How many points will the 2019-20 CBJ have?

[majormajor]

Okay I tried to be realistic again and ended up with more goals than my last projection. Where did I mess up?

End of Camp Projection
Player	G	A	P
Dubois	26	37	63
Atkinson	32	25	57
Jones	12	43	55
Bjorkstrand	26	20	46
Werenski	15	31	46
Texier	17	24	41
Nyquist	16	24	40
Jenner	15	25	40
Anderson	23	17	40
Murray (60 GP)	2	36	38
Wennberg	8	27	35
Bemstrom	16	16	32
Foligno	16	14	30
Nash	6	20	26
Milano (54GP)	11	10	21
Nutivaara	3	19	22
Savard	7	14	21
Gavrikov (60 GP)	2	11	13
Kukan (55 GP)	2	10	12
Lilja (25 GP)	2	4	6
Harrington (20 GP)	1	4	5
Total Goals	258

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Okay I tried to be realistic again and ended up with more goals than my last projection. Where did I mess up?

End of Camp Projection
Player	G	A	P
Dubois	26	37	63
Atkinson	32	25	57
Jones	12	43	55
Bjorkstrand	26	20	46
Werenski	15	31	46
Texier	17	24	41
Nyquist	16	24	40
Jenner	15	25	40
Anderson	23	17	40
Murray (60 GP)	2	36	38
Wennberg	8	27	35
Bemstrom	16	16	32
Foligno	16	14	30
Nash	6	20	26
Milano (54GP)	11	10	21
Nutivaara	3	19	22
Savard	7	14	21
Gavrikov (60 GP)	2	11	13
Kukan (55 GP)	2	10	12
Lilja (25 GP)	2	4	6
Harrington (20 GP)	1	4	5
Total Goals	258

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

My observations about possible over estimations are:

Counting on 11 goals for Milano might be a bit steep. When he scored the 14, I thought a good portion of them were lucky goals. I should probably look back at them to confirm this or rid myself of this idea. In any case, I don't think it's unreasonable to project Milano as a complete washout.

33 between Texier and Bemstrom could be a bit high as well. Their combined career totals of NHL goals is one at this point. They really are wild cards at this point.

PLD at 26 might be steep as well. Panarin effect.

Savard at 7 would be a few more than I'd estimate and Wennberg is who knows but I'm nitpicking at this point.

I expect the team to be in the 3.0 goals per game range, so I wouldn't think that your total estimate is too high by very much-if it's high at all.

 

[stevo61]

I think the Panarin effect on Dubois will go the opposite way, I expect him to do more for himself and atleast increase his goal totals. The interesting thing for me is will he and Atkinson stick without a Panarin to round out the line

 

[GoJackets1]

Okay I tried to be realistic again and ended up with more goals than my last projection. Where did I mess up?

End of Camp Projection
Player	G	A	P
Dubois	22	30	52
Atkinson	31	22	53
Jones	11	39	50
Bjorkstrand	29	17	46
Werenski	13	29	42
Texier	20	28	48
Nyquist	14	29	43
Jenner	17	15	32
Anderson	27	21	48
Murray (60 GP)	2	24	26
Wennberg	6	31	37
Bemstrom	11	9	20
Foligno	12	21	33
Nash	6	10	16
Milano (54GP)	8	13	21
Nutivaara	5	18	23
Savard	8	19	27
Gavrikov (60 GP)	3	14	17
Kukan (55 GP)	2	10	12
Lilja (25 GP)	1	4	5
Harrington (20 GP)	0	4	4
Total Goals	248

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Mine are very similar numbers, my goal total is 10 lower.

The goalie numbers I'm thinking are:
Korpisalo 24–19-5 || 2.73GAA || .914%
Merzlikins 16-14-4 || 2.85GAA || .909%

40-33-9 for 89 points
248 GF
231 GA

 

[We Want Ten]

I missed the poll, but I think mid 80's is where we will be.

 

[EspenK]

RE major's point totals: One goal less per player or one more and there is a swing of 21 goals either way giving a range of 227-269.

In macro terms I tend to think of Cyclones 3 per game as the ceiling and approximates GoJackets' projection of 248. We can haggle over individuals but the total appears about right to me.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'm not sure Dubois gets 50+ points this year, let alone 60.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

I'm not sure Dubois gets 50+ points this year, let alone 60.

I know he doesn’t have Panarin, but it’d be extremely, extremely disappointing if our #1C who scored 48 as a 19-year-old (when he spent a good chunk of the year down in the lineup) and 61 as a 20-year-old can’t hit 50 as a 21-year-old.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

PLED, Coach with no name & bus88 think we will exceed 100 points.. can I get some of what your smoking?? Just kidding, I really appreciate your optimism.I think PLD, Texier, Bjork and Andy will exceed expectations.. oh and Milano scores 20+ goals this year

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I know he doesn’t have Panarin, but it’d be extremely, extremely disappointing if our #1C who scored 48 as a 19-year-old (when he spent a good chunk of the year down in the lineup) and 61 as a 20-year-old can’t hit 50 as a 21-year-old.

We have two sample sizes with PLD, one large, and one fairly small. The large sample of course is with Panarin (start of PB&J line, then Atkinson). And the small sample (start of his rookie year, sometimes when Panarin was out of the lineup, and of course at some points last year after Duchene got here). The large sample is really really good, and a 1C in the making. The smaller sample isn't very good at all.

Now I'm not saying "pAnArIn CaRrIeD pLd" but I think Panarin did all of the heavy lifting for that line. PLD thrived being the sidekick (Or third wheel?) to Panarin. Now, he has to play center and do some of the heavy lifting himself. Can he? I think he can, but I don't think its going to be a smooth and easy transition. Especially with PLD's faceoff numbers being so putrid, we won't start with the puck much, and I fear a lot of the problems with the line is getting the puck back and getting offensive chances.

However, Texier is a real wild card. If he can be game breaker-ish then all bets are off and PLD should be fine. But PLD is up there with my concerns. Not as high as goaltending, but high.

 

[EspenK]

Okay I tried to be realistic again and ended up with more goals than my last projection. Where did I mess up?

End of Camp Projection
Player	G	A	P
Dubois	26	37	63
Atkinson	32	25	57
Jones	12	43	55
Bjorkstrand	26	20	46
Werenski	15	31	46
Texier	17	24	41
Nyquist	16	24	40
Jenner	15	25	40
Anderson	23	17	40
Murray (60 GP)	2	36	38
Wennberg	8	27	35
Bemstrom	16	16	32
Foligno	16	14	30
Nash	6	20	26
Milano (54GP)	11	10	21
Nutivaara	3	19	22
Savard	7	14	21
Gavrikov (60 GP)	2	11	13
Kukan (55 GP)	2	10	12
Lilja (25 GP)	2	4	6
Harrington (20 GP)	1	4	5
Total Goals	258

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'd say when you doubled everyone's totals. On pace for 123.

 

[majormajor]

I'd say when you doubled everyone's totals. On pace for 126.

Some people have a hard time understanding sample size.

 

[The Jones Zone]

Is there a consensus # 1 draft pick next year?

 

[Viqsi]

I'm going to go with the number of points we got the last time we lost the first two games of the season. That would be... :looks: ...um, 108.

Okay, maybe it's too soon.

 

[koteka]

Is there a consensus # 1 draft pick next year?

Alexis Lafrenière at eliteprospects.com

 

[EspenK]

Some people have a hard time understanding sample size.

and some don't have a sense of humor

 

[Cyclones Rock]

and some don't have a sense of humor

A quality which might be of great necessity this season.

 

[majormajor]

and some don't have a sense of humor

What can I say? Take enough stats classes and linear extrapolation stops being funny.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Dear god, do I have to guess now?

I am going to have such a shitty winter of sports........outside of tOSU, every one of my teams are possible dumpster fires in the making.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

RE major's point totals: One goal less per player or one more and there is a swing of 21 goals either way giving a range of 227-269.

In macro terms I tend to think of Cyclones 3 per game as the ceiling and approximates GoJackets' projection of 248. We can haggle over individuals but the total appears about right to me.

I'm firm on 3.0/game as the top now. Thought it might go higher.

Entirely possible this team could score 230 goals or less-that would have only been the 12th lowest in the league last year so 230 might be optimistic.

 

[EspenK]

I could easily see the Jackets as one of the 5 lowest goal scorers. No playmakers. No real good snipers. Lousy pp. Can't finish breakaways. No Panarin. Kind of got carried away with the hype as to better than 3 a game. NFW.

 

[CharlotteJacket]

Is there a consensus # 1 draft pick next year?

If there were, we'd come in second.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

I could easily see the Jackets as one of the 5 lowest goal scorers. No playmakers. No real good snipers. Lousy pp. Can't finish breakaways. No Panarin. Kind of got carried away with the hype as to better than 3 a game. NFW.

Boone Jenner scored 30 goals once.

 

[majormajor]

I could easily see the Jackets as one of the 5 lowest goal scorers. No playmakers. No real good snipers.

Who were the playmakers and snipers in 2016-17 when they finished 6th in league scoring (5 v 5 and overall)? How good did they look when they lost the first pair that year?

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Who were the playmakers and snipers in 2016-17 when they finished 6th in league scoring (5 v 5 and overall)? How good did they look when they lost the first pair that year?

Who was the primary goalie when they finished 2nd in goals against that season? Even if they replicate the goals scored rank (which they assuredly won't) with the nets being "guarded" the way that they probably will be, it wouldn't matter.