How does our rebuild compare to others?

[PlayOn]

It would help if we had a forward that was at the level of McDavid, Crosby (the younger version), Mackinnon or Kucherov. Ya, I know those are elite guys, so that’s a high bar & not easy. Our top forwards (Stutzle & Tkachuk) are not at that level from a point production perspective, at least thus far.

Yes, a team could do it by committee, but the 2nd rung or level of players that we have are more like 65 point players. It would be better if they were around 80 point players. Anyhow, have at it. I anticipate the type of response I will get I suppose.

Yeah how far this rebuild can actually go depends a lot on Stützle and Sanderson imo. We need them to basically end up top 5 at their positions in their prime if we want to win. Otherwise we are looking at being a perennial playoff team at best vs a true contender.

 

[Answer]

Rebuild is still in progress

Team looks slow espcially comapred to other young and up-coming Teams like Montreal, Detroit etc.

Vs Teams like Florida and other Top Teams, its usually embarrasing

This Team does play good Team Defense, but at the same time, consistent break downs and lapses

Our top 2 lines fails to sustain any offensive pressure on a consistent bases, like other top Teams do

 

[JD1]

Yeah how far this rebuild can actually go depends a lot on Stützle and Sanderson imo. We need them to basically end up top 5 at their positions in their prime if we want to win. Otherwise we are looking at being a perennial playoff team at best vs a true contender.

I agree with you but it's also true of any rebuild really. You need to be lucky enough to draft elite players and they don't necessarily come along every draft. Even when they do, you need to draft them. And they need to have desire.

Lafreniere was a given but a lot of people on the board wanted Byfield. Where would we be with by field? Or with Drysdale who I wanted.

Look at Toronto. Matthews was the clear cut number 1 ranked guy. In my view, he and Marner are what's wrong in Toronto not what's right.

You need to be lucky when you draft and the people you draft have to have that internal drive to win at all cost.

Fingers crossed we have that with our guys

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Rebuild is still in progress

Team looks slow espcially comapred to other young and up-coming Teams like Montreal, Detroit etc.

Vs Teams like Florida and other Top Teams, its usually embarrasing

This Team does play good Team Defense, but at the same time, consistent break downs and lapses

Our top 2 lines fails to sustain any offensive pressure on a consistent bases, like other top Teams do

Against the Habs you have a point, but I don't think you know what slow is unless you see the Red Wings play.

 

[ijif]

I agree with you but it's also true of any rebuild really. You need to be lucky enough to draft elite players and they don't necessarily come along every draft. Even when they do, you need to draft them. And they need to have desire.

Lafreniere was a given but a lot of people on the board wanted Byfield. Where would we be with by field? Or with Drysdale who I wanted.

Look at Toronto. Matthews was the clear cut number 1 ranked guy. In my view, he and Marner are what's wrong in Toronto not what's right.

You need to be lucky when you draft and the people you draft have to have that internal drive to win at all cost.

Fingers crossed we have that with our guys

Yes, a rebuild does require luck, but teams can do things to increase luck, and some teams, likely due to bias, do not maximize their luck factor. This includes Ottawa.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

...

Look at Toronto. Matthews was the clear cut number 1 ranked guy. In my view, he and Marner are what's wrong in Toronto not what's right.

You need to be lucky when you draft and the people you draft have to have that internal drive to win at all cost.
...

Well, I think this is why teams do interviews before the draft -- they're trying to understand what kind of person they'll be getting.

And I think that also explains why fans are sometimes befuddled by a pick, or why some guys fall well below their draft ranking. We aren't privy to the interview(s) and how the player came across.

 

[lancepitlick]

I think realistically a sustained period of time in the playoffs = success. Unless you are the Leafs, if you make the playoffs 8/10 seasons you should get one decent run out of it.

Hopefully we make the playoffs and get enough games in to get a sense of how some of these guys will perform in the playoffs. So many guys are basically vets with little/no big game experience. They don't even have regular season big game experience!

 

[jbeck5]

5 years might come from how long it took to make the playoffs when the team was fresh from expansion, but there where only 21 teams then...(I think). Old Lou said last week that a rebuild takes 10 years now...I'm guessing that he is taking into account the way expansion works now, the amount of teams drafting making it harder to get talent quickly and things like that. If Dorion didn't Dorion then 5-7 years seems reasonable. A bit longer would be stalled and an even bit longer would be failed.

I think 10 years seems crazy high.

When does the rebuild end? When they make the playoffs or win the cup?

Would be interesting to see how long it took previous cup winners from their rock bottom season to making the playoffs.

Probably closer to 3-4 years for most. Maybe 5.

 

[Norris4Norris]

Well, I think this is why teams do interviews before the draft -- they're trying to understand what kind of person they'll be getting.

And I think that also explains why fans are sometimes befuddled by a pick, or why some guys fall well below their draft ranking. We aren't privy to the interview(s) and how the player came across.

Ya but if we went of off stats instead of how we feel about a guy we would probably be a better team.

I remember seeing DeBrincat's numbers in his draft year and they were ridiculous, but because he was small we never gave him a chance.

Colin White's numbers were middle of the pack but Konecny was a stand out and we picked White due to his "intangibles."

Logan Brown was selected due to his size and his familiarity with the Ottawa area. I am sure Tyler Boucher was a good dude, but he just couldn't play hockey at an elite level and should have gone late in the second round.

I will also concede that Dorion was, and still is, one of the stupidest individuals on planet earth and any other GM would likely have done a better job at character assessment.

 

[Norris4Norris]

I think 10 years seems crazy high.

When does the rebuild end? When they make the playoffs or win the cup?

Would be interesting to see how long it took previous cup winners from their rock bottom season to making the playoffs.

Probably closer to 3-4 years for most. Maybe 5.

Colorado went from being dead last in the league, with Nathan MacKinnon, to being Stanley Cup champions in 5 years. We need to look at how they accomplished that.

 

[bicboi64]

Colorado went from being dead last in the league, with Nathan MacKinnon, to being Stanley Cup champions in 5 years. We need to look at how they accomplished that.

Drafting a generational talent in Makar helps.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Colorado went from being dead last in the league, with Nathan MacKinnon, to being Stanley Cup champions in 5 years. We need to look at how they accomplished that.

The NHL is no longer a copycat league, it's a superstar league. You need multiple elite positional players to win championships. The only teams, since the lockout, that have bucked that trend, arguably, are Carolina 2006, LA 2014, STL 2019. That's 3 out of 19 championship teams.

Only way we're gonna get that in Ottawa is with the top end talent we drafted flourishing into those types of players. Stutzle, Tkachuk and Sanderson need to be premier, elite, inarguable top 3-5 talent at their positions or it's not gonna happen.

 

[Norris4Norris]

The NHL is no longer a copycat league, it's a superstar league. You need multiple elite positional players to win championships. The only teams, since the lockout, that have bucked that trend, arguably, are Carolina 2006, LA 2014, STL 2019. That's 3 out of 19 championship teams.

Only way we're gonna get that in Ottawa is with the top end talent we drafted flourishing into those types of players. Stutzle, Tkachuk and Sanderson need to be premier, elite, inarguable top 3-5 talent at their positions or it's not gonna happen.

I think Sanderson is already a top 5 defenceman with respect o this all around game, and I believe his offense numbers will increase from year to year as he continues to mature.

Tkachuk is interesting. He won't be a top 5 winger with respect to points per game, but he can score, hit and lead this team.

Ullmark is a top 5 goalie. I hope Stutzle will grow into that top 5 role, he certainly is showing his potential by his recent scoring streak.

 

[jbeck5]

I think realistically a sustained period of time in the playoffs = success. Unless you are the Leafs, if you make the playoffs 8/10 seasons you should get one decent run out of it.

Hopefully we make the playoffs and get enough games in to get a sense of how some of these guys will perform in the playoffs. So many guys are basically vets with little/no big game experience. They don't even have regular season big game experience!

I don't think making the playoffs for several years would be a success. You need to win the cup.

I had my wings fan friend over for dinner the other week...and he was all frustrated about how they've missed the playoffs one year more than Ottawa...

I said he has nothing to complain about. He experienced cup wins in 97 and 98...ok, he was 9-10 years old...don't want to count them? Won a cup in 2002 at 14...that's prime teenage bragging years...then won a cup again in 2008...at 20...was able to drink beer and party as cup winners...

He's experienced the ultimate prize...many times...so for all I care, he could not make the playoffs for the next 20 years while Ottawa makes it for 20 years straight...but unless Ottawa wins the cup, I will never get to experience the total bliss that he gets to experience.

So no, making the playoffs for years in a row isn't an accomplishment. We've done that. It's cool but it's nothing special.

We need to win a cup.

That's why Ive been preaching to go for whatever move gives us the best chance at a cup and not whichever move makes us good for long, if that makes any sense.

I would rather have a 3-4 year window as a top 5 team, then a 10-15 year window as a average team that makes the playoffs most years but never really has a chance and is an easy out.

We need to win the cup. Not just make it to the third round or something. I'm not going to be thinking back about beating Montreal and advancing to the second round in 2013 when I'm 70 years old.

Cup or nothing.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I don't think making the playoffs for several years would be a success. You need to win the cup.

I had my wings fan friend over for dinner the other week...and he was all frustrated about how they've missed the playoffs one year more than Ottawa...

I said he has nothing to complain about. He experienced cup wins in 97 and 98...ok, he was 9-10 years old...don't want to count them? Won a cup in 2002 at 14...that's prime teenage bragging years...then won a cup again in 2008...at 20...was able to drink beer and party as cup winners...

He's experienced the ultimate prize...many times...so for all I care, he could not make the playoffs for the next 20 years while Ottawa makes it for 20 years straight...but unless Ottawa wins the cup, I will never get to experience the total bliss that he gets to experience.

So no, making the playoffs for years in a row isn't an accomplishment. We've done that. It's cool but it's nothing special.

We need to win a cup.

That's why Ive been preaching to go for whatever move gives us the best chance at a cup and not whichever move makes us good for long, if that makes any sense.

I would rather have a 3-4 year window as a top 5 team, then a 10-15 year window as a average team that makes the playoffs most years but never really has a chance and is an easy out.

We need to win the cup. Not just make it to the third round or something. I'm not going to be thinking back about beating Montreal and advancing to the second round in 2013 when I'm 70 years old.

Cup or nothing.

On the flip side though, going through long stretches of being as miserable as the team has been the last 7 years, can almost kill it as a hobby.

 

[jbeck5]

On the flip side though, going through long stretches of being as miserable as the team has been the last 7 years, can almost kill it as a hobby.

Oh ya, for sure. But I wonder how much of that is just growing up and having more shit to do.

I know plenty of dads growing up that were obsessed with hockey and knew all the players in the 70s and 80s...but you talk about some rookie with 20 goals and they would be like "who?". They love hockey and would watch, but simply didn't have the time to just read hockey magazines and memorize stats and spend hours on the message forums for information.

I wonder how much of my lack of obsession is from being bad, and how much of it is from growing up?

If the sens were good all these years, would I have kept buying all these jerseys with name bars on them? Maybe, maybe not. Would my room still be black red white and gold? Definitely not. My wife wouldn't have it lol

 

[Golden_Jet]

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[Golden_Jet]

edit: PLEASE IGNORE THIS POST; IT IS BASED ON MISREADING PUCKPEDIA. BUT I BLAME FOREIGN AGENTS.

The thing is that ALL OF Stu, Brady, Sanderson, Cozens, Chabot and Ullmark are, as of today, to be UFAs at the end of the 2027-28 season. And Batherson, Zub gone the year before. And no help from the prospect pool. OK, maaaybe Pinto, Greig, Zetterlund can be internal promotion for some of them in the future, but who's going to replace *them*? Re-signing or extending the core listed above is going to cost a lot of money; we can't fit all of them under whatever the cap will be (official or internal). See for yourself:

https://puckpedia.com/team/ottawa-senators

Maaaaybe Staios can pull off a few more Norris-Cozens type deals, where he can gradually replace some of the core with a younger and cheaper yet just as good piece (because the assumption is that we'll be in the playoff race every year, so we can't be just selling players for picks). So maybe Batherson goes first, Chabot goes next, Ullmark next (Merilainen being for real would be crucial). That would make room under the cap to extend one of Sanderson or Stutzle or Brady or Cozens. But this is easier said than done.

OR, we just keep this core together, replace Batherson and Zub internally when they're gone, use their cap to sign some short-term UFAs to keep the window going one more year, and then:

- either in 2027 we're still in contention and at the end of that season we can try to re-sign some of the core,
- or for whatever reason we suck, and trade all of the soon-to-be UFAs core at the deadline.

In both cases in 2028 we look like we're at the bitter end of the window. And some lean years would be expected. Hopefully in the meantime we'll have some fun with what we have!

Recheck, they are not up in 2027. Click on each player as columns are a bit confusing.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Oh ya, for sure. But I wonder how much of that is just growing up and having more shit to do.

I know plenty of dads growing up that were obsessed with hockey and knew all the players in the 70s and 80s...but you talk about some rookie with 20 goals and they would be like "who?". They love hockey and would watch, but simply didn't have the time to just read hockey magazines and memorize stats and spend hours on the message forums for information.

I wonder how much of my lack of obsession is from being bad, and how much of it is from growing up?

If the sens were good all these years, would I have kept buying all these jerseys with name bars on them? Maybe, maybe not. Would my room still be black red white and gold? Definitely not. My wife wouldn't have it lol

Ya, it surely varies from one person to the next, and this was an unnaturally long rebuild mostly because of PD/EM. You make a good point about the wife lol, but probably more just family adult life in general. As a recently divorced person, I've gone the other way with putting up more memorabilia, but that's a special case, and as I've aged, "collecting" anything feels pointless and a complete waste of money. It has to serve a functional purpose of some kind (even if just at least decorating a wall) or it's pointless junk.

I've always "followed" the Senators, even through the worst of it when it felt like there was no hope under EM/PD, but I definitely didn't watch as much and I would imagine that applied to many. The actual product was awful and doing 82 games of that gets old. I need my hockey to get my blood flowing a bit and have some skin in the game, so it just made me gravitate to watching more Oilers games the last few years than Senators games. Now I'm mostly back and haven't missed a game this year. For some though, that might have been enough to cut the cord and just sort of move on.

 

[zenator]

Where it goes forward, which applies to all teams, is how good is your GM, and your pro/amateur scouts.

Having lots of good prospects (not the Sens) or having a good young core locked up long term with good contracts (the Sens), is not a guarantee of future success. It's what management does going forwards.

Some teams build mainly by getting a bunch of good young players. Others get a few superstars (Colorado, Edmonton). Some draft and develop well (Dallas). Some have wizardly GM work (Las Vegas, Florida). Some it's several factors (Tampa, Washington, Winnipeg).

I'm pretty confident in Steve Staios. His trades and free agent signings have been excellent. The one trade he lost (Chychrun), he had no choice as the player wasn't going to sign, and had a bad season from a bad defensive team and misuse. At least he gets 2 years of an average player that fills a huge positional need.

Pro scouting is way better, with the sweeping changes.

We'll see if he beefs up amateur scouting, as they haven't drafted well for 5 years, although Dorion did trade a couple 1st rounders which didn't help. Right now, it looks like Parekh was the right pick, especially looking how a similar player makes an impact (Hudson). Yakemchuk isn't as dynamic, I'm not giving up on him, he could still be a useful player, but Parekh is so much more dynamic, and would certainly be picked considerably higher in a re-draft.