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How much worse were the 12-13 Devils than the 11-12 Devils?

JimEIV said:
So essentially the Pk and the shootout was the difference ...both areas Parise played a critical role in...the previous year...

Why don't you breakdown of both years Pk minutes ...that would show who replaced who and where deficit was...Gionta comes to mind first...

Same for the shootout...where was the deficit? Yes, Kovalchuk's shootout numbers were unsustainable, but that alone shouldn't have been the issue...goaltending and secondary scoring must be the issue...

Both case are directly related to the loss of Parise.
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The Devils would have likely missed the playoffs even with Parise.

Kovalchuk's shootout numbers are the main issue. He went from 11-14 to 2-6. Over an 82 game season Kovalchuk was on pace to lose 7 shootout goals. Combine that with inferior shootout goaltending and you have the problem. Elias also went 2-8 last season, below his career norms. Losing Parise hurt a bit in the shootout, but even with his 3-6 numbers from last year, the Devils still would have been awful in the shootout.

Parise was a big component of the PK, but losing a single forward does not turn your PK from league best into average. There are typically 7-9 other skaters who play the PK consistently, and let's not forget goaltending. Moreover, our PK began reverting to the mean in the playoffs, while Parise was still on the team.
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat said:
The Devils would have likely missed the playoffs even with Parise.

Kovalchuk's shootout numbers are the main issue. He went from 11-14 to 2-6. Over an 82 game season Kovalchuk was on pace to lose 7 shootout goals. Combine that with inferior shootout goaltending and you have the problem. Elias also went 2-8 last season, below his career norms. Losing Parise hurt a bit in the shootout, but even with his 3-6 numbers from last year, the Devils still would have been awful in the shootout.

Parise was a big component of the PK, but losing a single forward does not turn your PK from league best into average. There are typically 7-9 other skaters who play the PK consistently, and let's not forget goaltending. Moreover, our PK began reverting to the mean in the playoffs, while Parise was still on the team.
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I believe the shootout is an effect not a cause...

The Devils are going to the shootout far too frequently largely due to lack of goal scoring... 2.29 Goals Per Game 28th in the league was the problem.

Their goals against were relatively decent (Goals Against Per Game 13th 2.54) -
Being better than the majority of the league should have bee enough in that regard..

It was the lack of goalscoring that was sending us to the shootout 9 times in 48 games...

Power Play Percentage 21st 15.9 - Penalty Kill Percentage 16th 81.1 - Team Shooting Percentage 26th 8.08

SCORING WAS THE PROBLEM.

But check this out.....Add 18 (Parise's goals) goals to the Devils 112 this season....at 130 that would put them Above the league average of 2.6 GPG to 2.7...

With a 2.7 goals per game and 2.54 goals against per game the scenario changes completely...You have to assume at least a few more regulation wins with that differential and a few less shootouts...That could be a swing of more than a few points.


If 2.28 GF and 2.54 GA produced a .500 record, what would have pumping up that 'Goals For' average from 2.29 to 2.7 have done?

It would have been the difference between making the playoffs or not.
 
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JimEIV said:
I believe the shootout is an effect not a cause...

The Devils are going to the shootout far too frequently largely due to lack of goal scoring... 2.29 Goals Per Game 28th in the league was the problem.

Their goals against were relatively decent (Goals Against Per Game 13th 2.54) -
Being better than the majority of the league should have bee enough in that regard..

It was the lack of goalscoring that was sending us to the shootout 9 times in 48 games...

Power Play Percentage 21st 15.9 - Penalty Kill Percentage 16th 81.1 - Team Shooting Percentage 26th 8.08

SCORING WAS THE PROBLEM.

But check this out.....Add 18 (Parise's goals) goals to the Devils 112 this season....at 130 that would put them Above the league average of 2.6 GPG to 2.7...

With a 2.7 goals per game and 2.54 goals against per game the scenario changes completely...You have to assume at least a few more regulation wins with that differential and a few less shootouts...That could be a swing of more than a few points.


If 2.28 GF and 2.54 GA produced a .500 record, what would have pumping up that 'Goals For' average from 2.29 to 2.7 have done?

It would have been the difference between making the playoffs or not.
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The Devils went to the shootout 16 times in 11-12, with Parise. The Devils were on pace to go to the shootout 15 times over an 82 game season in 12-13.

You also can't simply "add" Parise's goals, since his ice time was replaced by other skaters. Parise played 20 minutes/night. Where did they go? To other players, who inevitably scored some goals. With Parise the Devils would have scored more in 12-13, but not as much as you're insinuating.
 
It wasn't many goals, they replaced Parise with Butler/Matteau etc. Even if you want to say its a ten goal difference in a short season that's a lot considering the number of close games we played. Plus as has been well documented by some Travis hasn't yet been the same player without Zach. Henrique's play fell off dramatically too and he was centering 9 and 17 in the regular season. It's more about an x number of goal difference, replacing a big gun like 9 with stiffs has an effect up and down the lineup. You think 17 plays 26 minutes a night if Zach is still here?
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat said:
The Devils went to the shootout 16 times in 11-12, with Parise. The Devils were on pace to go to the shootout 15 times over an 82 game season in 12-13.

You also can't simply "add" Parise's goals, since his ice time was replaced by other skaters. Parise played 20 minutes/night. Where did they go? To other players, who inevitably scored some goals. With Parise the Devils would have scored more in 12-13, but not as much as you're insinuating.
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All far points, but you're still not addressing the central issue... that lack of goals that led to the upside down GF/GA differential.....

That was the sole issue.
 
In 11-12 they were +19 with 228 GF and 209 GA ....that in a nutshell is the difference... not the shootout.Or the PK for that matter.
 
NJDevs26 said:
It wasn't many goals, they replaced Parise with Butler/Matteau etc. Even if you want to say its a ten goal difference in a short season that's a lot considering the number of close games we played. Plus as has been well documented by some Travis hasn't yet been the same player without Zach. Henrique's play fell off dramatically too and he was centering 9 and 17 in the regular season. It's more about an x number of goal difference, replacing a big gun like 9 with stiffs has an effect up and down the lineup. You think 17 plays 26 minutes a night if Zach is still here?
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Kovalchuk's average TOI in NJ:

09-10- 21:40
10-11- 22:34
11-12- 24:26
12-13- 24:44

so he didnt play that much more this past year than he did 2 years ago when Zach was here.
 
I didn't think it was actually that high in '11-12, though he did have some crazy 30-minute games early in the season. Last year I do think it was around 26 when he got hurt, he left that game early and came back for the meaningless games late so I'm sure those four games ticked down the ATOI a bit.
 
JimEIV said:
In 11-12 they were +19 with 228 GF and 209 GA ....that in a nutshell is the difference... not the shootout.Or the PK for that matter.
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That is not true.

My original post showed how the shootout was an extremely large part of the issue. You can't simply ignore that analysis.

The rest of the difference in goal differential is explained by the penalty kill.

The Devils had an even strength GF/GA ratio of 0.93 in 2011-12, and 0.86 in 2012-13. They were very similar teams at even strength.

While the 12-13 Devils were worse offensively than the 11-12 Devils, they were better defensively. Both teams had the same GA numbers, however the 12-13 Devils were superior in preventing shots. But the 12-13 goalies had a worse save percentage than the 11-12 goalies. Why? Because their PK save percentage fell off a cliff.

Shorthanded save percentage:
2011-12 Devils: .920
2012-13 Devils: .828

That is the difference. Yes, the 12-13 Devils were always going to score less goals than the 11-12 team, however they counteracted this by playing a superior puck possession game than the 11-12 team. They should have been top three in goals against, which would have mitigated the offensive hit, however a poor performance on the penalty kill undermined that.

Also, remember that the GF numbers for the 11-12 Devils were exaggerated by the 12 shootout wins.
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat said:
That is not true.

My original post showed how the shootout was an extremely large part of the issue. You can't simply ignore that analysis.

The rest of the difference in goal differential is explained by the penalty kill.

The Devils had an even strength GF/GA ratio of 0.93 in 2011-12, and 0.86 in 2012-13. They were very similar teams at even strength.

While the 12-13 Devils were worse offensively than the 11-12 Devils, they were better defensively. Both teams had the same GA numbers, however the 12-13 Devils were superior in preventing shots. But the 12-13 goalies had a worse save percentage than the 11-12 goalies. Why? Because their PK save percentage fell off a cliff.

Shorthanded save percentage:
2011-12 Devils: .920
2012-13 Devils: .828

That is the difference. Yes, the 12-13 Devils were always going to score less goals than the 11-12 team, however they counteracted this by playing a superior puck possession game than the 11-12 team. They should have been top three in goals against, which would have mitigated the offensive hit, however a poor performance on the penalty kill undermined that.

Also, remember that the GF numbers for the 11-12 Devils were exaggerated by the 12 shootout wins.
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This makes no sense to me ...

The Devils GA was actually the exact same in both years 2011-12 209 GA = 2.50
in 2012-13 it was 129 GA = 2.54 ---


It was exactly the same! The difference between the two years is the 'Goals FOR' and the differential.


2011-12 = GF 2.63 - GA 2.50 - Differential +19
2012-13 = GF 2.29 - GA 2.54 - Differential -17

How can penalty killing make any difference whatsoever when they were giving up the same EXACT amount of goals in each season? The Goals For is the glaring issue...Shootout and Penalty Kill don't even factor.
 
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JimEIV said:
This makes no sense to me ...

The Devils GA was actually the exact same in both years 2011-12 209 GA = 2.50
in 2012-13 it was 129 GA = 2.54 ---


It was exactly the same! The difference between the two years is the 'Goals FOR' and the differential.


2011-12 = GF 2.63 - GA 2.50 - Differential +19
2012-13 = GF 2.29 - GA 2.54 - Differential -17

How can penalty killing make any difference whatsoever when they were giving up the same EXACT amount of goals in each season? The Goals For is the glaring issue...Shootout and Penalty Kill don't even factor.
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11-12 Goals Against:
ES: 155 (75.6%)
PP: 12 (5.9%)
SH: 27 (13.2%)
EN: 10 (4.9%)
PS: 1 (0.5%)
Total: 205

12-13 Goals Against:
ES: 79 (64.8%)
PP: 6 (4.9%)
SH: 32 (26.2%)
EN: 5 (4.1%)
PS: 0
Total: 122

In totality the Devils allowed the same amount of goals against, however how they allowed them was much different. The Devils 12-13 team defense / puck possession game was stronger than it was in 11-12, resulting in allowing a league best 23 shots per game. This is why they were better at preventing goals at even strength (the Devils' goaltenders had a .909 save percentage at ES in 11-12, .905 in 12-13, not much difference). The 12-13 defense was better than the 11-12 defense.

However, the amount of goals the Devils' surrendered on the PK as a share of total goals allowed doubled. This is because the Devils' netminders went from stopping .920 percent of shots on the PK in 11-12 to .820 percent of shots on the PK in 12-13.

I personally don't think the Devils coaches and personnel, which was largely unchanged on the PK from 11-12 to 12-13, suddenly forgot how to do their jobs on the PK. The most likely scenario is that the Devils' goaltenders simply regressed from a luck-based, unsustainable level of 92% to 82%, and chances are they'll land somewhere in the middle in 13-14, which means our PK will be around top 8-10 based on their superior ability to disrupt the other team from shooting than other PK units.

With normal PK luck, the Devils would have been a top three team in goals against last year. Conversely, the 11-12 would have struggled to make the playoffs with normal PK luck.
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat said:
Also, remember that the GF numbers for the 11-12 Devils were exaggerated by the 12 shootout wins.
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I have to be perfectly honest, I didn't realize that shootout goals were being counted in GF...I thought that was all non counted stats.


But it still doesn't change anything in the gap in goals For and differentials for each year.

They still scored 216 real goals in 2011-12 for 2.63 Goals per game
And they scored 110 real goals this season for 2.29 Goals per game...

And the Goals Against are virtually identical for each year.

Same thing.
 
CerebralGenesis said:
But that doesn't address the lack of goals for though, which is what caused them to miss?
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The 12-13 Devils were a different team than the 11-12 Devils. They were always going to score less goals. However, the 12-13 defense was better than 11-12, and should have finished better than they did in goals against.

The point is that, if one were to normalize shootout and PK performance to league average %'s (and these are things which should be normalized because teams have very little control of them, they are inherently luck based), the 11-12 and 12-13 Devils would have almost identical records.
 
Remember the Kovalchuk that put the team on his back when Jacques Lemaire returned for one more run? Remember when the team, lead by Kovy, climbed from the bottom of the East to almost make the playoffs? Remember when Ilya was scoring game winning goals left and right, busting his ass and doing whatever it took to get the team a win?

If we had that Ilya Kovalchuk last season, we make the playoffs.

Instead, we had floating, lazy, don't care, "I'd rather be in Russia" Kovalchuk, and look what happened.
 
We were on pace to score 191 goals this past season. We scored 216 in 11-12. Those aren't counting shootout winners either.
 
Chessarmy said:
Remember the Kovalchuk that put the team on his back when Jacques Lemaire returned for one more run? Remember when the team, lead by Kovy, climbed from the bottom of the East to almost make the playoffs? Remember when Ilya was scoring game winning goals left and right, busting his ass and doing whatever it took to get the team a win?

If we had that Ilya Kovalchuk last season, we make the playoffs.

Instead, we had floating, lazy, don't care, "I'd rather be in Russia" Kovalchuk, and look what happened.
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I agree completely. Kovalchuk was not good by his standards last season. We went 3-9-2 during one stretch with him and two of those wins were shootouts. We lost 3 shootouts in 11 games without him.

If we lost both of those shootouts, we have a very similar record with him in the lineup as we did with him out of the lineup. He didn't score a shootout goal in either of those 2 shootouts either.
 
Jim's theorem: Score more goals than you allow and you win, score fewer goals than you allow and you lose...

How everything else breaks down after that is fodder for conversation but not much else.
 
Richer's Ghost said:
shootout goals are being counted in the stats?

Well that renders them basically useless. Silly to do that. 1 goal should be recorded at most for a shootout win or loss.
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I checked they registered in the 'Goals For' column.
 
Bleedred said:
We were on pace to score 191 goals this past season. We scored 216 in 11-12. Those aren't counting shootout winners either.
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Right, a 25 goal difference.

The 11-12 Devils allowed 27 short handed goals. The 12-13 Devils were on pace to allow 54 short handed goals, a 27 goal difference. Granted the 12-13 Devils spent a bit more time in the box, however the difference is just as large.

Swap the penalty kill save percentages of the 11-12 and 12-13 teams and they're identical from a goal differential standpoint.
 
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