How many points could McDavid possibly score in a season?

[T REX]

McDavid playing for the Oilers or McDavid is he was on the Leafs?

Oilers - 127

Leafs - 259

 

[PumpkinBombX]

I wish the NHL did better tracking of scoring chances.
He gets about 22-25 shifts per game. creates about 20-30 scoring chances per game, and i would say about 15 high-danger scoring chances.
about 1.3 of those leads to a goal.
Then he has those weird games like he went off on Hedman last year where everything goes right.
I don't think he can really create more offence than he does already. Really his linemates having better finish is all he needs.
He can get to 50 goals all by himself. And really playing with Nuge this year thats a no-brainer.

If everything went perfect all year i would say 165 would be the max. (he tends to play in 30 game stretches each year at 2 ppg, but over the season obviously not. I would say 130 is entirely possible. I could also see a scenario where he only gets 110 but is a way better player. (Like he makes his usual unreal plays but the linemates are used more effectively and he doesn't get the assist in-spite of making the play)

 

[blundluntman]

I think he could hit 50+ goals averaging an assist per game if everything went well for a season so I'll say 132+

 

[glenngineer]

Well, how many shifts does he get a year? Find that number out and if he scores a point per shift, there's your answer.

Realistically speaking, I think he could top out at 140 pts if healthy and he has two wingers that can put the puck in the net along side him.

 

[North Cole]

I could see him hitting 130+ in a year where everything goes right. All he needs is some William Karlsson type unsustainable shooting percentage with a hot pp and hot teammates. There's plenty of guys like Benn, Sedin, Hall, Mackinnon etc, where they just go absolutely nuts and then don't repeat it (too early to tell for mack and hall). If Mcdavid is consistently putting up 100+, then its conceivable he could get more in a season where the production becomes an outlier for him too.

 

[TheAngryHank]

Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin's production curve is probably a bit strange just by virtue of how different officiating was when they first came into the league. They all entered the league at an obstruction-free time that has gradually degraded more and more as the years have gone on. If they were playing healthy seasons (unfortunately less common for Crosby and Malkin) in a mid/late 2000s style game, they'd probably be putting up the same or better numbers as their first few years, tbh.

Sometimes I wonder what McDavid would've done between like 05-08. They probably would have had to just stop calling penalties at some point or his team would be on the PP for half the game.

Also the elimination of the red line.

 

[Dicdonya]

I think 140+ is prob right with maybe a 150-160 sprinkled in... just because the game is headed this way

I really hope you are right, about both McDavid and the league scoring.

 

[Regal]

I know he's only 21 but the other "generational" superstars that have come into the league recently have been topping out in point production at around that same age. Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin all had their highest point totals by the time they were 22 which McDavid will be this season. I think he could reach 120 with an outside shot at 130 but each year he doesn't hit those numbers the likelihood of a career year diminishes.

It's typically the less hyped superstars that come into the league that come into the league and are eased in a bit that top out in their mid 20s.

I agree with the general premise here that those level players typically hit their primes quite early, but part of their best totals being that young was circunstantial. Crosby was at his best offensively from 24-26 though, he just didn't play a full season. Malkin was also at his best at 25, but again, missed some games. You could argue that players might be more likely to stay healthy and play through some things at a younger age but it's also just luck. I don't think McDavid is going to significantly improve at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has a peak season where everything goes right anytime up to say 26-27.

I think one thing to keep in mind as well is that league scoring has generally gone down since the beginning of the 80s other than the spike after the lockout. Last year scoring went up, after McDavid started in lower scoring seasons, so if it stays up or goes up even more, it's possible he's at an advantage in the future.

 

[JPeeper]

Crosby would've had 125 ish at his peak so probably higher.

Crosby's peak would have been just over 130 (twas the year he went like 30+ games in a row with a point before getting concussed and missing half the year). I can see McDavid reaching 130 with a PP and better linemates, I mean Crosby put up 120 playing with scrubs in 06-07 (though he had a f***ton of PP points).

McDavid will continue to improve, but teams will also learn to defend him better, ie. the Flames who 95% of the time don't know what the f*** to do with McDavid.

Look at how "mediocre" he was before they were eliminated from the playoffs, Gaudreau was ahead of him for points for 70% of the year. McDavid took off the last 5-6 weeks. Even Crosby going for 130 was half way through the year, maybe he slows down.

If McDavid is going to have a 130+ campaign he needs to be consistent for 82 games and it's almost impossible to happen. Kuch and Stammer last year were on pace for insane numbers and they both tapered off hard and both players are no slouches.

 

[Sauce12]

42

 

[illpucks]

121 to troll HF

 

[HugginThePost]

I wish the NHL did better tracking of scoring chances.
He gets about 22-25 shifts per game. creates about 20-30 scoring chances per game, and i would say about 15 high-danger scoring chances.
about 1.3 of those leads to a goal.
Then he has those weird games like he went off on Hedman last year where everything goes right.
I don't think he can really create more offence than he does already. Really his linemates having better finish is all he needs.
He can get to 50 goals all by himself. And really playing with Nuge this year thats a no-brainer.

If everything went perfect all year i would say 165 would be the max. (he tends to play in 30 game stretches each year at 2 ppg, but over the season obviously not. I would say 130 is entirely possible. I could also see a scenario where he only gets 110 but is a way better player. (Like he makes his usual unreal plays but the linemates are used more effectively and he doesn't get the assist in-spite of making the play)

Come on man....this is just silly!

Not only is there no way he’s creating 15 high danger scoring chances a game, but saying he only converts on 8.5% of those chances is just as crazy!

 

[Future GOAT]

Crosby's peak would have been just over 130 (twas the year he went like 30+ games in a row with a point before getting concussed and missing half the year). I can see McDavid reaching 130 with a PP and better linemates, I mean Crosby put up 120 playing with scrubs in 06-07 (though he had a ****ton of PP points).

McDavid will continue to improve, but teams will also learn to defend him better, ie. the Flames who 95% of the time don't know what the **** to do with McDavid.

Look at how "mediocre" he was before they were eliminated from the playoffs, Gaudreau was ahead of him for points for 70% of the year. McDavid took off the last 5-6 weeks. Even Crosby going for 130 was half way through the year, maybe he slows down.

If McDavid is going to have a 130+ campaign he needs to be consistent for 82 games and it's almost impossible to happen. Kuch and Stammer last year were on pace for insane numbers and they both tapered off hard and both players are no slouches.

There were almost double the amount of PP's awarded back then and over half his 120 points came on the PP where he played with guys like Gonchar one hell of a PP quarterback, and guys like Recchi and Malkin. So more than half of his points scored were with a man or more advantage playing with guys that are the exact opposite of scrubs.

McDavid doesn't have the luxury of that many PP's and those calibers of players to play on it with.
If he did he'd probably be pushing 130-140 pts.

 

[Melrose Munch]

Make the nets bigger so you can find out.

 

[Mbraunm]

When Lemieux came back in the early 2000s he put up 137 points in his first 82 games in an era of stifling defensive systems and similar goals per game as today.

I don’t think that McDavid in his prime is going to be far off from Lemieux ...130 points could be the lower end of his best scoring range. 140+ may even be a possibility. McDavid may become the best offensive player since Lemieux-such astounding abilities.

 

[Chet Manley]

The Oilers need to find him a budget winger that can skate well enough to keep up, is money on tap-ins/presenting stick as a target, and has a decent 1 timer. Maroon fit well minus the 1 timer.

Don't even care if the new guy is built like a horse jockey. Drai/RNH and McDavid are good enough on the boards and defence to cover for a linesmates other deficiencies(the why cheap part).

The PP needs a right handed shot that presents enough of a risk that teams get burned if smothering McDavid on the right boards/corner. Also a point threat, but a healthy Klefbom might fix that. McDavid's talent was neutralized as teams only had to respect to right boards. McDavid and another lefty passed the puck back and forth for 2 min waiting for something to open up elsewhere.

He won the Art Ross with many team issues stacked against and playing ill for about a month. Fix those things up a bit and 130 points seems like a low bar.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

45 Goals and 90 assists are definitely do-able for him. Maybe even 50 goals.


Depends on what happens with league scoring in the coming years really. It was way up this past season and IMO I think the NHL wants even more scoring going forward(Personally I think higher scoring and star players having larger point totals is a great thing to see and creates more excitement both within games and through the full season).

If they find a way to create even more goals in games I can see McDavid having a couple ~130 point seasons. He has that kind of offensive upside.

 

[Bank Shot]

Here is what we know.

-McDavid produced at about the same pace, relative to the league, in 16/17 as he did in 17/18 while his team's PP clicked at a 5th best rate. He did not lap the field that year as you are expecting he would if only the PP was better. The PP was better in 16/17.

He started shooting more about half way through the 17/18 season.

He had one 6+ shot game though the first 40 games, and around 8 of them in the second 40.

He scored 27 goals in the last 40 games.

His game definitely progressed last year as the season went on.

He stated in an interview at the Worlds that working on goal scoring would be his focus this offseason.

Will be interesting to see how that translates.

 

[MessierII]

I think this coming year he’s going to score 50 goals and be at least close to 120 points. Would have happened this year if not for the team having the worst PP% and the least amount of PP’s. Career year he could break into the 140 point range.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

According to HFOilers fans, 400pts, adjusted for 500pts, adjusted gain for about 750.

IN THE FIRST HALF!

 

[Bank Shot]

According to HFOilers fans, 400pts, adjusted for 500pts, adjusted gain for about 750.

IN THE FIRST HALF!

That shade of green looks great on you.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

That shade of green looks great on you.

800? 900?

It's not green, it's actually gold, it's like that dress and the yanny/laurel thing.

 

[TheNumber4]

If Evan Bouchards elite shot and outlet pass can transition to the NHL, look out, McDavid could definately beast to 130 points.

 

[HugginThePost]

I think this coming year he’s going to score 50 goals and be at least close to 120 points. Would have happened this year if not for the team having the worst PP% and the least amount of PP’s. Career year he could break into the 140 point range.

We keep hearing about “if/when the PP is better he’ll score waaaaayyyyyy more points”.

Isn’t he the focal point of said horrible PP?

He scores the majority of his points off the rush, the PP is a different animal. To assume that he is going to start amassing all these PP points rings hollow.

 

[KPower]

When Lemieux came back in the early 2000s he put up 137 points in his first 82 games in an era of stifling defensive systems and similar goals per game as today.

I don’t think that McDavid in his prime is going to be far off from Lemieux ...130 points could be the lower end of his best scoring range. 140+ may even be a possibility. McDavid may become the best offensive player since Lemieux-such astounding abilities.

Are you saying prime McDavid is close to prime Mario?

Because Mario was over 35 with bad back in those 2000's seasons.

Mcdavid is not close to prime Lemieux and never will be.