Player Discussion How overpaid is Tavares

[rojac]

Fans will love him even more when he signs a very reasonable extension. Not sure if it will be long-term or short-term, but it won't be a big number. He will take a discount56

The longer the deal the lower the AAV is likely to be. I'm not sure I see it going lower than 4-5M given the expected cap increases for the the next several years. That would be for 6 or 7 years. For 3 or 4 years, I would expect around 6-7M.

 

[Nineteen67]

They are a Cup contender this season in part because of Tavares.

I think they’re far too slow and still have big questions at the top end of the lineup, and D. Expecting guys to play with a skill they don’t have is concerning.

 

[Fogelhund]

I was on board to re-signing him at a much lower cap hit after this season, but I think the best solution for the Leafs would be to completely move on from JT. Way too slow for today’s NHL and he’s become a turnover machine.

He sucks, legit do not want him back, guys so slow and a complete non-factor in almost every game. I'd much rather give a younger guy a shot at 2C, unless he signs for like 3M and agrees to play in the bottom 6 only, let him walk after this.

Tavares isnt worth 7.5M his 2023-2024 season as a whole is around maybe 6M in value

He was worth 7.5M last year and 8M the year before

He is a grinder who doesnt produce much now

He has also been a poor playoff performer his whole career with the leafs and we will see if his decline carries onto their as well

Leafs would be a better team without Tavares next year. Unfortunately have the cap anchor one more year

Dubas liked skill and speed.Dubas signed Tavares? We must convince Tavares to retire and go upstairs. We can't pay a 3c that money, no one can.

Tavares decline because of his age and lack of speed is very pronounced and he is lucky who he plays with. You are looking at 49 pts next year of easily replaceable production. That contract is the difference. No team would pay that nor could they. He needs to retire.

For one season. There are many centers out there @ 5.5 or below (preferably a younger one) who can keep up and gel with Nylander. I would rather have Domi extended paired with a defensive LW than the slow footed overpaid JT moving forward.

He's clearly declining rapidly. Next year's going to be a scary year with that contract. He might be at the level Spezza was at, when Spezza played here.

But in game 2, he at least battles for everything. He does want it, he just can't at this point. He's getting easy to knock off the puck as well, which is concerning.

Maxi Domi was a notably better #2C when he got that opportunity.

Tavares is a liability at 3c , especially in the playoffs. Those wheels are heavy and a problem. Even at 4c.

This dude is straight dog ass.

Not even at 1M should he be a leaf after this year

He's not worth a league min.

He is like a league minimum guy now with some patches bonus framework to get him to 1.5m. That's all I see and I would rather close the book and send him off.

Wouldn't take for league minimum

He's basically at Spezza level when Spezza got here.

They better walk from him on July 1st unless he's taking the league minimum.

I’d put Domi ahead of JT in terms of on-ice impact, and Domi went for $3.75x5 as a UFA. Domi is a WAY better skater, more dynamic with the puck, makes more happen at even strength, I slightly prefer him on the PP too, and I think the 2 are a wash defensively.

I’d put McMann roughly on par with JT, and he went for $1.35x2 as a UFA, though that was definitely a steal.

Overall I think his fair market value is about $3 mil AAV, so he’s about $8 mil AAV overpaid IMO. I’d be cool with signing him to a short term deal at $3 mil AAV, but wouldn’t want to go long term at that cap, as he’s clearly declining. But if he’s getting ~$4-5 mil offers from other teams, and wants us to match, we should just walk, we can get better players for that price.

Tavares as a 4c, Id worry about that in the playoffs right now. He is the slowest skater in the league. I do not want Tavares for league minimum.

Fun thread. It's nice to see Tavares shooting % rebound this year. He's been an important part of the team, and hopefully he extends at a level that allows us to build... I've maintained that's $3.5-5 million, though as a UFA he'd get more.

""

 

[Roo]

He’s definitely playing better than prior years. Likely a result of being in a contract year. Amazing how that always seems to happen.

 

[WillyC]

Outside of McD and Drai… Tavares is the best 2C in the NHL.

 

[thewave]

Fun thread. It's nice to see Tavares shooting % rebound this year. He's been an important part of the team, and hopefully he extends at a level that allows us to build... I've maintained that's $3.5-5 million, though as a UFA he'd get more.

""

He was legit trash until he found the amulet. Look we got drones from the ocean flying around, weird crap in the skies, NFL quarterbacks admitting his wife is a witch and that's why he is winning. Cant tell men from women and now we got Amulets. I don't care if he is crushing cans on his head and blood doping with pig stem cells.

Winning is all that matters! And being able to tell women from men to avoid awkward moments. I am old man!

 

[Fogelhund]

He was legit trash until he found the amulet.

He wasn't. People were just triggered. We have a lot of posters like that.

 

[MSZ]

If we're strictly talking about his career average (11M is overpaid), last season he had a down year, the year before that he had 80 pts. If he hits 80 pts again as a 34 yrs old this should be considered a very good season for him.

 

[Evilhomer]

I think they’re far too slow and still have big questions at the top end of the lineup, and D. Expecting guys to play with a skill they don’t have is concerning.

If the Leafs aren't a Cup contender in your mind, then which teams are?

 

[thewave]

He wasn't. People were just triggered. We have a lot of posters like that.

He couldn't even skate for a time. Then last year he was a fader. Wasn't there reportedly some gene therapy being done? He was awfully slow and had no production for the first 10 games. Regardless SOME posters will want an extension with term.

It will be the wrong thing to do and our odds of pulling a cup in 3years are pretty slim as is.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Hopefully we can lock him up around the 9.5-10 mil mark.

 

[Fogelhund]

He couldn't even skate for a time. Then last year he was a fader. Wasn't there reportedly some gene therapy being done? He was awfully slow and had no production for the first 10 games. Regardless SOME posters will want an extension with term.

It will be the wrong thing to do and our odds of pulling a cup in 3years are pretty slim as is.

He should absolutely be extended. He is easily the best C available on the market this year, and letting him go, for Gourde, or Granlund would make the team worse. Plus, he'll be the only one who "might" consider a discount.

He had no production for the first 10 games? You mean, 11 points in 10 games was no production?

 

[Nineteen67]

If the Leafs aren't a Cup contender in your mind, then which teams are?

You must have high end skilled talent , a few committed grinders, solid D and goaltending. The Leafs lack in every category.

 

[AvroArrow]

Fun thread. It's nice to see Tavares shooting % rebound this year. He's been an important part of the team, and hopefully he extends at a level that allows us to build... I've maintained that's $3.5-5 million, though as a UFA he'd get more.

""

Leave me alone LOL

At the time I made that comment, it was warranted. He has obviously stuck it to all of us (And i'm happy)

I feel like having the C change revitalized him. Maybe it lit a fire under his ass or maybe just less pressure, but he looks as good as he did when he first joined us scoring 47G.

 

[ponder]

Fun thread. It's nice to see Tavares shooting % rebound this year. He's been an important part of the team, and hopefully he extends at a level that allows us to build... I've maintained that's $3.5-5 million, though as a UFA he'd get more.

""

He’s been great this year, will 100% admit I was much too low on him.

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

Players earn the right to play where they want to play. The assumption that every player who comes from Toronto should want to play in Toronto just seems remarkably simplistic to me. Not evrybody wants to hang around their family or their childhood friends for their whole life. A player may not like the team's management or coaching style or they may not feel that the role the team wants them to play is right for them. Or they may simply feel that their chance of winning a Cup is greater elsewhere. Or perhaps their wife and family prefer to live somewhere else. Human beings, even hockey players, are complex creatures and may have many different resaons for the decisions they make. The idea that all players from the Toronto area who don't come back to Toronto to play for Leafs are doing so because they fear the spotlight just seems ridiculous and a little insulting to those players.

Who cares?? But ok cool, Mr perfect nuanced apologist --> At the very least, agree to have an equally sized soft spot for those that DO make the difficult choice to come here. If you ain't pulling for this guy for that reason alone, then we just ain't the same blood type.

 

[Evilhomer]

You must have high end skilled talent , a few committed grinders, solid D and goaltending. The Leafs lack in every category.

Pretty crappy team for 6th overall in the league, I guess.

 

[Fogelhund]

Leave me alone LOL

At the time I made that comment, it was warranted. He has obviously stuck it to all of us (And i'm happy)

I feel like having the C change revitalized him. Maybe it lit a fire under his ass or maybe just less pressure, but he looks as good as he did when he first joined us scoring 47G.

It wasn't warranted at the time. He wasn't at his peak, some of it due to shooting percentage, but most certainly this wasn't true, and part of a herd mentality blame game.

He sucks, legit do not want him back, guys so slow and a complete non-factor in almost every game. I'd much rather give a younger guy a shot at 2C, unless he signs for like 3M and agrees to play in the bottom 6 only, let him walk after this.

 

[ToneDog]

Leave me alone LOL

At the time I made that comment, it was warranted. He has obviously stuck it to all of us (And i'm happy)

I feel like having the C change revitalized him. Maybe it lit a fire under his ass or maybe just less pressure, but he looks as good as he did when he first joined us scoring 47G.

He was great last night but that Sabres defense was softer than the Pillsbury dough boy last night, Levi was MEH and the Sabres have lost 10 in a row. Let's see you do that against the Panthers in May before we talk contract.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Haven't we seen this movie before? Great stretch during the season and ultimately finishes with solid numbers, and then completely fades in the playoffs? It looked like he couldn't keep up at times, and 3 points in his last 11 playoff games are proof. I hope it's different this year (amulet power?!)

He is going to turn 35 before he plays a game on his next contract. If he puts up another dud in the playoffs, how can you justify brining him back? I'd pump the brakes for now.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Regular season hockey is NOT playoff hockey .. guys unfortunately get paid on regular season stats .. JT can't keep up to playoff hockey .. he has got a bit faster this year but this is pre XMS hockey .. I'd wait to see how he does at end of season hockey .. in fact I'd wait til playoffs are over before getting serious about a contract .. my gut says he will look very slow again as we get into March as game pace picks up .. anything over $3M per longer term and I would pass .. even if it means going longer term .. sure you can move him to LW to extend his term

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Regular season hockey is NOT playoff hockey .. guys unfortunately get paid on regular season stats .. JT can't keep up to playoff hockey .. he has got a bit faster this year but this is pre XMS hockey .. I'd wait to see how he does at end of season hockey .. in fact I'd wait til playoffs are over before getting serious about a contract .. my gut says he will look very slow again as we get into March as game pace picks up .. anything over $3M per longer term and I would pass .. even if it means going longer term .. sure you can move him to LW to extend his term

Big Facts.

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

Haven't we seen this movie before? Great stretch during the season and ultimately finishes with solid numbers, and then completely fades in the playoffs? It looked like he couldn't keep up at times, and 3 points in his last 11 playoff games are proof. I hope it's different this year (amulet power?!)

He is going to turn 35 before he plays a game on his next contract. If he puts up another dud in the playoffs, how can you justify brining him back? I'd pump the brakes for now.

Literally last night, he just became the oldest Leaf ever to score a hat trick. He might even beat his own record - this year..!! Hahaaaa...
We're witnessing history yall, and cuz we're all PTSD'd from the playoffs where we missed by a literal single shot or two 11-teen times, it's always gotta be someone's 'fault' - and we can't just go, dang - we got John f***in Tavares out here killing it as a Leaf!??!

 

[Fogelhund]

He is going to turn 35 before he plays a game on his next contract. If he puts up another dud in the playoffs, how can you justify brining him back? I'd pump the brakes for now.

Gourde, Granlund, Dvorak and Bennett are your next best C's, that "might" get to UFA.

Bennett is the only one you might argue about being equal of Tavares... If you could sign Bennett, and keep Tavares, it would make for a pretty deep team down the middle, but it would have to be affordable to do so. I have a hard time imagining where Florida doesn't extend him, as he's been an important piece for them...but there is the cap.

The cap is supposed to go up by $4.4 mil next year, and they've already extended Verhaeghe with an increase $2.833. So, barring trading away someone, they have approx $1.566 mil left in pay increases, to extend Bennett, Ekblad, both Boqvists, and Schmidt.

The max Florida can offer Bennett, if Ekblad extends at his current $7.5, would be $6 mil. I'm not saying Ekblad would accept that... but to sign Bennett, you probably have to go to $7-$7.5 mil, or he'd just take the $6 mil in Florida. I like Bennett, and his all around game, but he is prone to missing time, and is a career high 49 points, though he may eclipse that this year (26 points in 30 games) ... and be in line for a bigger payday as a UFA. (and if he does, someone is going to deeply regret that).

If Bennett gets 70 points this year, someone signs him for $8-9 mil if he goes UFA, and he's likely to regress back down to 40-50 points.

 

[ponder]

Also, for ppl looking at his raw point totals, and thinking he's playing at a similar level to last year, for me the big difference is his even strength play. For awhile it seemed like he was tailing off at even strength, year after year - becoming a guy who didn't generate much at ES, more of a passenger there, depended more on the PP. Similar to what has happened to Stamkos. While this year, he really does seem to be a consistent line driver at even strength, a guy creating quality ES offence consistently.

The above is based on the eye test, but also stats. For example, some key ES stats for JT, last year vs. this year:

• ES points/60 mins:
  • This year, 2nd on the team, and 1st among guys with a lot of games played (2.45 ES PTS/60): NHL Stats
  • Last year, 8th on the team (1.90 ES PTS/60): NHL Stats
• Total ES points:
  • This year, 2nd on the team (23 in 30 GP, 0.77 ES PPG): NHL Stats
  • Last year, tied for 4th/5th on the team (45 in 80 GP, 0.56 ES PPG): NHL Stats
• On-ice expected goals % (from NHL Player Statistics -Advanced Stats 2024-2025 )
  • This year, 2nd on the team (57.4%)
  • Last year, 6th on the team (53.5%)

His ES PPG is up 37% vs. last year, from 0.56 ES PPG to 0.77 ES PPG, that's a big shift. And to me it's even more noticeable to the eye test than that, he's gone from being an ES passenger to an ES line driver. He seems to be able to compete harder all game long than he did last year, more pep in his skating, and is beating guys 1:1 this year a lot more than last year, at least to my eyes. He's back to playing like a legit star forward at even strength, which I love to see!

I expected him to continue to decline this year, but it's been just the opposite, he's bounced back in a big way. Very happy to be proven wrong here!