Confirmed with Link: Holy Crap, They Actually Make a Move! (Guentzel and Ty Smith to Carolina for Bunting + Ponomaryov + Koivunen + Lucius + Conditional 2024 2nd)

[Turin]

I was more surprised listening to Seravalli talking about the prospect people he trusts said Carolina gave up their "7th, 8th, 9th best prospects."

Then he started listing off the top prospects not dealt. Nikishin (obviously), Morrow, Nadeau (sure), Mercuri (wait WHAT??)

I think he is discounting the idea that 4th-9th are all opinions, and it may still be too early to say Nadeau is clearly above that group.

But who told Seravalli that Mercuri was a prospect Pittsburgh should have been asking for back as a top tier prospect??

Seravalli f***ing hates both Dubas and Pittsburgh. Not putting it past him that he just makes things up to make either look worse. For example he said this offseason that he had heard “Dubas rejected the Pens” 15 hours before the Pens announced he signed a 7 year deal. He then spent (as you guys remember) the rest of the offseason saying there was no way Pitt can get Karlsson and that nobody wants anything on their team.

Like I think Carolina got a great deal and has a deep pool but there is no chance Ponomarev and Koivunen were 7 and 8.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Seravalli f***ing hates both Dubas and Pittsburgh. Not putting it past him that he just makes things up to make either look worse. For example he said this offseason that he had heard “Dubas rejected the Pens” 15 hours before the Pens announced he signed a 7 year deal. He then spent (as you guys remember) the rest of the offseason saying there was no way Pitt can get Karlsson and that nobody wants anything on their team.

Like I think Carolina got a great deal and has a deep pool but there is no chance Ponomarev and Koivunen were 7 and 8.

its hard to like Dubas. he really hasnt done much but waste time as a GM. I guess he must of did Seravalli at some point.

If Griere wasnt so bad, it would be hard to imagine that Pens would have anything to entice a GM to move a 100 point defender with retain.

 

[Turin]

its hard to like Dubas. he really hasnt done much but waste time as a GM. I guess he must of did Seravalli at some point.

If Griere wasnt so bad, it would be hard to imagine that Pens would have anything to entice a GM to move a 100 point defender with retain.

That deal was always about moving long term money and doing right by the player, never about getting a haul. Seravalli has been godawful since leaving TSN to start his own grift.

 

[Svechhammer]

Seravalli f***ing hates both Dubas and Pittsburgh. Not putting it past him that he just makes things up to make either look worse. For example he said this offseason that he had heard “Dubas rejected the Pens” 15 hours before the Pens announced he signed a 7 year deal. He then spent (as you guys remember) the rest of the offseason saying there was no way Pitt can get Karlsson and that nobody wants anything on their team.

Like I think Carolina got a great deal and has a deep pool but there is no chance Ponomarev and Koivunen were 7 and 8.

I mean no matter where you slot Pono and Koivunen, I'm not sure they realistically had much of a future with the Canes. I think they can both be very good players, but Pono was blocked, and if we knew Kuz was coming, he was even more blocked than we initially thought, and Koivunen/Lucius probably top out fighting to be 4th line players whenever they are ready for the NHL with the Canes. So they're all kind of expendable in that regard, and if you're going to deal expendable guys, there isn't much of a better return for them than a proven top line player like Guentzel.

 

[Turin]

I mean no matter where you slot Pono and Koivunen, I'm not sure they realistically had much of a future with the Canes. I think they can both be very good players, but Pono was blocked, and if we knew Kuz was coming, he was even more blocked than we initially thought, and Koivunen/Lucius probably top out fighting to be 4th line players whenever they are ready for the NHL with the Canes. So they're all kind of expendable in that regard, and if you're going to deal expendable guys, there isn't much of a better return for them than a proven top line player like Guentzel.

Yea I don’t think that’s debatable. It was a no brainer.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

That deal was always about moving long term money and doing right by the player, never about getting a haul. Seravalli has been godawful since leaving TSN to start his own grift.

I understand the point of the deal but, Grier really didnt pull anything out of the deal of value.

Basically he has traded 3 higher performing guys and he got 2 1sts a good prospect, and bunch of jumk with 3 long term retains and 2 3rds going out.

 

[dogbazinho]

The more I think about the deal the more it's worrying. The assets we gave up didn't have a great path to the Canes but they were still assets we had that could have been used for players more in the line of what is a normal aquisition for us; youngish players w/ term.

Now we have a ~ 30 year old winger, not known for defense or physicality, that has been stapled to generational talent, who will want term and a sizeable contract. We are not known for being generous in our contracts and are now in a position where we either do not sign him and lose assets for a rental OR re-sign him to a long, expensive contract for a player that typically doesn't fit our MO.

Compared to the chances we took on Meier or Thachuk both are much more appealing, so much so that way overpaying for either would have been preferred.

Sorry being negative.

 

[Chrispy]

Like I think Carolina got a great deal and has a deep pool but there is no chance Ponomarev and Koivunen were 7 and 8.

Nikishin, Morrow, Nadeau seem to be the consensus top 3.

Then you are arguing among Unger Sorum, Blake, Ponomarev, Koivunen, Lucius, Suzuki, Heimosalmi, Gunler, Rykov, Trikosov, Rees.

I think the lowest I would put them is 6,7, (Lucius 8) if you put Unger Sorum and Blake above them. But I think Koivunen's performance in Liiga is more impressive than Blake's performance in the NCAA or Pono's at the AHL level so I'd say 5 & 6 for Koivunen and Ponomarev is reasonable.

Unger Sorum vs Koivunen comes down to how you value SHL vs Liiga and how you gauge 0.5 PPG from an 18 year old vs PPG from a 20 year old.

Ponomarev will play in the NHL regularly, so that has a value of its own before you talk about his top end projection.

So yes, I think it's better value than both Seravalli and PIT fans on the main board felt.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

I mean I could definitely see a 2 or 3 year extension at less than what you'd think just to make sure he's got his head back on straight. Even he's admitting to the media right now that this is realistically his last chance in the league. If it works here, I could absolutely see him taking less just to stay in a good spot.

Different front office but I'm sure Rod remembers what happened with Semin after his extension (wrist injury not withstanding). So yeah he'd probably be looking at a series of short extensions here if they want to keep him after next year.

 

[spockBokk]

The more I think about the deal the more it's worrying. The assets we gave up didn't have a great path to the Canes but they were still assets we had that could have been used for players more in the line of what is a normal aquisition for us; youngish players w/ term.

Now we have a ~ 30 year old winger, not known for defense or physicality, that has been stapled to generational talent, who will want term and a sizeable contract. We are not known for being generous in our contracts and are now in a position where we either do not sign him and lose assets for a rental OR re-sign him and have a potential anchor contract. Compared to the chances we took on Meier or Thachuk both are much more appealing, so much so that way overpaying for either would have been preferred.

Sorry being negative.

Arguably, Guentzel was the best rental forward available at the deadline in years. Yes, the Canes have the future in mind when signing players and making trades, but for this group, their time is now.

It feels right, to me at least, to give this group the best chance possible for the now. I get worrying about the future and if they don’t win the cup and/or Guentzel walks, they gave up a lot. However, I think you can very positively say that they very easy could afford to give up that much based on their drafting history.

Outside of Ponomarev, I don’t think any of what they traded would have seen NHL ice in the next 2 yrs under RBA. They kept their potential home run guys. They could afford to ship out who they did. I’m glad they shot their shot.

As an aside, I’ll be mildly surprised if they let Guentzel walk. Unless he’s after $9.5M+ or something, I don’t see them having a problem extending him. Or, if he walks after they win the cup, that’s fine, they just won the cup.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

the real question is how often do top 10-15 goal scorers become available at all? Even compared to recent top tier guys moved, Eichel has never had more than 36 goals in a season, and Tkachuck had just 1 career year with 42 goals before being traded, his next highest was 34. I don't think there are many comparables to Guentzel since goal scorers like him just don't get traded or hit FA often.

 

[Sideline]

The more I think about the deal the more it's worrying. The assets we gave up didn't have a great path to the Canes but they were still assets we had that could have been used for players more in the line of what is a normal aquisition for us; youngish players w/ term.

Now we have a ~ 30 year old winger, not known for defense or physicality, that has been stapled to generational talent, who will want term and a sizeable contract. We are not known for being generous in our contracts and are now in a position where we either do not sign him and lose assets for a rental OR re-sign him to a long, expensive contract for a player that typically doesn't fit our MO.

Compared to the chances we took on Meier or Thachuk both are much more appealing, so much so that way overpaying for either would have been preferred.

Sorry being negative.

Having watched Jake for his entire career he's unfairly discounted as a product of Sid way too often. James Neal scored 40 next to Malkin. Phil Kessel nearly won a Conn Smythe next to Nick Bonino. Neither one of them ever looked good with Sid.

There are two kinds of players that work with Sid. The fast, straight line, board battle types like Pascal Dupuis or Chris Kunitz work because Sid is at his core the greatest 4th liner in history.

The other guys that work are much rarer; they think the game at an elite level and don't need the puck to be dangerous. This is Patrice Bergeron on team Canada or Jake Guentzel with the Penguins. Those back door tap ins look easy, but knowing the timing to arrive exactly at the moment that ice is open is not easy at all.

I wouldn't want Jake to be the driving force of my offense, but if he's got another high end guy to read and react off of you are going to be just fine.

 

[dogbazinho]

I wouldn't want Jake to be the driving force of my offense, but if he's got another high end guy to read and react off of you are going to be just fine.

To be honest, my comments were intended (I prob went off track) to be less of a commentary on Jake and more of Rod and often our inability to fit players into our system. I could see a scenario where if Jake isn't scoring, that Rod may grow impatient and play him in a non-ideal situation.

 

[Sideline]

To be honest, my comments were intended to be less of a commentary on Jake and more of Rod and often our inability to fit players into our system. I could see a scenario where if Jake isn't scoring, that Rod may grow impatient and play him in a non-ideal situation.

Gotcha. I don't know enough about your team dynamics to have an opinion there.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Arguably, Guentzel was the best rental forward available at the deadline in years. Yes, the Canes have the future in mind when signing players and making trades, but for this group, their time is now.

It feels right, to me at least, to give this group the best chance possible for the now. I get worrying about the future and if they don’t win the cup and/or Guentzel walks, they gave up a lot. However, I think you can very positively say that they very easy could afford to give up that much based on their drafting history.

Outside of Ponomarev, I don’t think any of what they traded would have seen NHL ice in the next 2 yrs under RBA. They kept their potential home run guys. They could afford to ship out who they did. I’m glad they shot their shot.

As an aside, I’ll be mildly surprised if they let Guentzel walk. Unless he’s after $9.5M+ or something, I don’t see them having a problem extending him. Or, if he walks after they win the cup, that’s fine, they just won the cup.

Ideally, Guentzel would be amiable to taking the Svech contract, but that's not likely for obvious reasons. The Canes, though, likely want to keep the AAV number around the 8M number rather than the 9M number. If he willing to go to a mediocre-to-bad team to get $9.5M+, the Canes will be just fine with making Guentzel a rental and using the cap space elsewhere, based on their history.

 

[bleedgreen]

Nikishin, Morrow, Nadeau seem to be the consensus top 3.

Then you are arguing among Unger Sorum, Blake, Ponomarev, Koivunen, Lucius, Suzuki, Heimosalmi, Gunler, Rykov, Trikosov, Rees.

I think the lowest I would put them is 6,7, (Lucius 8) if you put Unger Sorum and Blake above them. But I think Koivunen's performance in Liiga is more impressive than Blake's performance in the NCAA or Pono's at the AHL level so I'd say 5 & 6 for Koivunen and Ponomarev is reasonable.

Unger Sorum vs Koivunen comes down to how you value SHL vs Liiga and how you gauge 0.5 PPG from an 18 year old vs PPG from a 20 year old.

Ponomarev will play in the NHL regularly, so that has a value of its own before you talk about his top end projection.

So yes, I think it's better value than both Seravalli and PIT fans on the main board felt.

You’re right about Nadeau being consensus but to me that’s about recency bias and being a first rounder. Watching Morrow a bunch got me watching Nadeau a bunch and while the skill set is “projectable” he shouldn’t be our top forward right now. He’s not close. Size, strength, owning the level he’s at are all not there. I know the stats are there but it’s deceiving like with Morrow. You have trouble finding Nadeau some games. When he and his brother break loose it turns into a scoring chance quick but I could see Nadeau staying there until after year three if you want development. Most guys that are at the level we think this kid can get to crush the NCAA. Rizzo was crushing it. Nadeau will get there imo and he’s on his way but to me he should’ve been behind all three of Blake, Pono and Koivunen. The ceiling isn’t as obvious as the reports make it yet.

Mercuri has developed really well and is a huge kid but he doesn’t look like he has NHL feet, he’s raised his value overall but as you say obviously shouldn’t be ranked that high. I hope we sign him having said that, he’s put in the work. He plays like he wants it.

Koivunen could score at least like Blake in the NCAA, could Blake be ppg-ish in La Liga? I have doubts about that.

 

[spockBokk]

Ideally, Guentzel would be amiable to taking the Svech contract, but that's not likely for obvious reasons. The Canes, though, likely want to keep the AAV number around the 8M number rather than the 9M number. If he willing to go to a mediocre-to-bad team to get $9.5M+, the Canes will be just fine with making Guentzel a rental and using the cap space elsewhere, based on their history.

From what I can gather he turned down $8.5M x 6 from the Pens. Would he do $8M x 7? $7.5-$7.75M x 8 would be the max I think the Canes would offer. Personally, I think it’d take $8.5M. That’s actually doable, even with giving Jarvis a bridge around $5.5M and Necas long term at $7-7.25M.

What it would do is handicap the blueline, which will need serious tweaks this season and next. That handicap is a lot more manageable if they dump Kotkaniemi.

The Necas and Guentzel extension negotiations will be the most interesting we see I think this summer, and to a lesser extent Skjei, but I think he’s gone regardless.

 

[bleedgreen]

Arguably, Guentzel was the best rental forward available at the deadline in years. Yes, the Canes have the future in mind when signing players and making trades, but for this group, their time is now.

It feels right, to me at least, to give this group the best chance possible for the now. I get worrying about the future and if they don’t win the cup and/or Guentzel walks, they gave up a lot. However, I think you can very positively say that they very easy could afford to give up that much based on their drafting history.

Outside of Ponomarev, I don’t think any of what they traded would have seen NHL ice in the next 2 yrs under RBA. They kept their potential home run guys. They could afford to ship out who they did. I’m glad they shot their shot.

As an aside, I’ll be mildly surprised if they let Guentzel walk. Unless he’s after $9.5M+ or something, I don’t see them having a problem extending him. Or, if he walks after they win the cup, that’s fine, they just won the cup.

You think they want to pay him at 37?

 

[Sideline]

Ideally, Guentzel would be amiable to taking the Svech contract, but that's not likely for obvious reasons. The Canes, though, likely want to keep the AAV number around the 8M number rather than the 9M number. If he willing to go to a mediocre-to-bad team to get $9.5M+, the Canes will be just fine with making Guentzel a rental and using the cap space elsewhere, based on their history.

Jake grew up in Minnesota and Bill Guerin was heading up player development for the Penguins from the time Jake was drafted through his debut in 2017 so I could the Wild making a push for him.

I'm not sure there's any indication he was looking to do a hometown discount type deal though as his wife is from Pittsburgh and they are by all accounts happy in the city, but nothing was ever close for an extension which makes me doubt it was a team friendly opening bid from his agent.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

You think they want to pay him at 37?

It depends on how much of the cap hit that the Canes can keep down. If the Canes somehow can get Guentzel to take an extension under $8M a season, you bet that they'd be OK with paying him until he's 37 or 38.

Jake grew up in Minnesota and Bill Guerin was heading up player development for the Penguins from the time Jake was drafted through his debut in 2017 so I could the Wild making a push for him.

I'm not sure there's any indication he was looking to do a hometown discount type deal though as his wife is from Pittsburgh and they are by all accounts happy in the city, but nothing was ever close for an extension which makes me doubt it was a team friendly opening bid from his agent.

I don't think that players tend to take hometown discounts. I think that players do take Cup contender discounts in the modern salary cap age.

 

[bleedgreen]

It depends on how much of the cap hit that the Canes can keep down. If the Canes somehow can get Guentzel to take an extension under $8M a season, you bet that they'd be OK with paying him until he's 37 or 38.

I’d bet his thing is term. He likely either wouldn’t want to be married to us long term like Orlov or he wants the full monty. They wait their whole career for this. I’d assume his starting point is 9-10x8. If that’s the case and we won’t do it he’s going to market to see if it’s there before caving to us you’d think.

He’d have to really love it there to change from that plan. There’s lots of teams he’d fit in on and love the area.

 

[spockBokk]

You think they want to pay him at 37?

If they get 30-40g Guentzel for the first half of that contract, sure.

They’re going to have to bite the bullet on one of those deals eventually I think. If Guentzel slides right in and produces like he’s capable. I think they do everything within reason to keep him.

Edit - I don’t think for a minute they’d pay him $9M.

 

[bleedgreen]

If they get 30-40g Guentzel for the first half of that contract, sure.

They’re going to have to bite the bullet on one of those deals eventually I think. If Guentzel slides right in and produces like he’s capable. I think they do everything within reason to keep him.

I know we’re not acting like us here, but that’s not us and you wonder how much they’re willing to step out of character. Also as much as I like the guy, is he really the guy you go that long on for so much? He’ll always need to be fed pucks, he doesn’t create a ton on his own. You’d think more of a play driver would be the guy you give that contract to.

 

[spockBokk]

I know we’re not acting like us here, but that’s not us and you wonder how much they’re willing to step out of character. Also as much as I like the guy, is he really the guy you go that long on for so much? He’ll always need to be fed pucks, he doesn’t create a ton on his own. You’d think more of a play driver would be the guy you give that contract to.

Uncharted territory for sure.

They finally got their “guy”. But their guy is knocking on 30, instead of 26/27. Obviously, a whole lot will depend on the rest of the regular season and how he fits in.

I don’t think they paid the price to get him without the intention of keeping him around longer than 2months.

 

[bleedgreen]

Uncharted territory for sure.

They finally got their “guy”. But their guy is knocking on 30, instead of 26/27. Obviously, a whole lot will depend on the rest of the regular season and how he fits in.

I don’t think they paid the price to get him without the intention of keeping him around longer than 2months.

You’d think that, but you’d also think they’d have shown more interest in keeping any of the guys we’ve let walk in that age group. I think they DO have more interest in keeping Jake and this will get the old college try. My concerns are what I’ve always said. If we don’t cave to big demands he can just go to market to see if he’s bringing realistic and once he’s there he’s gone, also I don’t know that this is the right player for going that big.

Hopefully something easier to manage does it, I’m just not holding my breath.