Hot Takes Time - Which First Round Prospect Do You Think is Way Overhyped and Why?

[TheUnusedCrayon]

Here's my list:

Jackson Smith: has all of the raw tools but has no mind for the game. Is a drastically different player when under pressure (which he will be at the NHL level) and often throws suicides to his teammates. He's magical when allowed a whole zone to skate out of but is a turnover machine otherwise. I think his style of offense will be neutered at the pro level significantly, and I think he will go high in the draft and bust out. Also his defense is below average even at the CHL level.

Brady Martin: maybe I've got a bad sample size but I really don't see this amazing motor that everybody claims he has. I see a lot of gliding whenever I watch his shift by shifts and his backchecking is super inconsistent and in the defensive zone his scanning is poor and often puts him out of position.

Caleb Desnoyers: has the skill but I don't think he should be anywhere close to top 5 in the draft like others say he should be. He's not a huge driver of play which will limit his production a lot and I don't think he has enough other intangibles to make him a top 10 pick. With that said I think he will still make the NHL as he does have the tool kit, I just don't think he's nearly the great prospect many people claim he is.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I don't see the high-end upside everyone talks about with Roger McQueen. He plays a very straightforward game and lacks creativity and playmaking ability, despite possessing nice hands.

Lynden Lakovic is the real boom/bust prospect out of the WHL this year IMO, much more advanced game but a lot more risks associated with his projection than McQueen, health notwithstanding.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the only guy that I'd say is "overhyped" is Martin, but I think that's going to be a cold take here. He was looking like a mid 1st that had a great U-18 tournament, and is now possibly a top-5 pick because of it. He should be going somewhere in the 10-15 range in this draft but is going to get comically overdrafted.

I also think McQueen's upside is overhyped, but I still think of him as a good prospect. I just view him as more of a shutdown 2C upside guy, not this very skilled 1C that I've seen some scouts compare him to. Elite Prospects compared him to Malkin which I find laughable, he's a lot closer to someone like Gabe Vilardi.

I don't think Smith is overhyped, I think his upside is immense but he's just a super low hockey IQ player that will either bust or succeed based on that. I also don't think Desnoyers is overhyped, I think most people have him as a Danault upside top-6 center and I think that's pretty appropriate.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Horcoff - Massive jump in the rankings based off a small sample size in the NCAA where he put up decent numbers, but wasn't very impactful besides getting pucks bounced off him into the net on the PP, and he's also getting overhyped due to his last name and combine showing. Don't see the upside to take him round 1.

Nesbitt - I like his size, smarts and defensivie play, but this is a guy with limited talent and quickness/pace. He's great around the net, but it's easy to put pucks in the net getting fed by Protas and Greentree on the PP. Adam Lowry keeps getting thrown around as the comparable but he could easily end up being like Frederik Gauthier. Sounds like he's going in the teens but I wouldn't consider him until the late 1st.

Fiddler - Good tools but the IQ is questionable and I don't think he's as good defensively or as gritty as some of the other big defensive D in this draft. His 33 points may be giving people the impression he's more of a two-way guy, but he's not going to be getting PP time at the NHL level and I don't expect he'll ever contribute much offensively. More of a day 2 guy for me.

Schmidt - Talented and speedy but he's tiny and really lacks intelligence. Was shocking how bad his decision making was at the U18s. May be more of a day 2 guy after his production drop-off in the 2nd half of the year. Wouldn't touch him till the 3rd.

Vansaghi - Has all the makings of a good 4th liner in the AJ Greer mold, but that's a bad investment return on a 1st round pick. He's never shown me anything to think he's more than a bottom of the lineup guy and I can't justify bunting with a 1st on a guy like that.

Aitcheson - Love the physicality, but he plays too much like a rover for my liking and I think he'll end up being more of a defensive D at the NHL level, as his goal scoring will drop once he's reined in more in the pros. Still has a good chance to be a solid top 4 guy, but he's getting some top 10 hype and I wouldn't pick him nearly that early. Late teens at the earliest IMO.

 

[wmupreds]

McQueen. Once in a while the toolsy big guy with middling production develops and pans out but more often than not they don’t. Add in the injury concerns and I’m not touching him, not as high as he’s likely to go anyway

 

[Frk It]

Have yet to see a compelling argument for why Hensler should be ranked in the teens.

 

[Hinterland]

100% agree with others re Smith. Ceiling is there so not really overhyped but he is very boom or bust due to low hockey IQ and a certain lack of vision.

I don't know how you can honestly question Desnoyers' ability to drive play though. He's as good of a playmaker as you can probably get. His vision is second to none. His wrist injury is a concern though. It has clearly hindered his ability to take faceoffs, engage in physical battles and properly shoot the puck. Assuming his wrist is gonna fully recover then I don't see any problems with drafting Desnoyers as early as in the top5.

 

[samsagat]

I really love Brady Martin's game, but him considered in the top 5 is nonsense to me.
I don't see the big offensive talent in him, his skating is average and he's not creative.
He has middle 6 potential and really good intangibles, but earlier than 10th I wouldn't consider him.

Aitcheson between 10-15th?
He's really spectacular but can he focus? He's all over the place, trying to make an impact but at the end of the day he's a defenseman and his focus should be to defend 1st and foremost ..
He'll have to change his game to make the NHL and by doing that, he'll lose some of his flash n dash that makes him supposedly attractive to some.
And if he doesn't change his game.. he won't make it.

Spence
He's one of the oldest guy in this draft and haven't really progressed since last year.
He's a 3rd liner at best and is smaller than originally thought.
I've seen him middle of the 1st rd sometimes but for me he's more of an end of 1st/early 2nd.

 

[brrt]

I think almost everyone have become overrated in this draft, simply because it's more fun to imagine we're arguing about which future superstar we want our favorite team to draft instead of which type of middle-6er we want. No fun thinking you're arguing about which of Glass, Newhook, Rasmussen or a couple of busts you want to see get picked at #6.

I believe this class will turn out similar to the 2012 class with no more than 1-2 1st line forwards (lets say Martone will become Forsberg and Frondell will become the Hertl of this class). But a good chunk of solid defensemen, mostly coming from all the big defenders that should get drafted somewhere around the 2nd round.

 

[dr1234]

I’m a fan of Carbonneau but scratch my head when I see him ranked in the 8-13 range. Sure it’s a down year but his play style carrying the puck in the Q is fairly simple I find; just a lot of straight line skating against sub-par Q defenders. I think he’ll likely overcome it but I personally wouldn’t pick him before 20 this year.

 

[rocketdan9]

Not overhyped... but some weaknesses that could be problematic at the next level.

- Hagens. He is small in height and in size. His scoring ability is overrated imo. Not many ways to score outside of a decent short distance wrist shot. Some decent moves closer to the net. But it doesn't seem like he was near the net enough to even have a chance to execute it.

- Martone . His skating is clunky. His start and stops ... there is like a 1 sec lag. His off puck interests is not great. He floats around too much. Which can again comedown to weak skating skills. If his skating was good. He would have been easily the 1st pick.

- O'Brien. Similar to Martone. So so skater. Looks like bambi on skates. There is not much power behind those strides. He can't skate/power through contact at the moment. If his skating was better... would be a top 3 pick. Great hands and offensive instincts.

- Mrtka. He is a little too finesee y for his height/size. His checks lack pop. Can be pushed a little around the net.

- Frondell - the tools to dominate is there. But from watching him U18.... he seems a little too pedestrian at times. Could be more nastier imo. Skating could be a little more explosive. Looks like has elite complimentary top 6 potential than a head honcho.

- Martin - one of my favorite prospects. But not without concerns. His scoring ability in tight is rudimentary. Like trying to score goals through the goalie instead of making a move or picking a top corner. It could become harder to thread the needle at the NHL level. Has a cannon of a shot but is not especially accurate.

 

[qcal1427]

I legit think that if Martin lived in the suburbs instead of on a farm he would be in the 10-15 range

 

[Thrasymachus]

Islander fan...

Schaefer is going to be a good player, I can tell, but the hype around him is starting to get almost too good to be true.

 

[rocketdan9]

Islander fan...

Schaefer is going to be a good player, I can tell, but the hype around him is starting to get almost too good to be true.

This might sound like a strange observation... but his shoulders to neck area looks vulnerable. He has a long neck and needs to develop much stronger traps/shoulders to prevent the type of injury he sustained.

 

[EXTRAS]

This might sound like a strange observation... but his shoulders to neck area looks vulnerable. He has a long neck and needs to develop much stronger traps/shoulders to prevent the type of injury he sustained.

 

[doublechili]

Not saying he's overhyped, and I'm just a guy who posts on a hockey board, but when I watch Misa's highlight video virtually all that I see are relatively easy goals from between the dots. Maybe if I saw him play games instead of just watching his goals I'd see more, but his goals don't look like the chances you generally get in the NHL.

 

[rocketdan9]

View attachment 1054879

Thats not a neck. Its a treetrunk between the head and shoulders.

 

[viceroy]

Horcoff - ...he put up decent numbers, but wasn't very impactful besides getting pucks bounced off him into the net on the PP...

Luckily that's a transferable skill to the NHL.

Aitcheson - ...I think he'll end up being more of a defensive D at the NHL level, as his goal scoring will drop once he's reined in more in the pros.

I generally distrust a player who's too physically developed in the Juniors, no room to grow. A guy with his size, 6'1", if he tries to bully in the NHL is gonna get sat down real quick.

 

[rocketdan9]

Not saying he's overhyped, and I'm just a guy who posts on a hockey board, but when I watch Misa's highlight video virtually all that I see are relatively easy goals from between the dots. Maybe if I saw him play games instead of just watching his goals I'd see more, but his goals don't look like the chances you generally get in the NHL.

The thing with Misa... he makes things look easy. Obviously at the next level it won't be as easy. But people banking on ... his processing speed and pace of play to continue to out-develop his peers.

Example an impressive thing he will do. Hard forcheck, finish a biting bodycheck, retrieve the loose puck, pass it to a trailing forward. Instantaneously, skate to an open spot or go to the net to try to tap in a rebound.

Imo this is why he(and his habits on the ice) is considered to be closer to NHL ready than some. Many of his goals were not the pretty play types. Tap ins, hunting for rebounds, getting to the open spots quickly to create a scoring chance. On top of this, he will harass opposing players - try to get the puck back. Good positional awareness.

Is he elite offensively like a Mckenna... no. But he is well rounded and excelled in all situations in the CHL. 5 v 5, PP, PK. passing, goal scoring, steals, hits etc. Stats monster.

 

[TheUnusedCrayon]

Have yet to see a compelling argument for why Hensler should be ranked in the teens.

Ooh I have a take on this! He does a lot of things right just lacks the polish. He can walk a line and use his edges on the blue very efficiently and has good agility however his hands need time to catch up with his skating. With a few years of refinement he could be a very good quarterback for a powerplay. He did a lot of things right offensively this year but was pretty snakebitten. The style he plays is pretty good and if he can improve on some of the tools he does have he could become a pretty damn good 2 way player.

I actually think people are really undervaluing the tools he has. They're there, they just need some refinement and improvement.

 

[rocketdan9]

Ooh I have a take on this! He does a lot of things right just lacks the polish. He can walk a line and use his edges on the blue very efficiently and has good agility however his hands need time to catch up with his skating. With a few years of refinement he could be a very good quarterback for a powerplay. He did a lot of things right offensively this year but was pretty snakebitten. The style he plays is pretty good and if he can improve on some of the tools he does have he could become a pretty damn good 2 way player.

I actually think people are really undervaluing the tools he has. They're there, they just need some refinement and improvement.

He is a very good skater for his size. 4 way mobility. I also like the way he can rush up the ice with the puck.... even though like you said, his hands are not there yet.

His ability to be a good student and understand how to improve his skills to unlock his exceptional toolset will be key.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Aitcheson - don’t see him as a RD1 talent at all

Fiddler - usually like when big guys are posied with the puck under pressure so want to like him.. but all he does is get walked and burned and lost in coverage every time I see him, and he’s not dynamic offensively. So what does he do?

Eric Nilson - seems to be a public favorite. I just don’t see much talent/upside even if he’s very smart. Kinda bland tools imo.

 

[boredmale]

Not overhyped... but some weaknesses that could be problematic at the next level.

- Hagens. He is small in height and in size. His scoring ability is overrated imo. Not many ways to score outside of a decent short distance wrist shot. Some decent moves closer to the net. But it doesn't seem like he was near the net enough to even have a chance to execute it.

- Martone . His skating is clunky. His start and stops ... there is like a 1 sec lag. His off puck interests is not great. He floats around too much. Which can again comedown to weak skating skills. If his skating was good. He would have been easily the 1st pick.

- O'Brien. Similar to Martone. So so skater. Looks like bambi on skates. There is not much power behind those strides. He can't skate/power through contact at the moment. If his skating was better... would be a top 3 pick. Great hands and offensive instincts.

- Mrtka. He is a little too finesee y for his height/size. His checks lack pop. Can be pushed a little around the net.

- Frondell - the tools to dominate is there. But from watching him U18.... he seems a little too pedestrian at times. Could be more nastier imo. Skating could be a little more explosive. Looks like has elite complimentary top 6 potential than a head honcho.

- Martin - one of my favorite prospects. But not without concerns. His scoring ability in tight is rudimentary. Like trying to score goals through the goalie instead of making a move or picking a top corner. It could become harder to thread the needle at the NHL level. Has a cannon of a shot but is not especially accurate.

So basically 6 of the top 10 prospects. lol

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Hensler just seems like a vanilla steady-Eddie middle pairing guy at best

 

[koivalev]

I think Jake O'Brien is consistently ranked about 10 spots too high. Way too reliant on time and space and PP scoring for my taste.