How many goals will Auston Matthews score this season?

[General Fanager]

Im going with his jersey number. He will get 34 this year.

Just cause of injuries though....

 

[Killer Orcas]

It’s kind of crazy to think if he can’t get healthy soon he might finish this year with still only two 50 goal scoring seasons 9 years into his career, despite likely being over 400 goals. It’s amazing how easily a couple injuries and shortened seasons can impact these things.

50 is a lot harder then people think. To put it into perspective Crosby has exactly one 50 goal season and 600 career goals.

 

[BallardEra]

50 is a lot harder then people think. To put it into perspective Crosby has exactly one 50 goal season and 600 career goals.

At this point he needs 45 goals in 59 games to hit 50.

That's a 62.5 goals pace over 82 games.

 

[BallardEra]

He's currently on pace for 32 goals with 50 games to go.

He's bound to pick it up soon.

Needs 40 in 50 to hit 50 for the season.

 

[Sheppy]

45

 

[BallardEra]

 

[wetcoast]

I took the 41 to 50 option but playing through an injury makes this unlikely.

 

[BallardEra]

Auston Matthews aggravates upper-body injury, won't play Saturday | TSN

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews will not be available Saturday night against the New York Islanders after aggravating the upper-body injury that caused him to miss games last month, reports TSN Hockey Insider Chris Johnston.

www.tsn.ca

 

[BallardEra]

He’s out again for tomorrow. Missing his 14th game of the season.

 

[DeletedUser539]

I think somewhere around 35 goals missed so much time 40 would be impressive think he'll go off for the yoffs though

 

[BallardEra]

I think somewhere around 35 goals missed so much time 40 would be impressive think he'll go off for the yoffs though

Will he even play enough games to get there?

 

[Regal]

2 tonight. 6 in 7 since coming back in the new year. Might still top 40 if he doesn’t miss more time

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

43

 

[bobholly39]

2 tonight. 6 in 7 since coming back in the new year. Might still top 40 if he doesn’t miss more time

Can he still somehow even win the rocket? Numbers seem to imply there could be a chance if he's back to normal moving forward and starts scoring again.

In the past 4 years, he won 3 rockets. A bit of an off-year in 2022-2023. If we exclude that off year, his goal-scoring pace over 82 games in those 3 rocket years is 67 goals over 82 games

Leafs have 36 games to go. If he scores at this same rate over the next 36 games (so, rate of 67 goals over 82 games), that would give him 30 goals, or 47 goals total on the year.

Draisaitl is currently on pace for 56 goals
Point is on pace for 52 goals
After that, Scheifele and a few others on pace for 48 goals

This is down from previous years, where there was often ~4-5 50+ goal scorers, and sometimes a few 60+ or high 50s.

If Draisaitl and Point fall off pace a bit, I think Matthews could still be in the running for rocket.

Technically - everything I said for Matthews hold true for Ovechkin too. He's on pace for 47 goals over 66 games, and he could be in the running for a rocket too. But, Ovechkin is older of course, so I probably prefer Matthews's odds.

 

[Video Nasty]

Can he still somehow even win the rocket? Numbers seem to imply there could be a chance if he's back to normal moving forward and starts scoring again.

In the past 4 years, he won 3 rockets. A bit of an off-year in 2022-2023. If we exclude that off year, his goal-scoring pace over 82 games in those 3 rocket years is 67 goals over 82 games

No chance. He’s not making up a 14 goal deficit with 36 games remaining on a proven 50 goal scorer who has a game in hand.

Your calculation says it all. We can go nuts and give him a 75 goal pace the rest of the way and that’s what it would take to hit 50 on the nose. Draisaitl may not hit 60, but I think he’s getting 55.

Finishing with 40 in what has turned out to be another off year would be a great accomplishment.

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

Assuming he doesn't miss any more games he will play 67 this year. I will guess he ends the year with 45. That would mean he gets 29 in the Leafs remaining 36 games. Steep production, but Matthews has basically scored at that pace the last 3 odd NHL seasons.