Quoting myself from another thread:
I'll make the case for how Crosby
could have ended up the consensus #5 player all-time.
Let's assume that he missed a bit less time during his peak (but he doesn't have perfect health - so he still misses 29 games in 2008, 28 games in 2020, 13 games last year, etc). Specifically let's give him 40 games in 2011, 55 games in 2012, 10 games in 2013, and 5 games in 2015. That's 110 extra games (9% of his current career total).
The biggest issue with Crosby's resume now is he never had an all-time great season. Sure, 2007 and 2014 were very good, but he doesn't have a truly historic season (like Beliveau in 1956, Hull in 1966, Jagr in 1999, Ovechkin in 2008 etc). He was playing exceptionally well in 2011 through 2013 (during those three years, he averaged 132 points per 82 games - Malkin averaged 98, and the closest non-teammate, Stamkos, averaged 95). If Crosby was fully healthy during that period, he would have had one of the greatest peaks of any player in NHL history. Instead, we have a really strong level of performance, but that's based on parts of three seasons mashed together.
If we assume Crosby plays those extra 110 games, he'd have:
- six Art Ross trophies (tied with Howe and Lemieux for the second-most ever) - it's possible he only ends up with five as it's unclear how his return would have impacted Malkin in 2012, who won the Art Ross that year, but worst case he's tied for 4th all-time with Jagr and Esposito.
- 14 years as a top ten scorer (more than anyone except Howe and Gretzky) and 11 years in the top five (also more than anyone except those two legends)
- probably four Hart trophies (2007, 2011, 2013 and probably still 2014 - let's assume voter fatigue in 2012 and 2015), again only Gretzky and Howe would have more
- probably nine years as a Hart finalist (you'd have to think he'd be a finalist in at least two of 2011, 2012 and 2015), which again would rank him behind only Howe and Gretzky
- at least five years as a first-team all-star (four in real life plus at least 2011) and five years as a second-team all-star (four in real life plus 2012) - he'd rank behind Gretzky (8/7) and Beliveau (6/4), but ahead of every other centre in NHL history including Lemieux
- I've often said that it's misleading to look at goals or assists in isolation, but for those that do, he'd have three goal-scoring titles as a playmaking centre (two actual, plus 2011) and possibly four straight assist titles (2012-2015) with three years as runner-up (2007, 2009, 2011)
- I don't think career numbers (especially when unadjusted) are overly informative, but if he plays those extra 110 games, and plays five more seasons (until he's 40 - a longer career, but not exceptional these days for a star player), he likely finishes his career right around 700 goals (as a playmaking centre in a low-scoring era), over 1,200 assists (3rd all-time), and maybe one season away from 2,000 points (something only Gretzky has ever achieved).
- he certainly isn't Clarke or Bergeron defensively, but Crosby massively tilts the ice at ES (R-ON/OFF has its limitations, but in this case, the result it shows - Crosby being a historically great ES performer - is completely consistent with what watching the games tells you)
- Crosby played in three major international tournaments and helped Canada win the gold medal in all three. He was clearly the best player at the 2016 World Cup (leading scorer and tournament MVP). He was good in 2010 (scoring the "golden goal", and was tied for 2nd on the team in scoring). He was definitely underwhelming in 2014 though.
- Crosby is one of only six players in NHL history to score 200+ playoff points (four of the players ahead were on the Oilers dynasty, and he did it in 33 fewer games than Jagr). Crosby could end up in 4th place all-time (or even 3rd if he asks for a trade to contending team).
- Crosby is probably the best playoff performer of the post-lockout era. His critics say that his 2016 Conn Smythe was a lifetime achievement award. But he played on four Stanley Cup finalists. He was probably the team's best player twice (2008 and 2017), runner-up once (2009), and even in 2016 he was one of four players who had a valid case for the trophy. He also has several other very strong (non-SCF) performances - 2010 and 2018 stand out. (How many other players post-2005 approach that resume? Among forwards, Malkin, Kane, and Kucherov can match Crosby's peak playoff performances, but none have sustained that level of play with the same amount of consistency).
If Crosby had this resume, he'd be (more or less) the consensus #5 all-time. I currently have Beliveau fifth, and the resume above looks clearly better to me. And I don't think there would be any reasonable case to rank Jagr, Ovechkin, Hull, Richard, etc above him.
A few caveats so I don't get misquoted on this in the future:
- Crosby doesn't deserve credit for what could have happened. Crosby (like every player) should be judged based on what he actually accomplished, not hypotheticals.
- McDavid looks like he'll be able to put together a regular season resume that should be pretty close to what hypothetical-Crosby could have done. That's extraordinary, and that will give him a legitimate case for #5 all-time. (He needs to do more in the playoffs, but he has time).
- I've assumed that Crosby would have actually maintained his pace in 2011 through 2013. Who knows if that's true? It's concerning that he spent three years playing at a 130-point pace, but only scored 109 and 104 points in the two full seasons that sandwiched that span. That calls into question if that pace was really sustainable.
- I've assumed that nothing changes in Crosby's later career if he's healthy during his peak. It's possible that after September 2016 (with four Hart trophies, five or six scoring titles, three Olympic gold medals - including the "golden goal" and a tournament MVP, and a Stanley Cup), Crosby would have felt like he accomplished enough. He might not have been as motivated the next few seasons and lost out on two Stanley Cups and two Conn Smythes. That's a big part of his legacy. This probably isn't a big issue (as Crosby seems to be remarkably focused and motivated), but there's always a risk in assuming nothing else changes along the way (butterfly effect).
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* Just to show my math on the career totals. As of today Crosby has 548 goals and 949 assists. We'll conservatively assume he ends the season with 550 & 950 (1,500 points). With 110 games at his peak, he would have got at least 50 goals and 95 assists (145 points). Then if he plays five more seasons - let's assume 320 games (to be conservative, we'll assume he misses around one season's worth of games). Crosby's on pace for 93 points this year. Let's be pessimistic and assume that he'll average (from age 36 to 40) 25 goals and 45 assists (70 points) per 82 games. That works out to (roughly) another 95 goals and 175 assists. Add all this together and you get 695 goals, 1,220 assists, and 1,915 points.
