How much will O'Reilly win in arbitration?

[tigervixxxen]

Apologies for yet another O'Reilly thread. Just curious on the prediction consensus on what O'Reilly's award will be.

Waffled between doing ranges and hard numbers in the poll. So if you have a guess outside the poll options please post.

 

[AslanRH]

5.75m

 

[henchman21]

5.525-5.75m. The comparables for $6m are not there.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

5.75m

Yeah, that's the number I see as well. I don't see it going above 6M.

 

[Hans Landaskog]

Going with a bold prediction of $6.125M.

 

[Former Ladder]

I think a deal will be struck in the eleventh hour for more than $6M AAV and about 5 years so that he is still in his "prime" and can make one more blockbuster deal.

I'm thinking 5 years with 6.5 AAV with $ increasing every year.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I almost think they'll go down the middle and split the difference at around 6.1 but if comparable a heavily weigh their decision then I understand it will be tough to get there. I'm guessing 6 though, maybe an unfounded thought but I just don't think they want issue from the PA by going too low.

 

[hockeyfish]

He will settle pre-arbitration. Either a 4 year deal worth 6.3 (5.8, 6.3, 6.5, 6.6), or a one year deal at 5.8.

 

[Burnaby_Joe*]

$5.75m

 

[Bubba Thudd]

voted "special snowflakes", just because the phrase made me laugh.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

If he gets 6M or more I will be surprised.

 

[Over the Pants Landy]

6M. Or 5 minutes before arbitration they sign 8 yr/48 mil and the crowd goes wild.

 

[Nzap]

6M. Or 5 minutes before arbitration they sign 8 yr/48 mil and the crowd goes wild.

I'd say the more likely event would be O'Reilly taking that contract offer to the arbitrator and explaining that this is the kind of crap Avs are offering him.

 

[bohlmeister]

I hope the arbitrator finds a loophole and pays him 4 mill.

 

[SuperJoe]

He will settle pre-arbitration. Either a 4 year deal worth 6.3 (5.8, 6.3, 6.5, 6.6), or a one year deal at 5.8.

That's about the only deal I see them reach, 4 years buys a few UFA years and gets ROR a chance to strike big at the age of 27-28, while getting a nice payday in the meantime. I say 4 years 25.5 mill, but I would put the chances of that happening at 10-15%.

I don't remember a case where there is so little chance of settlement before the hearing. Good ****ing lord I can't believe they can't hammer out a deal. Well i'll know a few minutes after I get up (6PT) if they are in the hearing, we can honestly say this has been an utter ****ing disaster. No doubt the Avs "win" the arb., but the fat lady will be singing.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

She'll be singing, "Na Na Na Na, Na Na Na Na, Hey Hey, Goodbye".

But who will be singing it with her? Avs management, or the O'Reilly camp?

 

[Bonzai12]

ROR will stick around until the team can't restrict him, then they'll trade him away. His fate's already pretty much determined in my book.

At least this first round pick sounds like the same type of player from what you guys are saying.

 

[SuperJoe]

She'll be singing, "Na Na Na Na, Na Na Na Na, Hey Hey, Goodbye".

But who will be singing it with her? Avs management, or the O'Reilly camp?

At this point, without too much evidence I have to believe the ROR camp doesn't really want to negotiate unless given the moon, 2 years at 5.75/6 and then it's sluicing time, let's go get me some gold.

 

[Avs For Life]

6 mil. Avs will then try to lock him up long term at that price, he wont, and we trade him.

That is my prediction.

I still dont see how 6 mil for 7 years would be bad for him. That is a really good contract.

 

[UncleRisto]

ROR wins a ticket out of Denver.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

ROR will stick around until the team can't restrict him, then they'll trade him away. His fate's already pretty much determined in my book.

At least this first round pick sounds like the same type of player from what you guys are saying.

Yup I've come to this conclusion as well.

Bleackley is a slightly less talented version of ROR but with Landeskog-like intangibles. So at least he won't squabble over contract money, hopefully.

It's a shame ROR is just all about cashing in on an inflated, self-percieved value, we're going to miss his defensive workload when he's gone.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

6 mil. Avs will then try to lock him up long term at that price, he wont, and we trade him.

That is my prediction.

I still dont see how 6 mil for 7 years would be bad for him. That is a really good contract.

6M over 7 is a great contract. If Bergeron is making 6.5M over 8 years (and let's be honest, Bergeron is a much better version of ROR) he should take that deal and run with it.

 

[5280]

I voted 6 Million. I think Ryan's synergies are going to win him some dollars with the arbitrator.

 

[hockeyfish]

Yup I've come to this conclusion as well.

Bleackley is a slightly less talented version of ROR but with Landeskog-like intangibles. So at least he won't squabble over contract money, hopefully.

It's a shame ROR is just all about cashing in on an inflated, self-percieved value, we're going to miss his defensive workload when he's gone.

I hope he can be there one day, but I just don't see it. O'Reilly may be one of my favorite players, so I may be too biased, but I see him as this generation's Hejduk. He isn't quite as fast, but his goal scoring and elite level thinking of the game is just as good.

 

[hughdreamz]

We need the option "Newport elects to take Arbitrator to arbitration"