GDT: Hope and optimism? Nah. Canes at Flyers

[tarheelhockey]

If you want a case study in how NHL-style 5/5 hockey snuffs out skill and rewards teams for relying on systematic randomness, look no further than the Carolina Hurricanes.

The difference between our 5/5 and our 3/3 records shows you just how much systems play is able to negate the massive skill/goaltending gap between the Canes and most of their opponents. In a more wide open league, we'd be Colorado-esque.

 

[AD Skinner]

We had no business even taking a point out of that one. I still harbor this faint glimmer of hope that we somehow scratch and claw into 8th but I know it's incredibly unlikely. I've seen a handful of posts asking if peters is a problem and I have to say I really don't think so. He's not infallible but as tarheel alluded to without his 5 on 5 structure this team probably struggles to reach 20 wins.

 

[Joe McGrath]

3-on-3 leaves more open ice, which leaves skilled players more room to do things that skilled players do. Canes have few skilled players, and those they do have aren't exactly known for their puck possession abilities (a rather important aspect of 3-on-3 OT).

I mean, Skinner and TT are dangerous players with open ice, but at the same time, they're the ones most likely to try a move, get completely stuffed, and cause a 3-on-1 the other way.

Very true. Their most prolific offensive defenseman is also a complete disaster at 3 on 3, the likes of which are difficult to describe. I mean, he just gets the puck, skates in a straight line and fires away from 25-30 feet out with a poor angle and no screen. That's his only move. It's the antithesis of what you are trying to do offensively in a 3 on 3 situation. It really says something when Ron Hainsey is clearly a better 3 on 3 player than Justin Faulk.

And let me be clear, I don't begrudge any player who isn't good at 3 on 3 for any reason. No one was taught how to play 3 on 3 at any level above squirts, and it's teetering on that line of, is this still really hockey? For the most part, it's the team with the most skill or the better goalie that's going to win. That's not the Canes, and until it is, the OT record will be poo.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

#loserpointFTW

 

[Joe McGrath]

Canes have 4 OT wins and 13 OT losses this season. If we could win around 50% of our OT games we are 0-1 pts out of a playoff spot this season...

They have 4 OT wins and 8 losses in actual 3 on 3. They have 6 OT/SO wins and 13 OT/SO losses. Doesn't discredit your overall point at all, just giving the full picture of the #s.

 

[CandyCanes]

They have 4 OT wins and 8 losses in actual 3 on 3. They have 6 OT/SO wins and 13 OT/SO losses. Doesn't discredit your overall point at all, just giving the full picture of the #s.

You right. That was my fault, I just double checked the website I used and now notice they didn't include SO wins in their "OT wins" stats. My bad on the faulty the info.

 

[Identity404]

Watched this game up until the second goal. Figured it would be a blowout with the way they were playing and turned it off.

Checked the score later to see they were up a goal, and the flyers immediately tie it. Watch them lose in OT.

Sorry

 

[AD Skinner]

 

[The Stranger]

4 goals allowed, .909 sv%, and lead given up late in 3rd. Is this another case of poor goal-tending sinking the Canes?

 

[The Faulker 27]

With all the bad games they've had this season it's amazing we're still sitting only 6 points out. Not bottom dwellers, but not good either. Is this hell?

 

[Ole Gil]

Canes are 23rd in the league 5v5 for GF% with a -23 differential. 19th in GF/60, 27th in GA/60.

Canes 24th in 3v3 with only 4 goals for, and 7 against though, it's a pretty small sample.

 

[FaulkYouAho]

the refs were on their side. that late penalty was bull then the trip on skinner at the other end that they didn't call. If it wasn't for "aho touching the puck with his hands" and i saw his hand never touch it.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Crunching some numbers here, the Canes have left 10 points on the table in games they led going into the 3rd period. That doesn't include a game like last night that they had a lead in the 3rd. League average is an .850 winning % and the Canes are 2nd to at .692. So even if they just turned those 2 regulation losses they gave away into wins, they are 2 points back right now.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Canes are 23rd in the league 5v5 for GF% with a -23 differential. 19th in GF/60, 27th in GA/60.

Canes 24th in 3v3 with only 4 goals for, and 7 against though, it's a pretty small sample.

And 23rd for PP%.
And 24th in Shootout Winning %
And 21st in NHL standings
And 21st in Overall Goal Differential.

Basic, nothing on this team screams that they should be any better 3v3 than they are. When you lack talent, have the lowest salary and youngest team in the NHL, this is what you get.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

Crunching some numbers here, the Canes have left 10 points on the table in games they led going into the 3rd period. That doesn't include a game like last night that they had a lead in the 3rd. League average is an .850 winning % and the Canes are 2nd to at .692. So even if they just turned those 2 regulation losses they gave away into wins, they are 2 points back right now.

remember when we started the season off by blowing third period leads during our western road trip and we all said it would come back to bite us

so it goes

 

[Joe McGrath]

remember when we started the season off by blowing third period leads during our western road trip and we all said it would come back to bite us

so it goes

I mean yeah, every point matters. But it's no different than saying those two weeks of getting their doors blown off in January really came back to bite them. Or losing to ****ing Arizona and Colorado.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I mean yeah, every point matters. But it's no different than saying those two weeks of getting their doors blown off in January really came back to bite them. Or losing to ****ing Arizona and Colorado.

Yeah...That's exactly it Joe. That's the difference between good and bad teams. There are too many times this season when we can say "that's going to come back and bite us".

 

[tarheelhockey]

The closeness of the standings really creates an illusion that the bad teams are thiiiiissss close to being good teams.

A more telling way to look at it is that we are lodged neatly into the 12 spot in the conference. Which is basically the same place we've been since 2012. There are always 3 teams just ahead of us thinking the same thing we are -- just a couple more bounces and they'd be on the right side of the bubble. And then there's at least a team or two on the inside of the bubble, breathing a sigh of relief that the bounces were right. Which means 4-5 teams ahead of us just to get into the playoffs. And they're trying just as hard to improve every season.

The reality is, we aren't just a few bounces worse than those 7th and 8th seed teams. There's a reason we finish where we do.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

4 goals allowed, .909 sv%, and lead given up late in 3rd. Is this another case of poor goal-tending sinking the Canes?

Only if you didn't watch the game. I'd say the first period and a half did more to sink the Canes than Ward did.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The reality is, we aren't just a few bounces worse than those 7th and 8th seed teams. There's a reason we finish where we do.

Forward talent isn't quite good enough, goaltending isn't quite good enough, team isn't quite experienced enough.

It's a razor thin margin at this level -- but it's a consistent margin.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Only if you didn't watch the game. I'd say the first period and a half did more to sink the Canes than Ward did.

I could be wrong, but didn't think he wasn't serious. I viewed it as Stranger subtly trying to make a point.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Forward talent isn't quite good enough, goaltending isn't quite good enough, team isn't quite experienced enough.

It's a razor thin margin at this level -- but it's a consistent margin.

Yeah, other than FO%, PK% and shots against, this team is pretty much average to below average in everything else.

 

[Joe McGrath]

The closeness of the standings really creates an illusion that the bad teams are thiiiiissss close to being good teams.

A more telling way to look at it is that we are lodged neatly into the 12 spot in the conference. Which is basically the same place we've been since 2012. There are always 3 teams just ahead of us thinking the same thing we are -- just a couple more bounces and they'd be on the right side of the bubble. And then there's at least a team or two on the inside of the bubble, breathing a sigh of relief that the bounces were right. Which means 4-5 teams ahead of us just to get into the playoffs. And they're trying just as hard to improve every season.

The reality is, we aren't just a few bounces worse than those 7th and 8th seed teams. There's a reason we finish where we do.

I don't think it's a few bounces. I mean it's obviously not. It's poor performance in important situations. And ****** goaltending.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Now that it's been analyzed six ways from Sunday, it will be interesting to see what actually becomes the catalyst for us making the playoffs again.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Now that it's been analyzed six ways from Sunday, it will be interesting to see what actually becomes the catalyst for us making the playoffs again.

Better players?