ALL of their 1sts or just the ones we arbitrarily decided "didn't work out"?
ALL 1sts? No cups, that's for sure. 2008 got us Hossa and I think that was instrumental in getting us to the SCF and then winning the following year because who knows who they obtain if they don't get Hossa and how the 09 team is constructed.
They gave the 2015 1st for Perron who turned into Hagelin who was a big part of HBK and the 2017 Cup. Realistically, no draft pick or prospect we've let go in the cap era has amounted to anything significant. The only argument being the 1st for Perron who turned into Barzel. Are we better off with him down the road, maybe? I've done the analysis. The prospects and players "not with us" are a pretty barren field.
Prospects, I mean that's too hard to say. If Pouliot in this scenario turns into the second coming of Karlsson, Maatta turns into Lidstrom, and Beau Bennett becomes the next Phil Kessel...sure, things could have been different, but it's hard to know where to cap the talent, so it's not a great discussion.
Murray vs MAF - I don't think we get anywhere further with MAF than MM. The playoffs we lost under Murray, there were more issues there than just goaltending.