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Post-Game Talk: Holl wins it in OT. Leafs defeat the Sens 3-2

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Gary Nylund said:
Yup. Look at the goals last night - you could call them both lucky bounces but if you shoot at the net enough, good things happen. Traffic in front and pucks at the net, it ain't fancy but it works.
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Spacing and crisp puck distribution are issues. The Perfection Line in Boston has a great ability to pull defenders apart, create seams and back door options that end in bang bang plays around the net.

Our guys are really struggling with that right now. Seems like teams can protect the net and slot by collapsing and the Leafs are either not driving to the net aggressively enough, moving the puck quickly enough to pull things apart.
 
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zeke said:
See, but looking at stats like xgoals and others helps you understand how much a team's losses are due to team failures or rather, say, goalie failures.
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If they failed to score the expected goals, then they have failed to meet expectations. But blaming the goalie works too.
 
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21 pages in post game chat...its kinda like we lost lol.

it's tiring to hear that we are "making backups look good" probably best to give credit to the goalies who legitimately have played extremely well against us. it's not like we are firing pucks unscreened directly into their bodies.
we could have another 5 - 6 wins on the season if opposing goalies didnt go HAM against us. our team is very, very good.
 
zeke said:
We have elite goal differential matching our expected goal differential tho.
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Yup, I was referring to a hypothetical team. This one is doing fine imo. I was just sort of thinking on how it could be a practical talent evaluation for the coaches.
 
djdev said:
21 pages in post game chat...its kinda like we lost lol.

it's tiring to hear that we are "making backups look good" probably best to give credit to the goalies who legitimately have played extremely well against us. it's not like we are firing pucks unscreened directly into their bodies.
we could have another 5 - 6 wins on the season if opposing goalies didnt go HAM against us. our team is very, very good.
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The opposition goalies are just doing what average NHL goalies do. It's just that we are not accustomed to seeing that from our goalies on a regular basis.
 
Confucius said:
The opposition goalies are just doing what average NHL goalies do. It's just that we are not accustomed to seeing that from our goalies on a regular basis.
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hmmm there was nothing avg about what helle did to us, against an "avg" nhl goalie we prob win all 3 of those games, nor how rittich has played against us..he played all world for 2 straight games and even in losses has played extremely well. forsberg last night played like an upper echelon NHL starter.
 
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Confucius said:
The opposition goalies are just doing what average NHL goalies do. It's just that we are not accustomed to seeing that from our goalies on a regular basis.
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That's ubderselling their performance, but I'd definitely say the average goaltending performance is a lot better than we've averaged over the past few weeks.
 
Gallagbi said:
That's ubderselling their performance, but I'd definitely say the average goaltending performance is a lot better than we've averaged over the past few weeks.
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Any game a goalie wins it appears like he is playing vezina calibre. If you took the save percentages and the GAA of only the games that goalies win. I wouldn't be surprised to see .930 + averages around the league
 
Not our best game, but we played much better as the game went on. Stay in your net Campbell, damn.
 
horner said:
I agree

Hyman needs to be with Marner and Mathews .

I really don't get the coaches reasoning.
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TO hasn't had a productive 3rd line in like 4ever either offensively or defensively which has been a major weakness late in the year and into the playoffs. With Hy on the 3rd line we have a team that might have a proper 3rd line producing defensively with some offense, move Hy off of that line makes that line ineffective, again. In the past TO has limped into the playoffs with offensive production problems from the top 2 lines and that was with Hy playing on one or the other line, Hy on the top lines isn't a majic potion to assure success for those lines, the top 4 paid players on the Leafs are, Hy can and does drive the 3rd line.
 
hobarth said:
TO hasn't had a productive 3rd line in like 4ever either offensively or defensively which has been a major weakness late in the year and into the playoffs. With Hy on the 3rd line we have a team that might have a proper 3rd line producing defensively with some offense, move Hy off of that line makes that line ineffective, again. In the past TO has limped into the playoffs with offensive production problems from the top 2 lines and that was with Hy playing on one or the other line, Hy on the top lines isn't a majic potion to assure success for those lines, the top 4 paid players on the Leafs are, Hy can and does drive the 3rd line.
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What????

we had a very productive 3rd line in JVR/Boz/Mitch
 
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Joey Hoser said:
Stands to reason that the people who are into stats the most, would understand the significance of sample size the best.
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Seems logical but not necessarily true. All kinds of people are into all kinds of things, that doesn't always mean that they have a good understanding of whatever it is that they're into.

zeke said:
And PP goals are even easier.

This game we had 2 5v5 goals 1 3v3 goals and zero PP goals.
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Not for the Toronto Maple Leafs lately they haven't been. I believe it's been quite a substantial stretch of hockey now where we've actually scored more at even strength then we have on the PP.

Anyhow, we were talking about scoring goals 3 on 3 vs 5 on 5, comparing these two situations has absolutely nothing to do with PP goals.
 
CantLoseWithMatthews said:
the Leafs have scored 110 goals on 98 expected goals
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What period of time does this cover? Source? If you can provide a link, I'd take a look for sure. I find this interesting because we've had trouble scoring lately and people keep saying yeah but we're playing so well, look at our expected goals so if what you're saying is true then I don't know what the hell is going on. :laugh::laugh:
 
Gary Nylund said:
What period of time does this cover? Source? If you can provide a link, I'd take a look for sure. I find this interesting because we've had trouble scoring lately and people keep saying yeah but we're playing so well, look at our expected goals so if what you're saying is true then I don't know what the hell is going on. :laugh::laugh:
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That's the beauty of fancy stats. You can literally use them any way you please, for good and bad, and they mean just as little either way.
 
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Faltorvo said:
What????

we had a very productive 3rd line in JVR/Boz/Mitch
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things that make you go hmm, I believe that guy whom "we" just had to rid of for his "undisciplined" play and willingness to roll up his sleeves and do the hard things was a 3C, whatzizname Kadri yeah that's the guy
 
Forget the more fancy stats then,

Kadri vs. Kerfoot team ranking this year when it comes to 5v5 goal differential on the ice (minimum 100 minutes played):

Goals/60 when on the ice:

Kerfoot: 2.48 (8th/13 among Leafs forwards)
Kadri: 2.82 (7th/13 among Avs forwards)

Fewest Goals Against/60 when on the ice:

Kerfoot: 1.38 (1st/13 among Leafs forwards and in the top ten NHL wide (out of 211 players))
Kadri: 2.99 (12th/13 among Avs forwards)

Goal differential:

Kerfoot: 64.33 (1st/13 among Leafs forwards)
Kadri: 48.61 (12th/13 among Avs forwards)


Goals against is the most interesting as both the Avs and Leafs have the exact same goals against/60 on the year 5v5 (2.01)

You can draw your own conclusions from this I guess. No "fancystats" allowed folks.
 
Bomber0104 said:
It's almost entirely derived from shot location, no account for the actual player taking the shot.

An Ovechkin bomb from the point, ceteris paribus, is valued the same as one from Luke Schenn.

The use of the word "danger" for the statistic is borderline laughable.

A more apt name for the stat should be "Closeness of Shot from the Net plus a few other trivial things".
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This ^.
 
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