts that they are sometimes paired together.

Those numbers also help the argument that Fayne does a lot of things very well, and should not be scratched.

 

[Devils731]

The last point is definitely valid.

I'm inclined to believe that if a defenseman has an easy opportunity to skate and pass the puck out of the zone, they'll take it, regardless if they're Salvador or Zidlicky. Salvador and Volchenkov use their partners as a safety valve when they're pressured, not as a complete crutch.

You're basically surmising that puck movers get the benefit of easier zone exits because stay at home defenseman pass up those easy zone exists? I don't buy it.

I'm not even talking about when they're pressured, I'm talking about when the other team has completely backed off, when I could make a successful zone exit if I was on the ice. We can see it during games when the defenseman are standing there waiting for line changes to wrap up and then leave the zone and the 2 teams battle in the neutral zone to decide who gets the puck, but that's after a successful zone exit was obtained due to no conflict.

The average success is only 22%. The guy only watched each team about 13 times. There is a lot of room for variance here. Giving some players almost all the free outs while other players get none could certainly skew the numbers, when the difference between the best, average, and the worst is only 10%.

It's hard to say since I have no idea what he considers a possession and a successful zone exit, it's all just his opinion on those things.

 

[apice3*]

theoretically you can have a 100% clear rate and still get scored on ever shift. You can also have a 0% clear rate and never get scored on. The stats are interesting but they are very heavily weighted into offensive minded players.

Also id rather have girardi than clitsome, but these stats suggest otherwise.

 

[Devils86]

Yes, it was to negate the advantage of having the very RARE great puck handling goaltender hidden under the guise of creating more scoring because the puck would be in the zone longer and create turnovers. The evidence has shown there are far more BAD puck handling goalies than good ones, and just like Moose the last 4-5 games, goals happen more often when they are out of the net trying to play the puck.

It was a false disguise and purely about butthurt GM's that envied the few teams with a goalie like Marty who was racking up cup wins with a trap system that forced a dump in and then quick exit up the ice thanks to a goalie pass.

So yeah, I will always hate the trapezoid for whatever reason it is advanced.

I dont disagree with you..the trapezoid will magically be gone IMO in 2015..and it was one GM...Bobby Clarke

 

[Oroku Saki*]

That was bad.

 

[xdl1]

Results aren't at all surprising, with the exception of Fayne, although he gets by on smarts and not skills, which I think we all forget.

If we had a true 1D and no Volchenkov, you'd see Salvador-Bell Cow as a top PK unit, and a more mobile puck mover in Volchenkov's spot in the lineup. I think we are all hoping it's Larsson that takes that role on well enough to dismiss one of these stuck-in-your-own-end defensemen, and we can take on a guy like a Liles or Shattenkirk to play the 16-18 bottom pair minutes.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

How our players have been utilized by DeBoer

Zone Starts
This is a percentage which simply calculates the percentage of shifts that a player starts in the offensive zone. Neutral zone faceoffs are excluded. So if a player has a zone start % of 55%, he is starting 55% of his non-neutral zone shifts in the offensive zone, and 45% in the defensive zone.

This is an important statistic because it tells you how much the coach trusts certain players and how he's trying to maximize their value. Additionally, players with a lot of defensive zone starts might be more prone to having lower CORSI's or +/-'s because they're starting in their own end more often. A bunch of research has shown that there is a very strong correlation between starting in your own end and giving up shots/goals, and vice versa.

Alaign Vigneault is probably the modern champion of zone starts, as he uses them to extremes. Take a look at the Canucks from 11-12. http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

Forwards
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

RK	SEASON	NAME	TEAM	Off Zone Start %	Off Zone Finish %	Off Faceoff Wins	Off Faceoff Loss	Def Faceoff Wins	Def Faceoff Loss	Neu Faceoff Wins	Neu Faceoff Loss	Off Zone Finish	Def Zone Finish	Neu Zone Finish
	1	2012-2013 Season	STEVEBERNIER	N.J	57.3	49.7	25	42	23	27	35	64	77	78	80
	2	2012-2013 Season	STEFANMATTEAU	N.J	56.3	46.2	23	22	13	22	21	18	42	49	40
	3	2012-2013 Season	STEPHENGIONTA	N.J	54.5	50.6	16	38	24	21	39	65	80	78	91
	4	2012-2013 Season	ALEXEIPONIKAROVSKY	N.J	52.7	57.5	42	35	38	31	40	47	107	79	76
	5	2012-2013 Season	BOBBYBUTLER	N.J	52.3	41.4	12	11	7	14	16	18	29	41	36
	6	2012-2013 Season	KRYSTOFERBARCH	N.J	51.7	51.0	6	9	4	10	17	17	26	25	29
	7	2012-2013 Season	RYANCARTER	N.J	51.1	55.8	19	26	23	20	25	56	77	61	76
	8	2012-2013 Season	ILYAKOVALCHUK	N.J	47.6	50.4	57	51	59	60	61	57	132	130	104
	9	2012-2013 Season	TRAVISZAJAC	N.J	47.5	52.0	41	45	50	45	54	49	105	97	77
	10	2012-2013 Season	ADAMHENRIQUE	N.J	43.4	44.4	27	26	36	33	37	51	63	79	73
	11	2012-2013 Season	PATRIKELIAS	N.J	43.2	47.9	25	38	40	43	55	64	79	86	100
	12	2012-2013 Season	JACOBJOSEFSON	N.J	42.7	57.0	20	21	25	30	21	26	65	49	47
	13	2012-2013 Season	DAINIUSZUBRUS	N.J	42.3	48.9	8	22	19	22	26	20	45	47	43
	14	2012-2013 Season	DAVIDCLARKSON	N.J	40.5	51.6	25	37	46	45	48	65	98	92	103
	15	2012-2013 Season	ANDREILOKTIONOV	N.J	40.0	51.1	9	7	8	16	10	11	23	22	23

Some things to notice: Loktionov, Clarkson, Zubrus, Josefson, Elias, Henrique, Zajac, and Kovalchuk are all starting more often in their own end. What's impressive about this bunch is that many of them maintain good +/-'s and CORSI's despite having the disadvantage of starting in their own end the majority of the time.

Stephen Gionta. He gets a the third most offensive zone starts among our forwards but is our worst possession forward. While I like the grit and energy Gionta brings, he needs to be moved onto the fourth line permanently. He also should be playing wing, not center, as he is abhorrent at faceoffs.

It makes sense that Bernier starts the most in the offensive zone out of our forwards. He is a very good cycling player who can work the puck in the offensive zone, however he struggles in the transition game and gets hemmed in his own end.

If I'm DeBoer, I try to leverage this by putting Gionta and Bernier in the offensive zone more often, and leaning more on Elias and Clarkson to drive the play forward from the defensive end.

Defensemen

	RK	SEASON	NAME	TEAM	Off Zone Start %	Off Zone Finish %	Off Faceoff Wins	Off Faceoff Loss	Def Faceoff Wins	Def Faceoff Loss	Neu Faceoff Wins	Neu Faceoff Loss	Off Zone Finish	Def Zone Finish	Neu Zone Finish
	1	2012-2013 Season	MAREKZIDLICKY	N.J	60.1	54.7	57	56	32	43	44	65	123	102	106
	2	2012-2013 Season	HENRIKTALLINDER	N.J	54.7	50.8	26	26	25	18	20	32	62	60	47
	3	2012-2013 Season	ANTONVOLCHENKOV	N.J	49.6	56.1	25	34	35	25	43	33	101	79	76
	4	2012-2013 Season	MARKFAYNE	N.J	48.6	50.6	29	43	34	42	53	58	80	78	80
	5	2012-2013 Season	BRYCESALVADOR	N.J	43.1	49.4	37	53	61	58	75	89	127	130	124
	6	2012-2013 Season	ANDYGREENE	N.J	40.7	48.9	33	44	49	63	56	70	111	116	121
	7	2012-2013 Season	ADAMLARSSON	N.J	37.3	47.6	17	24	33	36	35	60	78	86	92

Adam Larsson has struggled via CORSI metrics this year, but that all makes sense when one realizes he's starting only 37.3% of his non neutral zone shifts in the offensive zone. The eye test confirms that Larsson has played well this year, and it's clear that DeBoer trusts him in his own end.

Pretty obvious that DeBoer is looking to isolate Zidlicky from tough situations. Zidlicky's quality of competition metrics (I'm not including QoC metrics because their usefulness is debated) are also pretty low, further indicating that he's being protected.

Andy Greene and Bryce Salvador are also bearing a lot of the brunt of defensive zone faceoffs. I think Greene and Larsson have played a lot as a pairing, so that makes sense.

 

[apice3*]

not surprised by any of this. It all makes sense honestly

 

[CerebralGenesis]

Pretty Good stuff

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Larsson actually starts more of his shifts in the defensive zone than any NHL defenseman. Kind of a cool stat. http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#snip=f