On the surface, it would seem like a lot. The 11-12 Devils were within two wins of hoisting the Stanley Cup, while the 12-13 Devils missed the playoffs. The 11-12 Devils obviously had a more successful season, and following that cup run was one of the best moments I've had as a Devils fan.
With that said, I don't think the 11-12 team was much better than the 12-13 team. This might seem like a blasphemous statement on first glance, but hear me out.
First of all, while it's a great accomplishment to make it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup, everyone should remember that the 11-12 season was extremely close to being noted as failure after Game 5 of the Florida series. New Jersey was extremely lucky to win back to back overtime games to advance to the semi finals. That team very easily could have been eliminated with a slightly different bounce of the puck, and everyone would remember 11-12 as a failure rather than a success. As a result, I'm going to focus the analysis on the regular season performances of both teams.
Points Percentage:
11-12 Devils: .622 (7th)
12-13 Devils: .500 (23rd)
That's a pretty vast disparity. However, the 11-12 Devils were the beneficiary of an incredible shootout performance, which was driven by a bit of skill but mostly luck (season to season variation in shootout performance is huge, and it's no wonder if one thinks about the mechanics of a shootout - a breakaway contest with only 3 shots per team). They finished 12-4 in the shootout that year, a .750 winning percentage, which was tops in the NHL.
The 12-13 Devils were not quite as fortunate. They finished with a 2-7 shoot out record, good for a .286 winning percentage. While the Devils lost a good shootout player in Zach Parise, the vast majority of the difference in performance was explained by Ilya Kovalchuk failing to repeat his ridiculous 11-14 performance and Brodeur/Hedberg stopping shots well below their career shootout norms (.700+ save percentage guys going to .555).
If one were to swap shootout winning percentages among the 11-12 and 12-13 Devils, the picture becomes a bit more interesting:
Adjusted Points Percentage:
11-12 Devils: .586 (12th)
12-13 Devils: .552 (18th)
While the 11-12 Devils are still better, the gap is much smaller.
What explains the remaining gap?
The 11-12 Devils' penalty kill, which finished at 89.6% and was the best PK the NHL has seen in quite some time. The 12-13 Devils finished at 81.1%, good for 16th best, a mediocre fate which is not uncommon for the reigning best PK in the league to experience in the season after. Why? Because success on the penalty kill is also fairly random, which is easy to understand considering the Devils posted the same penalty kill unit in 12-13 minus Zach Parise, and actually saw the deterioration of their PK luck begin in the 11-12 playoffs.
The performance of the 11-12 Devils penalty kill was truly extraordinary. The Devils finished -12 on the PK (27 PPGA, 15 SHGF) over an 82 game season, which is absolutely crazy. The median in is usually like -40, while the best team typically is at -25. We probably won't see that level of PK dominance for another several decades, if ever. Over an 82 game season the 12-13 Devils were on pace for a -36 on the PK.
The strength of the 11-12 Devils, at least in the regular season, rested in their insane shootout and penalty kill performances, which were entirely not repeatable.
So while many people like to allude to the loss of Zach Parise, "defensive breakdowns" and an overall inability to score as reasons why the 12-13 Devils sucked, they should be reminded that the shootout and penalty kill, things largely unrelated to the typical arguments given for the demise of the 12-13 Devils, were the primary drivers of a poor performance. The 12-13 Devils likely would have missed the playoffs even with Zach Parise.
What this means? The 11-12 Devils weren't as good as you thought they were, while the 12-13 Devils weren't as bad you thought they are. The 11-12 Devils were still better, but the gap was not cavernous. The 12-13 Devils led the NHL in shot differential and were an extremely good puck possession team, so expect a good finish with better goaltending and a more balanced offense, as well as hopefully some normal (not bad) luck.
With that said, I don't think the 11-12 team was much better than the 12-13 team. This might seem like a blasphemous statement on first glance, but hear me out.
First of all, while it's a great accomplishment to make it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup, everyone should remember that the 11-12 season was extremely close to being noted as failure after Game 5 of the Florida series. New Jersey was extremely lucky to win back to back overtime games to advance to the semi finals. That team very easily could have been eliminated with a slightly different bounce of the puck, and everyone would remember 11-12 as a failure rather than a success. As a result, I'm going to focus the analysis on the regular season performances of both teams.
Points Percentage:
11-12 Devils: .622 (7th)
12-13 Devils: .500 (23rd)
That's a pretty vast disparity. However, the 11-12 Devils were the beneficiary of an incredible shootout performance, which was driven by a bit of skill but mostly luck (season to season variation in shootout performance is huge, and it's no wonder if one thinks about the mechanics of a shootout - a breakaway contest with only 3 shots per team). They finished 12-4 in the shootout that year, a .750 winning percentage, which was tops in the NHL.
The 12-13 Devils were not quite as fortunate. They finished with a 2-7 shoot out record, good for a .286 winning percentage. While the Devils lost a good shootout player in Zach Parise, the vast majority of the difference in performance was explained by Ilya Kovalchuk failing to repeat his ridiculous 11-14 performance and Brodeur/Hedberg stopping shots well below their career shootout norms (.700+ save percentage guys going to .555).
If one were to swap shootout winning percentages among the 11-12 and 12-13 Devils, the picture becomes a bit more interesting:
Adjusted Points Percentage:
11-12 Devils: .586 (12th)
12-13 Devils: .552 (18th)
While the 11-12 Devils are still better, the gap is much smaller.
What explains the remaining gap?
The 11-12 Devils' penalty kill, which finished at 89.6% and was the best PK the NHL has seen in quite some time. The 12-13 Devils finished at 81.1%, good for 16th best, a mediocre fate which is not uncommon for the reigning best PK in the league to experience in the season after. Why? Because success on the penalty kill is also fairly random, which is easy to understand considering the Devils posted the same penalty kill unit in 12-13 minus Zach Parise, and actually saw the deterioration of their PK luck begin in the 11-12 playoffs.
The performance of the 11-12 Devils penalty kill was truly extraordinary. The Devils finished -12 on the PK (27 PPGA, 15 SHGF) over an 82 game season, which is absolutely crazy. The median in is usually like -40, while the best team typically is at -25. We probably won't see that level of PK dominance for another several decades, if ever. Over an 82 game season the 12-13 Devils were on pace for a -36 on the PK.
The strength of the 11-12 Devils, at least in the regular season, rested in their insane shootout and penalty kill performances, which were entirely not repeatable.
So while many people like to allude to the loss of Zach Parise, "defensive breakdowns" and an overall inability to score as reasons why the 12-13 Devils sucked, they should be reminded that the shootout and penalty kill, things largely unrelated to the typical arguments given for the demise of the 12-13 Devils, were the primary drivers of a poor performance. The 12-13 Devils likely would have missed the playoffs even with Zach Parise.
What this means? The 11-12 Devils weren't as good as you thought they were, while the 12-13 Devils weren't as bad you thought they are. The 11-12 Devils were still better, but the gap was not cavernous. The 12-13 Devils led the NHL in shot differential and were an extremely good puck possession team, so expect a good finish with better goaltending and a more balanced offense, as well as hopefully some normal (not bad) luck.
Last edited:
