How good of a goal scorer is Gordie Howe?

[JackSlater]

One of the best ever, probably the only underrated part of Howe's game as he gets credit as an all around force constantly and is viewed mostly as a balanced offensive threat.

Though it must be said that he mostly played in a league with 18 top-line forwards.

Either way 8th is basically 8/18 which is not really comparable to 8th today.

I wonder how this new, interesting information will impact the discussion of hockey history in this forum. I will post later after I've done a calculation to guess how many teams there were, if there were 18 first line forwards, in the Original Six era.

 

[Albatros]

If you start losing to middle six players your season has pretty much exited the conversation anyway.

 

[MadLuke]

I think first PP unit can make things a little bit complicated, even if it is not a terrible rough idea (and the other way around fast expension that double first liner obviously do not double competition).

Middle six player when they are Geoffrion, H Richard or Mikita-Hull not on the same line type, that a bit like Crosby-Malkin, Sakic-Forsberg, no shame loosing to second line player on a stacked team.

Goulet was a second line for a lot of his career, how many top 10 in goal finish ?

If Howe is one of the best ever, what does it make Beliveau, he scored a bit more in the playoff, they follow each quite close in gpg every 6 years stretch, would he not be more a candidate for the most underrated goal score, has Howe quite often named very high but you never see Beliveau.

 

[daver]

I wonder how this new, interesting information will impact the discussion of hockey history in this forum. I will post later after I've done a calculation to guess how many teams there were, if there were 18 first line forwards, in the Original Six era.

Look forward to this being put into layman's terms after I have done processing the news that water is wet.

 

[seventieslord]

In that exercise the focus was on goals-per-game average rather than total adjusted goals.

Yes but correct me if I'm wrong, the goals per game average was calculated using their adjusted goals versus their real number of games played, is that correct?

 

[daver]

Though it must be said that he mostly played in a league with 18 top-line forwards.

A look at the Top 10 scorers from '00 to '19 vs. the Top 10 scorers from '46 to '66 sees the #3 scorer in the O6 finishing behind #1/#2 by the same amount as the #5 scorer in the current era, the #5 scorer in the O6 finishing by the same amount as the #10 scorer in the current era.

I.e. Howe's 20 years of Top 5 finishes are more like 20 years of Top 10 finishes.

That is about as far as you can go with trying to consider league size IMO. Any further you have gone too far down the "what if" rabbit hole. Great players produce regardless.

Howe is Top 6 all-time, on a slightly lower tier than the top one which I think includes Hull, Wayne, and Mario.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Yes but correct me if I'm wrong, the goals per game average was calculated using their adjusted goals versus their real number of games played, is that correct?

I believe so

 

[TheBig08]

So was how good of a goal scorer is Gordie Howe?

to make it simpler is overrated as a goal for having so many goals but it took him 1,767 for him to get that many.

 

[overpass]

middle six players

Not really an idea from that era. Second line forwards could win scoring titles because every team played four forwards on the top power play. Some played five.

 

[Albatros]

Not really an idea from that era. Second line forwards could win scoring titles because every team played four forwards on the top power play. Some played five.

If you can't best those guys as a GOAT candidate goal scorer, then you're not.

 

[Michael Farkas]

So, then a Corey Perry or, worse, Jonathan Cheechoo type...?

 

[MadLuke]

to make it simpler is overrated as a goal for having so many goals but it took him 1,767 for him to get that many.

He played almost all of his career in a low scoring environment and a lot of game at old age.

If we look at the original six era (42-67), player with at least 250 games, best gpg

Richard..: .56
Hull.....: .56
Blake....: .47
Howe.....: .47
Beliveau.: .47
Geoffrion: .47

Playoff at least 50 games

Richard..: .62
Hull.....: .54
Beliveau.: .53
Geoffrion: .44
Howe.....: .43
Keon.....: .40

You cannot push him out of the Top 5 goal scorer of the 06 that a lock and probably round the top 3 with Richard-Hull, he won 5 goal scoring title, scored 688, Richard is second at 544 no one else reach 450.

And he still scored a lot of goal after the 06 ended in 2 different leagues.

If you can't best those guys as a GOAT candidate goal scorer, then you're not.

Fair enough, but no one was basing Howe scoring prowess on those top 8 finish, make them Top 20 finish now (which is nice for your tail end)

He has 14 top 5 in goals, 12 top 3 and 5 top 1, no need to spend a lot of time of what he did outside of that if you want.

 

[seventieslord]

I believe so

Then what I'm saying is correct.

Let me explain in another way.

Suppose a player played only in the 1995 lockout season that was 48 games long. Suppose he scored 32 goals in that season. That's an excellent season, that is 55 adjusted goals. If you were to calculate his career adjusted goals per game average you would get 55/48= 1.13 adjusted goals per game. Wow awesome right? He's the greatest adjusted goal scorer of all time. No, not really. Because the reason 32 goals is 55 adjusted goals is because it is extrapolated over a full 82 game season, which the player did not play. Therefore, what he really has is 55 adjusted goals in 82 adjusted games and his career adjusted goals per game average should be counted as such.

This greatly affects the career average of this hypothetical one season player, and certainly it affects other players a lot less when it is only one of many seasons that they played. But it does affect them, considering you are adding approximately 34 career games to the bottom half of the equation and zero goals to the top half.

Make sense?

 

[The Panther]

Either way 8th is basically 8/18 which is not really comparable to 8th today.

Are you aware that there were not only 18 forwards in the sport of hockey back then? There were hundreds and hundreds of competitive forwards who wanted to make the NHL -- just like now. But back then, the pro-ranks weren't watered down.

 

[Overrated]

He played almost all of his career in a low scoring environment and a lot of game at old age.

If we look at the original six era (42-67), player with at least 250 games, best gpg

Richard..: .56
Hull.....: .56
Blake....: .47
Howe.....: .47
Beliveau.: .47
Geoffrion: .47

Playoff at least 50 games

Richard..: .62
Hull.....: .54
Beliveau.: .53
Geoffrion: .44
Howe.....: .43
Keon.....: .40

You cannot push him out of the Top 5 goal scorer of the 06 that a lock and probably round the top 3 with Richard-Hull, he won 5 goal scoring title, scored 688, Richard is second at 544 no one else reach 450.

And he still scored a lot of goal after the 06 ended in 2 different leagues.




Fair enough, but no one was basing Howe scoring prowess on those top 8 finish, make them Top 20 finish now (which is nice for your tail end)

He has 14 top 5 in goals, 12 top 3 and 5 top 1, no need to spend a lot of time of what he did outside of that if you want.

Also Blake and Richard benefited heavily from the extremely high scoring period of the mid 1940s. I'd still put Richard ahead for sure. 3rd for the O6. However there have been many pure goal scorers since. Howe isn't making the top 10 here realistically.

Are you aware that there were not only 18 forwards in the sport of hockey back then? There were hundreds and hundreds of competitive forwards who wanted to make the NHL -- just like now. But back then, the pro-ranks weren't watered down.

It certainly wasn't just like today though was it?

 

[VanIslander]

Adjusted stats, like all stats, can be enlightening or misleading, but they are still derivative, and at best supportive, not definitive.