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How many points will it take to make the playoffs? (2016-17 edition)

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HansH

HansH

Unwelcome Spectre
Feb 2, 2005
5,294
482
San Diego
So, I know I haven't been doing this most of the year, but hey, some people may still like this thread.

After the games of 2/23/17:

The Kings sit outside of the playoff projections, currently slated for 85 points. Calgary currently projects to eighth, and 89 points. Thus, the target for the Kings is 90 points. To get there from their current standings, they would have to go 13-7-2 (a .636 winning percentage) in the remaining 22 games.
Click to read more...
 
Thanks for doing this again, I always enjoy checking out this thread season after season.


(Well, not so much this year, but I appreciate your effort anyway...)
 
what do they have, something like 3 or 4 games against the Flames? Its eerily reminiscent of 14/15
 
theMajor said:
what do they have, something like 3 or 4 games against the Flames? Its eerily reminiscent of 14/15
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4 games against the Flames, 3 of them in Calgary. First one is Tuesday the night after Kings are in Minny.
 
Love this thread every year. Thanks for doing this. Going to be a tough hill to climb, but we did it to ourselves. Those CGY games are critical.
 
After the games of 2/25/17:

Calgary projects to the second wildcard with 90 points, making the Kings' target to overtake them 91 points. That would require a record of 13-7-1 in the remaining 21 games, a percentage of .643. The Kings' current pace projects them to 86 points.
 
SCS has the Kings chances to make the playoffs at 54.8%.

The worse they could do and still probably make it is 9-6-3 (89pts). That would give them a 55.4% chance of making it.
 
After the games of 3/2/17:

The Blues now project to the 2nd wildcard spot at 89 points, making the Kings' target 90 points.

That translates into a record of 10-6-2 (or 11-7), and a percentage of .611.

Staying on their current pace would yield the Kings a season-ending total of 87 points.

As a side note, with two fewer GP, the Blues lead the Kings 30-29 in the ROW tiebreaker.
 
So if they end up at the second wildcard, do they play the top team in the pacific? I still hate this format, so I'm still not sure how it works.
 
Cruel11 said:
So if they end up at the second wildcard, do they play the top team in the pacific? I still hate this format, so I'm still not sure how it works.
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Think 2nd wildcard will bounce to the central this year, as Min will probably have the best record in the West.
 
1st Wild Card will play the Sharks
2nd Wild Card will play the Wild or Blackhawks

If the Kings play well I think they're capable of beating any team in the West except Chicago. Out of the 3 teams above, I'd prefer the Wild in the 1st round, although I do think the Sharks are more vulnerable than they look.
 
Cruel11 said:
So if they end up at the second wildcard, do they play the top team in the pacific? I still hate this format, so I'm still not sure how it works.
Click to expand...

How it works is: the #1 wildcard plays the weaker division winner. The #2 wildcard plays the conference winner.
 
After the games of 3/5/17:

#2 wildcard projection remains the Blues, currently projecting to 88 points, making the Kings' target 89 points.

To achieve 89 points, the Kings need a record of 10-6-1, which translates to a .618 points percentage.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 3/5/17:

#2 wildcard projection remains the Blues, currently projecting to 88 points, making the Kings' target 89 points.

To achieve 89 points, the Kings need a record of 10-6-1, which translates to a .618 points percentage.
Click to expand...



We can go 12-3-2, just as long as Bishop stays on the bench! :laugh:
 
Thanks as always, Hans.

The kind of record it would take to make it would give me confidence in this team in the playoffs at least. So either we make it and feel pretty good, or we miss rightfully :P
 
IF the Kings make it to the playoffs all they have to do to get to the WCF is beat Minnesota, then Chicago. Easy, not worried at all.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 3/5/17:

#2 wildcard projection remains the Blues, currently projecting to 88 points, making the Kings' target 89 points.

To achieve 89 points, the Kings need a record of 10-6-1, which translates to a .618 points percentage.
Click to expand...

Guess that depends on the projector you're using, that' only 9 wins and they have a very favorable schedule.

I have them at 92-95 pts. Of the 18 games left, GIven that 10 are against tjhe Avs 3 , Yotes,3 Canes 1, Canucks , Ducks , 2 and Jets 1 . All very winnable. Also a large % of their games are against teams currently not in the playoffs.

Kings schedule is tougher, 12 of their remaining 17 are against teams currently in the playoffs.
And to get those points , they have to start getting regulation wins and win 2 out of every 3, giving them about 14 wins, 28 pts.
 
deeshamrock said:
Guess that depends on the projector you're using, that' only 9 wins and they have a very favorable schedule.
Click to expand...

As I explain every year, I use a very simple projection - current points percentage multiplied by 82 games in the total season. Of course you can get deeper into the numbers, and pull things like "feelings" and "impression" and "momentum" in, but that's even more subjective. I'm just going with the quickest way to get a number, for people to have a rough idea. It's a projection, not a prediction, as I also say every year.
 
I appreciate this thread. Idk how realistic the Blues only getting 87-89 points is when they have a bunch of games with the Avs/Coyotes left. I think the Kings are keeping that 2018 4th round pick.
 
HansH said:
As I explain every year, I use a very simple projection - current points percentage multiplied by 82 games in the total season. Of course you can get deeper into the numbers, and pull things like "feelings" and "impression" and "momentum" in, but that's even more subjective. I'm just going with the quickest way to get a number, for people to have a rough idea. It's a projection, not a prediction, as I also say every year.
Click to expand...

My wife tries to get me to do this, but I only deal in facts. :)
 
deeshamrock said:
Guess that depends on the projector you're using, that' only 9 wins and they have a very favorable schedule.

I have them at 92-95 pts. Of the 18 games left, GIven that 10 are against tjhe Avs 3 , Yotes,3 Canes 1, Canucks , Ducks , 2 and Jets 1 . All very winnable. Also a large % of their games are against teams currently not in the playoffs.

Kings schedule is tougher, 12 of their remaining 17 are against teams currently in the playoffs.
And to get those points , they have to start getting regulation wins and win 2 out of every 3, giving them about 14 wins, 28 pts.
Click to expand...

For the way this team plays, this works in our favor, lol.
 
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