How bad has our North American Scouting been?

[Frk It]

We're trying to understand why the rebuild is taking so long and weighing how being so bad at drafting from the single biggest talent pool in the world is slowing that rebuild.

We had two kids play amazingly well at the college level this year (Augustine, Plante) and one of the best goalies in the AHL (Cossa).

Lombardi and Mazur have been good in Grand Rapids. Buium took a pretty big step this year. I’m still pretty high on Danielson long term.

Is this regime doing that bad? I don’t think so. And I don’t think bringing up Shawn Matthias is relevant to this re-build whatsoever.

 

[Run the Jewels]

We had two kids play amazingly well at the college level this year (Augustine, Plante) and one of the best goalies in the AHL (Cossa).

Lombardi and Mazur have been good in Grand Rapids. Buium took a pretty big step this year. I’m still pretty high on Danielson long term.

Is this regime doing that bad? I don’t think so. And I don’t think bringing up Shawn Matthias is relevant to this re-build whatsoever.

Hey, I'm old enough to remember when Jared McIssac, Cross Hanas, and Carter Mazur were supposed to be three of our better NA prospects. The fact remains we have zero NA players on the roster who've played 100+ NHL games since Michael Rasmussen was drafted 8 years ago.

I do hope those guys you mentioned turn into quality NHL players, but you run the risk of always shifting the goalposts for the next wave of shiny prospects in their D+1 or D+2 year to become quality NHL'ers.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

perosnally, i look at our roster and our prospect pool and i feel pretty damn good about it, even without any outside additions. add in this year's first, which could be anywhere from 5 to 15, and it looks like a team that could compete with anyone

debrincat - larkin - raymond
buchelnikov - kasper - brandsegg-nygard
lombardi - danielson - mazur
soderblom - plante - kiiskinen

johansson - seider
edvinsson - sandin-pellikka
buium - johansson

cossa
augustine

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I will always marvel at how binary our drafting process is. Everything is either a "Draper/Wright Pick" or a "Hakan Pick." It makes sense now why we can't seem to put together a draft list like every other team in the league. Formulating such a list requires some consensus and agreement, something this oil and water duo just doesn't have in them. Thus, we find ourselves allocating picks in advance between Hakan and Draper/Wright. What is even more perplexing is how that Hakan always, always, always wants to pick a Euro kid over a North American kid at all times (as if he would have taken Carlsson over Bedard if given the chance). It is really amazing. I marvel how these two have any working relationship at all given their inability to agree on anything. I wonder if other organizations have similar struggles with their amateur scouting departments.


We haven't gotten enough out of our 2nd round + picks period. This is hardly a new revelation. First round drafting in the late Holland years was also pretty bad. I don't fault Yzerman for spending a lot of draft capital on defensemen early in his tenure. They naturally take longer to develop.

 

[HisNoodliness]

I debated adding Hakan's draft record when covering our poor NA scouting when it comes to forwards, but the post was already quite long. Regardless, your view is simply wrong. Even when Hakan wasn't given great draft picks, he still produced plenty of quality players who were capable of hitting 500 NHL games.

Tomas Tatar
Gus Nyquist
Johan Franzen
Valtteri Filppula
Jiri Hudler
Tomas Fleischmann
Calle Jarnkrok
Mattias Janmark

And that's just forwards with few being in the first two rounds.

All of those guys took a long time to make it and were accrued over a long time. Draper hasn't been our head of scouting long enough to have a list like that. Let's compare what Hakan has done with late round picks since Draper became the head of our amateur scouting in 2020. Looks like he's also produced 0 NHL players with non-firsts since 2020. Has he drafted a bunch of promising guys that look likely to help as soon as next year? Yep. They just need a bit more time. And that's the point.

Late round picks take a long time to make it. We haven't given Draper early picks. None of his picks have made it yet. Maybe that's because we're judging late round picks too early. Maybe that's because he's done a bad job. Looking at the way our prospects are developing, it feels a lot more like the former to me.

If you want to make an argument that we need to change our NA scouting, then form your argument around our current NA scouting team. Do you disagree that our current crop of NA prospects are promising? Do you disagree that Draper deserves some credit for Hakan's picks as well? Do you think we prioritize one quality too heavily or ignore one? Do you have anything besides the utter failure of Tyler Wright to use as evidence when forming your argument? Our North American scouting in the Holland Wright era was terrible. There's no doubt about it. It doesn't matter anymore. It set the rebuild back and emptied our prospect pool. We've since changed staff and have a prospect pool full of promising players.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Hey, I'm old enough to remember when Jared McIssac, Cross Hanas, and Carter Mazur were supposed to be three of our better NA prospects. The fact remains we have zero NA players on the roster who've played 100+ NHL games since Michael Rasmussen was drafted 8 years ago.

I do hope those guys you mentioned turn into quality NHL players, but you run the risk of always shifting the goalposts for the next wave of shiny prospects in their D+1 or D+2 year to become quality NHL'ers.

Please don't tell me you're making a talking point out of the fact Veleno was traded a few days ago.

Also, asking for 100+ NHL games essentially eliminates the 2022 (3 players), 2023 (4 players) and 2024 (0 players) from the conversation.

Since we drafted NA players with 100+ games in both 2017 and 2018, I'll look at the 2019-2021 drafts.

2019: 1 NA pick in the first 3 rounds (Mastrosimone)
2020: 2 NA picks in the first 3 rounds (Hanas/Sebrango)
2021: 3 NA picks in the first 3 rounds (Cossa, Buium, Mazur)

You probably understand where I'm going with this?

NA draft picks with 100+ NHL games outside the first 3 rounds:
2019: 3 (Kastelic, Spence, Thrun)
2020: 0
2021: 0

You can't evaluate our drafting in a vacuum using arbitrary benchmarks that are essentially impossible to live up to.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Please don't tell me you're making a talking point out of the fact Veleno was traded a few days ago.

Also, asking for 100+ NHL games essentially eliminates the 2022 (3 players), 2023 (4 players) and 2024 (0 players) from the conversation.

Since we drafted NA players with 100+ games in both 2017 and 2018, I'll look at the 2019-2021 drafts.

2019: 1 NA pick in the first 3 rounds (Mastrosimone)
2020: 2 NA picks in the first 3 rounds (Hanas/Sebrango)
2021: 3 NA picks in the first 3 rounds (Cossa, Buium, Mazur)

You probably understand where I'm going with this?

NA draft picks with 100+ NHL games outside the first 3 rounds:
2019: 3 (Kastelic, Spence, Thrun)
2020: 0
2021: 0

You can't evaluate our drafting in a vacuum using arbitrary benchmarks that are essentially impossible to live up to.

Veleno is irrelevant, Iike the overwhelming majority of our draft picks out of North America since 2000.

It's funny how the people who want to defend how poor our drafting has been out of the biggest talent pool in the world want to always shift the goal posts. On the one hand, I can't blame them given how bad our drafting has been. On the other, if you are critical of how Steve Yzerman has run the franchise, I would think you'd want to look at the area that has been the biggest failure: North American scouting. It's like saying Yzerman has done a poor job but you don't blame Derek Lalonde and wanted to keep him on as coach. In this one case, Yzerman made a change and the improvement was immediate.

Not a single reply here has made the case for our North American scouting. It's basically one of two replies:

You need to compare our scouting to every other team.
or
Hey, the guys in our latest drafts are going to be the ones that hit, you just need to give them more time!

Regardless, I don't find either 'defense' compelling, let alone having seen a single response that gives me any reason to reconsider my view on our scouting.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

Veleno is irrelevant, Iike the overwhelming majority of our draft picks out of North America since 2000.

It's funny how the people who want to defend how poor our drafting has been out of the biggest talent pool in the world want to always shift the goal posts. On the one hand, I can't blame them given how bad our drafting has been. On the other, if you are critical of how Steve Yzerman has run the franchise, I would think you'd want to look at the area that has been the biggest failure: North American scouting. It's like saying Yzerman has done a poor job but you don't blame Derek Lalonde and wanted to keep him on as coach. In this one case, Yzerman made a change and the improvement was immediate.

Not a single reply here has made the case for our North American scouting. It's basically one of two replies:

You need to compare our scouting to every other team.
or
Hey, the guys in our latest drafts are going to be the ones that hit, you just need to give them more time!

Regardless, I don't find either 'defense' compelling, let alone having seen a single response that gives me any reason to reconsider my view on our scouting.

outstanding, you've identified the problem. case closed. step 2: what are you going to do about it? because complaining about it on the internet every single day isn't a very compelling solution

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Not as bad as our pro scouting which is the department I think we need to take an ax to this offseason. I doubt it with Stevie’s brother there, not the first to say it in this thread but I want to iron that department out before we talk amateur scouting.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Not as bad as our pro scouting which is the department I think we need to take an ax to this offseason. I doubt it with Stevie’s brother there, not the first to say it in this thread but I want to iron that department out before we talk amateur scouting.

Yeah, as I've mentioned in previous replies and in the past, I think our pro scouting is terrible. But prospect scouting is essential if you are going to have a long run of success, while pro scouting should be limited to areas where your prospect pool hasn't hit.

So they both need a lot of work, but if we don't fix NA prospect scouting, our foundation is going to continue to be s**t.

 

[Frk It]

So they both need a lot of work, but if we don't fix NA prospect scouting, our foundation is going to continue to be s**t.

How do you look at the Plante, Augstine, Cossa, Mazur/Lombardi picks and not think we have improved and are on the right path?

The only gripe I think you could have with this current regime is that they threw a pick away drafting Brady Cleveland. Outside of that, I just don't see a lot of reasons to be mad.

You need to stop lumping in this current regime with the failures of the past regime, and then you will realize we are doing just fine.

 

[Run the Jewels]

How do you look at the Plante, Augstine, Cossa, Mazur/Lombardi picks and not think we have improved and are on the right path?

The only gripe I think you could have with this current regime is that they threw a pick away drafting Brady Cleveland. Outside of that, I just don't see a lot of reasons to be mad.

You need to stop lumping in this current regime with the failures of the past regime, and then you will realize we are doing just fine.

If our North American scouting starts drafting guys capable of comprising part of the core of a competitive team I'll be happy to change my tune. That simply hasn't happened.

 

[Frk It]

If our North American scouting starts drafting guys capable of comprising part of the core of a competitive team I'll be happy to change my tune. That simply hasn't happened.

Yeah I think we are just early with some of these criticisms. Long term I think they will provide us our starting goalie of the future and 2-3 forwards in the top 9.

Relative to what slots they have drafted at, I think that’s a pretty good job.

But we will see soon enough.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Yeah, as I've mentioned in previous replies and in the past, I think our pro scouting is terrible. But prospect scouting is essential if you are going to have a long run of success, while pro scouting should be limited to areas where your prospect pool hasn't hit.

So they both need a lot of work, but if we don't fix NA prospect scouting, our foundation is going to continue to be s**t.

I just don't get how you can think our drafting is a bigger problem than our pro scouting. Our amateur scouting as a whole has been great. We're yet to miss on a first round pick in the Draper/Yzerman era. Players we drafted make up the core of our team. We have a huge stable of prospect depth.

What brings the team down? Chiarot in the top 4. Compher/Copp at 2C. Tarasenko and ... and... Who are our other bottom 6 forwards again? Petry, Gustafsson and Holl practicing their pylon impression. Our goalies falling to pieces for long stretches of time. That's why we lose. We signed and traded for bad players.

We even seem poised to possibly out draft our mistakes in trade/FA. AlJo is suring up our top 4, Big Elmer is making me believe he has top 6 potential. ASP seems on track to finish the defense core. Between Mazur, Danielson, Buchelnikov, MBN, Lombardi, etc we're pretty likely to get another couple top 6 forwards and a couple more to fill out the bottom 6 with meaningful contributors. We have two grade A goalie prospects. If you squint your eyes and tilt your head, we have a halfway realistic shot at filling every significant hole in our lineup with a draft pick. It won't happen but that it looks halfway realistic is a huge accolade for our drafting. On the whole we've over performed our draft spots in the Yzerman/Draper era.

You can complain that we seem to have missed on Mastrosimone, Dylan James and Cross Hanas. I didn't love those bets, but it's not like they were outlandish. You can complain that we lit a draft pick on fire with Brady Cleveland. Kienan Draper seems like a nepotism pick that we didn't need to make. I'm not saying that our drafting has been perfect. I've been very critical of it at times. I ranted about almost every pick in the Wright era. But on the whole, in the Draper era, we've done really well on the draft floor. It's built the core of our team.

The question for this team is whether we're capable of surrounding our drafted players with decent trade and Free Agent additions.

 

[The Flying Octopus]

Who was the last good Canadian player we developed?

Crickets

 

[Run the Jewels]

Crickets

Kyle motha f**king Quincey! But seriously, it's either Mathieu Dandenault or Darren McCarty.

1991 was the most recent solid draft for Canadians:

Martin Lapointe
Jamie Pushor
Chris Osgood
Mike Knuble

 

[DoMakc]

Yeah, that the biggest issue Red Wings have right now, spending high picks on Europeans who are succeeding, not having NA picks with more than 100 games. Let's ignore the fact that only Seider and Raymond have more than 100 games from Yzerman, mix together McDonald, Wright and Draper. And that's 100% Copp's fault. Since his injury people just don't have something to moan and bitch around, so they come up with random topics to keep complaining

 

[The Flying Octopus]

Yeah, that the biggest issue Red Wings have right now, spending high picks on Europeans who are succeeding, not having NA picks with more than 100 games. Let's ignore the fact that only Seider and Raymond have more than 100 games from Yzerman, mix together McDonald, Wright and Draper. And that's 100% Copp's fault. Since his injury people just don't have something to moan and bitch around, so they come up with random topics to keep complaining

 

[rbartnik]

Regardless, I don't find either 'defense' compelling, let alone having seen a single response that gives me any reason to reconsider my view on our scouting.

Who's the top-4 defenseman we missed out on after taking Gibson and Cleveland?

After Buium?

After McIsaac?

What if there weren't better choices at the position?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Veleno is irrelevant, Iike the overwhelming majority of our draft picks out of North America since 2000.

You set up the 100+ game benchmark yourself! What hell dude lol.

Not a single reply here has made the case for our North American scouting.

1. Most of our "premium" picks were out of Europe for Yzerman's first few drafts
2. We have some promising NA prospects who should start to filter into the NHL soon.

Not sure why it has to be more complicated than that.

It's like saying Yzerman has done a poor job but you don't blame Derek Lalonde and wanted to keep him on as coach.

Not a terrible analogy given that I think most people agree the roster is not one that's easy to get good results with. If the NA scouts only work with late round picks, it's silly to expect a bunch of great players to materialize. We can identify flaws in what Lalonde was doing and what our NA scouts are doing, while also keeping in context that they weren't exactly being set up for success.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Some people are incapable of seeing past the status quo, and so they always defend it.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Some people are incapable of seeing past the status quo, and so they always defend it.

Or maybe you're just ... Wrong? Form rational, defensible arguments. Compare them with the arguments that others make.

If you make a thread with a bad take, provide clearly cherry-picked stats where most of what supports your point is from a clearly irrelevant time period and then resort to vague, ad hominem posts instead of rebuffing our arguments with evidence of your own, then you're just trolling.

I've given you solid arguments about your post, and this is the best you've got? Come on