How many points for the Sharks in 2024-2025? Poll/discussion

[coooldude]

HALFWAY+1 MARK REPORT CARD

OVERALL, We're tracking for 62.5 points. Right in the middle of our pre-season poll distribution.

Via Tankathon, we're firmly in position to be bottom 3, are currently strong bot2. CHI may be more likely to out-tank us for #1 chance in the lotto though, with the 4th hardest remaining strength of schedule vs. our 16th hardest (middle of pack). We play them once more on March 13.

Moneypuck has us projected to finish dead last, with 64.3 points** before the NJD win. Chicago is next with a projected 68.8.

This is because Moneypuck's power ranking (which takes into account a number of stats and advanced stats over the last 20 games) has us in dead last, mostly because of a league-worst 41.39% xG% at EV, and a league-worst Fenwick (unblocked shots for %) of 44.43%.

OFFENSE - Moneypuck - we are bad. all 5v5...

• 7th worst GF/60 (2.15)
• 3rd worst xGF/60 (2.15)
• 13th worst SOG for (854)
• 9th worst PP xGF/60 (6.06), with the 4th most SH chances against (5v4 xGA/60 = 0.91), overall 8th worst at xGdiff/60 on 5v4.

DEFENSE - we are bad. all 5v5...

• 3rd worst GA/60 (2.94)
• 2nd worst xGA/60 (2.91)
• Worst SOG against in the league at 5v5 (1043)
• 13th best PK xGA/60 (6.81) with 11th worst shorthanded chances at 0.57 xGF/60... overall, a middle of pack PK for xGdiff/60.

Overall/possession/Corsi/fenwick - v v v bad at 5v5.

• Worst Corsi at 45.02%
• Worst Fenwick at 44.19%
• Worst xGdiff overall at -25.28.
• 2nd worst to Chicago at xGdiff/60 of -0.79

All Situations advanced stats: bad bad bad.

• 2nd worst xG% (ANA)
• 2nd worst Corsi% (CHI)
• 2nd worst Fenwick% (CHI)
• 2nd worst xGdiff (ANA)
• Worst xGdiff/60

My prediction: We stay on pace.

• We'll have some more streaks both ways.
• Askarov will win us 3+ games we should lose.
• Georgiev may lose us 3-5 games we had a chance in.
• We'll lose some critical pieces at the deadline, but that might offset by exciting prospect growth.
• We'll end up 2nd worst to Chicago but an unexpected team wins the lotto, throwing the whole Schaefer-Hagens-Misa-Martone calculus in disarray.

 

[Barrie22]

Why can't these polls be for money and betting reasons. Got last years win total correct and this year pacing for the point total

 

[OrrNumber4]

We know who the Sharks are expected to lose at the deadline. What about the Blackhawks or the other bad teams?

 

[sampler]

I expect the sharks may not trade Ceci if they dont get at least a 2nd for him. I would not be surprised to see him resigned. Same for granny except a 1st. may be same for kunin and sturm.

I was of the thinking that the sharks will clearly unload all at the deadline, but I am not 100% sure if the deal isnt good enough...

 

[coooldude]

Time for the three-quarters report!

Boy Howdy, what a rough third quarter.

• We're pacing for 53.3 points -- a massive fall-off from the previous pace of 62.5 points, a.k.a. basically 5 wins below previous pace in Jan-Feb.
• MoneyPuck projects us to finish with 58 points -- owing to an easier final stretch vs. the murderer's row since Dec, when we also swapped Blackie for Georgie.
• Again Moneypuck - We're 7th worst in xGF/60 and worst in xGA/60 -- the defense is the problem.
• Goaltending isn't helping. Georgie is 3rd worst in the league at Goals Saved Above Expected and Vanecek is 11th worst... however, /60, Georgie is only 24th worst and Vitek "only" 18th worst.

However, there are a lot of Moral Victories to be spotted, despite many of your consternationz.

• Per broadcasts, we have lost the most one-goal games in the league, and also the most "close losses" (aka games where 1-goal difference became more because of ENG's).
• By my count, 38 of our 60 games have been close games. We've won 10 of those and lost 28
• Again per Moneypuck, our non-ENG Goal Differential this year is -43. Last year we finished at -107, so this is a massive, massive ~0.7 GPG improvement. (-0.87/60 vs -1.57/60).
• 32 of our games have been vs. current playoff teams - we've won 7. Bummer, but those 7 were pretty great and surprising wins! And, that means that our win % isn't a huge amount different from non-playoff to playoff teams -- a.k.a., they do have it in them to play a good hockey game, and maybe we're playing down a bit as well. I think this is usually a sign of higher potential.

 

[TheBeard]

However, there are a lot of Moral Victories

Rule of thumb; you can't have more moral victories than real victories.

 

[coooldude]

Rule of thumb; you can't have more moral victories than real victories.

Good news! I listed 4 moral victories and we have 15 actual ones.

 

[weastern bias]

Good news! I listed 4 moral victories and we have 15 actual ones.

If you combine those it matches last year's win total