How PDB uses his Players/Dmen Zone Exit Analysis

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

There's also some confirmation bias in bringing this up to this board, and it's proving some posters' points to an extreme.

I'm not commenting on these players in particular, but I'm saying in general, you can find stats to prove what you want.

These stats are pretty objective and don't require much engineering...when the defenseman has the puck in his own end, does he successfully move it out. Yes or no.

It's not about proving a point, but rather a reality.

 

[BrodeursCups]

Forward positioning isn't all that relevant. Good defensemen are able to make quick decisions under pressure and make a good first pass in transition. They are smooth and intelligent which often buys them extra time to make a play.

Watch guys like EK, weber, Seabrook, Keith, etc. So calm under pressure and always aware of their surroundings/ where their help is. Then you watch guys we've had over the last few years like white, sal, volch...They're not all that intelligent to be honest. They do blind ring arounds behind the net or slappers off the glass that go for icings. They instantly panic when the puck comes to them and its not good.

 

[Tundra]

How Lou paid Salvador + the 3rd year boggles my mind.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

I'm fairly sure this is an even strength only analysis.

Find where he says that.

He even cites PP and PK specifically;

The one exception here is Mark Giordano of the Calgary Flames. It is actually kind of surprising that he struggled so much to exit the zone because his offensive skill set isn't bad and he played considerable minutes on both Calgary's power play and penalty killing units.

 

[Cowbell232]

These stats are pretty objective and don't require much engineering...when the defenseman has the puck in his own end, does he successfully move it out. Yes or no.

It's not about proving a point, but rather a reality.

And the reality is that you need physical defenders in this NHL, even if they can't move the puck as well. Yes, the NHL is changing to be far more about speed and skill, but it's not completely there yet.

And it also shows how underrated Mark Fayne is.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Find where he says that.

He even cites PP and PK specifically;

He doesn't say it, that's just a logical assumption from anyone who is versed on statistical analysis in hockey. A typical zone exit does not exist in specialty team situations.

The quote about Giordano was meant to evidence his supposed offensive and defensive prowess. He gets loads of PP and PK time, ipso facto, he's probably good in his own end and moving the puck.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

And the reality is that you need physical defenders in this NHL, even if they can't move the puck as well. Yes, the NHL is changing to be far more about speed and skill, but it's not completely there yet.

And it also shows how underrated Mark Fayne is.

Why is that a reality?

 

[DatBoyJPP]

There's also some confirmation bias in bringing this up to this board, and it's proving some posters' points to an extreme.

I'm not commenting on these players in particular, but I'm saying in general, you can find stats to prove what you want.

Find me a stat proving Volchenkov is a PMD

 

[JimEIV]

Puck moving defensemen have to dig pucks out of the corners too. The difference is that they are able to effectively move it up the ice.

And when a shut down defenseman wins a puck battle in the corner, shoots it up the boards, and turns it back over to the other team, even if the puck is now in a less dangerous area of the ice, I don't like counting that as a "win". The same play will occur, with the opponent it dumping it back in, and eventually they will win that puck battle and get chances.

I'd rather have defensemen that can control the puck and advance the play into the opponent's offensize zone.

How often do you see a more rugged defender do all the work in the corner and reverse the puck to his skating partner who advances it out of the zone -- Or to a waiting winger? The measurable is just void of the reality of the game. There is a need for those players that do the heavy lifting in the corners... and they are being measured in this instance by something they are not intended to do. It would like trying to claim the best offensive lineman is the one with the best 40 yard dash speed. In my mind this is that ridiculous.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

How often do you see a more rugged defender do all the work in the corner and reverse the puck to his skating partner who advances it out of the zone -- Or to a waiting winger? The measurable is just void of the reality of the game. There is a need for those players that do the heavy lifting in the corners... and they are being measured in this instance by something they are not intended to do. It would like trying to claim the best offensive lineman is the one with the best 40 yard dash speed. In my mind this is that ridiculous.

You are right - typically guys like Volchenkov dig it out, and reverse it to their partner.

However, a guy like Erik Karlsson can dig it out just as well as Volchenkov - in fact, even better, because he gets to the puck before the on rushing forechecker. He doesn't have to battle for it.

Stay at home defensemen make their lives harder because of their lack of speed and puck handling ability. So it's odd to have people then praise a defender like Volchenkov for winning battles, when often times, puck moving defenseman don't even need to have those battles in the first place. The puck is already going the other way, or it's been in the neutral zone or the offensive zone the entire time because possession wasn't broken.

 

[Cowbell232]

Why is that a reality?

Because Lou's old school? Because you need to keep your opponents 'honest'. Because that's the way it is right now, you need guys who lay a big hit. Do I think the Devils need more than 1? Do they need to pay them that much? No, but it is what it is.

Find me a stat proving Volchenkov is a PMD

He touches the puck. It moves. Sometimes it moves the wrong way, but he moves it.

How often do you see a more rugged defender do all the work in the corner and reverse the puck to his skating partner who advances it out of the zone -- Or to a waiting winger? The measurable is just void of the reality of the game. There is a need for those players that do the heavy lifting in the corners... and they are being measured in this instance by something they are not intended to do. It would like trying to claim the best offensive lineman is the one with the best 40 yard dash speed. In my mind this is that ridiculous.

So you also need to look at Zone Exit Assists? That's actually probably a good stat too.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I should add: if puck possession were fixed, like it is in basketball, then I would agree with KovyLove. If the puck had to spend 50% of the time in each end, then yes, guys like Volchenkov would have more value.

However, hockey is not a static game. Defenders of stay-at-homers harp on their ability to win battles in the defensive zone, however the less of those battles that occur the better.

 

[Getzo5]

This is why I`m happy that all of our recent draft picks are physical and good skaters at the same time. Merrill/Scarlett aren`t but his smarts and skills make up for it. And Helgeson is a perfect example of how can a SAH defenseman be efficient in today`s hockey. Why? Because he`s not a grenade handler who`s slow as molasses, despite his big frame.

You are right - typically guys like Volchenkov dig it out, and reverse it to their partner.

However, a guy like Erik Karlsson can dig it out just as well as Volchenkov - in fact, even better, because he gets to the puck before the on rushing forechecker. He doesn't have to battle for it.

Stay at home defensemen make their lives harder because of their lack of speed and puck handling ability. So it's odd to have people then praise a defender like Volchenkov for winning battles, when often times, puck moving defenseman don't even need to have those battles in the first place. The puck is already going the other way, or it's been in the neutral zone or the offensive zone the entire time because possession wasn't broken.

Very well said.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Because Lou's old school? Because you need to keep your opponents 'honest'. Because that's the way it is right now, you need guys who lay a big hit. Do I think the Devils need more than 1? Do they need to pay them that much? No, but it is what it is.


So you also need to look at Zone Exit Assists? That's actually probably a good stat too.

Your argument seems hinged on "it is, just because it is." I'm not very convinced. An increasing volume of evidence continually points to how important puck posession is. Defenders like Volchenkov and Salvador directly hinder puck possession.

As I said, I don't consider battling for the puck in the corner and reversing it to your partner an impressive play. Smaller puck movers can do that as well, the difference is that they can get their sooner and reverse the puck more efficiently, without having to battle as much for it.

I know we all love to crap on Paul Martin, but he was one of the best Devils' defenders I've ever seen at winning the puck down low. And he didn't do it with size or physicality. He was faster (although awkward looking his stride), smarter, and craftier than the opposing forwards, which allowed him to more efficiently get the puck out.

 

[Getzo5]

And the reality is that you need physical defenders in this NHL, even if they can't move the puck as well. Yes, the NHL is changing to be far more about speed and skill, but it's not completely there yet.

And it also shows how underrated Mark Fayne is.

We`re not there yet, but we`re certainly getting closer.

The role of an enforcer is a similar topic, actually.

And yes, it`s nice to see Fayne get some praise. Take that, haters!

 

[Richer's Ghost]

So what this analysis really says is how stupid the trapezoid is and how it forced a team built on a puck moving goaltender to change for the worse because the defense that used to be mid boards to take the pass from Marty now has to go twice as far into their zone and work twice as hard to get the puck out.

 

[Cowbell232]

Your argument seems hinged on "it is, just because it is." I'm not very convinced. An increasing volume of evidence continually points to how important puck posession is. Defenders like Volchenkov and Salvador directly hinder puck possession.

As I said, I don't consider battling for the puck in the corner and reversing it to your partner an impressive play. Smaller puck movers can do that as well, the difference is that they can get their sooner and reverse the puck more efficiently, without having to battle as much for it.

That's correct. Look at what teams do, and it's just 'the way it is'. You used to have 3+ of these guys though, right? I'm just saying you need 1, maybe 2. We have too many weak puck-movers on this team. I'm agreeing with you in that regard, but I'm not sold on getting rid of a guy like Volchenkov simply to move the puck better. He's paid too much, and frequently got too many minutes, but that physical aspect has a place in our game.

 

[Getzo5]

So what this analysis really says is how stupid the trapezoid is and how it forced a team built on a puck moving goaltender to change for the worse because the defense that used to be mid boards to take the pass from Marty now has to go twice as far into their zone and work twice as hard to get the puck out.

#BlameBettman

 

[JimEIV]

I like to think there is something to synergy and people in the proper role making a complete team.

 

[Cowbell232]

I know we all love to crap on Paul Martin, but he was one of the best Devils' defenders I've ever seen at winning the puck down low. And he didn't do it with size or physicality. He was faster (although awkward looking his stride), smarter, and craftier than the opposing forwards, which allowed him to more efficiently get the puck out.

Overwhelming agreed on Paul Martin. I didn't realize how good he was until he wasn't here any more. I'm glad we didn't give him that contract, but I'm not happy to see him gone either.

His stick work was also underrated by a lot of people, which lead to him striping to the puck and moving it forward a lot.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

This is why I`m happy that all of our recent draft picks are physical and good skaters at the same time. Merrill/Scarlett aren`t but his smarts and skills make up for it. And Helgeson is a perfect example of how can a SAH defenseman be efficient in today`s hockey. Why? Because he`s not a grenade handler who`s slow as molasses, despite his big frame.

Very well said.

Helgeson is a perfect example of what I wasn't sure how to say about Scuderi/Girardi. "Puck-moving" and "offensive" don't have to mean the same thing. Girardi or Scuderi aren't going to skate the puck out of the zone, but they're guys who are smart enough to move the puck to someone that CAN after they win it.

You can still have a team of big, strong defensemen without having to rely on players like Volchenkov and Salvador.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

That's correct. Look at what teams do, and it's just 'the way it is'. You used to have 3+ of these guys though, right? I'm just saying you need 1, maybe 2. We have too many weak puck-movers on this team. I'm agreeing with you in that regard, but I'm not sold on getting rid of a guy like Volchenkov simply to move the puck better. He's paid too much, and frequently got too many minutes, but that physical aspect has a place in our game.

Right, but the market isn't efficient. There is an optimal way to structure your team given the context of the league at the time, however most teams will be behind the curve. The Devils are currently behind the curve.

We are ahead of the curve in some respects. DeBoer's coaching system, which is predicated on pinching and a strong forecheck, is the way to go. We just need some better personnel.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

So what this analysis really says is how stupid the trapezoid is and how it forced a team built on a puck moving goaltender to change for the worse because the defense that used to be mid boards to take the pass from Marty now has to go twice as far into their zone and work twice as hard to get the puck out.

I don't disagree with this.

 

[Oroku Saki*]

You're also actually penalizing players that dig the puck out of corners...Which are dangerous areas of the ice...So a stay at home guy who actually gains possession which should be a mark in the win column, and ends up sending the puck into a non-dangerous area of the ice, which should also go in the win column....Is being measured as a failure. It's stupid.

Agreed. For example if Salvador goes into a board battle and gains possession while still being "tied" up but still manages to move the puck up along the wall but his support cannot clear, does that go in a negative column?

 

[Cowbell232]

Right, but the market isn't efficient. There is an optimal way to structure your team given the context of the league at the time, however most teams will be behind the curve. The Devils are currently behind the curve.

We are ahead of the curve in some respects. DeBoer's coaching system, which is predicated on pinching and a strong forecheck, is the way to go. We just need some better personnel.

I think that you're right in that we're behind the curve in terms of pure numbers. But the fact of the matter is this team still almost won a Stanley Cup last year. I think we're in agreement of where the game is going, but you're just trying to get it there quicker than I am.