How many points for the Sharks in 2024-2025? Poll/discussion

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm thinking they're a 56-60 point team and hopefully that's still bad enough to get a top five pick but a team that is creating an identity for themselves in how they want to play. That would be a tremendous step in the right direction for the franchise.

 

[STL Shark]

Wennberg, Goodrow, and Dellandrea aren't good either. A lot of the additions from last offseason were highly heralded going into last season, but with a core as bad as the Sharks they weren't able to do anything.

None of the guys acquired have the ability to drive possession.

Celebrini and Smith are rookies and like most rookies, with very few exceptions, will almost surely have a negative impact on the team while they are figuring things out.

They're all NHL players. Not sure if you've noticed, but the guys that left this offseason literally don't have NHL jobs. So when half of your lineup is comprised of guys that are now going to Europe to play professional hockey and are now being replaced by average NHL players, that is going to make a rather large difference in the standings. Doesn't mean we still won't be bottom 5 in the league, it's just going to look a lot better relative to 2023-24 and go from historically bad to just bad.

Add in that shouldn't be getting 15 starts from Cooley/Chrona AHL/ECHL tweener level goalies, and a 15-20 point improvement is quite plausible.

 

[CanadienShark]

Voted for unrealistic optimism.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

30-44-8 seems realistic and would. but us right in that 66-70 range.

 

[weastern bias]

25-52-5 for 55 points is my prediction

 

[Gecklund]

they will get tired because they havent been conditioned to play against "men" for the grind of an NHL season. Learning how to pace yourself and play correctly is going to be a bit of a challenge for most rookies.

That said, its not 1996. These kids have grown up in pro programs and are much more likely to make an impact than in the past.

I still think its high 50's, maybe low 60's at best.

That’s my thinking which like 10 point improvement is pretty good still.

 

[coooldude]

24 votes for <=60
31 votes for 61-65
27 votes for >=66

On the whole, an optimistic year so far versus last year where 75% expected <20 wins - we'll see!

 

[Lebanezer]

Voted for unrealistic optimism.

High five!

 

[sharski]

I just want to give kudos to the entire team here at HFBoards where nobody has voted for the lowest choice of <45 points

 

[tahoesharksfan]

Lastly I think there is going to be a general boost to the teams performance simply because I think players will be more motivated this year, we are done with the tear down portion of the rebuild, and now the general sentiment in the organization should be far more positive and upbeat. Now players should be competing to be a part of the future of this team, instead of just spinning their wheels during a tear down, not knowing if they'll be the next to go in an attempt to recoup/gain assets for the rebuild.

I hoping that playing under Warfs also helps with the motivation.
There was a reason Quinn was let go so quickly at the end of last season....

 

[timorous me]

I just want to give kudos to the entire team here at HFBoards where nobody has voted for the lowest choice of <45 points

We've entered the era of earnestness. @Alaskanice wearing the C and everyone here following in line like a good little soldier

 

[MackAttack71]

71

 

[coooldude]

Quarter pole report card time!
tl;dr

• We are on track for Warsofsky's plan to "gain some respect back in the NHL" and be a harder out for teams, but we are still bad.
• We are a more competitive team this year, both by record and in terms of pushing teams to the limit/OT, and the wisdom of Sharks HFB is strong so far. However, we are still clearly bottom 5.
• At 5v5, we don't generate many shots and chances, and others generate a lot more shots and chances against us. We aren't horrible at puck management but we're also not anywhere near good. However, we are not the worst in the league, just close to it.
• Goaltending, especially Blackwood, has been a bright spot, near the top of the league on some measures.
• Our PP is toothless but not horrendous, and our PK is average-to-solid.
• We'll probably stay on this 0.400 bottom 3-5 pace, versus going back to first 10 games or continuing on 0.500 like last 10 games. But, there is a decent chance that other teams are so bad, and we are slighly better enough, that we don't end up last.

The Basics

1. Points and pace. Sharks are on pace for 65.6 points - slightly above the median prediction.
2. GF/GA. Not counting EN goals (using Moneypuck), Sharks are 10th worst with 50 goals for (all situations), and 5th worst w/ 68 goals against. The differential is 3rd worst (BOS and PIT are worse).
3. Home/away. We're 0.500 at home and 0.318 away as a points%.
4. Reg, OT, SO. Over 1/3 (35%, aka 7) of our games have gone to OT. I'm far too lazy to do the work on whether this is high or not this year, but it is quite high vs. historical 20-25%. We're 3-1 when the game ends before the shootout and 0-3 when it gets to shootout.
5. We're 15th in Faceoffs at just under 51%.
6. 5th highest hits behind NSH, BOS, NJD, FLA.
7. 2nd highest shots blocked, one behind Philly.

The takeaway: We are a more competitive team this year, both by record and in terms of pushing teams to the limit/OT, and the wisdom of Sharks HFB is strong so far. However, we are still clearly bottom 5.

5v5 advanced stats

1. With 965 5v5 minutes, the Sharks have played the 3rd most minutes at 5v5, behind PIT and NJD. We're in the first 4 teams to 20 games played.
2. In those minutes, we are 2nd worst in shot attempt share (Corsi For, CF% = 44.4%) and 3rd worst in Fenwick - unblocked shots % - at 44.4%.
3. 39.9 xGF is 16th in the league - dead in the middle. However, that's only 2.18 xGF/60, 5th worst in the league.
4. 49.57 xGA is the worst in the league - however, that's "only" 3.05 xGA/60, good for 2nd worst in the league.
5. xG% is 42% - worst in the league - and xGD/60 of -0.81 is second-worst to ANA.
6. We have the 14th highest high danger shots for, 18th medium-danger, and 15th highest low-danger shots for. All of those will be less exciting if normalized /60, but I don't want to do that work.
7. OTOH, we are 2nd highest in HDSA, MDSA, and worst for LDSA. If normalized /60, this would maybe look a bit better, but still.
8. This means a 40.9% HDSF%. Not great.
9. 46% share of takeaways is 5th worst. We are 3rd worst at 43% of Giveaways in the DZ, however, we are 13th best at only having 131 DZ giveaways so far. We give the puck away an average amount, but when we do it's often in our zone.
10. We are 12th worst at takeaways from, and 7th worst at takeaways to. We don't take the puck away and we get the puck taken away.

The 5v5 takeaway: We don't generate many shots and chances, and others generate a lot more shots and chances against us. We aren't horrible at puck management but we're also not anywhere near good. However, we are not the worst in the league, just close to it.

Goaltending
As others have posted -- our goalies (especially Blackwood) have been very good - one of the best tandems in the league. I won't redo the work here.

Special teams

1. We have the 10th most PIM, and the 9th most PIM taken against. 51% of PIM's puts us at 10th worst in the league, but pretty much avg.
2. PP is 7th worst at 4.93 xGF/60. This is despite being 12th worst at HDCF, 10th at MDCF, and 11th best at LDCF. Our PP isn't generating enough high danger chances and we're not converting enough when we do.
3. Our PP is also ~5th worst in giveaways to opponent - not great at puck control.
4. We've faced the 2nd most PK minutes. We are 8th best at xGA/60 at only 5.66.
5. We also are 16th best (the middle) at generating shorthanded chances for.
6. And, we have the 2nd highest takeaway% on an average # of takeaways. 6th highest giveaways but only one in the DZ.

Special teams takeaways: Our PP is toothless but not horrendous, and our PK is average-to-solid.

Projecting forward

1. Rest of Season Strength of Schedule (ROS SOS) is 3rd hardest, but the differences are fairly minute.
2. I assume Smith and Celebrini will improve slightly as the year goes on, and the team system will continue to gel.
3. That said, our 5-3-2 stretch in the last 10 showed a lot of underlying weakness. I think we'll likely hover around the 0.400 points percentage rather than becoming a 0.500 team.
4. With any further injuries and/or TDL impacts, I still think we'll finish between 61-65 points, but the team certainly is showing it could get closer to 70.
5. I don't think there's any risk we make the playoffs, but there's certainly a risk we finish 3rd worst and pick 5th, which would be a bummer.

 

[Jargon]

Quarter pole report card time!
tl;dr

• We are on track for Warsofsky's plan to "gain some respect back in the NHL" and be a harder out for teams, but we are still bad.
• We are a more competitive team this year, both by record and in terms of pushing teams to the limit/OT, and the wisdom of Sharks HFB is strong so far. However, we are still clearly bottom 5.
• At 5v5, we don't generate many shots and chances, and others generate a lot more shots and chances against us. We aren't horrible at puck management but we're also not anywhere near good. However, we are not the worst in the league, just close to it.
• Goaltending, especially Blackwood, has been a bright spot, near the top of the league on some measures.
• Our PP is toothless but not horrendous, and our PK is average-to-solid.
• We'll probably stay on this 0.400 bottom 3-5 pace, versus going back to first 10 games or continuing on 0.500 like last 10 games. But, there is a decent chance that other teams are so bad, and we are slighly better enough, that we don't end up last.

The Basics

1. Points and pace. Sharks are on pace for 65.6 points - slightly above the median prediction.
2. GF/GA. Not counting EN goals (using Moneypuck), Sharks are 10th worst with 50 goals for (all situations), and 5th worst w/ 68 goals against. The differential is 3rd worst (BOS and PIT are worse).
3. Home/away. We're 0.500 at home and 0.318 away as a points%.
4. Reg, OT, SO. Over 1/3 (35%, aka 7) of our games have gone to OT. I'm far too lazy to do the work on whether this is high or not this year, but it is quite high vs. historical 20-25%. We're 3-1 when the game ends before the shootout and 0-3 when it gets to shootout.
5. We're 15th in Faceoffs at just under 51%.
6. 5th highest hits behind NSH, BOS, NJD, FLA.
7. 2nd highest shots blocked, one behind Philly.

The takeaway: We are a more competitive team this year, both by record and in terms of pushing teams to the limit/OT, and the wisdom of Sharks HFB is strong so far. However, we are still clearly bottom 5.

5v5 advanced stats

1. With 965 5v5 minutes, the Sharks have played the 3rd most minutes at 5v5, behind PIT and NJD. We're in the first 4 teams to 20 games played.
2. In those minutes, we are 2nd worst in shot attempt share (Corsi For, CF% = 44.4%) and 3rd worst in Fenwick - unblocked shots % - at 44.4%.
3. 39.9 xGF is 16th in the league - dead in the middle. However, that's only 2.18 xGF/60, 5th worst in the league.
4. 49.57 xGA is the worst in the league - however, that's "only" 3.05 xGA/60, good for 2nd worst in the league.
5. xG% is 42% - worst in the league - and xGD/60 of -0.81 is second-worst to ANA.
6. We have the 14th highest high danger shots for, 18th medium-danger, and 15th highest low-danger shots for. All of those will be less exciting if normalized /60, but I don't want to do that work.
7. OTOH, we are 2nd highest in HDSA, MDSA, and worst for LDSA. If normalized /60, this would maybe look a bit better, but still.
8. This means a 40.9% HDSF%. Not great.
9. 46% share of takeaways is 5th worst. We are 3rd worst at 43% of Giveaways in the DZ, however, we are 13th best at only having 131 DZ giveaways so far. We give the puck away an average amount, but when we do it's often in our zone.
10. We are 12th worst at takeaways from, and 7th worst at takeaways to. We don't take the puck away and we get the puck taken away.

The 5v5 takeaway: We don't generate many shots and chances, and others generate a lot more shots and chances against us. We aren't horrible at puck management but we're also not anywhere near good. However, we are not the worst in the league, just close to it.

Goaltending
As others have posted -- our goalies (especially Blackwood) have been very good - one of the best tandems in the league. I won't redo the work here.

Special teams

1. We have the 10th most PIM, and the 9th most PIM taken against. 51% of PIM's puts us at 10th worst in the league, but pretty much avg.
2. PP is 7th worst at 4.93 xGF/60. This is despite being 12th worst at HDCF, 10th at MDCF, and 11th best at LDCF. Our PP isn't generating enough high danger chances and we're not converting enough when we do.
3. Our PP is also ~5th worst in giveaways to opponent - not great at puck control.
4. We've faced the 2nd most PK minutes. We are 8th best at xGA/60 at only 5.66.
5. We also are 16th best (the middle) at generating shorthanded chances for.
6. And, we have the 2nd highest takeaway% on an average # of takeaways. 6th highest giveaways but only one in the DZ.

Special teams takeaways: Our PP is toothless but not horrendous, and our PK is average-to-solid.

Projecting forward

1. Rest of Season Strength of Schedule (ROS SOS) is 3rd hardest, but the differences are fairly minute.
2. I assume Smith and Celebrini will improve slightly as the year goes on, and the team system will continue to gel.
3. That said, our 5-3-2 stretch in the last 10 showed a lot of underlying weakness. I think we'll likely hover around the 0.400 points percentage rather than becoming a 0.500 team.
4. With any further injuries and/or TDL impacts, I still think we'll finish between 61-65 points, but the team certainly is showing it could get closer to 70.
5. I don't think there's any risk we make the playoffs, but there's certainly a risk we finish 3rd worst and pick 5th, which would be a bummer.

Great post, thanks for the deep dive!

My gut tells me they’ll actually get a good deal better as the year goes on. They’ll build chemistry, gain confidence (they already have, and if Smith and Celebrini start producing in a real way, that’s a fairly big game changer. There’s also the chance that Muhk comes in and is a solid top 4 puck mover which would also be a huge help to the team.

I agree with your theory and I think it’s likely they’ll be like 3rd-4th best but I do think there’s an outside chance that they’ll do even better than that. We’ll see I guess! I also wonder how big the sell off will be at the trade deadline…

 

[vortexy]

there's certainly a risk we finish 3rd worst and pick 5th, which would be a bummer.

Yep I really am hoping we finish bottom 2 to at least guarantee a top 4 pick, but this is definitely not certain as I could see us finishing anywhere from 27-32 when all is said and done, as you can see Celebrini and Smith will only get better as the season goes on. You probably have to expect our goaltending performance to go down at least and have to assume the roster will get weaker come trade deadline so there is hope we still get that top 4 pick but it is far from a certainty, when you look around the league there are some baaaaad teams out there.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Great post, thanks for the deep dive!

My gut tells me they’ll actually get a good deal better as the year goes on. They’ll build chemistry, gain confidence (they already have, and if Smith and Celebrini start producing in a real way, that’s a fairly big game changer. There’s also the chance that Muhk comes in and is a solid top 4 puck mover which would also be a huge help to the team.

I agree with your theory and I think it’s likely they’ll be like 3rd-4th best but I do think there’s an outside chance that they’ll do even better than that. We’ll see I guess! I also wonder how big the sell off will be at the trade deadline…

I think the team will improve in terms of overall consistency but there is still going to be another couple of stretches like how we started the year where we're in a lot of games that we're still going to lose.

 

[Jargon]

I think the team will improve in terms of overall consistency but there is still going to be another couple of stretches like how we started the year where we're in a lot of games that we're still going to lose.

Probably.

…Or will our reshaped defense of….

Walman - Ceci
Muhk - Liljegren
Thrun - Jiricek

…turn us into a playoff team?!

(just wishing it into existence…)