Confirmed with Link: Holy Crap, They Actually Make a Move! (Guentzel and Ty Smith to Carolina for Bunting + Ponomaryov + Koivunen + Lucius + Conditional 2024 2nd)

[NotOpie]

And now that we did just that and got aggressive with a trade, now we're arguing to let that player walk in FA because he wants to be paid like an elite offensive player?

That's a 30 year old player.....to me it all depends on playoff performances.....from Necas, Jarvis, Guentzel, Kuznetsov, and Turbo. I believe those factors will ultimately be the determination as to where they end up.

 

[Svechhammer]

That's a 30 year old player.....to me it all depends on playoff performances.....from Necas, Jarvis, Guentzel, Kuznetsov, and Turbo. I believe those factors will ultimately be the determination as to where they end up.

...And? We have a 39 year old defenseman getting paid $8m to anchor our top line right now (and will be next year as well) and gave a 35 year old Jordan Staal a 4 year deal. Even with retention, Burns as a 40 year old will eat over $5m in cap space next year.

As I said if we let Guentzel walk because we are too timid to pay market value for an elite offensive player, we deserve to see the contention window slam shut

 

[LakeLivin]

I would keep Necas over Guentzel as well based on the contracts and age. I don’t feel different about Guentzel than I do about any of the others we let go because we balked at the contract. They were all good fits but they were all a bit old to give long term deals to. My only urge to sign Jake comes from the cost of acquisition.

Here's my question, and it really is a question as I have no way to actually watch the games. I'm relying on what I hear over the radio and read on here.

There is no doubt that all else being equal you'd rather sign a 25 year old than a 30 year old to a long term deal. But does Guentzel (and/or Kuzy) bring a particular skillset that the team was missing that unlocks team scoring? How much of the (it would appear) very noticeable boost in offence the team has seen recently is due to the new additions? Is there a straw-that-stirs-the-drink effect in play?

I'm sure the rest of the season will shine more light on that question, and hopefully it doesn't come down to an either/or decision between Necas and Guentzel.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Guentzel may become superfluous with internal development. Jarvis just took a major step D+4. Where is his peak? Necas has been an impact player for the past 2 months, despite 2nd unit PP time and being tasked with best player on his line responsibilities for the bulk of it. I want to see Svechnikov the year after his post-ACL season; there's room for growth with him.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

...And? We have a 39 year old defenseman getting paid $8m to anchor our top line right now (and will be next year as well) and gave a 35 year old Jordan Staal a 4 year deal. Even with retention, Burns as a 40 year old will eat over $5m in cap space next year.

As I said if we let Guentzel walk because we are too timid to pay market value for an elite offensive player, we deserve to see the contention window slam shut

We’re not paying Burns $8 mil. 33% retention from the sharks.

 

[Chan790]

I'm sure the rest of the season will shine more light on that question, and hopefully it doesn't come down to an either/or decision between Necas and Guentzel.

I don't think it can, not if we want to seriously be a perennial contender. We need 6 top-6, 4 top-4 D, and competent if not exceptional goaltending to build around. Everything else is fungible or a luxury.

If we move on from either Necas or Guentzel, we're going to have to replace them. If we have to make hard decisions elsewhere, then we have to make hard decisions elsewhere.

I have every confidence this FO can make it work, but next year's team may look very different and guys we assumed would be here...may not.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I don't think it can, not if we want to seriously be a perennial contender. We need 6 top-6, 4 top-4 D, and competent if not exceptional goaltending to build around. Everything else is fungible or a luxury.

If we move on from either Necas or Guentzel, we're going to have to replace them. If we have to make hard decisions elsewhere, then we have to make hard decisions elsewhere.

I have every confidence this FO can make it work, but next year's team may look very different and guys we assumed would be here...may not.

Good points. I'd add, if you trade Necas then the asset(s) you receive back probably has a comparable cap hit unless you take young players.

The Necas we have been seeing is at a Star level with speed and a shot that is top shelf. I wouldn't trade him.

 

[hblueridgegal]

I'm sorry but we've been talking for years at how we don't have enough offensive pop with the players we had and how we really needed to be aggressive in FA or trades to get one.

And now that we did just that and got aggressive with a trade, now we're arguing to let that player walk in FA because he wants to be paid like an elite offensive player?

Yeah if we do that we deserve to have our entire contention window go up in a puff of smoke. We know our weaknesses, they have been brutally obvious the last couple playoff runs, and if we revert back to that just because we think it might be hard to walk away from the players we had, then we absolutely deserve to waste this window away

Now that the fanbase and locker room has had a taste, it might be hard to put the genie back into the bottle and revert to form.

Several of the articles covering the TDL and the Canes, mention how getting that kind of scoring help has had a rejuvenating effect on the team. Sounds like they've been waiting for it to happen.

 

[bleedgreen]

Here's my question, and it really is a question as I have no way to actually watch the games. I'm relying on what I hear over the radio and read on here.

There is no doubt that all else being equal you'd rather sign a 25 year old than a 30 year old to a long term deal. But does Guentzel (and/or Kuzy) bring a particular skillset that the team was missing that unlocks team scoring? How much of the (it would appear) very noticeable boost in offence the team has seen recently is due to the new additions? Is there a straw-that-stirs-the-drink effect in play?

I'm sure the rest of the season will shine more light on that question, and hopefully it doesn't come down to an either/or decision between Necas and Guentzel.

Jake is great around the net. In a way no guy on the team quite is. He’s not super fast but he can quickly find guys who are open, has the skill to make those tight passes and he has the knack of finishing up close. Over the years he doesn’t score amazing goals to watch, they seem easy but for some reason not a lot of guys can consistently do it and he’s one of them. To answer your question…..yes he brings something we lack and will miss. Necas is the opposite of poised in tight spaces at times, sometimes the best skill he has is skating away/through from tight spaces then figuring out what’s next on the other side.

Kuzy also answers your question as a yes. If he ended up being consistent, in shape and had the right mindset he’s our actual number one center. He’s notably better offensively than Aho. He’s dynamic, poised, creative and unafraid to take chances to make things happen. Aho is real good at everything but not really the master at anything. It’s been hard to have the conversation about what Aho is or isn’t around here for years because he’s produced enough to be our number one and most people chafe at the thought of him being considered otherwise.

Kuzy is a number one. Or was. Or still is maybe? I think psychologically he’s best as our number two. I don’t think he wants to be that guy and we don’t want to be counting on him to be more. He absolutely brings something we lack though.

I don’t think it’s lost on management what we have going on right now.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

In many ways, I truly don't give a shit what our team looks like after the playoffs. Much like Florida/Tampa/Vegas/Colorado, though, there will be a significant amount of players willing to take less than open UFA value to stay in Carolina. I'm not sure who those guys will be, but there will be at least a couple of them. The other part of the Carolina MO that should continue is that they will prioritize the 25 and under guys. They historically like having some footing in the future and some footing in the right-now.

 

[Brock Anton]

Give him all the money.

 

[NotOpie]

I have every confidence this FO can make it work, but next year's team may look very different and guys we assumed would be here...may not.

Well, we'll have a similar core: Aho, Jarvis, probably Necas, Kuznetsov, Svech, Staal, at least one of Drury or Kotkaniemi, Fast, Orlov, Freddie, and Pyotr. To me, the hardest part will be replacing Skjei and Pesce. Not sure Chatty will be here (hope we can get a deal done). But nothing's guaranteed. I would just be surprised if we let one of the youngsters go to sign one of the older, yet still productive guys.

Staal and Burns are the exception, not the rule. Burns is a gym rat and a health nut. Staal is similar from an "in shape" perspective, but he's going to ride out into the sunset on the 4th line anyway.

I do believe they think they've got a better handle on the up and comers (Jarvis, Drury, for example), so they may be more confident to go long term with Guentzel. I just don't want it to be at the expense of Necas.

In many ways, I truly don't give a shit what our team looks like after the playoffs. Much like Florida/Tampa/Vegas/Colorado, though, there will be a significant amount of players willing to take less than open UFA value to stay in Carolina. I'm not sure who those guys will be, but there will be at least a couple of them. The other part of the Carolina MO that should continue is that they will prioritize the 25 and under guys. They historically like having some footing in the future and some footing in the right-now.

I'm not sure you've looked at Florida/Tampa/Vegas/Colorado's collective rosters. Outside of Stamkos, the only guy not getting market value at the time of signing is our old friend Forsling. Truth be told Aho took a better home town/winners discount that I expected.

If I were GMDW, I'd be trying to get the outliers done before the playoffs. Get Drury taken care of. Get Chatty done. Hell, find out if Jarvis will take a bridge deal. But some of next year's money needs to get committed so we know where our salary structure stands.

 

[spockBokk]

Out of all of the UFAs (Skjei, Pesce, Chatfield, Martinook, Teravainen, Guentzel, Noesen) and the RFAs (Jarvis, Necas, Drury). The only one guaranteed to be a Cane next season is Jarvis. Kinda crazy to think about.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

I highly doubt Kuzy even wants top dollar with his next contract. Given where he's coming from, I would suspect he'll be willing to take a discount just to stay somewhere that is good for him personally.

And if he stays here, it could help us keep Orlov as well. Who knows

I could see those two ending up as a potential package deal wherever the end up. Both seem really happy to be playing together again.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I'm not sure you've looked at Florida/Tampa/Vegas/Colorado's collective rosters. Outside of Stamkos, the only guy not getting market value at the time of signing is our old friend Forsling. Truth be told Aho took a better home town/winners discount that I expected.

I'd argue that both MacKinnon and Devon Toews signed at significantly under their true UFA value, especially the latter. Tampa and Brayden Point is another example of this. Of course we have Florida with Forsling and Barkov ($10M cap hit for a PPG+ Selke centerman with no RFA remaining is on the low side), and Vegas with Marchessault ($5M cap hit coming off a PPG season).

 

[NotOpie]

Out of all of the UFAs (Skjei, Pesce, Chatfield, Martinook, Teravainen, Guentzel, Noesen) and the RFAs (Jarvis, Necas, Drury). The only one guaranteed to be a Cane next season is Jarvis. Kinda crazy to think about.

Perhaps, but I'd bet 5 or 6 out of the 10 will be back - Jarvis, Necas, Drury, Chatfield, Martinook, and maybe Teravainen.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Perhaps, but I'd bet 5 or 6 out of the 10 will be back - Jarvis, Necas, Drury, Chatfield, Martinook, and maybe Teravainen.

I'll say that it's a toss-up between Guentzel or Teravainen. One or the other will stick around, but if Teravainen is the one that they keep, it'll give the Canes room to either retain Noesen or, alternatively, buy low on someone like Tyler Bertuzzi.

 

[NotOpie]

I'd argue that both MacKinnon and Devon Toews signed at significantly under their true UFA value, especially the latter. Tampa and Brayden Point is another example of this. Of course we have Florida with Forsling and Barkov ($10M cap hit for a PPG+ Selke centerman with no RFA remaining is on the low side), and Vegas with Marchessault ($5M cap hit coming off a PPG season).

We'll have to agree to disagree....maybe McKinnon fits as well, but you're reaching on the rest.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

We'll have to agree to disagree....maybe McKinnon fits as well, but you're reaching on the rest.

I don't think Devon Toews is a reach, either. Toews could've easily gotten more than 9M in UFA with the inflating cap this offseason.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I'll say that it's a toss-up between Guentzel or Teravainen. One or the other will stick around, but if Teravainen is the one that they keep, it'll give the Canes room to either retain Noesen or, alternatively, buy low on someone like Tyler Bertuzzi.

please no on Bertuzzi....

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

please no on Bertuzzi....

They were rumored to be snooping around Bertuzzi last offseason before they zoomed in on the Orlov/Bunting/Tarasenko group. I could easily see the Canes buying low after a bad counting-stat year in Toronto.

 

[Chan790]

They were rumored to be snooping around Bertuzzi last offseason before they zoomed in on the Orlov/Bunting/Tarasenko group. I could easily see the Canes buying low after a bad counting-stat year in Toronto.

I would hope at this point that the last 2 weeks have taught them that depth and scavenging off the scrap heap searching for fancy stats darlings is no substitute for acquiring actual elite talent.

It's great when all three at once falls in your lap like Kuznetsov, but how often does that happen?

 

[Unsustainable]

I would hope at this point that the last 2 weeks have taught them that depth and scavenging off the scrap heap searching for fancy stats darlings is no substitute for acquiring actual elite talent.

It's great when all three at once falls in your lap like Kuznetsov, but how often does that happen?

Every year if you magically have a player get injured every Febuary.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I would hope at this point that the last 2 weeks have taught them that depth and scavenging off the scrap heap searching for fancy stats darlings is no substitute for acquiring actual elite talent.

It's great when all three at once falls in your lap like Kuznetsov, but how often does that happen?

You guys bitch about the scrap pile, but we keep having winning records and driving positive play with our asset management strategy. An underrated aspect of our tendencies, also, is cap flexibility. There would be no Guentzel or Kuznetsov without having it.

 

[LakeLivin]

You guys bitch about the scrap pile, but we keep having winning records and driving positive play with our asset management strategy. An underrated aspect of our tendencies, also, is cap flexibility. There would be no Guentzel or Kuznetsov without having it.

Yeah, but think where we'd be if instead of the past strategy we'd had a Matthews, Marner, and Nylander, all at the same time!

In all seriousness, it feels like some people (subconsciously?) almost feel like there is always a move that would put us over the top, if the Borg would just be flexible or courageous enough to make it. While in reality, it may just be that the cost/benefit/risk/reward of a particular move at a set point comes out negative, and chasing one of those would more than likely leave the team in worse shape, if not now then in the future. This is NOT to say the Borg is infallible; no organization is. But I have no doubt their goal, just like ours, is a Cup and given their history I have to trust their calculus w.r.t. the cost/risk/benefit of any move more than, say, my gut.