How much worse were the 12-13 Devils than the 11-12 Devils?

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

shootout goals are being counted in the stats?

Well that renders them basically useless. Silly to do that. 1 goal should be recorded at most for a shootout win or loss.

Not for individual players, but as far as I'm aware a team will get an extra GF if they secure a shootout win (instead of a 2-2 tie, it's a 3-2 win).

 

[JimEIV]

Right, a 25 goal difference.

The 11-12 Devils allowed 27 short handed goals. The 12-13 Devils were on pace to allow 54 short handed goals, a 27 goal difference. Granted the 12-13 Devils spent a bit more time in the box, however the difference is just as large.

Swap the penalty kill save percentages of the 11-12 and 12-13 teams and they're identical from a goal differential standpoint.

Besides ignoring the goal scored differential...

You keep ignoring the fact that both teams literally gave up the same EXACT amount goals over the two season.

 

[billingtons ghost]

The goaltending was definitely a massive issue. They both gave up deflating goal after deflating goal. Marty was fine earlier on but was awful after he got back from the injury.

You are just plain wrong here.

Here's how many goals our team scored after Marty came back from injury:
4 (then Kovy goes down)
2(W),2,4,2,1,0,1,2,4,0,0,3(W),6(W),1,3(W)


You can argue that maybe he should have gotten a W in the 5-4 shootout L, or maybe the 5-4 nutty loss against Boston, but both of those games were train wrecks. (Tampa scored with :15 left. Boston went up 4-0 early)

It is tough to win with 0, 1 or 2 goals in any league.

 

[JimEIV]

Not for individual players, but as far as I'm aware a team will get an extra GF if they secure a shootout win (instead of a 2-2 tie, it's a 3-2 win).

Yes..The actual in 2011-12 was 216, column GF shows to 228 = 12 shootout wins.


I didn't know this was counted this way.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

our goalies had the 3rd worst SV% in the league last year.

anyone saying goaltending wasn't an issue didn't pay attention.

 

[JimEIV]

our goalies had the 3rd worst SV% in the league last year.

anyone saying goaltending wasn't an issue didn't pay attention.

And somehow, some way... they gave up the SAME EXACT AMOUNT OF GOALS in BOTH YEARS


2011-12 GA 2.50
2012-13 GA 2.54

 

[Richer's Ghost]

you mean in a lockout shortened year as the full year before?

That's not the same, and it's not a good thing.

 

[JimEIV]

you mean in a lockout shortened year as the full year before?

That's not the same, and it's not a good thing.

No, the Goals Allowed per game this season were identical to the 2011-12...Exactly the same.

So if we allowed the same amount of goals per game the last two seasons, isn't the logical thought that scoring was the issue in missing the playoffs? Nope, it was the PK and PP SV%

 

[Bleedred]

Yup we were on pace to give up just 2 more goals in 82 games in 12-13 than what we gave up in 11-12.

Biggest difference was the penalty killing there. Penalty killing was fantastic in 11-12. Penalty killing was mediocre in 12-13, but at even strength we were better defensively/goaltending.

 

[JimEIV]

Yup we were on pace to give up just 2 more goals in 82 games in 12-13 than what we gave up in 11-12.

Biggest difference was the penalty killing there. Penalty killing was fantastic in 11-12. Penalty killing was mediocre in 12-13, but at even strength we were better defensively/goaltending.

But if you're allowing the same amount of Goals Against both season, how can penalty killing be a major issue?


If you allow 10 goals a season with 100% PK or you allow 10 goals a season with 0% PK what the hell is the difference? You allowed 10 goals, Does it matter if they are shorthanded, even strength, pp...upside down with one arm? You STILL allowed 10 goals...Edit: And You'll probably need score 15 or more to have a decent record.

 

[billingtons ghost]

our goalies had the 3rd worst SV% in the league last year.

anyone saying goaltending wasn't an issue didn't pay attention.

Didn't say 'it wasn't an issue'.

Just pointed out that to say that 'Marty was terrible when he came back from injury' is complete bunk. He wasn't the reason we went on a 10 game losing streak and missed the playoffs.

The top 6 disappearing was more of the reason for that.

 

[billingtons ghost]

During that streak to end the season (after Marty came back and Kovy went down), our opponents scored this many goals:

1(W), 1(W), 2(+shootout), 4(+so), 2(+so), 3, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 2, 2, 0(W), 2(W), 4(L), 2(W)

Tampa is the 4, Boston is the 5 - which were disasters - and the 4 by the Rags sucked.

In every other case he gave his team a chance to win. They just didn't step up.

 

[Bleedred]

But if you're allowing the same amount of Goals Against both season, how can penalty killing be a major issue?


If you allow 10 goals a season with 100% PK or you allow 10 goals a season with 0% PK what the hell is the difference? You allowed 10 goals, Does it matter if they are shorthanded, even strength, pp...upside down with one arm? You STILL allowed 10 goals...Edit: And You'll probably need score 15 or more to have a decent record.

I agree with you. It doesn't really matter if the goals were given up at even strength or shorthanded. We were on pace to score 25 fewer goals this year, and that was the biggest difference. That's not including the goal you get for winning a shootout either.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Our defense was much worse than the stats suggest, Hedberg was outrageously bad, Brodeur was "meh" at best, Lou and the coaching staff made some awful personnel decisions, and we had abysmal goal support.

I think that about covers it.

 

[JimEIV]

I agree with you. It doesn't really matter if the goals were given up at even strength or shorthanded. We were on pace to score 25 fewer goals this year, and that was the biggest difference. That's not including the goal you get for winning a shootout either.

Absolutely... and this goes to heart of the question of whether or not we are a better team....picking up 30 extra goals from 9 players spread over 4 lines is a helluva lot easier than relying on that production from 2 players on 1 line.

 

[Bleedred]

Our defense was much worse than the stats suggest, Hedberg was outrageously bad, Brodeur was "meh" at best, Lou and the coaching staff made some awful personnel decisions, and we had abysmal goal support.

I think that about covers it.

I'm on board with that. The 8 defensemen thing didn't help, I would argue it hurt more than helped. Some of the lineup decisions too during some games.

 

[MartyOwns]

Our defense was much worse than the stats suggest, Hedberg was outrageously bad, Brodeur was "meh" at best, Lou and the coaching staff made some awful personnel decisions, and we had abysmal goal support.

I think that about covers it.

this sums it up pretty well

 

[MJB Devils23*]

Our defense was much worse than the stats suggest, Hedberg was outrageously bad, Brodeur was "meh" at best, Lou and the coaching staff made some awful personnel decisions, and we had abysmal goal support.

I think that about covers it.

I would like to hear why you think our defense wasn't that good.

 

[Bleedred]

I would like to hear why you think our defense wasn't that good.

It wasn't bad or anything, but all that inconsistency in the lineup didn't help it IMO. We also had some vets (On forward as well late in the season) who would be in the lineup over better players.

 

[MJB Devils23*]

It wasn't bad or anything, but all that inconsistency in the lineup didn't help it IMO. We also had some vets (On forward as well late in the season) who would be in the lineup over better players.

Larsson and Fayne got shafted big time last year. It was irritating. I truly believe we have a top ten defense this year.

 

[Benedict Parisechuk]

You are just plain wrong here.

Here's how many goals our team scored after Marty came back from injury:
4 (then Kovy goes down)
2(W),2,4,2,1,0,1,2,4,0,0,3(W),6(W),1,3(W)


You can argue that maybe he should have gotten a W in the 5-4 shootout L, or maybe the 5-4 nutty loss against Boston, but both of those games were train wrecks. (Tampa scored with :15 left. Boston went up 4-0 early)

It is tough to win with 0, 1 or 2 goals in any league.

It wasn't the amount of goals he was giving up, it was kinds of goals he was giving up which were deflating, Mr. Softee's half the time. We were continuously limiting teams to 15-25 shots a game and STILL losing. That mainly points to the goaltending being an issue but yea the offense obviously didn't do there jobs either.

 

[NJDevs26]

If you allow 10 goals a season with 100% PK or you allow 10 goals a season with 0% PK what the hell is the difference? You allowed 10 goals, Does it matter if they are shorthanded, even strength, pp...upside down with one arm? You STILL allowed 10 goals...Edit: And You'll probably need score 15 or more to have a decent record.

When he's right he's right. Or like someone else said the goaltending was worse and the defense was better from '11-12's regular season so it balanced out in GAA. Not to mention they 'had' to play more defensive to compensate for the lack of offense - another thing stats don't tell.

No amount of metrics will convince me the main differences between those teams weren't the offense/no Parise and the shootout record - which to a degree is a function of luck, but when the goaltending is worse period, one of our shootout aces (17) isn't doing as well all-around as he did in '11-12 and the other one (9) was already gone, the SO record is going to get worse, luck or no luck.

 

[Bleedred]

When he's right he's right. Or like someone else said the goaltending was worse and the defense was better from '11-12's regular season so it balanced out in GAA. Not to mention they 'had' to play more defensive to compensate for the lack of offense - another thing stats don't tell.

No amount of metrics will convince me the main differences between those teams weren't the offense/no Parise and the shootout record - which to a degree is a function of luck, but when the goaltending is worse period, one of our shootout aces (17) isn't doing as well all-around as he did in '11-12 and the other one (9) was already gone, the SO record is going to get worse, luck or no luck.

Yup in the shootout we went like 6 for 29. That's just astronomically bad. I wonder if anyone else had a lower conversion percentage on the shootout than that? That's averaging 0.67 goals scored in each shootout. 6 in 9 shootouts.

The goaltending was really bad too, but the shooting was much worse. As horrible as the goaltending was, the shooting percentage didn't even come near it. In one of the shootouts we won, we needed Moose to stop all 3 shooters too.

 

[billingtons ghost]

It wasn't the amount of goals he was giving up, it was kinds of goals he was giving up which were deflating, Mr. Softee's half the time. We were continuously limiting teams to 15-25 shots a game and STILL losing. That mainly points to the goaltending being an issue but yea the offense obviously didn't do there jobs either.

In 6 of the 16 I listed (~40%?), he would have had to post a shutout to win. In 10 of 16 he would have had to be near perfect, only giving up one goal max.

Dude, even if it was a softie - having to be perfect when your defense is playing pretty awful hockey is a lot to ask. Please show me a goalie with a GAA under 1.00 who shuts out his opponents 31 games a year.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I would like to hear why you think our defense wasn't that good.

It was above average, but it wasn't the best in the league. They had severe problems with covering the front of the net. Blown coverage and poor anticipation lead to a lot of prime scoring opportunities in the slot, and the forwards didn't do a good enough job covering.

Part of that is on the coaching staff for giving Volchenkov, Salvador, and Harrold more ice time than the should have, but most is on them for just being not good. Our shots against stat was partially inflated because of the shortened season.