CHL/NCAA

[Corso]

If the rumors are true about 19 year olds being able to play in the AHL soon, it will be very interesting to see how that shakes up even more. I have been on record saying that with the new landscape, I think that would actually be good for the CHL/OHL to keep D+1 players and them not going NCAA.

Agree...for the very elite players

 

[Bra Wavers]

Is anyone keeping track of all of the OHL -> NCAA commitments? I tried to dig them all up, let me know if I missed any:

Jackson Parsons - Clarkson U
Calem Mangone - LSSU
Cedrick Guindon - U of Vermont
Noah Morneau - Bowling Green State
Jacob Leblanc - MercyHurst U
Andrew Leblanc - MercyHurst U
Tyson Doucette - Colgate U
Owen Van Steensel - Clarkson U
Evan Konyen - RIT
Caedan Carlisle - U of Notre Dame
Pano Fimis - U of Notre Dame
Adrian Misaljevic - Clarkson U
Zachary Wigle - RIT
Noah Van Vliet - Sacred Heart U
Will Gerrior - U of Maine
P.J. Forgione - U of Vermont
Nolan Collins - Penn State
Kocha Delic - Miami U (Ohio)
Gavin Bryant - Sacred Heart U
Jonathan Melee - Sacred Heart U
Bruce McDonald - Robert Morris U
Zach Filak - U of Vermont
Nathan Krawchuk - RPI
Austin Elliott - U Mass-Lowell
Max Namestnikov - Bemidji State
Andrew Oke - LSSU
Evan Van Gorp - U of Maine
Cole Brown - U of Notre Dame
Nicholas De Angelis - U of New Hampshire
Donovan McCoy - Providence College
Collin MacKenzie - RIT
Alec Leonard - Bentley U
Masen Wray - College of the Holy Cross
Jake Karabela - Ohio State
Charlie Schenkel - Robert Morris U
Ryan Abraham - Michigan Tech
Henry Mews - U of Michigan
Tnias Mathurin - U Mass-Lowell
Noah Powell - Arizona State U
Easton Wainwright - Colgate U
Matthew Mayich - Clarkson U
Luke Misa - Penn State
Ethan Hay - Miami U (Ohio)
Sam Hillebrandt - Ohio State
Malcolm Spence - U of Michigan
Beau Jelsma - Providence College
Anthony Romani - Michigan State
Kristian Epperson - U of Denver
Sam Alfano - Arizona State
Dalyn Wakely - U Mass-Lowell
Jack Ivankovic - U of Michigan
Spencer Sova - U of Nebraska-Omaha
Jacob Oster - U of Vermont
Pierce Mbuyi - Penn State
Mathew Mania - U of Michigan

That's a scary list at first glance. But if you separate out the players that aged out, it's a much shorter list

Aged Out:
Jackson Parsons - Clarkson U 2004
Calem Mangone - LSSU 2004
Cedrick Guindon - U of Vermont 2004
Noah Morneau - Bowling Green State 2004
Jacob Leblanc - MercyHurst U 2004
Andrew Leblanc - MercyHurst U 2004
Tyson Doucette - Colgate U 2004
Owen Van Steensel - Clarkson U 2004
Evan Konyen - RIT 2004
Caedan Carlisle - U of Notre Dame 2004
Pano Fimis - U of Notre Dame 2004
Adrian Misaljevic - Clarkson U 2004
Zachary Wigle - RIT 2004
Noah Van Vliet - Sacred Heart U 2004
Will Gerrior - U of Maine 2004
P.J. Forgione - U of Vermont 2004
Nolan Collins - Penn State 2004
Kocha Delic - Miami U (Ohio) 2004
Gavin Bryant - Sacred Heart U 2004
Jonathan Melee - Sacred Heart U 2004
Bruce McDonald - Robert Morris U 2004
Zach Filak - U of Vermont 2004
Austin Elliott - U Mass-Lowell 2004
Max Namestnikov - Bemidji State 2004
Andrew Oke - LSSU 2004
Nicholas De Angelis - U of New Hampshire 2004
Collin MacKenzie - RIT 2004
Alec Leonard - Bentley U 2004
Jake Karabela - Ohio State 2004
Charlie Schenkel - Robert Morris U 2004
Ryan Abraham - Michigan Tech 2004
Tnias Mathurin - U Mass-Lowell 2004
Matthew Mayich - Clarkson U 2004
Beau Jelsma - Providence College 2004
Sam Alfano - Arizona State 2004
Dalyn Wakely - U Mass-Lowell 2004
Spencer Sova - U of Nebraska-Omaha 2004
Jacob Oster - U of Vermont 2004

Would have been OAs/USports/AHL:
Nathan Krawchuk - RPI 2005
Cole Brown - U of Notre Dame 2005
Donovan McCoy - Providence College 2005
Noah Powell - Arizona State U 2005
Easton Wainwright - Colgate U 2005
Luke Misa - Penn State 2005
Ethan Hay - Miami U (Ohio) 2005
Sam Hillebrandt - Ohio State 2005
Anthony Romani - Michigan State 2005
Mathew Mania - U of Michigan 2005

The rest:
Evan Van Gorp - U of Maine 2006
Masen Wray - College of the Holy Cross 2006
Henry Mews - U of Michigan 2006
Malcolm Spence - U of Michigan 2006
Kristian Epperson - U of Denver 2006
Jack Ivankovic - U of Michigan 2007
Pierce Mbuyi - Penn State 2008

And then finally, if you look at the year of their commitment, some are coming back anyway before their commitment starts:

Commitment is for the future:
Evan Van Gorp - U of Maine 2006 - 2027-2028
Masen Wray - College of the Holy Cross 2006 - 2027-2028
Pierce Mbuyi - Penn State 2008 - 2026-2027

Commitment is for this year:
Henry Mews - U of Michigan 2006 - 2025-2026
Malcolm Spence - U of Michigan 2006 - 2025-2026
Kristian Epperson - U of Denver 2006 - 2025-2026
Jack Ivankovic - U of Michigan 2007 - 2025-2026

So, from that whole big list, so far we are talking about 5 players who are cutting their OHL standard player contract short, and 10 more players who *could* have returned as OAs (although probably not all would have)?

In return, the CHL leagues are now head and shoulders above any other junior league. We are getting a bunch of players from last year's draft to finally commit, we are likely getting every player from this year's draft to commit. We are also getting 3 imports per team, and probably many more top tier imports. Yes, the league might be getting slightly younger, but I would take these tradeoffs any day. Just my opinion.

EDIT: Updated Leblanc brothers

Great job on this........FYI Donovan McCoy has aged out

Also, I read somewhere that only 33% of college hockey commitments actually result in the players playing at college. I'm not getting too worked up about "commitments" until the players actually go to play at the college and even then if ice-time or school is an issue they could very easily return to the OHL.

Commitment is such a funny word because it's not a guarantee.
Crazy times

 

[OMG67]

The concept of Major Junior aged players playing AHL is somewhat overstated. When I say only a handful of players could play in that league, I truly mean it. Maybe some players could hang around and mostly practise and play low minutes and their NHL club may feel that is more meaningful than 24 minutes per game at the CHL level but barring that, I cannot think of more than maybe 3 players per year on average going to the AHL from the OHL and playing a real role.

A lot of 19 year olds are simply not strong enough. Going up against mature players with MAN STRENGTH is much different from a physically capable perspective. The AHL is arguably the second best pro hockey league in the World. There is a vast gap between the AHL and NCAA. So when some suggest that AHL eligibility changes may keep OHL players in the league, I don’t think so. I think if a player is motivated to play NCAA because they want a more stiff competition, they will still leave.

To me the question is whether young junior aged players going to the NCAA truly get quality ice time. I think the elite players that are not ready for pro hockey yet will get quality ice time. But I don’t think less than elite players would, not at 18 and likely not at 19 either. The list that @HockeyPops posted is a strong example of that. We may see some additional 19 year olds leave the OHL a year early but even those players are mostly not capable of playing AHL in a meaningful role. Mews, Spence, Epperson, and Ivankovic are the four players leaving this season. Mews and Ivankovic would not be prepared for the AHL at all. Maybe Spence? And that is a BIG maybe.

Of the high end draft eligibles, we have Schaefer, Martone, Misa, Smith, O’Brien, and Aitcheson. This is a year where there are some high NHL picks so we could see the top 3 maybe play at the AHL level but Smith, O’Brien, and Aitcheson couldn’t play AHL.

So, really, why would being AHL eligible at 19 be a deterrent for many of these players? The reality is to play in the AHL, they’d likely be NHL signed players. If you get an ELC offer and you turn it down to play more NCAA, I’m not sure that is a great decision unless you really believe you need the extra time in the NCAA for seasoning. That takes a hellova lot of discipline.

 

[OMG67]

Great job on this........FYI Donovan McCoy has aged out

Also, I read somewhere that only 33% of college hockey commitments actually result in the players playing at college. I'm not getting too worked up about "commitments" until the players actually go to play at the college and even then if ice-time or school is an issue they could very easily return to the OHL.

Commitment is such a funny word because it's not a guarantee.
Crazy times

Well said. This year will be a bit crazy and then things will start to normalize one way or the other. The OHL will live on just as it always has.

 

[coolhandluc44]

The concept of Major Junior aged players playing AHL is somewhat overstated. When I say only a handful of players could play in that league, I truly mean it. Maybe some players could hang around and mostly practise and play low minutes and their NHL club may feel that is more meaningful than 24 minutes per game at the CHL level but barring that, I cannot think of more than maybe 3 players per year on average going to the AHL from the OHL and playing a real role.

A lot of 19 year olds are simply not strong enough. Going up against mature players with MAN STRENGTH is much different from a physically capable perspective. The AHL is arguably the second best pro hockey league in the World. There is a vast gap between the AHL and NCAA. So when some suggest that AHL eligibility changes may keep OHL players in the league, I don’t think so. I think if a player is motivated to play NCAA because they want a more stiff competition, they will still leave.

To me the question is whether young junior aged players going to the NCAA truly get quality ice time. I think the elite players that are not ready for pro hockey yet will get quality ice time. But I don’t think less than elite players would, not at 18 and likely not at 19 either. The list that @HockeyPops posted is a strong example of that. We may see some additional 19 year olds leave the OHL a year early but even those players are mostly not capable of playing AHL in a meaningful role. Mews, Spence, Epperson, and Ivankovic are the four players leaving this season. Mews and Ivankovic would not be prepared for the AHL at all. Maybe Spence? And that is a BIG maybe.

Of the high end draft eligibles, we have Schaefer, Martone, Misa, Smith, O’Brien, and Aitcheson. This is a year where there are some high NHL picks so we could see the top 3 maybe play at the AHL level but Smith, O’Brien, and Aitcheson couldn’t play AHL.

So, really, why would being AHL eligible at 19 be a deterrent for many of these players? The reality is to play in the AHL, they’d likely be NHL signed players. If you get an ELC offer and you turn it down to play more NCAA, I’m not sure that is a great decision unless you really believe you need the extra time in the NCAA for seasoning. That takes a hellova lot of discipline.

Where not talking about D+1 players in the AHL we are talking about D+2 players or maybe D+1 players who have played 3 years in junior like a Martone or Misa. I totally agree you won’t see a lot, but you would see a few. Zane Parekh would be a god example. Sam Dickenson and Liam Greentree are other good examples.Also there are always surprises. Poitras making the NHL after being drafted out of the second round Jett Lucheko starting the year in the NHL is another. Heck if Luchenko started last year in the NHL who’s to stay the Flyers wouldn’t want him in the AHL next season

Plus it also could depend on the NHL team. With your own farm team,you have more control on how many minutes he gets and how he is used. You have less control if he is on an NCAA team.

Also doesn’t mean the player plays the whole season. Maybe he gets called up for an extended period of time and gets sent back. If you include being able to play NHL preason games, you could quickly get up to 30 pro games pretty quickly which is what a full NCAA regular season is is it not? And that’s my point. If you’re going to the NCAA at 19 to
primarily play against older/stronger players, would this be a more favourable option for both the player and their NHL team? I don’t think it will hurt.

If the CHL/OHL is honest with themselves and realistic with all the changes, I think there primary goal is to keep the best players for 3 years or D+1 season. And by best players mean guys drafted in rounds 1 and 2 in the NHL.
maybe 3rd rounders.